Marine15 What the Future Brings and How To Be Prepared Bernard Salt 3 May 2015
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How much debt is too much debt? -250 Norway (+215%) -200-150 -100-50 Australia (-17%) New Zealand (-27%) US (-81%) UK (-85%) Greece (-166%) % 0 50 100 150 37 countries GDP at least US$200bn No data for China & Russia 200 Net Debt per cent GDP 2015 for countries over US$200 billion GDP * excl those not reporting Net Debt eg China & Russia Source: Based on IMF Fiscal Monitor October 2014 Statistical Table 8 data & IMF World Economic Outlook Database October 2014 data; KPMG Demographics
Australians have always been driven by lifestyle Darwin Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014 WINNERS LOSERS Perth Adelaide Melbourne Brisbane Sydney Canberra Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Hobart
23 years of continuous economic prosperity shapes a nation and its people creates a culture of aspirational consumerism 3 2.5 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5 GST GFC -1-1.5 Whitlam Hawke Menzies Fraser Sep-1959 Mar-1960 Sep-1960 Mar-1961 Sep-1961 Mar-1962 Sep-1962 Mar-1963 Sep-1963 Mar-1964 Sep-1964 Mar-1965 Sep-1965 Mar-1966 Sep-1966 Mar-1967 Sep-1967 Mar-1968 Sep-1968 Mar-1969 Sep-1969 Mar-1970 Sep-1970 Mar-1971 Sep-1971 Mar-1972 Sep-1972 Mar-1973 Sep-1973 Mar-1974 Sep-1974 Mar-1975 Sep-1975 Mar-1976 Sep-1976 Mar-1977 Sep-1977 Mar-1978 Sep-1978 Mar-1979 Sep-1979 Mar-1980 Sep-1980 Mar-1981 Sep-1981 Mar-1982 Sep-1982 Mar-1983 Sep-1983 Mar-1984 Sep-1984 Mar-1985 Sep-1985 Mar-1986 Sep-1986 Mar-1987 Sep-1987 Mar-1988 Sep-1988 Mar-1989 Sep-1989 Mar-1990 Sep-1990 Mar-1991 Sep-1991 Mar-1992 Sep-1992 Mar-1993 Sep-1993 Mar-1994 Sep-1994 Mar-1995 Sep-1995 Mar-1996 Sep-1996 Mar-1997 Sep-1997 Mar-1998 Sep-1998 Mar-1999 Sep-1999 Mar-2000 Sep-2000 Mar-2001 Sep-2001 Mar-2002 Sep-2002 Mar-2003 Sep-2003 Mar-2004 Sep-2004 Mar-2005 Sep-2005 Mar-2006 Sep-2006 Mar-2007 Sep-2007 Mar-2008 Sep-2008 Mar-2009 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Mar-2013 Sep-2013 Mar-2014 Sep-2014 Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from September 1959 Source: ABS Catalogue 5206.0 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product; KPMG Demographics
Australia is now an Anglo-Mediterranean-Asian-Indian fusion culture 1 United Kingdom 1.0 million 6 Vietnam 223,000 2 New Zealand 617,000 7 Italy 202,000 3 China 447,000 8 South Africa 176,000 4 India 397,000 9 Malaysia 154,000 5 Philippines 225,000 10 Germany 129,000 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
New acronyms for our newest tribes PUMCINS Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs KIPPERS NETTELs Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings LOMBARDS Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics
Population hotspots cluster on the coast we should be a boating nation! 1954 1 Sydney 1,863 2 Melbourne 1,524 3 Brisbane 502 4 Adelaide 484 5 Perth 349 6 Newcastle 178 7 Hobart 95 8 Wollongong 91 9 Geelong 72 10 Launceston 49 11 Ballarat 48 12 Toowoomba 43 13 Rockhampton 41 14 Townsville 40 15 Ipswich 39 16 Bendigo 37 17 Broken Hill 31 18 Canberra 28 19 Blue Mountains 23 20 Kalgoorlie 23 2014 1 Sydney 4,841 2 Melbourne 4,440 3 Brisbane 2,275 4 Perth 2,021 5 Adelaide 1,305 6 Gold Coast - Tweed 614 7 Newcastle - Maitland 431 8 Canberra - Queanbeyan 423 9 Sunshine Coast 297 10 Wollongong 289 11 Greater Hobart 219 12 Geelong 184 13 Townsville 179 14 Cairns 147 15 Greater Darwin 140 16 Toowoomba 114 17 Ballarat 99 18 Bendigo 92 19 Albury - Wodonga 88 20 Launceston 86 2050 1 Sydney 7,688 2 