Don t believe everything you read in the media about the Vietnam Property Market Presented by: Mr. Marc Townsend, Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam HO CHI MINH CITY 19th January 2017 1 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
REAL ESTATE DASHBOARD ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current BANKING & FINANCE 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current VN-Index 576.1 545.3 652.2 682.3 663.5 681.3 CPI (%) y-o-y 1.8 0.6 1.7 1.9 4.5 4.7 USD/VND (inter-bank) 21,458 21,881 21,862 22,156 22,156 22,161 Trade balance (US$, bil) Retail & services Turnover (VND, tril) (1.1) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3) 273.3 294.7 295.8 294.4 302.9 320.2 Local gold (VND mil/tael) 35.4 32.8 36.8 35.8 36.1 36.7 Lending Rate (%)* 8.8% 7.6% 7.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.4% Deposit rate (%)** (1-year term) 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.6% Source: GSO, Dec, 2016 Source: GSO, SBV, SJC & HSX, Jan, 2017 REAL ESTATE INDEX 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current NEW LAUNCHES 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current Real Estate Holding & Development Listed Companies 48.60 45.22 51.00 47.24 45.63 46.55 HCMC New launches (unit) 70,902 37,278 21,088 11,926 6,272 3,957 Real Estate Services Listed Companies 52.8 41.3 28.3 30.89 26.98 27.06 HN New launches (unit) 45,921 25,485 17,460 10,409 5,712 2,712 Source: Stockbiz, Jan 2017 Source: CBRE, Dec 2016 (*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, and only applicable for home loan. However, the back-dated numbers were the average rate announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks. The average lending rate is for reference only. (**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate from a sample comprised of ten banks, in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be tracked backwards. 2 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
Percentage change Percentage change BCI NUMBERS Projects under construction, y-o-y change All future projects (2016 2030), y-o-y change 300% 200% 2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015 300% 200% 2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015 100% 100% 0% 0% -100% HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai Phong -100% HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai Phong Projects Under Construction HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang Vung Tau Hai Phong All Future Projects (2017-2030) HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Nha Trang Vung Tau Hai Phong Office 142 161 27 20 13 16 29 Retail 100 81 47 2 14 6 8 Office 253 247 53 33 20 36 47 Retail 164 132 66 5 22 11 11 Hospitality and SA 35 16 55 4 35 10 3 Hospitality and SA 60 31 76 4 56 17 6 Residential 286 105 22 8 23 13 8 Total 563 363 151 34 85 45 48 Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. Residential 404 188 42 13 13 22 10 Total 881 598 237 55 111 86 74 Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. 3 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Challenges from drought, flood and others More than 200 tons of died fish collected in Westlake, Hanoi 4 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
URBAN MIGRATION AND ITS NET EFFECT 159,501 Passenger Cars Sold in 2016 (up 36% y-o-y) 3,121,023 Motorbikes Sold in 2016 (up 9.5% y-o-y) 8,000 motorbikes/day 5 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
HCMC METRO LINES PLAN Line Route Length THANH XUAN HIEP BINH PHUOC SUOI TIEN 1 Ben Thanh Suoi Tien 19.7 km 2 An Suong Cat Lai 11.3 km 3 Tan Kien Hiep Binh Phuoc 31.9km AN SUONG 4 1 4 Nguyen Van Linh Thanh Xuan 41.2 km 2 3 5 Saigon Bridge Can Giuoc Coach Station 23.4 km BA QUEO 6 Ba Queo Phu Lam Intersection 6.4 km SAI GON BRIDGE BEN THANH HUB 6 2 CAT LAI Current situation PHU LAM 3 5 NGUYEN VAN LINH Metro Line no. 1 is under construction to be completed by 2018. Metro Line no. 2 is now pending Other lines are still calling for investments. TAN KIEN CAN GIUOC Under Construction Metro Lines Future Plan Funding Process The city also plans three monorail routes totaling 37km by 2030. Under Planning Metro Lines 6 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
MEANWHILE IN BANGKOK 7 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Arrivals (Million persons) Growth Rate (%) HOSPITALITY MARKET Increasing tourist arrivals, new international flights open Number of Tourist Arrivals in 2016 (millions) 10 8 6 4 2 40% 20% 0% -20% Lead the top guest arrivals (2.7 mil arrivals in 2016) 0-40% International arrival Growth rate Tourists to Ba Na Hill (Da Nang) in 2016 90% Local 4% South Korean 3% Chinese 3% Other countries (2 million visits in total) 8 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
