Integrating Ecosystem and Livelihood Adaptation in Nepal

Integrating Ecosystem and Livelihood Adaptation in Nepal Judy Oglethorpe, Shubash Lohani and Moon Shrestha World Wildlife Fund

Integrating ecosystems and livelihoods Working at different scales Partnering for greater success

MELTING GLACIERS AND SNOW PACK Nepal s Imja Glacier, 1956 2006

UNRELIABLE MONSOON FOOD SECURITY

CHANGES IN WATER SECURITY

INCREASE IN FOREST FIRES April, 2009- Forest Fire in Nepal NASA

INCREASE IN NATURAL DISASTERS

HEALTH IMPACTS

Potato: Current

Potato: 2 C warming

LOCAL LEVEL Vulnerability assessment - Langtang Extended dry or wet seasons Glaciers meltdown Rainfall pattern changes GLOF (Yala Glacier) Water holes/ Springs reduction Tree-line shifts Shifting of vegetation Uphill Increased frequency of Forest Fires Occurrence of invasive species Fresh Water Availability/ Scarcity Habitat changesdecreases Forests/ Pastureland Degradation Landslides, mudflows Flash Floods Irrigation Resource use conflicts Induces human wildlife conflict Impact on Wildlife s food and space Agriculture productivity decreases Agricultural seasonality changes Livestock management Forest management Agriculture management Water management Major impacts of CC NR Sectors impacted by CC Impacts Livelihoods of people Impacts Ecosystem Resilience

Preparing Water Smart Communities

Improving food security Community seed bank Farmer s School

Disaster risk reduction restoring ecosystems

Reducing pressure on forests

Water Watch Communities

RIVER BASIN LEVEL

NATIONAL LEVEL inputs to NAPA and national climate change strategy Inputs to government periodic development plans Work with national fora on climate change communication, outreach

REGIONAL AND GLOBAL LEVELS Regional level Living Himalayas Summit (Nepal, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh) 10 year road map for climate change adaptation in the Himalayas (Oct 2011) Global level UNFCCC, Ecosystems and Livelihoods Adaptation Network

Partnerships at different levels Local level Langtang buffer zone user groups and buffer zone management committees, local government Department of Water Resources, Dept of Forests, Department of National Parks, Department of Agriculture and Livestock Basin level Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (Koshi River basin), district and national level government, community based organizations, Duke University National level Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Forests, Ministry of Water Resources, Nepalese civil society groups, Climate Change Nepal Network, universities, CARE, UNDP, Oxfam Regional level governments of neighboring countries, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Ecosystems and Livelihoods Adaptation Network Building poor and marginalised people s resilience to the impacts of climate change by promoting sound ecosystem management within an integrated approach to adaptation policy and practice Boundary organization!! www.elanadapt.net

Integrating ecosystems and livelihoods Working at different scales Partnering for greater success

Local perceptions of and communitybased adaptation to climate change in the western and central Himalayas International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal Mirjam Macchi, Brigitte Hoermann, Dhrupad Choudhury ICARUS II Ann Arbor, 7 May 2011

Vulnerability and adaptation in mountains Mountain ecosystems among the most sensitive and increasingly under stress Warming is more accentuated in Himalayas, particularly at higher altitudes Limited knowledge about the extent and magnitude of future climate change in the Himalayas Mountain communities are highly dependent on ecosystem services Limited political influence and economic opportunities Livelihoods are susceptible to economic, social, political and environmental stresses and shocks Climate variability and change is exacerbating already existing stress Mountain communities have a long history of adapting to extreme environmental conditions

Research questions How do different mountain communities perceive and interpret climate change and do these perceived changes correspond to observed climate data in the study area? What are the major impacts of these changes on the communities livelihoods? How do mountain communities respond to the perceived changes and how resilient are these response strategies in view of future climate change? Are there any differences between social groups in terms of perceptions of change and the implications for livelihoods and adaptive capacity?