Melbourne 7,670 3 Perth 4,633 4 Brisbane 4,188 5 Adelaide 1,797 6 Gold Coast - Tweed 1,225 7 Canberra - Queanbeyan 722 8 Newcastle - Maitland 588 9 Sunshine Coast 503 10 Wollongong 384 11 Townsville 340 12 Geelong 301 13 Greater Hobart 265 14 Cairns 225 15 Greater Darwin 209 16 Toowoomba 197 17 Mackay 193 18 Ballarat 181 19 Bendigo 161 20 Rockhampton 142 2014-50 2,847 3,230 2,358 2,167 492 611 291 165 206 95 121 117 86 78 69 83 94 89 73 56 Population figures expressed in 000s Source: KPMG; based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; relevant State Government planning authorities
Even small fast-growing towns tend to be coastal 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 1. Ellenbrook 2. Melton 3. Karratha 4. Gladstone-Tannum Sands 5. Busselton 6. Ocean Grove-Pt Lonsdale 7. Bunbury 8. Bacchus Marsh 9. Torquay 10. Warragul-Drouin 100. Kalgoorlie-Boulder 99. Grafton 98. Moe-Newborough 97. Colac 96. Lismore 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Melbourne Perth Sydney Brisbane Darwin Adelaide Canberra Hobart 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Ellenbrook Melton Karratha Gladstone - Tannum Sands Busselton Ocean Grove - Point Lonsdale Bunbury Bacchus Marsh Torquay Warragul - Drouin Drysdale - Clifton Springs Perth Melbourne Griffith Port Hedland Bairnsdale Albury - Wodonga Geraldton Morisset - Cooranbong Highfields Emerald St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point Sydney Sunshine Coast Albany Brisbane Darwin Ballarat Cessnock Yeppoon Gold Coast - Tweed Heads Townsville Bendigo Port Macquarie Dubbo Bathurst Gisborne - Macedon Geelong Mackay Rockhampton Hervey Bay Orange Bowral - Mittagong Nowra - Bomaderry Nelson Bay - Corlette Victor Harbor - Goolwa Cairns Wagga Wagga Muswellbrook Newcastle - Maitland Tamworth Port Lincoln Adelaide Toowoomba Shepparton - Mooroopna Canberra - Queanbeyan Central Coast Wollongong Mildura - Wentworth Ballina Murray Bridge Ulladulla Lithgow Coffs Harbour Warrnambool Maryborough Forster - Tuncurry Echuca - Moama Batemans Bay Camden Haven Hobart Mount Gambier Gympie Goulburn Kurri Kurri - Weston Broome Bundaberg Whyalla Horsham Launceston Devonport Singleton Warwick Sale Port Pirie Ulverstone Broken Hill Wangaratta Traralgon - Morwell Armidale Alice Springs Burnie - Wynyard Taree Mount Isa Port Augusta Lismore Colac Moe - Newborough Grafton Kalgoorlie - Boulder Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2014 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Water-based leisure and boating has relevance to all age groups 2004-2014: 3.6 million (19.9m to 23.5m) 2014-2024: 4.2 million (23.5m to 27.7m) Kids & teenagers 20s Families Mature adults Active retirees Surfing Canoeing/kayaking Socialising Jet skis Houseboats Fishing Prestige boats Cruises 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Water-based leisure activities are part of the Australian lifestyle Walking for exercise Fitness / Gym Jogging / Running Swimming / Diving Cycling / BMXing Golf Tennis (indoor and outdoor) Outdoor soccer Netball (Indoor and outdoor) Basketball (indoor & outdoor) Yoga Bush walking Dancing / Ballet Australian Rules football Martial arts Outdoor cricket Indoor soccer Pilates Surf sports Lawn bowls Fishing Horse riding / Equestrian activities / Polo Canoeing / Kayaking / Dragon boat Hockey (indoor and outdoor) Squash / Racquetball Surf Water Water Males Females 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Sports and physical activities participated in by Australians by sex in 2013-2014 Population ( 000) Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Australians are dividing the lifecycle into thirds 2014 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Adult Old 1974 71 1934 Child Adult Old 63 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
