ESPO: Euro Cruise Port Overview 2011 John Tercek Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. Sea Trade Europe 2010
Overview Quick Industry Overview Annual RCCL update RCL s Deployment e Trends European Routes European Ports
Cruise Industry Overview
Industry Snapshot 18.3 million worldwide guests in 2010 $18 billion est Industry Gross revenue 7.2% average annual passenger growth rate since 1990 2 278 ships with approximately 395k berths in 2010 16 new vessel deliveries 2011-2012 2012 1 Source: Seatrade Cruise Review June 2010. 2 Source: CLIA 2010 Cruise Market Overview 3 Source: Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. 2009 Annual Report
Industry Trends Ships are getting bigger, which increases weekly carrying capacity and efficiencies; but, places requirements on port infrastructure to adequately support calls 12 out of 16 ships scheduled for delivery through 2012 will exceed 100,000 gross tons Only 4 ships in 2013; slowdown in new-buildling cycle due to high Euro- $ & fleet consolidation Recent market expansion: Mediterranean, Australia & Brazil Diversification current cycle: redeployment of more ships out of the Caribbean & Alaska Targeting non-us source markets for customers; increasingly taking the ships to the source markets.
Cruise Industry World Deployment 2010 Operating Theater % Capacity million bed days Caribbean 35% 40.9 Mediterranean 25% 29.5 Baltic & UK 9% 10.11 Asia/Australia/India 10% 11.8 Mexico Pacific/Hawaii 6% 7.2 Alaska 6 % 7.2 South America 5% 5.5 Bermuda/New England 3% 3.1
Cruise Industry World Deployment 2010 Operating Theater % Capacity million bed days Caribbean 35% 40.9 Mediterranean 25% 29.5 Baltic & UK 9% 10.11 Asia/Australia/India 10% 11.8 Mexico Pacific/Hawaii 6% 7.2 Alaska 6 % 7.2 South America 5% 5.5 Bermuda/New England 3% 3.1
Populations of Primary Cruise Source Markets & Potential Country Total Population 3% penetration USA 303.8 millions 9.2 millions UK 60.9 18 1.8 Canada 33.2 1.0 Germany 82.3 2.4 Italy 58.1 1.7 Spain 40.4 1.2 Scandinavia 19.1 630,000 (Norway, Denmark & Sweden) Australia 21 700,000000 Totals 618.8 18.4 million
Populations of Current Primary Source Markets & Potential Country Total Population 3% penetration USA 303.8 millions 9.2 millions UK 60.9 18 1.8 Canada 33.2 1.0 Germany 82.3 2.4 Italy 58.1 1.7 Spain 40.4 1.2 Scandinavia 19.1 630,000 (Norway, Denmark & Sweden) Australia 21 700,000000 Totals 618.8 18.4 million
World Cruise Actual Source Markets 2008 2009 North America 10,352 10,459 UK 1,477 1,533 Continental Europe 2,945 3,409 Asia (excluding Japan) 850 890 Japan 195 195 Australia 342 370 Latin America 940 984 Total 17,101 17,840 Year-on-year increases 4.1% 4.3% % Pen 3.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 02% 0.2%
World Cruise Actual Source Markets 2008 2009 North America 10,352 10,459 UK 1,477 1,533 Continental Europe 2,945 3,409 Asia (excluding Japan) 850 890 Japan 195 195 Australia 342 370 Latin America 940 984 Total 17,101 17,840 Year-on-year increases 4.1% 4.3% % Pen 3.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 02% 0.2%
Populations of Potential Source Markets Country Total Population 0.5% potential Russia 140.7 millions 700,000 China 1.3 billion 5.6 million India 1.1 billion 5.5 million Brazil 196.3 million 950,000 Japan 127.3 650,000 Mexico 110 550,000 Turkey 71.9 350,000 Indonesia 238 1.2 million Malaysia 25.3 126,000 Totals 3.33 billions 16.5 million
Strong Industry Fundamentals Steady Long-term industry growth Great vacation product & Value for Money Product innovation: Regular new ships Low penetration of vacation market (Sawgrass Mills shopping mall in Fort Lauderdale receives 18 million annually) Favorable demographics: World is becoming middle class Consolidated industry: Only 4 big cruise companies are 96% Ability to absorb new capacity: supply driven business Proven resilience: post 9/11; post 2009 recession
