For more information regarding the content of this publication, please contact: Marek Styczen, Project Officer - Enterprise Planning & Development The Environment Service Perth & Kinross Council Pullar House 35 Kinnoull Street PERTH PH1 5GD Perth and Kinross Economic Journal Quarter 2 2016 (April - June 2016) Tel 01738 477944 Email MStyczen@pkc.gov.uk We welcome your comments and feedback. The Journal is an electronic publication on the state of the local economy prepared and published by Planning & Development in Perth & Kinross Council. Quarter 2 2016 Highlights Perth & Kinross had 3rd lowest unemployment in Scotland. Youth unemployment figures are demonstrating marked improvements over last year. Unemployment figures for over-25s are relatively unchanged over 2015. 9 out of 10 Claimants in Perth City were resident either in Perth City North or. Construction was among top 3 industries for Start-up companies. The value of House Sales in the area between January and March 2016 were over 133 Million. 12 new business openings were recorded in. Labour Market Unemployment Jobseeker s Allowance Claimants Age Groups Best and Worst Performing Wards Benefit Claimants Unit Vacancy Rate Footfall Start-Up Gateway Start-Up Investment Planning Applications House Prices Market Volumes
Unemployment Perth & Kinross area remains among the very top local authority areas with the 3rd lowest Claimant Count rate in Scotland. The rate of 1.1% recorded in June 2016 is the same as the rate in June 2008, only several before the housing crisis and the recession. As of April 2016, the Claimant Count rate in Perth & Kinross area includes Universal Credit Claimant records. This should increase our Claimant numbers very slightly. Our key neighbouring Local Authority areas fared less favourably than Perth & Kinross in June 2016. Their rates ranged from 1.5% in Stirling to 3.6% in Dundee. % Claimant Count Rate Claimant Count Rate in Scottish Local Authorities Perth & Kinross and Neighbouring Areas, March 2016 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 Stirling, 1.6% Perth & Kinross, 1.2% Angus, 2.0% Fife, 2.5% Dundee City, 3.4% Local Authority Areas % Claimant Count Rate Claimant Count Rate Long-Term Trend: 2008-2016 5.0 Perth & Kinross Scotland 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Claimant Count rate in Perth & Kinross averaged 1.1% over the 12 between July 2015 and June 2016. June rate was 0.1 percentage points below the rate recorded a year before. The number of Claimants in Perth & Kinross dropped below 1,100 in April. In May and June, there were 1,050 Claimants in the area. The Scottish Claimant Count rate has been static at 2.2% across all of Quarter 2 2016. The Perth City Claimant Count rate of 1.8% remains above Perth & Kinross area but below Scottish average. As of June, there were 550 Claimants in Perth City. Source: NOMIS
Jobseeker s Allowance Claimant Count: Age Groups The end of Quarter 2 of 2016 saw further significant improvement in the number of youngest Jobseekers. Between June 2015 and June 2016, the figures for the 16-24 age group fell by 27.5% and there were only 185 Jobseeker s Allowance Claimants within that age group. The fall in the number of Claimants aged 25-49 was marginal at 4.6%. There were 520 Claimants within this Age Group. The number of Claimants aged 50-64 remained unchanged at 265 over the same time period. The Claimant rate for 16-24 year-olds fell from 1.5% to 1.2% just over the course of the 3 of Quarter 2. The rate compares very favourably to the 1.7% recorded a year before. The rates for 25-49 year-olds at 1.2%, and for 50-64 year-olds at 0.8%, were exactly the same as one year earlier. Jobseekers Allowance Rate (Aged 16-24) Perth & Kinross Scotland 3.0 2.0 0.0 Apr 2015 Jun 2015 Aug 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015 Feb 2016 April 2016 June 2016 Jobseekers Allowance Rate (Aged 25-49) Perth & Kinross Scotland 3.0 2.0 0.0 Apr 2015 Jun 2015 Aug 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015 Feb 2016 April 2016 June 2016 Jobseekers Allowance Rate (Aged 50-64) Perth & Kinross Scotland 3.0 2.0 0.0 Apr 2015 Jun 2015 Aug 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015 Feb 2016 April 2016 June 2016 These numbers exclude Universal Credit Claimants. Source: NOMIS
