Trends & Statistics - December 2014 Insight Department VisitScotland December 2014 1
Welcome In today s rapidly changing world, having an informed outlook is vital. The tourism and hospitality sectors are increasingly sensitive to consumer trends and economic conditions. The VisitScotland Insights Team combines consumer perspectives with industry knowledge to allow Scottish Tourism to meet the challenges of today s marketplace. Our monthly Trends and Statistics Summary is a snapshot of industry performance. It also provides a commentary on the drivers influencing consumers and business now and in the future. Insights Summary August 2014 recorded an increase in domestic overnight tourism to Scotland with 5% more trips and 10% increase in expenditure. Tourism Day Trips in October 2014 recorded an increase in trips but a decrease in spend; the continued trend appears towards activity based day trips rather than social ones. The EU Food Information for Consumers regulation came into force on the 13 th December. The regulation requires foodservice operators to identify, record and communicate the presence of 14 allergens in any dish or drink. Glasgow Airport had its busiest November in seven years with almost 575,000 terminal passengers. 2
% Change Year-on-Year % Change Year-on-Year Tourism Performance Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland (GB Residents) The year to August recorded 8.2 million trips, 3% down on 2013 with spend comparable to the first 8 months of 2013 at 1.9 billion. For the month of August 2014 there was an increase in domestic overnight tourism to Scotland with 5% more trips and 10% increase in expenditure. This growth was in divergence to the GB figures which recorded a decline for the month. 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% Domestic overnight trips to Scotland for Holidays were comparable to August 2013. Growth in trips derived from Business travel primarily with spend contribution from VFR and Business. -3.5% -4.0% Trips (m) Night (m) Spend ( m) % Change -2.8% -3.8% -0.4% Jan - Aug 13 8.44 30.18 1938.00 Jan - Aug 14 8.20 29.04 1931.00 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% International Visitors to Scotland H1/2014 Trips (m) Spend ( m) % Change 16.7% 1.8% H1 2013 0.96 620.00 H1 2014 1.12 631.00 International Tourism to Scotland International travel to Scotland Looking at the first 6 months of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013, trips and expenditure of international inbound visitors to Scotland increased. Key growth markets in this period included USA, Germany, Canada, Scandinavia and Spain. Decline in visits were recorded in the French, Belgian and emerging markets (China, India, Brazil) despite figures for 2014 being. Russia however recorded trip growth. International travel to/from the UK September 2014 saw the UK welcome 3% more visits than the same month last year, a total of 2.9 million. While it is too soon to predict final 2014 figures it is encouraging to see visits currently 6% higher over the first nine months compared to 2013. Over the rolling 12 months to September 2014 visits are 5% more than the 12 months to September 2013 and setting a new record for the 12 months to September. UK residents took a little over 20 million trips aboard in the three months to September 2014 just fewer than they did in the same three months of 2013. 3
% Change Year-on-Year Tourism Performance Tourism Day Visits to Scotland (GB Residents) For the first 10 months of the year, Tourism Day trips in Scotland are up 5% compared to the same period in 2013. 6.0% 5.0% Spend figures, although down 20 million are comparable in statistical terms to 2013. The month of October recorded an increase in trips and decrease in spend, as was observed in September. This indicates that there is the continued trend towards activity based day trips rather than social. Scotland is recording spend per trip of 36.35 compared to the UK average cumulative spend per trip to October of 33.32 per trip. Both Scotland and the UK are recording spend per trip down from the same time in 2013 of 38.27 and 33.78 respectively. 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Trips (m) Spend ( m) % Change 4.8% -0.5% Jan-Oct 2013 105 4018 Jan-Oct 2014 110 3998 Year to October 2014 Average Occupancy Rate % occupancy pp change on year to 2013 Hotel (Room) 72 +1 BB/GH (Room) 49-1 Self-Catering 49 +1 Hostel 54 +7 Caravan & Camping* 42-1 RevPAR (to June 14) 70.53 + 6.93 *data collected Apr-Oct Accommodation Occupancy Confidence rates in October are high among all accommodation sectors for the long term outlook. Confidence over a 3 month horizon is strong amongst holiday parks, hostels and hotels. B&B and Self Catering showed some weakness in comparison to other sectors looking over the next three months however this period does reflect the low season. Occupancy rates were generally comparable to last year with Revenue per available room up significantly on previous years. 4
