US Lodging Real Estate Cycle Earnings Development Lending Transactions Peak New Hotel Openings Peak Earnings Peak Transaction Activity New Project Announcements Full Operating Recovery Wall St. Activity Early Transaction Recovery Main Street Debt Availability Conversions/Renovations Landing Zone?? Early Operating Recovery Recovery Expansion Cycle Peak X 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2016 2015 2017 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. www.lodgingeconometrics.com Rev. Rev. 10/1/15 11/16/16
Global Construction Pipeline By Projects & (000s) 2500 Winter 2017 Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast 2000 1,741 1,900 1,954 1,966 2,024 1500 1,276 1,343 1000 500 0 12 13 14 15 Fall 16 Year End 16 Year End 17 Projs 7,229 7,595 10,194 11,130 11,547
Global Construction Pipeline Top Franchise Companies Winter 2017 Under Construction Total Pipeline Projs Rms Projs Rms Marriott 918 173,671 2,150 363,675 Hilton 788 140,168 1,784 271,500 IHG 407 72,528 1,351 208,969 Hyatt 124 27,604 220 46,937 Accor 209 49,483 382 80,144
Global Construction Pipeline Select Luxury Brands Winter 2017 Open 2016 Under Construction Total Pipeline Projs Rms Projs Rms Projs Rms InterContinental 5 1,913 30 9,105 56 16,465 Fairmont Hotel 15 6,453 26 9,733 Four Seasons 5 743 22 4,196 35 6,296 Dusit Thani 1 160 9 2,465 18 4,920 Andaz 4 1,016 7 1,842 9 2,262 Viceroy 8 1,668 12 2,305 Like-Kind Unbranded 112 27,225 120 30,160 382 48,439
Global Construction Pipeline Under Construction Winter 2017 2% 18% 19% United States 196,409 Other Americas 80,658 36% 9% 8% Europe 87,037 Middle East 81,169 China 361,806 Other Asia 180,806 8% Other World Regions 23,575 Total 1,011,460 % By
Global Construction Pipeline Starts Next 12 Months Winter 2017 2% 14% 5% 8% 13% 8% 50% United States 268,843 Other Americas 40,370 Europe 40,060 Middle East 25,783 China 73,129 Other Asia 68,794 Other World Regions 7,564 Total 524,543 % By
Global Construction Pipeline Early Planning Winter 2017 3% 15% 31% United States 133,436 Other Americas 56,572 Europe 34,174 23% Middle East 29,731 China 101,107 7% 8% 13% Other Asia 65,975 Other World Regions 10,868 Total 430,625 % By
US Construction Pipeline By Projects & (000s) 900 Winter 2017 Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast 750 600 546 599 655 461 450 341 383 300 150 0 12 13 14 15 16 Year End 17 Projs 2,757 3,020 3,645 4,413 4,960
US Construction Pipeline By Chain Scale Unbranded Included Winter 2017 37% 9% 2% 2% 3% 12% 34% Projs Luxury 102 22,223 Upper Upscale 344 72,866 Upscale 1,482 199,484 Upper Midscale 2,187 223,730 Midscale 646 55,827 Economy 168 14,340 Casino 31 10,218 Total 4,960 598,688 % By
US Forecast New Hotel Openings Winter 2017 Forecast Actual 2018 140,595 2017 120,372 2016 98,990 2015 82,094 2014 63,468
US Construction Pipeline Top Ten Markets by Winter 2017 Under Construction Total Pipeline Projs Rms Projs Rms New York 101 17,711 192 30,541 Houston 41 4,833 169 18,373 Los Angeles 31 6,438 111 18,723 Dallas 57 7,171 140 17,291 Nashville 28 3,886 121 148,73
US Construction Pipeline Top Ten Markets by (cont d) Winter 2017 Under Construction Total Pipeline Projs Rms Projs Rms Miami 26 3,561 83 14,707 Washington DC 22 4,019 73 12,509 Chicago 16 3,318 71 11,614 Seattle 27 5,672 77 12,955 Atlanta 30 4,180 94 11,531
