IOOF Motivational Forces Shaping the Australian Community Bernard Salt 28 May 2014
Disclaimer These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.
Australia is a good place to do business Biggest $UStn GDP 2012 1. United States 16.245 2. China 8.227 3. Japan 5.961 4. Germany 3.428 5. France 2.613 6. United Kingdom 2.476 7. Brazil 2.253 8. Russian Fed. 2.015 9. Italy 2.015 10. India 1.859 Richest GDP > $US500bn $US GDP pc 2012 1. Norway 100,000 2. Switzerland 79,000 3. Australia 68,000 4. Sweden 56,000 5. United States 52,000 6. Canada 52,000 7. Japan 47,000 8. Netherlands 46,000 9. Germany 43,000 10. France 40,000 12. Australia 1.532 Indicators of economic wealth for leading countries between 2002 and 2012 Fastest-rising GDP > $US500bn 2002-2012 % 1. Russian Fed. 484% 2. China 466% 3. Iran 374% 4. Indonesia 349% 5. Brazil 347% 6. Australia 288% 7. Saudi Arabia 277% 8. India 255% 9. Turkey 239% 10. Norway 161% Source: Based on World Bank World Development Indicators data (updated April 2014); KPMG Demographics
We are an urban people with city-based jobs and interests Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2012 DARWIN BRISBANE PERTH SYDNEY CANBERRA Winners 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and Losers a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG ADELAIDE MELBOURNE HOBART
South Australia was recovering well to 2013 but is now facing challenges with recent job losses 30,000 Big Australia 25,000 Bicentennial Year Sydney Olympics 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration Components of population growth in South Australia between 1982 and 2013
Australia s tribal composition is shifting from an Anglo base to a fusion culture Country of Birth 2011 United Kingdom 1,101,100 New Zealand 483,400 China 319,000 India 295,400 Italy 185,400 Vietnam 185,000 Philippines 171,200 South Africa 145,700 Malaysia 116,200 Germany 108,000 2006 % change 1,038,200 6% 389,500 24% 206,600 54% 147,100 101% 199,100-7% 159,800 16% 120,500 42% 104,100 40% 92,300 26% 106,500 1% Top 10 ethnicities in Australia at the 2011 and 2006 Censuses
New acronyms for the new tribes of Australia PUMCINS. Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs NETTELs Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life KIPPERS Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings LOMBARDs Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics
Non-English speaking migrants cluster in different Adelaide suburbs 1. United Kingdom (102k) Port Noarlunga 21% Seaford 20% Maslin Beach 20% 2. Italy (20k) Hectorville 16% Glynde 13% Newton 12% 3. India (18k) Woodville Gardens 10% Kurralta Park 9% Hampstead Gardens 9% 4. China (15k) Adelaide 13% Firle 7% Kurralta Park 7% 5. Vietnam (12k) Mansfield Park 21% Woodville Gardens 17% Athol Park 17% 6. New Zealand (10k) Port Adelaide 3% St Georges 2% Old Noarlunga 2% 7. Philippines (8k) Ottoway 4% Rosewater 2% Pennington 2% 8. Malaysia (7k) Adelaide 7% Kent Town 4% Rose Park 4% 9. South Africa (5k) Stonyfell 3% Craigburn Farm 2% Hallett Cove 2% Per cent concentration of selected nationalities in Adelaide suburbs at the 2011 Census
Adelaide is a patchwork of communities Median Weekly Family Income* Medindie $2,900 Unley Park $2,740 Rose Park $2,670 Malvern $2,520 Stonyfell $2,510 Erindale $2,510 Toorak Gardens $2,500 Millswood $2,500 St Peters $2,450 Elizabeth South $690 Australian avg. $1,480 40-54 (Investors) * Lewiston 30% Crafers West 30% One Tree Hill 29% Semaphore 28% Onkaparinga Hills 28% Kersbrook 28% Meadows 27% Maslin Beach 27% Macclesfield 27% Bedford Park 10% Australian avg. 21% Belief * Newton 85% Waterloo Corner 85% Fulham Gardens 85% Kidman Park 84% Netley 83% Croydon Park 83% Findon 82% Ferryden Park 81% Hectorville 81% Sellicks Beach 51% Australian avg. 75% Per cent comparison of selected social indicators in Adelaide at the 2011 Census * Excludes suburbs with total population less than 1,000