From Boomers to Xers and Ys and finally to Zeds BABY BOOMERS X GENERATION Y GENERATION Z GENERATION Born 1946 1964 Born 1965 1982 Born 1983 2000 Born 2001 2019 Today 50 68 Today 32 49 Today 14 31 Today 0 13 Hierarchical Forgotten generation Special bubble-wrap Parents results-oriented Indulged their kids Wrong place wrong time Chaotic connection Youth in straitened times Depression era parents No workplace guilt Entrepreneurials Highly educated, global Sandwich generation Angsty about Ys Disappointed generation? Pragmatists fixers Source: KPMG Demographics
There has been a shift in the Australian economy towards knowledge workers 6 years February 2009 up 1.4m (9.4m 10.8m) 300,000 Healthcare & Social Assistance 6 years February 2015 up 1.0m (10.8m 11.8m) 250,000 200,000 150,000 Professionals & Sciences Education Accommodation & Food 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000 Healthcare & Social Assist. Professional/ Scientific/Tech. Education & Training Accom & Food Public Admin & Safety Mining Admin & Support Other Services Rental/hiring & Real Estate Construction Arts & Recreation Transport/Postal/ Warehouse Retail Trade Financial & Insurance Electricity/Gas/ Water & Waste Info Media & Telecoms Wholesale Trade Agriculture/Forestry & Fishing Manufacturing Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
The Australian boat building and allied services industries are changing Industry 2011 % Port and Water Transport Terminal Operations 6,574 46% Includes ports & freight, water passenger terminal, ship mooring, wharf operation Scenic and Sightseeing Transport 5,469 21% Includes charter fishing boat operation, hovercraft operation, airboat operation Shipbuilding and Repair Services 6,260 14% Ship building Water Passenger Transport 1,623 4% Boat charter, lease or rental, ferry operation (boat & passenger), water taxi Marine Equipment Retailing 2,580-15% Boatbuilding and Repair Services 6,044-28% Boat retailing, boat trailers, marine accessories, outboard motors, yachts, nautical/sailing accessories Boat building (canoes, dinghies, jet boats, motorboats, sailboats, yachts) & repairs Occupation 2011 % Boat Builder and Repairer 2,691-33% Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Where are the opportunities in 2015 1 2 Australia is a first-world nation that has enjoyed an era of unparalleled prosperity... that has converted into an interest in leisure boating The Baby Boomers have passed through peak boating over the last 20 years the challenge will be to engage their Gen Y children 3 4 5 Most of the Australian population is located near water and has a predisposition to water-based leisure boating should come naturally to this community Boat building is shedding jobs in Australia and the scope for new marinas is limited demand for trailer boats and ramps must increase as must the boat importing business The challenge is to remain connected with a boating or water-based offer to all age groups and especially the 20-Something Gen Ys! Source: KPMG Demographics
Introducing the Gold Coast bachelor hot spot Surfers Paradise 1.85:1 Burleigh Golf Club Golf Club of Love Reedy Creek 2.41:1 Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics
Connect www.bernardsalt.com.au +61 3 9288 5047 bsalt@kpmg.com.au @bernardsalt Bernard Salt Demographer linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt @bernardsalt