Port Everglades Master/Vision Plan Update Cruise and Liquid Bulk Charrette Meeting June 18, 2009 1
The purpose of this presentation was to review the progress of the update to the 2006 Master/Vision Plan with the audience. The information contained herein is in draft form and was accompanied by a verbal description during the presentation and has not been approved by Broward County. Since the following slides are in draft form the information thereon is subject to change. 2
Progress to Date Working on Phase I Update Updating Element 1: Existing Conditions Assessment - Discussed at 3-27-09 Tenant/Stakeholder Meeting Updating Element 2: Market Assessment Updating Element 3: Plan Development 3
Updating Element 2: Market Assessment Bermello, Ajamil & Partners - Cruise Martin & Associates - Containerized Cargo Purvin & Gertz - Liquid Bulk Sclar & Associates - Non-Containerized Cargo (For 20-year Design Horizon; 2009 to 2029) 4
Cruise Market Analysis for Port Everglades Prepared by: Bermello, Ajamil & Partners 5
Steady Expansion Conventional cruise passengers, 1995-2008 Since 1995, worldwide passenger levels have tripled Sources: CLIA, PSA, B&A, 2009 6
Global Growth Trends Constrained by ships (supply), not passengers (demand); Cruise lines rapidly expanding in several cruise regions; repeat clientele saturation of traditional ports and regions Non-US passengers are taking more cruises; Industry is controlled by handful of profitable operators; Industry outperforms others during recession by: shifting capacity from longer to short, closer-to-home, more affordable segments offer deep discounting shift of land based to cruise - perception of all-inclusive value 7
New Cruise Ship Introductions 2008 2009 2010 2011/12 AIDA 2,050 AII DA 2,050 AIDA 2,174 AIDA 2,174 Carnival 2,974 Carniv al 3,652 Celebrity 2,850 Carnival 3,652 Celebrity 2,850 Celebrity 2,850 Costa 2,260 Celebrity 2,850 HAL 2,100 Costa 2,260 Cunard 2,092 Costa 3,012 MSC 2,568 Costa 3,004 HAL 2,100 Disney 2,500 MSC 3,300 MSC 3,300 NCL 4,200 Oceania 1,260 Princess 3,100 RCI 5,400 MSC 2,550 Seabourn 450 P&O Cruises 3,100 Pearl 210 Oceania 1,260 MSC 2,550 RCI 3,643 Seabourn 450 P&O Cruises 3,076 AIDA 2,174 Pearl 210 ACL 104 RCI 5,400 Celebrity 2,850 Silverseas 540 Seabourn 450 Costa 3,012 Ponant 264 Disney 2,500 Ponant 264 MSC 2,550 Oceania 1,260 10 11 13 8/6 (25,895) (23,836) (28,940) (18,448/14, 14,346) 346) 48 New Ships / 111,465 New Berths Sources: B&A and Seatrade, 2009 8
Projected North American Berths Inclusive of estimated withdrawals from service through 2020 2029 607,754 533,157 458,560 2008 267,013 Net North America n berth inventory anticipated to add an additional 112,000 to 220,000 berths by 2020 Source: B&A, 2009. 9
Projected North American Passengers 30,000,000 Passengers 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 18.4 M 2008 = 11.0 M 15.9 M 2020 = 15.7 M 2029 21.0 M 0 '95 '97 '99 '01 ' 03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '25 '27 '29 Low Mid High Source: B&A, 2009. 10
Major Cruise Corporations Carnival Corp, 48% RCCL, 24% NCL, 7% MSC, 6% Other, 15% Source: Cruise Industry News, B&A, 2009. 11
N.A. capacity ranking by region Alaska 4 5 Mexico Wes t Caribbean N. Europe 3 2 1 Mediterranean Source: CLIA, and B&A 2009. 12
Strengths include: Cruise Overview Access to regional consumers; High quality tourism infrastructure and tourist offer; Deepwater marine access; New Terminal 18; Number and length of cruise berths. 13
Cruise Summary Cruise passenger throughput increased by 76.4% between 2000 and 2009 (approx. 6.95% annually); Oasis of the Seas 2010 FY Allure of the Seas 2011 FY Adding 1.2-million revenue passengers in 2 years Multi-Day cruise calls falling with larger ships deployed to Port Everglades; and, Daily & Non-conventional cruise is a wildcard due to market influences. Bahamas Celebration added in March 2009 14
Cruise Revenue Passenger Growth, FY1996-FY2009 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 2,100,000 000 2,500, 000 2,250, 000 2,390, 000 2,730, 3,063,000 000 3,484, 000 3,380, 4,075,000 3,786,000 446,000 3, 3,398,000 3,212,000 3,758,000 500,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: B&A, 2009. 15
Cruise Line Activity, FY2010 Projected Day, 16% Others, 1% Carnival, 16% Celebrity, 6% Costa, 5% RCI, 27% HAL, 11% Princess, 26% MSC, 4% Source: B&A, 2009. 16