Jobseeker s Allowance Claimant Count : Age Groups and Duration 655 people claimed Jobseeker s Allowance for less than 6 at the end of the second Quarter of 2016. Between June 2015 and June 2016, the number dropped by almost 100. 140 (21.4%) of these short-term Claimants were below 25 years of age and 355 (or 54.2%) were aged 25-49. June 2015 June 2016 215 140 Claiming 0-6 Jobseekers Allowance Claimants aged 16-24 Claiming Duration 25 30 10 5 5 5 Claiming 6-12 Claiming 12-24 Claiming 24+ Those claiming for 6-12 increased in their numbers from 140 to 180 over the 12 from June 2015 to June 2016. The numbers of those claiming Jobseeker s Allowance longer term, on the other hand, fell. This was from 175 to 140 for those claiming for 1 year or longer. Of the long-term Claimants, only 10 (7.1%) were under 25 years of age. June 2015 June 2016 385 355 Claiming 0-6 Jobseekers Allowance Claimants aged 25-49 Claiming Duration 70 95 45 35 40 35 Claiming 6-12 Claiming 12-24 Claiming 24+ Jobseekers Allowance Claimants aged 50-64 Claiming Duration June 2015 June 2016 150 155 45 55 35 25 35 30 These numbers exclude Universal Credit Claimants. Source: NOMIS Claiming 0-6 Claiming 6-12 Claiming 12-24 Claiming 24+
Highland: 0.8% Strathearn: % Strathallan: 0.7% Strathtay: 0.7% Almond and Earn: 0.8% Blairgowrie and Glens: % Strathmore: 0.9% Carse of Gowrie: 0.7% Best and Worst Performing Wards The map illustrates how the wards in Perth & Kinross performed in terms of Claimant Count rate.* The rates recorded across the area in June 2016 range from 0.7% to 2.2%, compared to a slightly wider range of 0.7% to 2.5% a year before. In other words, the gap between the best and the worst wards has lessened. The lowest rate of 0.7% was in Carse of Cowrie, Strathallan and Strathtay. All the rural wards and Perth City South recorded Claimant Count Rate of % or below in June 2016, whereas and Perth City North were markedly higher at 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively. 475 of the 550 Claimants in Perth City (or, 86.4%) were resident in either City Centre or City North wards. Only had as high a rate as Scotland as a whole: 2.2%. Kinross-shire: 0.8% Perth City 52.4% of all Perth & Kinross Claimants were resident in Perth City. Scotland average: 2.2% Perth City North: 2.1% : 2.2% *As of April 2016, Claimant Count and related rates for Perth & Kinross area include Universal Credit Claimants. Perth City South: 0.9% 0.7% 2.2% Source: NOMIS
bereaved disabled others on income related benefit 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Benefit Claimant Rate by Statistical Group, Q1 2016 Perth & Kinross Scotland Benefit Claimants The latest benefit claimant data available at the time of publication was for the first Quarter of 2016. There were 9,380 benefit claimants in Perth & Kinross in Q1 2016, 180 less than a year before. This is a very small drop of less than 2% over the course of a year. The numbers are relatively static. carer lone parent ESA and incapacity benefits 1.3 1.6 0.6 5.7 7.9 The rate of Benefit Claimants was at 10.2% in the area, down from 10.4% in the previous year. It was also well below the Scottish level of 13.7%. Statistical Group allocation in the table below is an indication of the main reason people claim benefits. job seeker 1.2 1.8 % population receiving state benefits There were 400 more female benefit Claimants than there were male Benefit Claimants in Q1 2016. 10.6% of the female population was in receipt of state benefits, compared to 9.9% of the male population. 4,490 male Benefit Claimants 9.9% of male population are in receipt of state benefits 4,890 10.6% female Benefit Claimants of female population are in receipt of state benefits Source: Department for Work and Pensions
Unit Vacancy Rate business vacancy rose in Q2 2016, with the rate of 9.11% being above last year s 8.46%. The rate was also above the 8.02% rate 2 years before. Between April and June 2016, there were 12 new business openings against the backdrop of 10 closures, 2 moves and 1 re-opening. 9.11% Vacant Unit Rate, Footfall The month-to-month footfall numbers in the second Quarter of 2016 mirrored closely the numbers observed the year before. Only the April figure of 280,491 differed from previous year s figure to any noticeable degree (+2.79%), with May and June being 0.82% and 0.09% lower, respectively. The numbers are expected to stay at a similar level throughout the summer, with an autumnal drop before the rise in November December in line with seasonality trends. 12 number of new business openings in Perth City Centre, Q2 2016 Unit Vacancy Rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Perth City Vacant Units Rate 9.51 9.11 8.46 8.02 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2013 2014 2015 2016 Footfall Number 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-402,877 Visitors, June 2016 Numbers are usually lowest at start of year Footfall 2014 2015 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Perth & Kinross Council