New launch supply (units) RESIDENTIAL MARKET Oversupply concern Hot launches near Thu Thiem New launch supply (units) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2015 2016 Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016 Foreign buyers at CBRE 147 deals closed from July 2015 up to December 2016 Some projects in Thao Dien already reached the 30% threshold of foreign buyers Main groups of foreign buyers in 2016: Singapore: 18% Japan/Hong Kong/Europe: 16% each 9 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
DISRUPTIVE TECH & ENTRENEURSHIP PropTech, RETech, Co-working space 10 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
THE MAIN NEW FOCUSES ANYTHING BUT TPP Forget TPP, The Focus is now on RCEP 11 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
THE ONE BIG MANUFACTURER Top FDI Investors, US$ million, 2016 Taiwan China Singapore Japan South Korea 1,860 1,875 2,419 2,590 7,036 Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment. 9.3% y-o-y US$ 36.4 billion 12 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
THAT ONE BIG DEVELOPER 13 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
HCMC 20 GOLDEN SITES 2 completed, 4 under construction 16 SJC 14 12 VINHOMES GOLDEN RIVER 8 13 4 17 6 5 7 VINCOM CENTER DONG KHOI 2 19 18 1 3 20 SAIGON MELINH TOWER 9 15 11 THE SPIRIT OF SAIGON UNION SQUARE 14 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM Source: CBRE Vietnam.
WALKABOUT IN HCMC Busy Construction Activity in District 1 and District 3 Only 2 Grade A 45 projects found on 24 streets in District 3 3 Others 10 Unknown 2 Hotels 8 Private Use 2 SAs 2 Residential 18 Offices 95 projects found on 132 streets in District 1 15 Cleared Sites 7 Hotels 33 Offices 2 Retail 5 Public Projects 6 Residential 15 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
Food & Drug Stores Telecommunications Apparel Transportation Chemical Technology Energy Engineering & Construction Household products Business Service Motor Vehicles & Parts Retailing Wholesalers Finance Health Care Industrials Food, Beverages & Tobacco Hotels, Restaurants & Aeorospaces & Defense Materials Media No. of companies FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 Fortune Companies in Vietnam 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 218 companies in 2015 230 companies in 2016 2015 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam. 16 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
Sydney Bangalore Melbourne Bangkok Guangzhou Gurgaon Auckland Tokyo Brisbane Mumbai Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City Taipei Delhi Seoul Hong Kong Shanghai Shenzhen Perth Beijing Jakarta Singapore Grade A Effective Rental Growth (%) APAC OFFICE RENTAL Weaker rental growth is expected Shanghai Shenzhen Auckland Bangkok Taipei Tokyo Beijing Hong Kong New Delhi Hanoi Perth Seoul Singapore Brisbane Guangzhou Ho Chi Minh City Mumbai Bangalore Melbourne Sydney Tenant - Driven Landlord Driven 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 Bottoming Out Peaking 2016F 2017F Source: CBRE Research, January 2017. Source: CBRE Research, December 2016. 17 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
Perth Hanoi Brisbane Tokyo Auckland Ho Chi Minh City Bangkok Melbourne Seoul Sydney Mumbai Kuala Lumpur Taipei Beijing Shanghai New Delhi Guangzhou Bangalore Singapore Shenzhen Hong Kong Office Yield Spread APAC CAPITAL MARKET Yield spread (Office vs. 10-year Gov Bond) Continues at Low levels 8% 6% Yield spread narrowed to 100 bps or below 4% 2% Ten Year High 0% -2% 2017F Ten Year Low -4% Source: CBRE Research, December 2016. 18 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
A YEAR OF M&A Hanoi International Centre Keppel Land Ltd. VinaCapital @ US$ 13.8 mil. Office Source: RCA. 19 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
TOP 10 REAL ESTATE STORIES Growing Hospitality Market Issuance of 06/2016/NHNN Circular The end of 30.000 billion VND package Public announcement of mortgaged projects Name projects that are unqualified for Fire Safety Active M&A market Trend of green in buildings development The growth of affordable segment Renovation of old apartments The entrance of non-real estate players 20 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS CANCHAM VIETNAM
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