Narjess Teyssier ICAO Chief Economic Analysis & Policy Section Montréal 29 September 2010
Content Data Trends Forecasts Impact on stakeholders
Monitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecasts MARKET ANALYSES FORECASTING STATISTICS!"#"$$#
Regional traffic overview for 2009 North America Traffic: -3.9% Capacity: -4.7% Load Factor: +0.7 Pt Latin America Traffic: 0.9% Capacity: 2.2% Load Factor: -0.9 Pt Europe Traffic: -3.9% Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: +0.3 Pt Middle East Traffic: 9.1% Capacity: 11.9% Load Factor: -1.9 Pt Asia Pacific Traffic: -0.2% Capacity: -0.9% Load Factor: +0.6 Pt World Traffic: -2.0% Capacity: -2.2% Load Factor: +0.2 Pt Africa Traffic: -3.9% Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: -0.7 Pt
Low Cost Carriers progression B i l T l r i a o f n f s i c R P K 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500!" 0 1989 1990 LCCs Non Scheduled carriers Legacy carriers 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Market shares* achieved International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic International passenger traffic** Domestic passenger traffic** Africa * North America 3% Africa * 17% 1% Asia Pacific 30% Middle East 10% Latin America 4% Asia Pacific 25% Europe 41% North America 55% Middle East 1% Europe 8% Latin America 5% * Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region **Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometre
Traffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impact World North America Middle East Latin America Europe Asia-Pacific Africa Regional traffic* growth forecasts 4.3% Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 RPKs Growth in % *Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs Source: ICAO 1999-2009 average growth
Forecasting : basis of any effective planning ""%%$ & '()*! +,,-.$/"%"$! %#/%" 0"$ $""$!"!! "#1!&"$%!!$$%"$$!&!"#$/2/""%"$ &/%(#"$ $! &+,,""%&!"!%"%"$$$# "#" #(!#%& &!%!! $&&$#"3
Air travel demand drivers State of global economy (GDP growth) Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields) Traffic & yield growth in % Traffic growth Real GDP growth Sep 2010 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Real Yield growth 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP growth in % Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight
Air transport vs Economic growth 1 9 7 9 : In d e x B a s e 1 0 0 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight World Real GDP World Passenger traffic World Cargo traffic 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Factors promoting air traffic growth &!$ % #!$! "
ICAN: ICAO forum for liberalization
Air transport conducted under liberal arrangements ' (( ) 41!" 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Number of frequencies Number of country-pair routes!& 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%!" 0% 1995 1999 2004 2009 0%
Liberalization: a necessary frame for Low Cost Carriers development Number of LCCs : 13 Deregulation : 1978 Network carriers 79% LCCs 21% Number of LCCs : 10 Deregulation : in progress Network carriers 76% LCCs 24% Network carriers 79% LCCs 21% Number of LCCs : 48 Network carriers 86% LCCs 14% Deregulation : 1987-1997 Number of LCCs : 33 Network carriers 91% LCCs 9% Deregulation : accelerating Number of LCCs (Africa and Middle East) : 10 Deregulation : uneven Source: ICAO LCCs development by region
Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines mergers and acquisitions Most well-known Non Aligned airlines 3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic
The new ICAO forecasting methodology * "+ (,, ( " -, "(. /" " ) (!(! ) " "("(.!. " 0. ( "( ) ("( (. 1(!. "2 ( 0) " ", 3.( 3. 2 )( 45 6 + 6 7 " 8 (( " ' 9:; )! (( " ( 3(( $, (! 0( " )". <! 1 2.+ #, ( <
Emerging markets lead the recovery Favoring the expansion of some regional air travel markets Real GDP growth change in % Economic Stimulus plan China: 586 B$ India: 8.1 B$ China & India lead Emerging Markets and the BRIC in Real GDP growth Source: IHS Global Insight, Sep 2010 *BRIC: Brazil Russia India China Real GDP growth change in %
Top ten traffic flows in 2030 20-Year Growth % % World RPKs 2.6% 15.0% 7.9% 10.7% 4.3% 7.4% 2.6% 5.7% 6.7% 4.1% 5.3% 3.6% 7.8% 3.5% 5.0% 3.3% 5.9% 3.1% 9.0% 2.9%