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 2nd largest cruise company. 24% of worldwide cruise volume. 42 ships, 6 brands. 425 destinations. 78,650 berth capacity. 4.3 million total passengers in 2010. 53,650 employees. Raising i the Bar Oasis of the Seas.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Royal Caribbean International Celebrity Cruises Azamara Cruises Pullmantur, S.A. CDF Croisieres de France TUI Cruises Brands
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Corporate Financial Highlights (millions) 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total Pax 3,500 3,600 3,900 4,000 3,900 4,300 Gross $4,903 $5,230 $6,150 $6,530 $5,900 $6,800 Revenue Net $716 $634 $603 $574 $162 $350 Income Return on 10% 9.0% 8.6% 8.2% 2.3% 5.0% SH Equity est. $7 billion
RCL s Deployment Trends
Drivers of Growth into new Destinations & Itinerary Routes Repeat Customers Seeking New Experiences Looking for Fuel-Efficient Routes: 17 knots x 14 hours= 200 nautical miles is ideal Sourcing New Customers from New Source Countries (Australia, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey) RCCL New Ship Displacement Factor
RCL Summer Deployment 2004 2010 2011 Mediterranean 6 ships 15 ships 21 ships Caribbean 10 ships 9 ships 8 ships Alaska 6 ships 5 ships 5 ships Baltic 3 ships 4 ships 4 ships Bermuda/New England 2 ships 3 ships 3 ships Asia/Australia 1 ship 1 ship Mexico (Pacific) 1 ship Total 27 ships 39 ships 42 ships
RCL Summer Deployment 2004 2010 2011 Mediterranean 6 ships 15 ships 21 ships Caribbean 10 ships 9 ships 8 ships Alaska 6 ships 5 ships 5 ships Baltic 3 ships 4 ships 4 ships Bermuda/New England 2 ships 3 ships 3 ships Asia/Australia 1 ship 1 ship Mexico (Pacific) 1 ship Total 27 ships 39 ships 42 ships
RCL Winter Deployment 2004 2010 2011 Caribbean 22 ships 23 ships 23 ships South America 1 ship 8 ships 9 ships Asia/Australia 3 ships 4 ships Med & Canaries 2 ships 3 ships Middle East 1 ship 1 ship Mexico (Pacific) 3 ships 1 ship 1 ship Hawaii-California 1 ship 1 ship 1 ship Total 27 ships 39 ships 42 ships
RCL Winter Deployment 2004 2010 2011 Caribbean 22 ships 23 ships 23 ships South America 1 ship 8 ships 9 ships Asia/Australia 3 ships 4 ships Med & Canaries 2 ships 3 ships Middle East 1 ship 1 ship Mexico (Pacific) 3 ships 1 ship 1 ship Hawaii-California 1 ship 1 ship 1 ship Total 27 ships 39 ships 42 ships
European Cruise Overview Planning Parameters and. Limitations:
Where Do We Cruise? Customer Interest: We take our Customers where they think they want to go Customer Sourcing / Airlift / Homeports Weather & Seasonality: Northern / Southern Hemispheres Time / Speed / Distance Formula: 200 nautical miles /night Supportive Host Government Policies Safety & Security
Where Do We Cruise? Caveat, Disclosure and Apologies: This presentation is considering the possibilities for larger ships (2,000+ pax) targeted at mass middle class market There are many more niche, boutique, adventure, upscale, downscale targeted cruise offerings than can be addressed in a 15 minute presentation
One Technical Slide
Freedom of the Seas Dimensions & Characteristics Tonnage Double Occupancy Maximum Required Draft Maximum Breadth (GRT) Capacity Length Air Draft 160,000 3,643 4,375 339 10.5 63.45 55.9 Tons Guests Guests Meters Meters Meters Meters
Baltic Umea Bay of Bothnia Belem Fortaleza Natal Oslo Stockholm Helsinki Tallinn Recife St. Petersburg Salvador S to c Riga
Market Sector: BALTIC Baltic Pros Customer Interest: Plenty of Destinations & St. Petersburg Sourcing /Airlift Plenty of Homeports Time / Speed / Distance Ports are close together Safety & Security
Market Sector: BALTIC Baltic Pros Customer Interest: Plenty of Destinations & St. Petersburg Sourcing /Airlift Plenty of Homeports Time / Speed / Distance Ports are close together Safety & Security Baltic Cons Weather & Seasonality: Short Season 16 weeks Government Policies: Expensive Ports!! Competition: Upscale Ferries Local Source Market: Been there, done that..
