University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Tourism Travel and Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally 2014 Marketing Outlook Forum - Outlook for 2015 Outlook for International Inbound Travel to North America - The International Marketplace: What's Happening? Rolf Frietag IPK International Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarworks.umass.edu/ttra Frietag, Rolf, "Outlook for International Inbound Travel to North America - The International Marketplace: What's Happening?" (2016). Tourism Travel and Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally. 29. http://scholarworks.umass.edu/ttra/2014marketing/proceedings/29 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Tourism Travel and Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact scholarworks@library.umass.edu.
World Travel Trends 2014 and 2015 Forecasting Global and American Tourism Latest results of IPK s World Travel Monitor - based on IPK s worldwide representative tourism polling - ROLF FREITAG, President of IPK International Atlanta, Berlin, October 6 March, 22 th, 2014 2013
Database Is Our World Travel Monitor IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 2
The World Travel Monitor Delivers Premium Data from 63 Countries of Origin covering 90% of global outbound demand American Travel Monitor 14 countries 99% market coverage European Travel Monitor 33 countries 99% market coverage Asian Travel Monitor 16 countries 87% market coverage Representative data you can trust travel to all destinations worldwide IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 3
2014 Many Destinations Were In Distress Violence and political unrest in 35 countries remained in the headlines for some key destinations keeping travelers away, sometimes in droves - not to forget Ebola IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 4
World Travel Monitor Update 2014 Nevertheless 2014 has become another excellent global travel year IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 5
2010-2014 World Domestic Travel Returned to Growth 8 6 6.5 billion trips Change: +3% 4 2 0-2 -4 Aug 10 Oct Dec Feb 11 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 12 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 13 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 14 Apr Jun Aug Oct Source: Estimates by IPK International, October 2014 IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 6
2010-2014 World Outbound Travel Did Even Better 8 6 980 million trips Change: +4.5% 4 2 0-2 -4 1.15 countries visited per trip > 1.133 mn. arrivals (UNWTO) Aug 10 Oct Dec Feb 11 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 12 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 13 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb 14 Apr Jun Aug Oct Source: Estimates by IPK International, October 2014 IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 7
World Outbound Travel 2009 2014 World Outbound Trip Performance 980 million Trips 1100 1000 900 +7% +5% +4% +4%* +5% 800 700 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 +28% Mean growth: 45 Million more outbound trips per year Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 8
World Outbound Turnover 2014 Mean spending per trip 1,785 USD +2% World Outbound Turnover 1,750 bn. $ 75% go to the destination - 25% stay at the origin Due to online bookings destination share is increasing Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 9
World Outbound Travel 2014 Mean Length Of Outbound Trip Was 8 Nights 11 One trip per year 10 9 Several trips per year 8 7 6 Latin America Eastern Europe Western Europe North America Asia 7.7 billion World Outbound Nights Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 10
World Long Haul Performance 2011-2014 Growth by Destination Continents 30% 25% +28% +22% European destinations were outperforming 20% +20% +18% 15% 10% +10% Suprime Crisis 5% 0% Europe Asia USA Latam Caribbean Source: World Travel Monitor 2011 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International Change in % 2011-2014 IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 11
World Outbound Travel 2013 Top Ten City Destinations 2013 Rank City and surroundings Trips in mn. 1 Paris 18.8 2 New York 18.5 3 London 16.1 4 Bangkok 14.6 5 Barcelona 12.4 6 Singapore 10.6 7 Munich 9.2 8 Berlin 8.5 9 Los Angeles 8.1 10 Dubai 8.0 Source: World Travel Monitor 2013, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 12