Study area Sample size: 20 villages India: Uttarakhand Almora & Tehri Garhwal Nepal: Bajhang Kavre Terhathum Altitudinal range: 400-2400 masl

Findings: Perception of change Perception of change Higher temperatures, prolonged, more intense hot period, more variable, accentuated extremes Less and more erratic rainfall more intense events Less or absent winter rains Lower water levels, some springs dry Prolonged dry season Monsoon onset delayed, more unpredictable Absence of snow, less snow, or shorter duration of snow coverage More crop pests/diseases Districts Uttarakhand, Nepal (villages at high altitudes) Kavre All districts Uttarakhand, Bajhang All districts All districts All districts All districts All districts except Terhathum All districts Stronger reduction in precipitation reported in the west and greater perception of increasing temperatures at higher altitudes

Findings: Comparison with climate records Mean annual air temperature and total annual precipitation at Dhulikhel station, Kavre district, Nepal Total summer (JJAS) precipitation amount at Dhulikhel station, Kavre district, Nepal

Impacts of change on livelihoods and wellbeing Reduction in agricultural outputs (staple and cash-crops) Exacerbated food-insecurity Reduced water availability for household, agriculture and livestock Reduced availability of fodder for animals, firewood and NTFPs Increased workloads Health issues (vector borne diseases, heat strokes, mental tension) Loss of some livelihood options Opportunities: Beneficial conditions for certain crops

Community response strategies Coping mechanisms are understood as short-term actions to ward off immediate risk, rather than to adjust to continuous or permanent threats or changes (ICIMOD 2009) Adaptation mechanisms are a set of longer-term strategies and actions in reaction to or in anticipation of change taken by people in order to enhance or maintain their wellbeing (Goulden et al. 2009)

Coping Mechanisms Adjustment of agricultural calendar Re-sowing after early season failure Cease planting paddy Use failed crops as hay Shift to smaller livestock Reintroduction of traditional water sharing system Skip meals Borrow money Sell assets

Adaptation Mechanisms Replacement of crop varieties or types Introduction of new crops Grow crops at higher altitudes More than one crop cycle per year Changes in production technologies Afforestation of catchment areas Build canals and ponds for irrigation Livelihood diversification: Collection of NTFPs Increasing engagement in wage labour (on and off-farm) Increasing labour migration

Resilience of response strategies Mostly reactive Short-term oriented Continuing high dependence on natural resources and ecosystem services Only few non-land based options Many coping strategies deplete capital and increase workloads Some only viable for those with entitlements to capital

Differential vulnerability and adaptive capacity Social vulnerability and adaptive capacity of individuals and communities are determined by livelihood assets Assets are determined by different categories of social inequality Poor, women and lower cast families are particularly vulnerable and least able to adapt

Conclusion People s perception of climate variability and change is largely consistent with recorded climate data Need for Hydro-Meteorological Stations in the Himalayas and capacity building Main underlying causes of social vulnerability and low adaptive capacity in the study area include continuing high reliance on ecosystem services, low income diversity, extreme poverty, low levels of formal education, social inequality, inadequate services and infrastructure and political and economic marginalisation Other stressors including changes in socio-econonmic and demographic conditions also need to be considered Response strategies which go beyond coping, have a longerterm perspective and are anticipatory need to be strengthened Need for livelihood diversification which strengthens non-farm options (e.g. Skills development in different trades, better use of social and financial remittances) Outreach and services need to be improved (e.g. extension, formal financial services, insurance, access to markets) Need for an enabling policy framework which ensures the interlinkage of scales (planned adaptation needs to build on autonomous adaptation)

Thank you

Climate Change, Adaptation and Water in the Central Andes Armando Lamadrid Center for International Climate & Environmental Research, Oslo (CICERO) ICARUS Conference, May 5 8, 2011 SNRE, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 1

The Central Andes «Water Towers» of Western South America 80% of flow to drylands generated in mountains (Messerli 2001) 99% of tropical glaciers located in the Andes Urban population 119 million people (Venezuela to Bolivia); 76% of population; centralized development (i.e. 29% Peruvian pop. In Lima) (map from Vuille et al., 2008, p. 81) Rural areas, agriculture, poor, indigenous, «mestizo»

Climate Change in the Andes Future Temperature Projections (2090-2099, A2 scenario): 4.5-5 C increase Glacier meltdown: Glacier length & SA change, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, 1930-2005 (Vuille et al., 2008, p. 82)

Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, S. Peru

Implications for Water Resources Increased seasonality of streamflow discrepency between need & timing of discharge Glaciers more important than snow cover in tropics due to collision of melting & accumulation seasons Increased flow in short-term; long-term drop-off, causing sustainability concerns (Mark, 2008) Non-renewed glacier-thinning Glacier retreat will mean disappearance of smaller and lower glaciers, decreasing dry season buffer, affecting drinking water, irrigation, hydropower production, mining, ecosystem and people

The Meltdown Narrative Apocalyptic downstream impact chain of melting glaciers and snow affecting people, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. But, essentialization of environment and people How to better frame the problem? Water history approach; society-environment development (Tvedt 2010) Bottom-up approach; locally-defined vulnerabilities (Hovelsrud et al. 2010; Young et al. 2010)

Water History in the Andes La longue durée (Tvedt 2010; Braudel 1958) The Notion of an Andean Irrigation Culture ; andinidad, lo andino Relationship between people, place, nature, animals, agriculture, mountains and water Irrigation water has been the basis of Andean production for thousands of years Irrigation is the economic adaptation to the Andean environment

Andes & Climate Change in Historical Context Many cultures over a long time period have faced impacts of climate change, and as a result have transformed Moche civilization, N. Peru, A.D. 100-800 (El Niño induced collapse theory) (Fagan 1999) Wari & Tiwanaku cultures, S. Peru, Northern Bolivia, A.D. 600-1000 (conflict & drought induced stress) (Williams 2002) Inca civilization, A.D. 1400-1532, rapid expansion (innovative societal strategies & increased warming) (Chepstow-Lusty et al. 2009)

Climate Change, Glacier/Snow Retreat & Contemporary Andean Societies Rural andino societies, collectively managing water for irrigation: Cotacacheños, Cotacachi Volcano glacier-retreat, Ecuador (Rhoades 2008) Quechua peoples, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (Bury et al. 2010; Mark et al. 2010) Quechua & Aymara peoples, Bolivian altiplano (Valdivia et al. 2010) Quechua & mestizo peoples, Cañón del Colca, Peru (Lamadrid 2008) Mestizo peoples, Elqui Valley, Chile (Young et al. 2010)

Climatic/ Environmental Exposure Sensitivities Andean Vulnerabilities Past & Present Past Societies Multi-Year Drought Tiwanaku affected by general drought (Williams 2002) Wari affected by general drought (Williams 2002) Seasonal Drought (decrease in summer runoff due to glacier/snow loss) Flooding Tiwanaku & Wari peoples affected, possibly by ENSO related events, but able to recover easily from local impacts (Williams 2002) Debris Flow/ Landslides Changing Weather Patterns/ Climate Extreme Weather/ Precipitation/ Freezing Events Receding Glaciers/ Snow-line due to Warming Comtemporary Societies Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile sensitive to decreasing river flow for irrigation due to melting snow/ice in mountains in long-term; prolonged drought due to intensification of ENSO (Young et al. 2010) Natives of Cotacachi Volcano region, Ecuador experiencing decreased flow from streams & springs (Rhoades 2008) Quechua in Cordillera Blanca (Mark et al. 2010) Quechua in Cordillera Blanca (Bury et al. 2010) Quechua & mestizos of Colca Canyon (Lamadrid 2008) Aymara peoples of Bolivian altiplano (Valdivia et al. 2010) Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile sensitive to summer shortages of potable water (Young et al. 2010) Aymara peoples of Bolivian altiplano (Valdivia et al. 2010) Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile, due to intensification of ENSO cycle (Young et al. 2010) Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile due to ENSO (Young et al. 2010) Natives of Cotacachi Volcano region, Ecuador (Rhoades 2008) Quechua in Cordillera Blanca affected by impacts on crops, livestock (Mark et al. 2010) Quechua & mestizos of Colca Canyon (Lamadrid 2008) Aymara peoples of Bolivian altiplano affected by later onset of rains (Valdivia et al. 2010) Natives of Cotacachi Volcano region, Ecuador perceived higher winds (Rhoades 2008) Quechua in Cordillera Blanca affected by impacts on crops, livestock, human health (Mark et al. 2010) Quechua in Cordillera Blanca (Bury et al. 2010) Quechua & mestizos of Colca Canyon (Lamadrid 2008) Aymara peoples of Bolivian altiplano (Valdivia et al. 2010) Natives of Cotacachi Volcano region, Ecuador potentially affected by decrease in tourism (Rhoades 2008) Quechua in Cordillera Blanca affected by decreasing tourism (Mark et al. 2010) Quechua in Cordillera Blanca affected by decreasing tourism (Bury et al. 2010) Quechua & mestizos of Colca Canyon (Lamadrid 2008) Pests Aymara peoples' of Bolivian altiplano agriculture affected (Valdivia et al. 2010) Quechua & mestizos of Colca Canyon encountering new pests (Lamadrid 2008) Potable Water Shortages Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile due to summer shortages, increased demand from industry & tourism (Young et al. 2010) Quechua & mestizos of Colca Canyon experiencing drying springs (Lamadrid 2008) Vegetation Changes Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile, goat herding affected by drought (Young et al. 2010)

