COTATI CITY PROFILE REPORT

COTATI CITY PROFILE REPORT 2017 Report developed by the Sonoma County Economic Development Board in partnership with the City of Cotati and the Cotati Chamber of Commerce

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD BOARD OF DIRECTORS WAYNE LEACH MICHAEL NICHOLLS MICHAEL TOMASINI TERRI DENTE TERRY GARRETT KATHRYN HECHT LINDA KACHIU PAM CHANTER, CHAIR JORGE ALCAZAR SKIP BRAND BEN STONE, Executive Director EDB FOUNDATION SPONSORS PRESENTING LEVEL FOUNDATION LEVEL PREMIER LEVEL EXECUTIVE LEVEL AMERICAN AGCREDIT AMERICAN RIVER BANK COMCAST GEORGE PETERSEN INSURANCE KEEGAN & COPPIN CO. MIDSTATE CONSTRUCTION NORBAR SONOMA COUNTY ALLIANCE SUMMIT STATE BANK VANTREO INSURANCE ZAINER RINEHART CLARKE MEDIA LEVEL PG. 2

CONTENTS 4. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6. POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS 7. POPULATION & INCOME PROJECTIONS 8. EMPLOYMENT 9. RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE 10. REAL ESTATE & CONSTRUCTION 11. CONSUMER ACTIVITY 12. EDUCATION 13. CITY DATA SNAPSHOT 14. SOURCES 15. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PG. 3

COTATI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY April 2017 The Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB), in partnership with the Sonoma County Workforce Investment Board (WIB), the City of Cotati, and the Cotati Chamber of Commerce is pleased to present the 2017 Cotati Local Economic Profile. Highlights from this Local Economic Profile include: Cotati s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 5.0% in September 2016, higher than Sonoma County (3.8%), and the nation (4.8%) for the same month, but slightly below California (5.3%). The population of Cotati in 2016 was 7,503, and according to Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, it is expected to rise 3.6% to 7,774 by 2021. Between 2000 and 2016, the median household income for Cotati grew by 15% to $61,528. Looking into 2021, this growth is expected to continue, with median income rising to $68,157, an increase of 10.1% from 2016. From 2014 to 2015 the number of houses sold in Rohnert Park/Cotati experienced the largest year to year gain since 2001 to 2002, with 142 more houses sold in 2015 compared to 2014. The value of residential building permits increased markedly in the last year, reaching over $4.5 million in 2016. This indicates stronger growth in construction activity, which improves economic growth, and the potential to alleviate pressure on the housing market. This report is meant to act as a spot-in-time profile to reflect conditions in the city in a given year. While every effort was made to ensure this report contained up-to-date information, certain data was unavailable at the time this report was released; thus, some figures may reflect years prior to 2016. Thank you for your interest in the Economic Development Board s research. For additional information, questions, comments, or suggestions please contact us at (707) 565-7170 or visit www.sonomaedb. org. For other county-specific questions, please visit www.sonomacounty.ca.gov. PG. 4

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COTATI POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS The population of Cotati in 2016 reached 7,503, and according to Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, the population should rise to 7,774 by 2021, an increase of 3.6%. This is on par with the projected population increase of 3.8% for Sonoma County over the same period. From 2000 to 2016, Cotati s population grew by 6.5%. 8 7 6 5 4 3 Total Population Cotati, (Thousands of Residents) In 2016, in the population of those 25 and older, 20% of residents obtained at least a high school diploma. This equals the Sonoma County rate for the same year. The category of Some College consists of individuals who have taken college courses but who have never received their degree, which makes up the largest percentage of Cotati residents. In 2016, about 23% of residents held a bachelor s degree and around 9% held a graduate or professional degree in addition to a bachelor s degree. Moving into 2021, predictions show increases in the Hispanic population, while the proportion of the population that is White decreases. Between 2010 and 2021 there is predicted to be an increase of 5.9 percentage points in the Hispanic population in Cotati, from 17.3% to 23.2%. This is larger than the increase of the Hispanic population by 4 percentage points in Sonoma County overall. 2 1 0 2000 2010 Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) 2016 2021 Population 25+ by Educational Attainment Cotati, 2016 9% 20% 23% 30% Less than 9th Grade High School, No Diploma Associate Degree Graduate/Professional Degree HS Graduate/GED Bachelor's Degree Some College Population, by Race/Ethnicity Cotati 80% 70% 60% 50% 2021 2016 2010 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% White Hispanic Asian Black/African American American Indian Pacific Islander Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) PG. 6

