RECENT SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE REGIONAL FREEWAY AND HIGHWAY PROGRAM MARICOPA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS

MAG Transportation Decision Process (simplified) Transportation Review Committee MAG Management Committee Transportation Policy Committee MAG Regional Council Citizen/Stakeholder Comments 2012, All Rights Reserved. 2

Loop 303 Estrella Loop 101 Agua Fria Interstate 10 Papago SR-30 I-10 Reliever Interstate 17 Black Canyon Loop 101 Pima SR-51 Piestewa Loop 202 Red Mountain US-60 Superstition Loop 202 South Mountain Loop 101 Price SR-24 Gateway SR-143 Hohokam Interstate 10 Maricopa Loop 202 Santan 2012, All Rights Reserved. 4

Regional Freeway and Highway Program $10.5 billion over 20-years (2006-2026). New Freeways SR-24, SR-30, Loop 202/South Mountain, and Loop 303. New/Improved Traffic Interchanges. New HOV and add general purpose lanes projects. US-60/Grand Avenue improvements. Rubberized asphalt to reduce freeway noise. Freeway Management System. Maintenance (litter control and landscaping). 2012, All Rights Reserved. 5

Regional Freeway Program in 2009 prior to Balancing Millions $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 Program Cost Opinion $15.8 billion Scope Changes $3.0 billion Inflation $2.3 billion $6.6 billion deficit $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Base Program $10.5 billion $9.2 billion Program Revenue $0 Regional Transportation Plan 2012, All Rights Reserved. 6

2009 Freeway Program Balancing Right-of-Way Escalation $1.1 Billion (17%) Scope Growth due to Design Decisions $3.5 Billion (53%) Construction Materials and Labor Inflation $2.0 Billion (30%) Total Cost Overruns - $6.6 Billion 2012, All Rights Reserved. 7

Interstate 10/Loop 303 Traffic Interchange $1.42 billion RTP Estimate for Loop 303 Corridor 2009 Cost Opinion $760.4 million $251.1 million Right-of-Way $24.3 million Design $485.0 million - Construction Represents 53.5% of entire Loop 303 program budgeted in the RTP 2012, All Rights Reserved. 9

Loop 202/South Mountain Fwy Projects SEGMENT ACTION COMMENTS YEAR Interstate 10/ Papago to Interstate 10/Maricopa and SR- 202L/Santan +3 GP +1 HOV New Freeway EIS complete 2012 2014 2009 Scenario Program Amount 2009 ADOT Cost Opinion Funding obligated thru FY2012 Segment balance after FY2012 After FY2026 Estimate $1,900.0 million $2,472.3 million $214.3 million $1,685.7 million $-- 2012, All Rights Reserved. 10

Loop 202 Corridor Cost Estimates 21.9 Mile Corridor Length $120,000,000 Cost Per Mile $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $20,000,000 $48.7 million Per mile $1.1 billion $78.7 million Per mile $1.7 billion $97.6 million Per mile $2.1 billion $100.3 million Per Mile $2.2 billion $109.2 million Per Mile $2.4 billion $- 2002 2006 2008 2010 2011 Year 2012, All Rights Reserved. 11

2009 Regional Freeway Program Scenarios Reprioritization Federal/State Strategies Policy and Value Engineering Management Strategies Stay the Course Alternate Facilities Policy and Value Engineering Stay the Course Policy and Value Engineering Trend-Line Stay the Course Reprioritization Federal/State Strategies Management Strategies Maintain-Budget Alternate Facilities Federal/State Strategies Management Strategies Blend 2012, All Rights Reserved. 12

Recently Completed Construction 13-Miles of new Freeway Loop 303 New DHOV Ramp I-10 at Loop 202 (Pecos Stack) US-60 Widening to 6-lanes from 83rd Ave to Loop 303 31-Miles of new HOV Lanes on Loop 101 New DHOV Ramp Loop 101 at Loop 202 11-Miles of new HOV Lanes on Loop 202 2012, All Rights Reserved. 14

2012 Projected Program Cash Flow Thousand Dollars $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 -$200,000 -$400,000 -$600,000 Program Deficit $390 million 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 -$800,000 -$1,000,000 2012, All Rights Reserved. 16

2012 Balancing Principles Do not change timing for immediate construction projects on Loop 303 and US-60/Grand Ave. Look at cash-flow, costs, and timelines for major program items. Programs on US-60/Grand Ave and HOV lanes on SR-202L/Red Mountain- Santan Freeways unaffected. Twelve scenarios considered four advanced - as best case for balancing and meeting cash-flow projections. Pecos Stack Traffic Interchange 2012, All Rights Reserved. 17

Key MAG Studies Underway Central Phoenix Transportation Framework Study US-60/Grand Ave COMPASS Southeast Corridor Major Investment Study MAG Managed Lanes Network Development Strategy Phase I (System-Wide) 2012, All Rights Reserved. 18