70% Daily Traffic Comparison 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 SAT/SUN MON/FRI MID WEEK Source: B&A, 2009. 17
Port Everglades And Port Of Miami Growth 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Port Everglades Port of Miami Source: B&A, 2009. 18
Primary Cruise Target Regions Galveston UNITED STATES New Orleans North MEXICO Mexico City Acapulco North Pacific Ocean Vera Cruz Gulf of Mexico Cozumel BELIZE Turneffe Is. Roatan Guanaja Is. Puerto Barrios Puerto Cortes HONDURAS GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR Port Everglades Key West PANAMA Tampa Miami Western Caribbean Western Caribbean Havana Cancun Puerto Morelos CUBA Playa del Carmen Belize City Georgetown NICARAGUA nlimó Puerto Caldera COSTA RICA GRAND CAYMAN Montego Bay JAMAICA Freeport BAHAMAS Nassau Ocho Rios Port Antonio Kingston Caribbean Sea Providencia Is. San Andres Bahamas Lower Western Caribbean HAITI San Blas Is. Transcanal Cristobal Panama Cartagena Balboa Panama Canal Medellin Atlantic Ocean Eastern Caribbean CapHaitien PuertoPlata Port-au-Prince DOMINICA REPUBLIC ARUBA Santo Domingo PUERTORICO SanJuan ST. THOMAS (U.S. VIRGINIS.) ST. CROIX NEVIS ST. CHRISTOPHER Willemstad Caracas VENEZUELA ST. JOHNS (U.S. VIRGINIS.) ANGUILLA ST. MAARTIN BARBUDA ANTIGUA ST. VINCENT GUADELOUPE DOMINICA MARTINIQUE Fort-de-France ST. LUCIA Lower Southern BONAIRE CURACAO Caribbean Margarita Is. GRENADA Georgetown G BARBADOS Bridgetown Port-of-Spain TRINIDAD & TOBAGO Bogotá Cali COLOMBIA BRAZIL UYANA 19
35,000,000 N.A. Capacity Placement Primary Influence on P.E. 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Caribbean Bahamas Source: B&A, 2009. 20
Caribbean Growth Factors N.A. lines trending toward US homeports and key Caribbean homeports to reach lower Caribbean Carnival controls majority of all beds in the region NCL focusing on US market - expanding presence RCI moving out small ships in favor of larger ships Consumer demand for value for money Economic downturn growing shorter cruises 21
10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 Range Of Revenue Passenger Projections 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 2009 3.7 M 2029 6.0 M 5.6 M 5.4 M 4.0 M 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2000 2002 2002 2004 2004 2006 2006 2008 2008 Historical B MID Daily & Non-conventional l 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2026 2026 2028 2028 A C SCENARIOS MOST L I IKLEY (Combined Conv. & Daily) Source: B&A, 2009. 22
2,500 Passengers Per Ship Growth 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Multi-Day Conventional Daily Non-Conventional Source: B&A, 2009. 23
5,000 Passengers Per Ship Projections 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Multi-Day Conventional Daily Non-Conventional Multi-Day Growth Daily Growth Multi-Day (Genesis Adjusted) Source: B&A, 2009. 24
3,0000 Ship Call Projections 2,5000 2,0000 1,5000 1,0000 500 2009 1,071 2029 981 643 611 475 354 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 His to ric al C Scenarios B MID Dail ily & No n-co nve ntio nal A Mos t Like l ly ((Com bined ed) Source: B&A, 2009. 25
850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Monthly Passenger Traffic OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2029 Source: B&A, 2009. 26
Purvin & Gertz - Liquid Bulk Presented by Stephen Jones 27
Light Product Demand 1000 Light Product Demand (MB/D) Population (Millions) 25 Light product demand forecast mostly population driven 900 800 700 FL Lt Prod Dmd FL Pop 20 U.S. light product growth (0.1)% per yr PADD I light product growth (0.1)% per yr 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PE Lt Prod Dmd PE Pop '99 '04 '09 '14 '19 '24 '29 15 10 5 0 FL light product growth 0.7% per yr PE light product growth 0.5% per yr U.S. population growth 0.9% per yr PADD I population growth 0.8% per yr FL population growth 1.9% per yr PE population growth 1.4% per yr 28