COTATI POPULATION & INCOME PROJECTIONS The population by age in Cotati in 2016 and 2021 shows that the 65 and older population is expected to increase the by the most percentage points over the next five years. The proportion of those aged 25-44 is also expected to increase. The population of those aged 45-64, who represent the group in their prime earning years, is predicted to decrease. Current and Projected Age Distribution Cotati, 2016 & 2021 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 2021 2016 Between 2000 and 2016, the median household income in Cotati grew by 15% to $61,528. Looking into 2021, this growth is expected to continue, with median income rising to $68,157, an increase of around 10.1% from 2016. 10% 5% 0% 0-4 4-9 10-24 25-44 Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) 45-64 65+ As median household income in Cotati rose between 2000 and 2016, the percentage of households earning between $15,000 and $35,000 also fell. However, estimates show that the percentage of households at the lowest end of the spectrum, earning less than $15,000, will continue to increase into 2021. $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 Median Household Income Cotati, (Thousands of Dollars) Between 2016 and 2021, the fastest-growing household income ranges are from $100,000 to $200,000+, resulting in further concentration of households in higher-income tiers. This trend drives the increase in median incomes. $30 $20 $10 $0 2000 2011 Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) 2016 2021 25% 20% 15% Households, by Income Cotati 2021 2016 2000 10% 5% 0% <$15,000 $15,000- $24,999 Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) 25,000- $34,999 $35,000- $49,999 $50,000- $74,999 $75,000- $99,999 $100,000- $149,999 $150,000- $199,999 $200,000+ PG. 7

EMPLOYMENT COTATI Cotati s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.0% in September 2016, higher than Sonoma County (3.8%) for the same month. Compared to September of the previous year, Cotati s unemployment rate is down from 5.3%. Unemployment continues on a downward trend from a high of almost 15% in 2010 and rests below the state (5.3%), and slightly above the nation (4.8%). 15% 12% 9% 6% Unemployment Rate Cotati, 2009-Sept. 2016 Total employment in Cotati was 4,200 in September 2016, which is up 100 employed persons from a year earlier. Total employment in Cotati has followed a steadily increasing trend since 2010, but appears to be reaching a peak. A total of 558 business establishments operate in Cotati in 2016. The city experienced a net gain of 12 businesses in the last year. About 45.8% of Cotati s employed population is in the category of services, which includes education, health care, tourism and legal services The relatively high percentage of employees working in Manufacturing and Construction, shows that Cotati contains a solid proportion of workers creating tangible goods. These sectors represent value producing sectors and drivers of economic activity. 3% 0% '09 '10 '11 '12 Source: California Economic Development Deparment (www.edd.ca.gov) Employment Levels Cotati, (Thousands of Employees), 2010-Sept. 2016 5 4 3 2 1 0 '10 '11 '12 Source: California Economic Development Deparment (www.edd.ca.gov) '13 '13 '14 '14 '15 '15 '16 '16 9% 9% Employed Population 16+ by Industry Cotati, 2016 17% 46% Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) Agriculture and Mining Information Wholesale Trade Transportation and Utilities Public Administration Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Construction Manufacturing Retail Trade Services Total Business Establishments 2016 Cloverdale 0 1500 3000 4500 6000 7500 9000 Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) Santa Rosa Petaluma Rohnert Park City of Sonoma Healdsburg Windsor Sebastopol Cotati PG. 8