US Construction Pipeline Hilton Worldwide Winter 2017 9% 1% 3% 3% 6% 2% 1% Conrad Hotel 650 Waldorf=Astoria Collection 340 Canopy 3,426 Curio 3,392 12% Embassy Suites 7,641 26% 9% Hilton Hotel & Resort 2,594 Doubletree by Hilton 1,754 Hilton Garden Inn 16,284 26% Homewood Suites by Hilton 12,625 Hampton Inn & Suites 33,828 Home2 Suites by Hilton 34,196 Tru by Hilton 15,527 % By Total 132,257
US Construction Pipeline InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) Winter 2017 46% 10% 3% 3% 2% 1% 4% 15% 15% InterContinental 2,392 Kimpton Hotel 2,648 Crowne Plaza 1,402 Even Hotel 688 Hotel Indigo 3,811 Staybridge Suites 13,201 Holiday Inn 12,409 Holiday Inn Express 38,682 Candlewood Suites 9,157 Total 84,390 % By
US Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Luxury & Upper Upscale Winter 2017 12% 3% 4% 3% Edition 647 JW Marriott Hotel 1,837 4% 4% 5% Luxury Collection 578 W Hotel 1,413 Autograph Collection 6,215 8% Delta Hotel 700 23% Gaylord Hotel 1,803 Le Meridien 890 20% Marriott Hotel 5,203 Renaissance Hotel 2,072 3% 7% 3% Sheraton Hotel 943 Tribute 985 Westin Hotel 3,237 % By Total 26,523
US Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Upscale, Upper Midscale, Midscale & Economy Winter 2017 3% 20% 14% 12% 8% 9% AC Hotel by Marriott aloft Hotel 11,266 11,337 Courtyard 18,094 13% Element 5,970 Four Points 1,505 4% Residence Inn 23,564 SpringHill Suites 17,387 17% 1% Fairfield Inn 28,284 Moxy 4,318 TownePlace Suites 19,393 Total 141,118 % By
US Market Conditions Winter 2017 Operating Performance still growing but at a slower pace and nearing the end after a 77 month run Cheaper to Build a Hotel than to Buy a Hotel right now and will stay that way until Interest rate go up more than a full point at least Pipeline will keep growing through 2018 but will probably top out as operating performance softens Suppliers should continue to see sales growth for the next couple of years
Latin America Construction Pipeline By Projects & (000s) 200 Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast 160 120 108 122 130 145 151 154 158 80 40 0 12 13 14 15 Fall 16 Year End 16 Year End 17 Projs 656 749 786 838 892
Latin America Construction Pipeline Selected Markets by Under Construction Total Pipeline Projs Rms Projs Rms Sao Paulo 20 3,847 39 6,877 Cancun 2 1,034 10 6,605 Campinas 16 3,304 35 6,349 Rio de Janeiro 16 3,264 20 3,968 Lima 5 514 23 3,534
Latin America Construction Pipeline Hilton Worldwide 5% 30% 5% 5% 4% Conrad Hotel 407 Curio 450 Embassy Suites 379 18% Hilton Hotel & Resort DoubleTree by Hilton 1,632 224 Hilton Garden Inn 2,721 3% Homewood Suites by Hilton 431 31% Hampton Inn & Suites 2,647 Total 8,891 % By
Latin America Construction Pipeline InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 4% 3% 5% 9% InterContinental 140 5% Kimpton 266 Crowne Plaza 482 Staybridge Suites 240 48% Holiday Inn 1,324 26% Holiday Inn Express 2,469 Candlewood Suites 202 Total 5,123 % By
Latin America Construction Pipeline Best Western 4% 19% Best Western Premier 348 55% 16% 5% Best Western Plus 298 Vib 100 Best Western 1,022 Glo 80 Total 1,848 % By
Latin America Construction Pipeline Marriott International Luxury & Upper Upscale 9% 5% 6% JW Marriott Hotel 250 14% 15% Luxury Collection 332 Ritz-Carlton 783 4% 35% 5% 7% St. Regis 246 W Hotel 383 Marriott Hotel 1,854 Renaissance Hotel 201 Sheraton Hotel 739 Westin Hotel 479 Total 5,267 % By
Latin America Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Upscale, Upper Midscale, Midscale & Economy 8% 28% 6% 21% 24% 14% AC Hotel by Marriott 1,802 aloft 1,052 Courtyard 1,578 Four Points 483 Residence Inn 583 Fairfield Inn 2,161 Total 7,659 % By
