The Sustainable Development of the Air Transport Industry 航空运输业的可持续发展 Robin Deransy Senior Expert Environment and Climate Change 17/09/2014
World Airline Route Map June 2009 traffic Source: Wiki-media 2
Europe in World Traffic 2010/2036 2036 2010 Source: ICAO/CAEP 3
Traffic growth in Europe Flights in Europe (Million) 25 20 15 10 5 IFR traffic in Europe 1960-2012 historical figures 2013-2035 forecast Annual Growth Actual Traffic Long-Term Trend before 2009 Forecast Trafic Long-Term Trend Long-Term Average Growth 5% 0-5 = 0% -5% -10% Annual Growth 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EUROCONTROL STATFOR 4
Traffic, Fuel Burn and CO 2 Emissions 2050 Traffic (AAE) Total fuel consumption (AAE) Fuel efficiency +1.5%/year (Industry) Total CO 2 emissions (AAE) Fuel efficiency +2%/year (ICAO) Industry objective: +1.5%/year Fuel Efficiency + CNG 2020+ ICAO objective: +2.0%/year Fuel Efficiency + CNG 2020+ Industry objective: +1.5%/year Fuel Efficiency & -50% CO 2 in 2050 vs. 2005 Source: Flying in 2050, Initial Report 31/10/2011, updated 10/11/2011, Académie de l Air et de l Espace (AAE, Fig. 7, p. 65) CNG = Carbon Neutral Growth 5
Getting From Here to There! Source: ICAO/CAEP 6
Technology - Reduction at Source A (Very) Rough Guide to the 2050 Fleet Aircraft Status 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 B737 B737NG B737Max B747-400 B747-8 B777 B777X B787 A320 A320Neo A330 A350 A380 7
ATM s Contribution to Global CO 2 Emissions Source: CANSO 8
Operational Measures From this..to this Global Emissions 9 9
ATM concepts mitigation environmental impacts 10 Green trajectory Source: SESAR/Airbus 10
Airport Collaborative Decision Making Improve predictability Improve on-time performance Reduce ground movement costs Optimise use of infrastructure & reduce congestion Reduce ATFM slot wastage Flexible pre-departure planning Reduce apron & taxiway congestion
A-CDM Implementation Status A-CDM Airport A-CDM 2014 OSL ARN HEL A-CDM 2015 DUB MAN BHX LTN LHR AMS DUS HAM CPH SXF WAW KBP Ongoing Initial phase LGW CDG BRU FRA STR MUC PRG ORY GVA ZRH LYS MXP TLS LIN VCE VIE LJU BUD LIS MAD BCN FCO SOF IST PMI ATH HER RHO
CDO Continuous Descent Approach CDO is an operation, enabled by airspace design, procedure design and ATC facilitation, in which an arriving aircraft descends continuously, to the greatest extent possible, by employing minimum engine thrust, ideally in a low drag configuration, prior to the final approach fix. AIRCRAFT TYPE AVERAGE FUEL BURN SAVINGS (KG) FROM FL210 TIME SAVINGS (MIN) TO DESCEND FROM FL210 A320 85 KG 13% (2 min) A340 258 KG 14% (2,9 min) A340-600 261 KG 11% (2 min) 13
Environmental policies Alternative fuels Air navigation services Airlines/ Manufacturers CO 2 emissions (kg) Actual fuel burn (kg) Idle fuel burn (kg) (optimum trajectory) Available tonne kilometre (ATK) Revenue tonne kilometre (RTK) Net carbon content ANS fuel efficiency Aircraft fuel efficiency 94% Load factor Horizontal en route profile Vertical en-route profile Terminal holdings Taxi phase Combination of policy tools over time CO 2 efficiency (kg)/rtk cumulative % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <1h <2h <3h <4h <5h <6h <7h Flight duration in hours Flights Fuel Burn <8h <9h 12% of flights >3 hours, burn 60% of fuel 20% of flights <1 hour, burn 4% of fuel <10h Source: PRC 14
Measuring the Horizontal En-Route Profile Horizontal Flight (in)efficiency = Extra distance / Reference distance (expressed as %) KEP = Horizontal Flight Efficiency of route on Last Filed Flight Plan (~ planned fuel consumption) KEA = Horizontal Flight Efficiency of actual (flown) trajectory (~ actual fuel consumption) KEP Indicator Last Filed FPL KEA Indicator Length of Trajectory Reference distance Extra distance Shortest Available Route Shortest Route Awareness and Choice Route Network Design City pair distance Planning (Great circle distance) Based on information known in advance Route & Airspace Availability Business need: Get from A to B = direct route Actual Trajectory Difference due to planning limitations ATC Separation Fragmentation Wind-optimum Cost-optimum Tactical decisions based on updated information requires surveillance data Extra distance Reference distance Source: PRC 15
Environmental performance route extension (%) 6.0 5.42 5.38 5.18 5.15 5.11 5.0 Filed flight plan 4.0 3.0 3.29 Actual flown 3.17 3.12 2.0trajectory 1.0 ENVIRONMENT: Performance targets on en route flight efficiency within Single European Sky (SES) scheme 0.0 Source: PRU analysis 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Target RP1 Targets RP2 Flight efficiency first measured in 2006: continuous improvement since then Good routing efficiency of ANS ( 3%) compared to other transport modes Yet significant economic impact (fuel burn, flight time) Impossible to reach 0% with full civil-military traffic load SES targets on Environment set for 2014 (FPL), 2019 (Actual, FPL) Improved flight-efficiency (from 3.29% in 2011 to 2.6% in 2019: SES target) compensates for air traffic growth up to 26% until 2019 Carbon-neutral growth of aviation (due in 2020) already being met as far as European ANS is concerned! Source: PRC 16
ENV Impact Assessment Models & Tools used for: AEM Policy Advanced Options Emissions assessments Model Regulatory Impact Assessments ALAQS Airport Local Air Quality Studies Assessment of Current and Future operations STAPES Assessments SysTem for AirPort of SESAR noise operational Exposure concepts Studies FP projects 17
IMPACT Noise and Emissions in the cloud Source: EUROCONTROL EEC 18
Collaborative Environmental Management Source: EUROCONTROL 19
Leading-edge research REACT4-C, FORUM-AE 20
robin.deransy@eurocontrol.int +33 1 69 88 74 78 21