COTATI RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE Median home prices in Cotati experienced a slight decline from $399,000 in 2014 to $387,750 in 2015. After the housing bubble burst in the late 2000 s and the subsequent recession, the median home price in Cotati exhibited an increasing trend since 2011. From 2014 to 2015 the number of houses sold in Rohnert Park/Cotati experienced the largest year-to-year gain since 2001 to 2002. 143 more houses sold in 2015, compared to 2014, with 622 houses sold in 2015. This represents the greatest number of houses sold in a single year since 2005. Median Price of an Existing Home Cotati/Rohnert Park, (Thousands of Dollars), 1999-2015 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 '99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15 Source: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (www.bareis.com) The average sales price of a home in Cotati for 2015 was $377,528. This makes Cotati one of the more affordable cities to live, on average, in the county. The average sales price for a home in Cotati is lower than the County average by $205,065. Average sales price of a home decreased slightly from the previous year from $383,993 in 2014 to $377,528 in 2015. 900 750 600 450 300 150 Total Number of Houses Sold Cotati/Rohnert Park, 1999-2015 0 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Source: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (www.bareis.com) Average Home Sales Price, by Sub-county Area (Thousands of Dollars), 2015 $1200 County Avg. $1000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Cloverdale Cotati Healdsburg Petaluma Rohnert Park Santa Rosa Sebastopol Sonoma Windsor Source: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (www.bareis.com) PG. 9

COTATI REAL ESTATE & CONSTRUCTION After 2006, the recession caused many retail outlets to shut down, raising retail property vacancy rates. Retail vacancy rates in Cotati/ Rohnert Park began to decline from their peak in late 2010. In the third quarter of 2016, the retail vacancy rate in Cotati/Rohnert Park reached 5.9%. As vacancy rates decrease, lease rates are expected to increase as businesses compete for the more limited available space. 15% 12% 9% 6% Commercial Property Vacancy Rates Sonoma County, Q1 2005-Q3 2016 Cotati s residential housing vacancy rates show a tight housing market in the city, in both rental and homeowner properties. Homeowner vacancy rates have hovered around 1.5% since 2011, while rental vacancy rates rest at 0% according to the U.S. Census. Although the vacancy rate may not actually be 0% due to a slight margin of error in U.S. Census estimates, this does show that the rental market in Cotati is incredibly tight. 3% '05 '06 Retail Source: Keegan & Coppin Company, Inc. (www.keegancoppin.com) 5% '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Residential Housing Vacancy Cotati, Rental and Homeowner Inventory '15 Rental '16 The value of non-residential and residential building permits increased between 2015 and 2016. The value of residential permits experienced a more dramatic increase than nonresidential. This represents a positive indication for construction activity in Cotati, especially much-needed residential housing. Although the value of permits lags behind the pre-recession peak, this recent increase is a good indicator for increased economic activity in the city. 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) Homeowner 2015 Value of Residential and Non-residential Building Permits Cotati, (Millions of Dollars), 2005-2016 $10 $8 Non-residential Residential $6 $4 $2 $0 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Source: California Homebuilding Foundation (www.mychf.org) PG. 10

COTATI CONSUMER ACTIVITY Cotati taxable sales continue to increase since the economic recovery began; however, taxable sales have yet to reach pre-recession levels. This continues the upward trend starting after taxable sales bottomed out in 2009. The gain seen in 2014, an increase of approximately 5.6 million, is consistent with the positive economic activity across Sonoma County. The county saw a 5.6% increase in taxable sales in 2014, while taxable sales in Cotati increased by 3.4%. Taxable sales capture the level of regional economic activity, with increasing trends representing greater consumer spending. $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Total Taxable Sales Cotati, (Millions of Dollars), 1997-2014 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Approximately 31% of Cotati residents spending goes towards housing, which is on par with the other cities and the county average. Transportation, other, and food make up the next three largest categories. Source: California Board of Equalization (www.boe.ca.gov) Consumer Spending, By Commodity Cotati, 2016 Education $4,554,137 Travel $5,816,946 Entertainment/Recreation $9,282,143 Cash Contributions/Gifts $12,455,146 Healthcare $16,131,164 Pensions and Social Security $21,672,786 Transportation $25,936,632 Food $26,350,807 Other* $26,715,030 Housing $67,096,569 Source: ESRI (www.bao.arcgis.com) *Other includes: Apparel and Services, Alcoholic Beverages, Household Operations, Housekeeping Supplies, Household Furnishings and Equipment, Life/Other Insurance, Miscellanous, Personal Care Products and Services, and Smoking Products PG. 11