Latin America Market Conditions Mexico has seen the most pipeline growth over the past two years. Many brands seeking to expand in the region Luxury and Resort Developments are coming back in the Caribbean and Central America Brazil has seen Development decline now that the Global events have finished Multiple Developers continue to seek opportunities including mixed use and timeshare
Europe Construction Pipeline By Projects & (000s) 200 Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast 160 127 126 140 147 161 164 169 120 80 40 0 12 13 14 15 Fall 16 Year End 16 Year End 17 Projs 770 734 852 897 1,008
Europe Construction Pipeline Selected Markets by Under Construction Total Pipeline Projs Rms Projs Rms London 63 12,402 94 17,651 Moscow 16 4,732 28 7,085 Istanbul 23 4,528 35 6,222 Berlin 17 5,144 22 6,194 Edinburgh 9 1,632 23 4,122
Europe Construction Pipeline Hilton Worldwide 39% 1% 2% 29% 14% 3% Canopy by Hilton 342 Curio 541 Hilton Hotel & Resort 3,308 Doubletree 3,113 Hilton Garden Inn 6,741 Hampton Inn 9,072 Total 23,117 % By
Europe Construction Pipeline InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 2% 1% 11% 40% 7% 3% InterContinental 470 Kimpton Hotel 149 Crowne Plaza 2,162 Hotel Indigo 1,512 Staybridge Suites 511 37% 37% Holiday Inn 7,390 Holiday Inn Express 8,002 Total 20,196 % By
Europe Construction Pipeline Best Western 46% 8% 43% Best Western Premier 602 Best Western Plus 3,251 Best Western Plus Executive Residency 158 Vib 84 Best Western 3,551 Total 7,646 2% 1% % By
Europe Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Luxury & Upper Upscale 1% 13% 3% 23% 1% 8% 5% Bulgari 60 3% 4% Edition 350 2% Luxury Collection 192 Ritz Carlton 287 St Regis 120 17% W Hotel 1,157 Autograph Collection 1,230 Le Meridien 110 Marriott Hotel 1,560 18% Renaissance Hotel 225 Sheraton Hotel 858 2% Tribute 74 Westin Hotel 570 % By Total 6,793
Europe Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Upscale, Upper Midscale, Midscale & Economy 4% 21% 9% AC Hotel 517 aloft 1,231 49% 21% Courtyard 2,962 element 78 Four Points 1,567 71% 11% 1% Residence Inn 787 Moxy 6,898 6% 14,040 % By
Europe Market Conditions Mid-Year 2016 France has struggled in 2016 the hope is 2017 will turn around quickly Currency fluxuations have really hurt the region Consolidation is underway in this region and will likely drive opportunities for Suppliers in the near term Likely to remain stale or without direction for the next couple of years
Middle East Construction Pipeline By Projects & (000s) 160 Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast 132 137 143 150 120 80 92 78 95 40 0 12 13 14 15 Fall 16 Year End 16 Year End 17 Projs 321 276 356 442 513
Middle East Construction Pipeline Selected Markets by Under Construction Total Pipeline Projs Rms Projs Rms Dubai 63 18,175 118 33,053 Makkah 21 13,011 26 19,866 Riyadh 37 7,836 60 12,123 Doha 32 6,775 47 10,076 Jeddah 20 4,087 40 8,642
Middle East Construction Pipeline Hilton Worldwide 2% 2% 5% 3% 1% 15% Conrad Hotel 483 Waldorf=Astoria Collection 497 Curio Collection by Hilton 651 Embassy Suites by Hilton 250 24% 48% Hilton Hotel & Resort 11,070 Doubletree by Hilton 5,439 Hilton Garden Inn 3,376 Hampton Inn 1,071 Total 22,837 % By
Middle East Construction Pipeline InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 34% 22% InterContinental 1,814 Crowne Plaza 2,008 Hotel Indigo 685 24% Staybridge Suites 900 Holiday Inn 2,837 1 8% Total 8,244 % By