Enterprise Start-up 2.0% more businesses started up in Perth & Kinross during the first six of this year compared with the corresponding period of last year. This growth rate ranks Perth & Kinross at 11 out of the 32 Scottish local authority areas. There were 70 new businesses started up in June 2016 in Perth & Kinross area, 10 fewer than the previous month and 11 fewer than in June 2015. Within the area, Kinross-shire saw the most start-ups; Strathmore saw the least. The make up of start-ups is Limited Companies 47.1%, Sole Traders 31.4%, Other For Profit Start-ups (mainly Partnerships) 5.7% and Not For Profit 15.7%. The top 3 industries account for 60.0% of the starts. Perth & Kinross accounted for 2.9% of all start-ups across the Scotland. No. of Start-ups 250 200 150 100 50 0 Start-ups in Perth & Kinross Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2015 2016 Top 3 Start up Industries Note: A Start-up reflects the opening of a first current account from a small business banking product range. They represent businesses new to banking or those previously operated through a personal account. The data exclude businesses operating through personal accounts. Real estate, professional services & support activities Recreational, personal & community service Construction Source: BankSearch
Investment Cost of Works in Perth & Kinross The monetary values reported below are an indication of investment, both under way in the reporting period, and planned within the following 3 years. The value of building works requiring a Building Warrant in Quarter 2 of 2016 was 71.9Million The figure in the same Quarter a year before was lower at 54.8Million. Quarter 2 in 2014 was lower still at 33.2Million. 71.9million Cost in Pound Sterling of Building Works requiring building warrant in Q2 2016 cost of works, Millions 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 33.2M 54.8M 71.9M *Due to legislation changes in October 2015, Perth & Kinross Council registered an unprecedented volume of applications in the preceding the changes, which reflected in the value of works reported for Q3 2015 (and possibly Q2 2015 to a lesser extent). For the same reason, it is impractical to treat these values as directly comparable with other reported figures. Planning Applications The number of new Planning Applications submitted to Perth & Kinross Council rose in the second quarter of the year to 487; this was, however, below the 572 in the same Quarter a year earlier. The number of determined applications at 517 was also at a lower level than the previous year s figure of 566 but considerably higher than the 363 in the previous Quarter. 600 400 200 0 Planning Applications in Perth & Kinross Registered Applications Determined Applications 572 566 487 517 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Source: Perth & Kinross Council
House Prices 178,022 164,326 300,000 250,000 Detached Average Residential Property Prices 251,040 Average House Price (All Types) Perth & Kinross Average House Price (All Types) Scotland 200,000 Semi-Detached 175,569 150,000 There was a drop in house prices in Q2 2016 in Perth & Kinross, with the mean residential property price of 178,022. This figure was over 13.5k above the Scottish average. 100,000 100,510 Average Perth & Kinross house prices were 9th highest among local authority areas in Scotland. 50,000 Flatted Perth and Kinross Scotland An average flatted property price in the area remained static, with an insignificant drop to 100,510 in Q2 2016. This was a mere 218 below the previous Quarter. 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2015 2016 The previously reported average for Scottish flatted property prices in Q1 has now been revised down to just over 123k. As a result, Q2 figure of 127,866 was an improvement. The average Perth & Kinross price for a detached property reached 251,040 in the second Quarter of the year, over 5.5k lower than the previous Quarter. The figure for Scotland as a whole was marginally higher than the previous Quarter and 12,039 lower than Perth & Kinross. Mean average semi-detached property price in the area at 175,569 was over 20k above the Scotland s equivalent. The prices of terraced properties (not shown in the graph) have been gradually declining over the last 12 and reached 141,259 in the second Quarter of 2016 for Perth & Kinross. The latest Scottish average, for comparison, was 132,700. Source: Registers of Scotland
in Perth & Kinross by Volume of Sales Market Volumes No. of Properties Sold 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 527 710 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 694 748 748 houses sold in Perth & Kinross area between April and June 2016, compared to 694 in the same Quarter a year earlier. Detached property sales at 259 constitute the largest proportion (34.6%) in the volume of sales. Houses sold in Perth & Kinross accounted for 2.9% of the housing stock sales in Scotland. 2013 2014 2015 2016 133 Million 4,233 Million value of residential property sales in Perth & Kinross, Q2 2016 value of residential property sales in Scotland, Q2 2016 Source: Registers of Scotland