Tourism Trends Trend Consumer Conditions Exchange Rates Weather News Tourism Industry Travel Demand Commentary According the latest Greene King Leisure Spend Tracker report, average UK household spending on eating out was up 4% (y-o-y, to 76) in November. Households with children increased spend by 22%. Overall leisure expenditure was down 8% (y-o-y) driven by a 20% drop in other leisure which included activities such as attending the cinema, theatre and live sporting events. The Scottish Retail Consortium reported in November 2014, total Scottish retail sales decreased by 1.4% compared with November 2013, when they had increased by 1.6%. Likefor-like sales decreased by 2.6% on last November, when they had decreased by 0.6%. Adjusted for deflation measured by the BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index, total Scottish sales increased by 0.4%. Total Food sales were 2.3% down on November 2013, when they had increased 2.3%. Total Non-Food sales were 0.7% down on the previous year when they had increased 1.1%. Adjusted for the estimated effect of online sales in Scotland, total Non-Food sales would have increased by 0.9%. The three-month average total Non-Food sales growth in Scotland stood at 0.2% (adjusted) in November against 2.4% in the UK. Sterling remained strong against a number of key inbound market currencies during November. Falling slightly against the US dollar on positive job news in the US. Against the Euro sterling is up around 0.8% at 1.28 following its long term trend. With sterling being relatively stable albeit at the upper end of its recent performance should have less impact on international visitor spend than during more volatile periods seen in previous years. The UK Met office summarised the UK weather in November as generally unsettled and the mild theme of October continued through most of November, with only short periods of drier weather. Low pressure was often over or to the west of the UK for the first half of the month bringing rain and strong winds at times. However, with these winds frequently from a southerly direction, the month again saw well above average temperatures. For Scotland the month was generally unsettled, but interspersed with a few days of drier weather. An Atlantic depression brought some high rainfall totals to the West Highlands around 6th to 7th, and there was further wet weather towards mid-month. However, it became drier later in the month, particularly in the north-west. It was a mild month with fewer frosts than average. An ambitious plan to tackle Scotland's "chronic problem of digitally excluded citizens" is set to make "real progress" in 2015, according to the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO). The SCVO spearheads a Scottish Government-funded drive to tackle the disproportionately large number of Scots unable to enter the online world. More than 170,000 homes and businesses across rural Scotland have gained access to the latest digital services thanks to the Scotland Superfast Broadband partnership. The Digital Scotland programme is continuing to bring super-fast internet connectivity to areas that previously lacked access to the infrastructure. 15 locations, including Strathmiglo (Fife), Dalrymple (East Ayrshire), Maybole (South Ayrshire), and Wigtown (Dumfries & Galloway) have been connected since November. On the 13th December the EU Food Information for Consumers regulation came into force. The law (which has applied to pre-packed food since 2002) requires foodservice sector operators to identify record and communicate the presence of 14 allergens in any dish or drink. With cereals containing gluten as one of the listed allergens an increasing number of eateries are offering meals which are gluten free, dairy free or sugar free as people become more focused on healthy eating, even when dining out. The Scotsman reported Scottish restaurants are increasingly becoming havens for bare food fanatics who scour menus for dishes which cater to their extreme healthy eating tastes. Scotland s major new music venue, the SSE Hydro has generated economic spin-offs worth more than 130million to its host city Glasgow after its first full year of operation, according to a study by its owners. Additional flights to London helped boost passenger numbers at Scotland s main airports in November. Glasgow Airport had its busiest November in seven years with almost 575,000 passengers travelling through its doors. Edinburgh, also saw an increase in passengers, with more than 700,000 people travelling through the terminal last month. 5
Notes Information Sources GBTS - Great Britain Tourism Survey IPS - International Passenger Survey GBDVS - Great Britain Day Visit Survey SAOS - Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey (SAOS represented as % of total occupancy.) Unless stated % Change and percentage point difference is calculated against comparable period in previous 12 months. Cover Image: Buachaille Etive Mor, The Highlands. Photo by Kris Williams via Flickr Creative Commons For further information on this briefing please contact the Insight Department - research@visitscotland.com Disclaimer: This document has been produced by VisitScotland Insight Department. Due to data collection methodology figures are considered provisional, may be subject to change upon revision and may not total 100% due to rounding. VisitScotland are subject to data provision from third parties and cannot guarantee the availability of specific data. No representation or warranty is given (expressed or implied) as to accuracy or correctness of the information and of the opinions contained in this report. The material shouldn t be regarded as specific advice and no action should be taken 6 with reliance on it. Neither the authors nor VisitScotland accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage in any way or reliance put upon the material.