It is lifestyle, resources and commuting that drives population growth 10.0 Ellenbrook 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Broome Karratha Perth Darwin Melbourne Brisbane Sydney Canberra Murray Bridge Adelaide South Australia Moe-Newborough Burnie-Wynyard Hobart Parkes 1.0 0.0-1.0 Ellenbrook Broome Karratha Melton Torquay Bacchus Marsh Emerald Busselton Gladstone - Tannum Sands Perth Bunbury Geraldton Highfields Yeppoon Darwin Cessnock Townsville Mackay Warragul - Drouin Port Hedland Kalgoorlie - Boulder Melbourne Albany Warwick Rockhampton Brisbane Gold Coast - Tweed Heads Sunshine Coast Cairns Bathurst Ocean Grove - Point Lonsdale Morisset - Cooranbong Sydney Ballarat Orange Bendigo Murray Bridge St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point Drysdale - Clifton Springs Canberra - Queanbeyan Mount Isa Toowoomba Albury - Wodonga Tamworth Gympie Gisborne - Macedon Geelong Nelson Bay - Corlette Victor Harbor - Goolwa Goulburn Hervey Bay Bowral - Mittagong Newcastle - Maitland Wollongong Mildura - Wentworth Dubbo Echuca - Moama Adelaide Coffs Harbour Wagga Wagga Maryborough Ballina Port Augusta Shepparton - Mooroopna Port Macquarie Warrnambool Forster - Tuncurry Kurri Kurri - Weston Central Coast Port Lincoln Sale Muswellbrook Bundaberg Mount Gambier Armidale Griffith Batemans Bay Lithgow Hobart Alice Springs Taree Wangaratta Horsham Bairnsdale Lismore Ulladulla Port Pirie Launceston Nowra - Bomaderry Ulverstone Colac Traralgon - Morwell Devonport Singleton Whyalla Broken Hill Camden Haven Parkes Burnie - Wynyard Moe - Newborough Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2013 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia
Demand for financial services product is shaped by changes in the Australian demographic profile 2003-2013: 3.4 million (19.7m to 23.1m) 2013-2023: 4.2 million (23.1m to 27.3m) 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 Kids & teenagers School fees College fund Young adults Mortgages Household formation Mature adults Financial planning Investments Active retirees Succession planning High yield products 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-0 - 4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 2003-13 2013-23 Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2013 and 10 years to 2023
Australians are dividing the lifecycle into thirds The Boomer Trajectory 92 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 2014 82 Child Teen Adult Old 1974 71 Child Adult Old 1934 63 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia
From Boomers to Xers and Ys and finally to Zeds Born 1946 1964 Today 50 68 Hierarchical Indulged their children Raised by Depression parents Sandwich generation Born 1965 1982 Today 32 49 Forgotten generation Wrong place at the wrong time No workplace guilt Angsty about Ys Born 1983 2000 Today 14 31 Special bubble-wrap Chaotic connection Entrepreneurials and dreamers Disappointed generation? Born 2001 2019 Today 0 13 Parents results-orientated Youth in straitened times Highly educated, global The pragmatists the fixers
Australia might benefit from rise of The Dubai Effect London Moscow New York Dubai Shanghai Hong Kong Singapore Adelaide Source: KPMG Demographics
Common themes in the corporate world and in the community Corporate 1. More for Less customers want you to deliver more and to pay you less 2. Competition from left field often associated with new technology 3. Globalisation new players discovering Australia Community 1. Celebration of the individual rights, entitlements minorities 2. Loss of faith in institutions church, unions, big business, politicians, not sure about public sector 3. Consequential rise of the need for transparency, accountability, apology and regulation Source: KPMG Demographics
Introducing Adelaide s bachelor hotspot Vale Park 1.56:1 Glenside 1.34:1 Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census
Connect www.bernardsalt.com.au +61 3 9288 5047 bsalt@kpmg.com.au #bernardsalt Bernard Salt Demographer linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt @bernardsalt