Scandinavia & Great Britain Honningsvag Reykjavik Molde Alesund Olden Geiranger Tromso Dublin Glasgow Cork Harwich Southampton Dover Bergen Oslo Copenhagen Kiel Amsterdam Bruges Helsinki Stockholm Warnemunde Gdansk St. Petersburg Tallinn Cherbourg
Market Sector: SCANDANAVIA & GB Scan/GB Pros Customer Interest: Traditional Fjords; Ireland, Scotland. Iceland Sourcing /Airlift: Heathrow! Safety & Security
Market Sector: SCANDANAVIA & GB Scan/GB Pros Customer Interest: Traditional Fjords; Ireland, Scotland. Iceland Sourcing /Airlift: Heathrow! Scan/GB Cons Weather & Seasonality: Shorter Season 12 weeks T/S/D: some long hauls: Glasgow-Bergen Local Source Market: Brits & Scans want sun! Safety & Security
Western Europe Atlantic & West Mediterranean Southampton Cherbourg Amsterdam Le Havre Madeira Lisbon La Coruña Vigo Malaga Bilbao, Spain Marseille; Nice Toulon Barcelona Ajaccio Mallorca Cartagena Tenerife Gibraltar Casablanca Tangier; Ceuta Lanzarote Gran Canaria Cagliari Tunis Livorno Rome Naples Palermo
Market Sector: WESTERN EUROPE W.E. Pros Customer Interest: Brits/Scans/Germans love sun Americans love Spain & Italy Lots of Destinations: Marquee & Hidden Gems Seasonality: 40-52 weeks Benign Gov'ts & Policies Sourcing /Airlift: Heathrow! Barcelona! Mallorca! Malaga! Fiumicino!
Market Sector: WESTERN EUROPE W.E. Pros Customer Interest: Brits/Scans/Germans love sun Americans love Spain & Italy Lots of Destinations: Marquee & Hidden Gems Seasonality: 40-52 weeks Benign Gov'ts & Policies Sourcing /Airlift: Heathrow! Barcelona! Mallorca! Malaga! W.E. Cons Customers: Not much interest from Americans in East tatlanticti T/S/D: some long hauls: Southampton-Sardinia
Mediterranean French Ports Barcelona, Spain Valencia, Spain Malaga, Spain Tangiers; Ceuta Algiers Venice, Italy Ravenna, Italy Livorno Dubrovnik, Croatia Civitavecchia; Napoli Ajaccio, Corsica Cagliari Tunis Palermo, Italy Valletta, Malta Bari Italy Catania Athens Greek Islands Heraklion Istanbul, Turkey Kusadasi Bodrum, Turkey Rhodes Larnaca Haifa Ashdod Alexandria Port Said Sharm ell Sheik
RCL Summer Med Deployment: wow! 2004 2010 2011 Mediterranean 6 ships 15 ships 21 ships Caribbean 10 ships 9 ships 8 ships Alaska 6 ships 5 ships 5 ships Baltic 3 ships 4 ships 4 ships Bermuda/New England 2 ships 3 ships 3 ships Asia/Australia 1 ship 1 ship Mexico (Pacific) 1 ship Total 27 ships 39 ships 42 ships
Market Sector: MEDITERRANEAN Med Pros Customer Interest: HUGE Lots of Destinations Seasonality: 40-52 weeks Supportive Gov'ts & Policies Sourcing /Airlift/ Homeports: Barcelona! Civitavecchia! Venice! Malta! Savona! Napoli..
