The Financial Agenda: Investment Climate in South America Guayaquil, Ecuador Clay B Dickinson Managing Director, Latin America Hotel and Hospitality Source: Traveltobank.com
Global Hotel Investment Market
$US Billions Global Hotel Transaction Volume Momentum is building after slow start to the year 120 Global Hotel Transaction Volume $30 billion in YTD August 2016 hotel transaction volumes 100 80 60 Global Americas EMEA Asia Pacific 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F YTD August 2016 volumes down 50%
Acquisition Volume by Buyer Type Private equity loses a lot of steam; buyer pool more fragmented and diversified in YTD 2016 100% Global Hotel Buyer Composition 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2015 YTD August 2016
Global Capital Inflows and Outflows of Hotel Investment H1 2016: China overtakes Middle East as largest capital exporter; North America becomes significantly bigger recipient than Europe Hotel Transactions: Capital Outflows and Inflows H1 2016 Asia ($1.0) Mainland China ($1.0) Middle East ($0.8) Europe ($0.6) $1.0 North America $2.0 Australasia $0.1 Figures are in $US Billions Outflows Inflows Outflows Inflows
Global Hotel Market Trends
Strong Growth Forecast for International Tourist Arrivals International tourist arrivals to reach 1.4 billion in 2020, representing 25% growth on today Source: WTTC
Lodging Industry Overview Hotel Performance: Average RevPAR growth 2013-2015 by Major Region
Lodging Industry Overview Lodging Supply Global Overview and Growth Rates for YTD August 2016 Note: Percentages pertain to total pipeline as % of existing stock. Note that not all hotels in pipeline phases will actually open. Arrow pointing up implies acceleration on 2011-2013 supply growth; downward arrow signifies deceleration in pace of supply additions
Latin America Hotel Investment Market
Latin America Hotel Investment Sentiment Survey Net balance of performance expectations declined slightly; generally brighter for medium term Note: This data is based on survey responses from 2015
Latin America HISS 2011-2015 Investors return criteria in capital cities has remained remarkably consistent over the past five years, generally showing improvement Initial Cap Rate Unlevered IRR 18% 24% 16% 22% 14% 12% 10% Brazil Mexico Colombia 20% 18% Brazil Mexico Colombia 8% 6% 4% 2% Chile Peru Argentina LatAM 16% 14% 12% Chile Peru Argentina LatAM 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note: This data is based on survey responses from 2015
Latin America HISS 2011-2015 Net balance of medium term performance expectations has declined Net Balance for Latin America Nearly a 36 point decrease 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Total transaction volume (in millions) Transaction Volumes and Source of Investment Investment in the region remains largely domestic, even in more established countries such as Mexico $1,400 Transaction Volume for Select Countries (2010-YTD August 2016) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico
Examples of Transactions in Latin America JLL has completed $440 million (USD) in sales throughout Latin America in the last five years US$76 million US$18 million Details Confidential Sheraton & Luxury Collection Santiago - 2016 Host Hotels & Resort Viceroy Rivera Maya - 2016 LaSalle Investment Management Blue Tree Fortaleza 2015 Brazil US$25 million US$6 million US$60 million NH Bogota - 2015 NH Hotel Group Golden Tulip Int. Foz Do Iguaucu - 2015 Brazil Hospitality Group Melia Mexico Reforma - 2013 Melia Hotels International
ADR (in USD) Local Lodging Performance Lima has one of the highest RevPAR rates in the region, albeit Mexico DF observed the highest growth at 5.8% $300 Lodging Performance for Select Cities YTD July 2016 Rio de Janeiro Lima $250 Buenos Aires Santiago São Paulo $200 $150 Bogotá Mexico DF $100 Quito Guayaquil $50 48% 53% 58% 63% 68% Source: STR, JLL Occupancy
RevPAR Performance Relative to Global Gateway Cities Under performing markets have suffered from natural disasters, oversupply and economic woes High performing markets have benefitted from strong visitation, positive political changes and cross border spending Paris Quito Guayaquil Houston Santiago Hong Kong Luxury Miami New York Rio De Janeiro Chicago London Singapore Luxury Sao Paulo Lima Beijing Top Tier Hotels Mexico City Tokyo Luxury Sydney 5 Star San Francisco Shanghai Top Tier Hotels Madrid Bogota Los Angeles Buenos Aires YTD July 2016 Revenue Per Available Room % Change (Local Currency) Selected Latin America Cities Global Gateway Cities Note: Buenos Aires high growth rate is partially attributable to increasing inflation. -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 17
What s Next? Encouraging dynamics may play a role in strengthening the region s investment activity Private equity funds in regional platform acquisitions in more consolidated markets has compelled other international institutional investors and operators to scout expansion opportunities in the region Steady political landscape on the horizon Strengthening international visitation and tourism growth Modest improvement in macroeconomic variables