World Outbound Accommodation Choice 2009-2014 Rising Market Share of Para-Hotellerie Hotel 60% Para- Hotellerie* 40% Holiday Home 20% Others* 12% Sharing Economy VFR 8% Upper + 23% Middle + 10% Budget + 18% Para- Hotellerie* + 35%!!! *Others: bed & breakfast; tent/caravan; ship/boat/cruise/yacht; youth hostel/family hostel; holiday club; pension Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International Share and change in % of trips IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 13
World Outbound Travel 2009-2014 Why Does the World Population Travel Abroad? VFR +22 % 27% 8% 65% Business +18% Holidays +31% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 14
World Outbound Holidays 2009-2014 What Was Driving the World Holiday Market? 1 City Holidays + 58% 2 Touring Holidays + 32% From Emerging Markets 3 Sun & Beach Holidays +18% From Eastern Europe 4 Countryside Holidays - 17% Financial Crisis Impact Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 15
World Outbound Travel 2009 2014 Key Global Holiday Benefits & Activities 1. Visiting sites / sightseeing 2. Relaxing, unwinding, sleeping well 3. Enjoying meals + drinks 4. Swimming + sunbathing 5. Discovering landscape + nature 6. Shopping Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 16
World Outbound Business Travel 2014 What Was Driving Business Travel? MICE 70% 54% 46% Increasing Share Traditional Decreasing Share Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 17
World Outbound Travel 2009 2014 Promotable Business Travel Is Outperforming 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% +64% +45% +30% Incentive Convention Conference / Congress Global Know How Searching +6% Exhibition / Trade Fair Financial Crisis -10% Traditional Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 18
World Outbound Travel 2014 Choice of booking channels* - Trend 70% 60% 66% Internet bookings +7% slowing growth rate! soon saturation? 50% 40% 30% 20% 24% Travel Agency bookings +1% consolidation of market share 10% 0% Internet Travel Agency Directly with Hotel Directly Carrier Others Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International *multiple answers possible IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 19
World Outbound Travel 2014 Booking Via Smartphone Is Fast Gaining Market Share Share of Smartphone Online Bookings China 10% 2013 4% USA 7% 2013 2% Japan 5% 2013 2% Europe 4% 2013 2% *And how did you make your Internet/Online bookings? 1. Online via Personal Computer / Notebook / ipad 2. Online via Smartphone / Mobile / Tablet 3. Other Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 20
Boomer 2014 Social Media Use For Outbound Travel China 95% Brazil 84% USA 65% Europe 61% Japan 51% Do you use special travel blogs, travel forums, rating or review sites, with regard to your travel and holiday planning? Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 21
Global Travel Outperformers 2009-2014 City Holidays Touring Holidays Air Transportation Shorter Trips Para & Luxury Accommodation MICE Travel Internet Bookings Travel Social Media Use Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 22
World Outbound Travel 2014 Long Haul Versus Short Haul Travel Long Haul 17% 70% 83% Increasing Share Short Haul Decreasing Share Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 23
World Long Haul Sales Turnover 2014 Spending per long haul trip 2,930 USD Spending per trip to USA 3,151 USD World Long Haul Turnover 511 bn. $ 29% of world expenses were spend for long haul travel Over the last five years long haul travel turnover was growing faster than short haul turnover Source: World Travel Monitor 2013, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 24
World Outbound Travel 2013 Top Six Long Haul Markets of Origin Rank Country of Origin Trips mn. Market Share 1 USA 32.5 19.5% 2 UK 13.0 7.8% 3 China 10.8 6.5% 4 Canada 9.6 5.8% 5 Japan 8.7 5.2% 6 Germany 7.7 4.6% Source: World Travel Monitor 2013, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 25
World Outbound Travel 2013 Top Six Long Haul Destination Countries Rank Destination Trips in mn. Market Share 1 USA 29.0 17.4% 2 UK 7.3 4.4% 3 Thailand 7.1 4.3% 4 Italy 7.0 4.2% 5 China 6.5 3.9% 6 Germany 6.4 3.8% Source: World Travel Monitor 2013, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 26
Asian Outbound Trend by Destination Continents (2011 2014) Ø To Latam* +40% Ø To Europe +35% Ø To USA +38% Ø To Africa + 20% Stable US Share on the Asian Outbound Market Source: World Travel Monitor 2011 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International ACI Montreal UNWTO - PATA IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 27