Andean Vulnerabilities Past & Present Socio-economic Exposure Sensitivities Past Societies Comtemporary Societies Resource (Mis-) Management (i.e. water) Tiwanaku (Williams 2002) Social Conflict/ Unrest Loss of Neighboring Polity/ Trade Partner Tiwanaku political unrest (Williams 2002) Inca due to Spanish Conquest (Chepstow-Lusty 2009) Wari (Williams 2002) Variable Access to Water Resources Natives of Cotacachi Volcano region, Ecuador (Rhoades 2008) Quechua in Cordillera Blanca (Bury et al. 2010) Low Livestock Prices Aymara peoples of Bolivian altiplano (Valdivia et al. 2010) Adult Unemployment Aymara peoples of Bolivian altiplano (Valdivia et al. 2010) Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile reduced income diversity leading to seasonal migration (Young et al. 2010) Quechua & mestizos of Colca Canyon migrate away permanently or seasonally (Lamadrid 2008) International Demand Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile due to agri-business response to international fruit & wine demand (Young et al. 2010) National Economic Strategies Diaguitas community, Elqui Valley, Chile affected by export-oriented policy in national water law (Young et al. 2010) Private investment in water use elevated to 'juridical principle' in 2009 Peruvian Law of Hydraulic Resources (Borg-Rasmussen 2010)

Reflections on Historical- Contemporary Comparison Past societies, water & climate change revelations Archaeological studies focus on long-term trends, ultimate causes of collapse and expansion (i.e. longterm drought, except Elqui Valley, Chile where drought is endemic) Archaeological studies also highlight opportunities for, not just barriers to adaptation Importance of social stressors highlighted (i.e. impacts of conflict and societies interdependence on vulnerability)

Reflections on Historical- Contemporary Comparison (cont d) Contemporary societies, water & climate change reveal Importance of seasonal, inter- and intra-annual climatic variations on water resources Importance on local geography important (i.e. drought has different meanings depending on where you are) Importance of socio-economic stressors (i.e. access to markets, impacts of national policies, political economy, etc.) Impacts on ecology/vegetation in addition to just streamflow change affected by glacier melt

Adaptation to CC in the Andes Andino societies exist within a long-term frame of climatewater-society relations Irrigation has provided the basis for production/adaptation for thousands of years, across climate change and social upheaval Climate change adaptation in the Andes begs the question: adaptation to what/for whom? New climate & new hydrology beyond environment New society & new scalar linkages (political economy affecting scale of importane of irrigation; subsistance or of central importance to market?) Re-linking of historical human-ecological linkages (i.e. vertical ecology; ex: S. Bolivia irrigation scheme)

Revisiting Meltdown Use of water history and bottom-up approaches of historical responses to environmental and social changes and future vulnerabilities can help to better define not only Andean irrigators weaknesses but potentials for innovation and adaptation to an uncertain future The meltdown narrative is an important call-to-arms for more adaptation research & push climate justice, but it must be modified to better characterize most vulnerable not as victims, but as innovative, adaptable actors in the Andean environment, as they have always been

Many Challenges for Adaptation Ahead Thank you! 18

Local Institutions for Water Management and Forest Conservation in Western Honduras Catherine Tucker, PhD Indiana University

What circumstances facilitate effective management of water and forest resources? What possibilities exist to mitigate or adapt management strategies to climate change?