Long-term traffic forecast results Forecasts 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 History High Scenario Most Likely scenario = Low scenario 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 World traffic in Billion RPKs Source: ICAO =
Regional* passenger traffic forecasts Pax Traffic International (%) Domestic (%) Total (%) Region Growth Share Growth Share 2010-2030 2030 2010-2030 2030 North America 3.9 14 2.6 40 Europe 4.3 37 1.7 5 Asia/Pacific 5.7 32 7.1 47 Latin America 6.1 5 5.3 6 Africa 4.7 3 4.8 1 Middle East 5.2 9 4.8 1 WORLD 4.8 100 4.4 100 Growth Share 2010-2030 2030 3 23 4.1 25 6.3 38 5.8 5.5 4.7 2.5 5.2 6 4.7 100 *Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs growth and market shares
Aircraft movements forecast methodology Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating capacities and average distance stage length : Available seat-kilometres = Aircraft-kilometres = Revenue passengerkilometres Average load factor Available seatkilometres Average aircraft seating capacity Aircraft-kilometres Aircraft movements = Average stage length
2030 Aircraft movements forecast World total aircraft movements in 2030: 51.708 Africa, 2.0% North America, 32.3% Asia Pacific, 31.7% Middle East, 2.9% Latin America, 7.7% Europe, 23.3%
Strong backlog for the major aircraft manufacturers 3000 Orders and Deliveries of Boeing and Airbus, 1975-2009 2871 N u m b e r o f A irc ra ft 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1975 1977 715 1979 Source: aircraft manufacturers Deliveries 1981 1983 1473 Orders 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 443 1095 2003 2005 2007 2009 Deliveries Forecasts 979 Need to monitor closely any potential impact on Safety as 60% of aircraft replacement are for growth 452 2011 2013 2015
Consolidating various ICAO data sources 2008 State Letter requesting current and projected number of Pilots, Mechanics and Air Traffic controllers, plus corresponding Training Capacities SAAQ of ICAOs Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, qualifications and training ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form D Fleet and Personnel Final consolidated results obtained through reconciliation of discrepancies and variances Check accuracy of consolidated reported data through the personnel/fleet ratio methodology *SAAQ: State Aviation Activity Questionnaire
2010 Licensed aviation personnel population NORTH AMERICA ICAO Pilots 290211 Mechanics 355009 ATCOs 19735 EUROPE ICAO Pilots 85306 Mechanics 85183 ATCOs 27401 MIDDLE EAST ICAO Pilots 9202 Mechanics 14866 ATCOs 1996 ASIA PACIFIC ICAO Pilots 50344 Mechanics 78609 ATCOs 14081 Source: ICAO LATIN AMERICA ICAO Pilots 24065 Mechanics 25353 ATCOs 2047 AFRICA ICAO Pilots 4258 Mechanics 21906 ATCOs 1764 WORLD ICAO Pilots 463386 Mechanics 580926 ATCOs 67024 80% of the States have a mandatory retirement age of 65 years for pilots
Future pilots requirements* vs training capacities Most likely scenario North America Pilots Needs Capacity ICAO 10 449 27 655 Europe Pilots Capacity ICAO 15 552 7 955 Middle East Pilots Capacity ICAO 2 458 860 Latin America Pilots capacity ICAO 6 250 1 945 Africa Pilots Capacity ICAO 3 814 1 010 Asia / Pacific Pilots Capacity ICAO 13 983 4 935 Pilots World Capacity Source: ICAO preliminary figures ICAO 52 506 44 360 *Estimate of average annual needs for 2010 to 2030 period based on various world fleet categories;: Regional and business jets, Turboprops, Single aisle, Twin aisles and Freighters Training capacity is based on current figures without any incremental effect due to planned additional capacities
ICAO vision for Next Generation Aviation Professionals The need for reliable statistics The «Best and the Brightest» Facilitating the use of competency-based approaches Removing regulatory obstacles A coordinating mechanism is required
#><?#/9' @&9 %69< A@9# <'6<6?< 'BC A@9# <'6<6?< 'B
ICAO All rights reserved. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of ICAO. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without prior permission of ICAO. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, ICAO will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.