Renewable Energy Island Index and Marketplace Gabriela Esmeral and Nils Janson 20 October 2017
AGENDA The Caribbean RE market The RE Index A look at RE projects large and small Takeaways 1
About Castalia Founded in 1980 with assignments in over 100 countries Offices in the US, Colombia, Australia, France, and New Zealand International consultancy, advising on transactions, strategy and management of infrastructure Experience in energy in Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, The Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and The Turks and Caicos Islands Developing benchmarking system for over 100 electricity utilities in LAC Advised on winning 2013 20MW solar tender in Jamaica Advising IDB and CDB on geothermal development in the Eastern Caribbean Comprehensive study on feasibility of introducing natural gas to the Caribbean Supported development of Cayman Island s National Energy Policy Sector Experience Sample of Our Key Clients Energy Water Transport Telecommunications 2
The RE Index 3
Annual Generation (GWh) Oil Coal NG Solar Wind Geotherm al Hydro Bio/WTE Cuba 20,288 81.6% 4 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% TBD 0.5% 3.1% Dominican Republic 14,970 48.5% 12.4% 20.1% 0.7% 5.1% 0 12.6% 0.6% Trinidad & Tobago 8,900 0.2% 0 99.8% 4 4 0 0 4 Jamaica 4,142 84.9% 4 4 1.8% 7% 0 2.7% 3.6% The Bahamas 1,930 99.7% 4 4 4 4 0 0 0.3% Guadeloupe 1,733 83.4% 4 4 5.6% 3.4% 2.9% 0.8% 3.9% Martinique 1,591 93.3% 4 4 4.8% 0.1% 4 0 1.9% Suriname 1,580 45.0% 4 4 0.7% 4 0 54.3% 4 Haiti 1,105 79.7% 4 4 0.1% 4 0 20.2% 4 Barbados 903 97.8% 4 4 2.2% 4 0 0 4 Guyana 690 90.7% 4 4 4 4 0 4 9.3% US Virgin Islands 641 93.9% 0 4 6.1% 4 0 0 4 Bermuda 590 98.1% 0 4 0.3% 4 0 0 1.6% Belize 535 40.9% 0 0 0.1% 4 0 48.6% 10.4% Antigua & Barbuda 320 99.9% 0 TBD 0.1% 4 0 0 4 SVG 320 89.8% 0 TBD 0.5% 4 4 9.7% 4 Grenada 206 99.0% 0 TBD 0.9% 0.1% 4 0 4 St. Kitts 196 97.8% 0 TBD 2.2% 4 4 0 4 St. Lucia 143 99.9% 0 TBD 0.1% 4 4 0 4 Dominica 110 75.0% 0 TBD 0.9% 0.5% 4 23.5% 4 Nevis 56 88.0% 0 TBD 4 12% 4 0 4 British Virgin Islands 50 95.2% 0 TBD 0.2% 4.6% 0 0 4 Source: CREF-Castalia Renewable Energy Islands Index and Marketplace, 2016. 4 viable, but not in use 0 not viable
The Cost of RE is Becoming Cheaper 5
Opportunities: US$6.3 billion market for 1,878 MW for Capacity Intermittents continue to be 60% of planned installed capacity and 35% of planned investments 6
The RE Index at CREF Partnered with CREF to produce RE Index and the Marketplace since 2012 Tool to track progress and prospects in renewable energy investment in the Caribbean Measure of progress by jurisdiction on RE Equal weight for enabling environment, planned generation, and existing generation For more detail, our note on methodology is online, or come chat after Data comes from surveys sent to ministries, regulators, and utilities, as well as what is publicly available online. We received responses from 33 jurisdictions this year 7
Big Picture: Familiar top performers Belize Dominica Guadeloupe 2 1 3 Top performers have a strong enabling environment, have existing RE generation, and are planning to further expand RE generation 8
Overview of Top Performers Dominica Enabling environment: 5 Existing generation: 6MW 0.4MW 0.2MW Planned generation: 110MW Total Installed Capacity: ~24MW Belize Enabling environment: 4 Existing generation: 54 MW 27MW 0.4MW Planned generation: 16MW Total Installed Capacity: ~154MW Guadeloupe Enabling environment: 5 Existing generation: 26MW 9MW 15MW Planned generation: 12 MW Total Installed Capacity: ~508MW 9
Enabling environment and Existing RE Average EE score (3.2) Average RE Share (11%) *Belize is above the average, with 87% RE share and EE score of 4.0 Note: Existing RE is based on estimates for end-2016
Share of Planned Electricity Produced from RE 110MW 40MW 32MW 16MW 1MW 381MW 18MW 12MW 8MW 706MW 72MW 6MW 11
Large projects coming up Cuba: Projects: Ciro Redondo Sugar Mill (62MW), and Herradura I (52MW) &Herradura II (52MW) CAPEX: ~186 and 153 million USD Puerto Rico: Project: Montalva Solar Project Belize (100MW) Project: CAPEX: ~145million USD Santander Sugar (Co-generation) (16MW) CAPEX: ~90 million USD Dominican Republic: Projects: Parque Montecristi (58MW) Solar and Fotovoltaico WCG (50MW) CAPEX:~100 million USD and 110 million USD Jamaica: Project: Paradise Park Solar Farm(37MW) CAPEX: ~129 million USD Guyana Project: Hope Beach Wind Farm (13MW) CAPEX: ~50 million USD 12
Projects coming up in top 5 Enabling Environments Cayman Islands Projects: Bodden Town Solar Farm (5MW) and George Town Waste-To- Energy Facility (3MW) CAPEX: ~7 million USD each EE score: 4.3 Jamaica Project: Paradise Park Solar Farm(37MW) CAPEX:~ 129 million USD EE Score: 4.3 13 Martinique Project: Albioma Galion II (40MW) CAPEX: ~211 million USD EE score: 5.0 Guadeloupe Project: Biomass/Coal Cogeneration Plant (12MW) CAPEX: ~92 million USD EE score: 5.0 Dominica Project: Roseau Valley Geothermal Plant (100MW) CAPEX: ~308 million USD EE score: 5.0
Projects in Smaller Markets Cayman Islands Projects: Bodden Town Solar Farm (5MW) and George Town Waste-To- Energy Facility (3MW) CAPEX: ~7 million USD each Monserrat Project: Cork Hill/Weekes Geothermal Plant (3MW) CAPEX: ~1 million USD U.S. Virgin Islands Project: Commercial Wind Farm (5MW) CAPEX: ~18 million USD Nevis Project: Geothermal Plant (9MW) CAPEX: ~39 million USD 14 Saint-Vincent and the Grenadines Project: Geothermal Plant (10MW) CAPEX: ~31 million USD
Takeaways Jurisdictions are changing the legal and regulatory frameworks to enable RE development and investment Recent development of larger solar and wind projects in the Caribbean show that system integration and logistical challenges can be overcome effectively There are many opportunities for continuing to develop and invest in RE: estimate of US$6.3 billion market 15
Nils Janson Executive Vice President Nils.Janson@Castalia-advisors.com Gabriela Esmeral Analyst Gabriela.Esmeral@Castalia-advisors.com Paris 6, Rue Duret 75116 Paris France Sydney 36-38 Young Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia 16 Wellington Level 2, 88 The Terrace PO Box 10-225 Wellington New Zealand Washington 1747 Pennsylvania Ave NW Suite 1200 Washington DC 20006, USA Bogotá Carrera 7 No. 99-53 Torre 1, Oficina 1424 Bogotá Colombia