Scenario 8 SUMMARY OF MAJOR ITEMS 2021-2025 Loop 101, I-17 to Loop 202 Defer GP Lanes Widening 2022-2026 Loop 202, Loop 101 to Gilbert Rd Defer GP Lanes Widening New Freeway 2015-2021 2022-2026 Loop 101, US-60 to Loop 202 Defer GP Lanes Widening B/C Ratio = -0.71 Disbenefit if GP Widening is not constructed. 2012, All Rights Reserved. 19

REDUCE BY $80 MILLION Loop 303 2021-2024 Scenario 10a SUMMARY OF MAJOR ITEMS REDUCE BY $300 MILLION I-17 2022-2026 2014-2026 2019-2021 New Freeway 2015-2021 2022-2026 2023-2025 2012, All Rights Reserved. 20

DEFER CONSTRUCTION Loop 303, US-60 to I-17 Scenario 10b SUMMARY OF MAJOR ITEMS REDUCE BY $300 MILLION I-17 2022-2026 2014-2026 2019-2021 RETURN TO PROGRAM Loop 303, I-10 to MC-85 2021-2024 B/C Ratio = 5.76 Benefit if Loop 303 is extended. New Freeway 2015-2021 2022-2026 2023-2025 2012, All Rights Reserved. 21

REDUCE BY $80 MILLION Loop 303 2021-2024 Scenario 12 SUMMARY OF MAJOR ITEMS REDUCE BY $300 MILLION I-17 2022-2026 2014-2026 2019-2021 New Freeway 2017-2026 2015-2023 2023-2025 SWAP PRIORITY 2012, All Rights Reserved. 22

Interstate 10/Maricopa Freeway I-10 Corridor Study EIS Southeast Corridor MIS SR-51/Loop 202 to Interstate 17 Split Interstate 17 Split to US-60 US-60 to Loop 202 Pecos Stack 4-5 general purpose lanes 1 HOV Lane 4 Local gen purpose lanes 5 Express gen purpose lanes 2 Express HOV lanes 4 general purpose lanes 1 HOV lane SR-51/Loop 202 to Interstate 17 Split Interstate 17 Split to US-60 US-60 to Loop 202 Pecos Stack 3-4 general purpose lanes 1 HOV lane 5 general purpose lanes 3 Express HOV/HOT lanes 4 general purpose lanes 2 Express HOV/HOT lanes Added premium DHOV ramps Alternate service interchange geometries Connect to an I-17 HOV/HOT lanes option 2012, All Rights Reserved. 23

Performance Statistics Interstate 10 West of SR-143 Outbound Traffic, Evening Peak 58.1 mph 23.5 mph 26.8 mph I-10 Corridor Study EIS 3,200 vehicles 27,400 vehicles 10,300 vehicles SE Corridor MIS Express Lanes 64.1 mph 9,000 vehicles 37.0 mph 33,800 vehicles SE Corridor MIS Express Lanes, No Toll 64.4 mph 8,300 vehicles 35.2 mph 34,200 vehicles 2012, All Rights Reserved. 25

Major Items Summary Corridor Scenario 8 Scenario 10a Scenario 10b Scenario 12 Interstate 17/Black Canyon, Interstate 10 Split to SR-101L Loop 303, US-60/Grand to Interstate 17 2022-2026 2021-2025 Reduce by $300m 2022-2026 Reduce by $300m 2022-2026 Reduce by $80m 2021-2024 X Reduce by $300m 2022-2026 Reduce by $80m 2021-2024 Loop 303 New Freeway, MC-85 to Interstate 10 X X 2021-2024 X Interstate 10/Maricopa Local/Express, 32nd St to SR-202L 2021-2026 2021-2026 2021-2026 2015-2023 Loop 101/Pima, Interstate 17 to SR-202L/Red Mtn X 2014-2026 2014-2026 2014-2026 Loop 101/Price, US-60 to SR-202L/Santan X 2023-2025 2023-2025 2023-2025 Loop 202/Red Mountain, SR-101L to Gilbert Rd X 2019-2021 2019-2021 2019-2021 Loop 202/South Mountain New Freeway, I-10/Maricopa to I-10/Papago SR-24/Gateway New Freeway, SR-202L to Ellsworth Rd 2015-2021 2015-2021 2015-2021 2017-2026 $66.5 million savings $66.5 million savings $66.5 million savings $66.5 million savings 2012, All Rights Reserved. 26

RECENT SCENARIO PLANNING FOR THE REGIONAL FREEWAY AND HIGHWAY PROGRAM MARICOPA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS Bob Hazlett, P.E. Senior Engineering Manager 602 254-6300 bhazlett@ 2012, All Rights Reserved. 27