South American Outbound Trend by Destination Continents (2011 2014) Ø To Asia* + 55% > To Europe + 26% Ø To USA + 11% Ø To Africa + 9% USA are loosing share in South America Source: World Travel Monitor 2011 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International ACI Montreal UNWTO - PATA IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 28
European Outbound Trend by Destination Continents (2011 2014) Ø To Asia +11% Ø To Latam + 6% Ø To USA + 7% Ø To Africa - 7% USA have lost share in Europe - but strong come back in 2014 Source: World Travel Monitor 2011 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International ACI Montreal UNWTO - PATA IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 29
European Outbound Market Trends The European Outbound Market remained strong over the last years despite uncertainties from the sovereign debt crisis and recession in some countries Outbound growth is healthy and is expected to continue over the next years by an average of 3% p.a. IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 30
US Inbound 2009 2013 From Europe Sweden Switzerland Poland France Denmark Norway Belgium Germany Italy Netherlands UK Ireland -3% -19% 42% 35% 29% 26% 23% 14% 13% 12% 11% 8% British and Irish travel markets were heavily hit by the financial crisis Total +19% -80% -30% 20% 70% 120% 170% 220% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 31
European Visitors To USA 2009-2014 By Type of Travel - 3% All Business Trips; 16% All Leisure Trips; 84% +10% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 32
European US - Visitors 2009 2014 By Type Of Holiday Rank 1 > Touring Holidays 30% Key Holiday Motivation Touring Holidays Visiting objects of interest Visiting Cities Knowing the landscape Relaxing Visiting museums, exhibitions +11% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 33
European US - Visitors 2009 2014 By Type of Holiday Rank 2 > City Trips 29% Key Holiday Motivation City Trips Sightseeing / Visiting objects of interest Shopping Sauntering, enjoying the atmosphere Visiting museums, exhibitions Enjoying meals and drinks +32% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 34
European US - Visitors 2009 2014 By Type of Holiday Rank 3 > Sun & Beach 11% Key Holiday Motivation Sun & Beach Relaxing Sun-bathing Swimming Shopping Enjoying meals and drinks -20% Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 35
So How Will Travel Year 2015 Fare? IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 36
World Outbound Travel Prognosis 2015 Every six months, our World Travel Monitor poses some prospective questions concerning outbound travel planning: in Europe in South America in North America in Asia IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 37
IPK s World Travel Confidence Index Above 100 = increase Around 100 = growth threshold Below 100 = decrease IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 38
2015 European Outbound Intentions Are Still Good 106 104 102 101 102 103 101 102 102 104 104 103 100 98 99 98 European Travel Confidence Index 2009-2015 96 Oct 09 Feb 10 Oct 10 Feb 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Oct 12 Feb 13 Oct 13 Feb 14 Oct 14 Source: World Travel Monitor : Outbound Travel Intention Survey 2009-2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 39
2015 North American Outbound Travel Is Recovering 106 104 103 103 103 104 102 100 100 98 96 94 92 90 95 95 96 USA 104 99 98 98 Canada 103 NAM Travel Confidence Index 2009-2015 88 Oct 09 Mar 10 Oct 10 Mar 11 Oct 11 Mar 12 Oct 12 Mar 13 Oct 13 Mar 14 Oct 14 Source: World Travel Monitor : Outbound Travel Intention Survey 2009-2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 40
2015 World Outbound Intentions Are Good 106 104 102 101 102 103 101 102 102 104 105 105 100 98 96 99 98 World Travel Confidence Index 2009-2015 94 Oct 09 Mar 10 Oct 10 Mar11 Oct 11 Mar12 Oct 12 Mar13 Oct 13 Feb 14 Oct 14 Source: World Travel Monitor : Outbound Travel Intention Survey 2009-2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 41
Our Forecast for World Outbound Travel 2015 + 4.5% Source: World Travel Monitor : Outbound Travel Intention Survey 2009-2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 42
Rolf Freitag President of IPK International info@ipkinternational.com www.ipkinternatioanl.com Quelle: World Travel Monitor, 2009-2012 IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 43