Market Sector: MEDITERRANEAN Med Pros Customer Interest: HUGE Lots of Destinations Seasonality: 40-52 weeks Supportive Gov'ts & Policies Sourcing /Airlift/ Homeports: Barcelona! Civitavecchia! Venice! Malta! Savona! Napoli.. Med Cons Operations: Some ports are getting crowded Middle East Revolution: south Med may be a challenge in near term
Mediterranean: No Fly Zone French Ports Barcelona, Spain Valencia, Spain Malaga, Spain Tangiers; Ceuta Algiers Venice, Italy Ravenna, Italy Livorno Dubrovnik, Croatia Civitavecchia; Napoli Ajaccio, France Cagliari Tunis Ceuta 800,000 Palermo, Italy Valletta, Malta Bari Italy Catania Athens Greek Islands Heraklion Istanbul, Turkey Kusadasi Bodrum, Turkey Rhodes Larnaca Haifa Ashdod Alexandria 300,000 Port Said Sharm ell Sheik
Black Sea Ports Odessa, Ukraine Sevastopol, Ukraine Constanta, Romania Yalta, Ukraine Varna, Bulgaria Sochi, Russia Istanbul, Turkey Sinop, Turkey Batumi, Georgia
Market Sector: BLACK SEA B.S. Pros Interesting Small Destination Cities for Day Visits (like Baltic) Supportive Gov'ts & Policies T/S/D: good operating circuit Potential local source markets: Turkey, Russia, Ukraine
Market Sector: BLACK SEA B.S. Pros Interesting Small Destination Cities for Day Visits (like Baltic) Supportive Gov'ts & Policies T/S/D: good operating circuit Potential local source markets: Turkey, Russia, Ukraine B.S. Cons Customer Interest? Undiscovered & Unknown to Americans & Western Euros Seasonality: 16 weeks Sourcing /Airlift/ Homeports Challenge: Istanbul or Athens logical homeports Technical Limits of Bosporus
Mediterranean Home/Base Ports Marseille, France Barcelona, Spain Valencia, Spain Malaga, Spain Tangiers; Ceuta Venice, Italy Savona, Italy Civitavecchia; Ajaccio, France Bari Italy Palma Mallorca Napoli Cagliari Palermo, Italy Algiers Tunis Valletta, Malta Catania Dubrovnik, Croatia Kotor, Montenegro Athens Greek Islands Heraklion Istanbul, Turkey Kusadasi Bodrum, Turkey Rhodes Larnaca Haifa Ashdod Alexandria Port Said Sharm ell Sheik
Mediterranean 7 day Routes Villefranche Barcelona, Spain Palma Mallorca Venice, Italy Savona Livorno Dubrovnik, Croatia Civitavecchia; Bari Italy Napoli Athens Istanbul, Turkey Kusadasi Tunis Valletta, Malta Catania Santorini Heraklion, Crete Limissol, Cyprus Alexandria, Egypt
Mediterranean 7 & 14 day Routes Villefranche Barcelona, Spain Palma Mallorca Venice, Italy Savona Livorno Civitavecchia; Bari Italy Napoli Dubrovnik, Croatia Athens Istanbul, Turkey Kusadasi Tunis Valletta, Malta Catania Santorini Mykynos Limissol, Cyprus Alexandria, Egypt
Mediterranean Challenging Ports 500,000 Villefranche Barcelona, Spain Venice, Italy 800,000 Livorno, Italy Civitavecchia; 2,500,000 Bari Italy Napoli 1,300,000 1,000,000 Dubrovnik, Croatia Athens Istanbul, Turkey Kusadasi Tunis 800,000000 Valletta, Malta Greek Islands Santorini 700,000
SELECT MEDITERRANEAN PORT VOLUMES Port 2001 2005 2011 est Barcelona 650,000 1,225,000 2,500,000 Livorno 250,000 460,000 820,000 Civitavecchia 470,000 990,000 2,450,000 Venice 520,000000 820,000000 1,800,000 000 Dubrovnik 215,000 510,000 1,050,000 Tunis 230,000 560,000 850,000 Cyprus 560,000 380,000 400,000
Biggest Issues Facing Continued Growth in European Cruise Markets EU Economic Stability & USA Economic Recovery Tourism-Friendly Resolution of Middle East & Africa Turmoil Stabilization of Fuel prices Sourcing New Customers from New Source Countries (Russia, Eastern Europe, Turkey) Infrastructure Expansion & Upgrade Increasing Regulation and Port Expenses in Europe
ESPO Euro Cruise Overview 2011 John Tercek Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. Sea Trade Europe 2010