Middle East Construction Pipeline Best Western 58% 36% Best Western Premier 1,012 Best Western Plus 180 Best Western 1,624 Total 2,816 6% % By
Middle East Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Luxury & Upper Upscale 4% 9% 15% 1% 4% Bulgari 120 10% Edition 507 17% JW Marriott 2,146 Luxury Collection 630 Ritz Carlton 808 5% St Regis W Hotel 709 1,493 6% Autograph Collection Le Meridien 586 893 6% Marriott Hotel 1,971 7% 5% 12% Renaissance Hotel 512 Sheraton Hotel 1,196 Westin Hotel 1,290 % By Total 12,861
Middle East Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Upscale, Upper Midscale, Midscale & Economy 2% 2% 24% 12% 11% 26% 25% aloft 2,894 Courtyard 2,787 Element 1,270 Four Points 2,628 Residence Inn 1,301 Fairfield Inn 200 Total 11,080 % By
Middle East Market Conditions Middle East is booming again difference is growth is throughout the Chain Scales and not just the high end In some places they are building millions of square feet in mixed use with several hotels Trend is towards more select service since most of the Luxury projects and locations were built last cycle
Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline By Projects & (000s) 1000 800 Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast 855 862 851 837 825 600 558 582 400 200 0 12 13 14 15 Fall 16 Year End 16 Year End 17 Projs 2,401 2,464 4,160 4,105 3,895
Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Selected Markets by Under Construction Total Pipeline Projs Rms Projs Rms Seoul 70 16,003 159 31,233 Chengdu 56 11,763 88 23,582 Sanya 49 20,408 60 22,755 Shanghai 79 15,684 109 22,071 Jakarta 69 13,224 118 20,885
Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Hilton Worldwide 17% 28% 10% 5% 2% <1% 37% Conrad Hotel 3,671 Waldorf=Astoria Collection 1,265 Canopy 160 Curio 212 Embassy Suites 300 Hilton Hotels & Resort 27,880 Doubletree by Hilton 21,295 Hilton Garden Inn 12,435 Hampton Inn 7,674 Total 74,892 % By
Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 26% 31% 13% 8% 19% 4% InterContinental 11,105 Crowne Plaza 16,212 Hotel Indigo 3,320 Hualuxe Hotel & Resort 6,938 Holiday Inn 27,127 Holiday Inn Express 22,214 Total 86,916 % By
Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Best Western 1% 5% 28% 44% 22% Best Western Premiere 3,375 Best Western Plus 6,790 Vib 809 Best Western 4,273 Glo 165 Total 15,412 % By
Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Luxury & Upper Upscale 0% 15% 8% 0% 2% 11% 3% 7% Bulgari 329 Edition 1,493 JW Marriott Hotel 9,102 Luxury Collection 2,828 Ritz Carlton 5,528 St Regis 3,097 7% 29% 8% 4% 5% 2% W Hotel 3,850 Autograph Collection 1,451 Le Meridien 6,492 Marriott Hotel 23,884 Renaissance Hotel 5,727 Sheraton Hotel 12,484 Tribute 213 % By Westin Hotel 6,592 Total 83,070
Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Marriott International - Upscale, Upper Midscale, Midscale & Economy 1% 32% 11% 6% 12% 39% aloft 4,553 Courtyard 15,062 element 2,274 Four Points 12,523 Fairfield Inn 4,433 Moxy 110 Total 38,955 % By
Asia Pacific Market Conditions China has seen some opening delays on Under Construction projects several markets have seen sharp demand declines Southeast Asia Pipeline growing rapidly Indonesia particularly interesting with several new brands being started Regional operating performance is choppy mostly driven by China declines Cheaper to Buy than build hotels in this region and pipeline growth likely slowing