EDUCATION COTATI The percentage of English learners in the Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified was 17.7% for the 2015-16 school year. This includes elementary, middle, and high school students. The ratio of English learners in the Cotati- Rohnert Park Unified is below the county average of 22.8%, as well as the state average of 22.1%. An English learner is defined as a student in kindergarten through grade twelve who, based on objective assessment, has not developed listening, speaking, reading, and writing proficiencies in English sufficient for participation in the regular school program. The average SAT score for a student from the Cotati-Rohnert Park in the 2014-15 school year was 1496, down from 1568 the prior school year. This places the Cotati-Rohnert Park below the county average of 1570 but above the state average of 1473. For a list of schools located in each district, visit http://www.scoe.org/pub/htdocs/finddistrict. html English Learners, by 2015-2016 Sebastopol Union Petaluma City Schools Cotati-Rohnert Park Windsor Unified California Sonoma County Santa Rosa City Schools Healdsburg Unified Sonoma Valley Unified Cloverdale Unified 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Percent of Total Students Source: California Department of Education (www.cde.ca.gov) Average SAT Score, by Sonoma County, 2014-2015 1750 2014-2015 School Year 3-Year Average: 2012-2015 1400 1050 700 350 0 Cloverdale Unified Sonoma Valley Unified Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified California Windsor Unified Source: California Department of Education (www.cde.ca.gov) Healdsburg Unified Sonoma County Santa Rosa City Schools Petaluma Joint Union High West Sonoma County Union High School (Sebastopol) PG. 12

COTATI CITY DATA SNAPSHOT Total Population 2016 Unemployment Rate Sept. 2016 Median Household Income 2016 Average Sales Price of a Home 2015 Percentage of English Learners 2015-16 Average Total SAT Scores 2014-15 Cloverdale 8,993 3.2% $54,516 $457,158 35.5% 1406 Cotati 7,503 5.0% $61,258 $377,528 17.7% 1496 Healdsburg 11,768 3.5% $60,240 $1,036,968 30.7% 1552 Petaluma 60,336 2.9% $77,149 $603,276 12.8% 1630 Rohnert Park 42,661 3.9% $58,611 $377,528 17.7% 1496 Santa Rosa 175,105 4.2% $58,729 $504,125 24.8% 1622 Sebastopol 7,647 3.2% $63,270 $801,302 11.9% 1631 City of Sonoma 11,342 3.4% $65,947 $883,989 31.8% 1455 Windsor 27,568 3.2% $80,847 $555,777 20.5% 1530 Sonoma County* 503,284 3.8% $63,910 $582,593 22.8% 1570 PG. 13

SOURCES COTATI NOTE ON DATA SOURCES The 2017 Cotati Local Economic Profile is a brief summary on various demographic, economic and social aspects of Cotati. This report is meant to act as a spot-in-time profile to reflect conditions in the city in a given year. Economic Development Board (EDB) research originates from information available from outside resources and previously published material. The 2017 Cotati Local Economic Profile offers partial or composite representations of raw data and cites respective source data sets. For more information, please see the listed sources. DATA SOURCES Bay Area Real Estate Information Services California Board of Equalization California Department of Education California Employment Development Department California Homebuilding Foundation ESRI Business Analyst Keegan & Coppin Company, Inc. United States Census Bureau The Local Economic Profile does not provide complete in-depth analyses of all facets of the incorporated cities or the county. The EDB believes all data contained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Use of data from an outside source does not represent an endorsement of any product or service by the EDB, its members or affiliates. The 2017 Cotati Local Economic Profile was developed from national and local data sources. Interested readers are encouraged to contact data source agencies or organizations for further research. Readers are also invited to suggest topics for future reports by calling (707) 565-7170 or e-mailing edb@sonoma-county.org. PG. 14

COTATI ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared by Sean Werkema. Please direct any questions or comments to 707-565- 7170 or by email at edb@sonoma-county.org. PG. 15

707-565 - 7170 141 STONY CIRCLE, STE. 110, SANTA ROSA, CA 95401