Study Site in Western Honduras

Disputed Territory Santa Cruz Map of the Study Area

Creation of the Montaña Camapara Reserve Created in 2003 after 10 years of effort by villages dependent on the water from the mountain Goal: Protect the cloud forest and its watersheds Villagers had noticed a drop in water flow as coffee farmers cleared forest on the mountain. People demanded compliance with National Decree 87-87: Law for Cloud Forest Protection Required relocation of 19 farmers Involved negotiation with authorities and residents of the three municipios that share the mountain Reserve managed as common property

The Role of Water Committees In Honduras, national water laws (1993, 2003, 2006)require every rural town or village to manage its potable water through local water committees Everyone who uses the water is a member of the water committee. Water committees can contract for water or manage their own potable water system Water users elect leaders to govern the committee. Committees form rules for water use and maintenance. At national level, water committee effectiveness varies greatly

Camapara Reserve Water Committees Appear Highly Effective 4 managed watersheds 10 reservoirs 27 villages (~1500 households) Over 7500 people served Water systems have been maintained successfully The reserve is protected, forest is expanding Map showing one micro-watershed and its beneficiaries (FAO 2004)

What Factors Contribute to Effective Water and Forest Management Despite Conflict? Conformance to design principles of long-enduring common-property resource management (Ostrom 2005) Beliefs and ideology conducive to cooperative water management Education and involvement of young people Dependence on water: Is water special?

Conformance with Design Principles (Ostrom 1990, 2005) Clear boundaries (even in context of land conflict) Clear definition of user groups (easier with conflict?) Participation by local users in reserve creation and rule development: Rules fit the local situation Monitoring and rule enforcement (emerged because of conflict) Locally developed and accessible conflict resolution mechanisms Higher level government allows local collective action for water management and forest conservation Collaborative linkages ( nesting ) across levels of governance

Locally Designed Rules that Fit the Local Situation Strict protection from human intervention: Only people maintaining the water projects and forest guards can enter the reserve Livestock grazing prohibited No harvesting of forest products allowed Water committee rules (common to Camapara users) Everyone takes turns doing monthly project maintenance (includes visual monitoring of forest and water quality) Required attendance at meetings Required labor to maintain fences Monthly or annual fee payment, or else disconnection

Local Beliefs and Ideology Regarding Water Ideology: Water is life Water is a human right Considered morally reprehensible to deny anyone access to water BUT access to water is gained and maintained through commitment and effort

Education and Involvement of Youth Primary and secondary students are responsible for making and placing signs along reserve borders Trees painted along fences to mark edges of reserve Planting living fences I am Camapara, protect me and I will give you life We must protect flora and fauna

Is Water Special? Nature of the resource Water necessity and scarcity Benefits of coordination to manage water

Climate Change Poses a Risk for Cloud Forests and People Who Depend on Them Prediction for Honduras: Greater variability in rainfall patterns Higher average temperatures Increasing risks of extreme weather events Recent experience suggests that impacts from climate change are already affecting the area General study site opinions: Rainfall no longer falls as expected, temperatures are higher Problem: Difficult for farmers to distinguish climate change from normal variability

Potential for Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change in the Study Site Recognition that management is a process not an end: Efforts to further protect water sources and forests In 2010, two small forest patches with springs were fenced and protected from agricultural expansion Initiatives to address scarcity: Ex: Water monitors patrol during dry season to sanction wasteful water use Labor obligations maintain household level awareness of reserve conditions and seasonal water levels Periodic experience with acute water scarcity during system maintenance may augment commitment to water conservation

Local Challenges to Climate Change Adaptation Coffee production and processing exacerbate water demand during the dry season Absentee coffee plantation owners try to shirk water project responsibilities Water demand increasing with coffee expansion and population growth Need for better coordination with increasing demand and unpredictable climatic fluctuations Will the existing arrangements be able to adapt to meet the challenges?

Understanding Complexity Complex socio-ecological systems encompass elements of resilience and vulnerability Robust systems can be subject to unpredictable and uncontrollable external shocks and transformative pressures The challenge: identify and mitigate weaknesses, and reinforce strengths How to build robust linkages that promote adaptation and mitigation across levels of governance?