Port Competition Seven major commercial ports in Florida Currently only two other ports have diversified petroleum operations Tampa and Jacksonville Only Tampa directly competes with Port Everglades Other ports reviewed include: Palm Beach, Canaveral, Manatee and Miami. The BORCO terminal was also reviewed Port Canaveral is currently adding 2.7 million barrels of petroleum storage capacity that will compete directly with the Port Late 2009 startup Tampa adding an additional 1.1 million barrels of storage that is to be operational by January 2010 Utilization rates currently very high, additional capacity to help meet future demand increases Possible delay in project due to funding issues Competitive interfaces are accounted for in the throughput outlook 29
Port Everglades Throughput 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 MB/D Avgas Crude Oil Asphalt Propane Fuel Oil Diesel Jet & Kerosene Gasoline '99 '04 '09 '14 '19 '24 '29 Throughput flat through 2010, 0.9% per year increase thereafter Gasoline will continue to be largest throughput volumes Distillate to become larger percentage of throughput Biofuels and greater number of fuel grades to create additional complexities 30
Vessel Calls at Port Everglades 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Calls per Year '99 '04 '09 '14 '19 '24 '29 Foreign Tanker Domestic Tanker Barge Decrease in vessel calls through 2010 0.4% increase per year from 2011 through 2029 Trend toward some larger foreign tankers, therefore less calls Barges and foreign tankers have been replacing domestic tankers in recent years New Jones Act tankers currently being added to fleets and under construction are expected to recover much of lost market share 31
Additional Considerations Despite the recent market demand downturn, several other factors must be considered when making decisions regarding the Port s liquid bulk infrastructure. Deliveries to the Port are not ratable and annual average volumes may not reflect peak activity at the Port Continued improvements to reduce demurrage should create a competitive advantage and help preserve market share The increased number of terminal operators is adding ship calls to the Port New fuels have created a complexity not previously managed by the Port. Additional products such as biodiesel, ethanol, and several fuel grades may require additional dock piping, tankage and calls Inherent uncertainty in the planning basis (forecast) suggests a need to monitor market conditions and maintain infrastructure improvement plans. 32
Common Observations from Tenant/Stakeholder Discussions Operators expect throughput to be flat or down slightly over the next few years No significant changes are expected in mix of ships versus barge traffic Preference for using larger vessels has highlighted the need for loading arms with wider operating envelope Periodic high port traffic and congestion appear to hinder petroleum vessel movements New ethanol requirements for supplying finished gasoline add complexity to cover demand during hurricane events 33
Updating Element 3: Plan Development Updating Project Development: - Midport Berth Expansion - Northport Berth Expansion - Carve Out of Convention Center - By-Pass Road Development - Port Wide Traffic and Parking Strategies 34
Midport and Northport Berth Expansion Location of berth(s) for cruise ships to accommodate: Vessel LOA: 1100 +/- feet Location of berth(s) for liquid bulk ships Location of bulk and general cargo ships 35
Midport Berth Expansion Location of berth(s) for panamax ships to accommodate: Existing crane height of 160 feet AMSL Vessel LOA: 900 feet Berth 27 expansion for cruise ships Location of Ferry Vessels? 36
37
38
Midport Parking Expansion Location of near term and far term structured parking facilities Carve Out of Convention Center Identification of security infrastructure requirements for CT 2 & 4 39
By-Pass Road 40
Port-Wide Projects Incorporation of Locally Preferred Plan for Harbor Dredging and Widening Incorporation of Updates to the Bulkhead Conditions Assessment Location of ID center Traffic and Parking Strategies 41
Traffic Projections through the Gates Location: McIntosh Road s/o Eller Drive Start Date 04/01/09 Direction: N Direction: S Combined Total 24-Hour Totals 4216 4113 8329 Peak Volume Hour Volume Hour Volume Hour Volume AM 0945 444 AM 0645 452 AM 0945 841 PM 1430 454 PM 1200 393 PM 1350 784 Daily 1430 454 Daily 0645 452 Daily 0945 841 Truck Percentage 19.69 28.84 24.40 42
Parking Projections Parameter Parking Fac ility Additional Parking Midport Northport T-19 S urface L ot Total S paces P arking C apacity 1,950 2,350 404 4,704 P eak Month Overnight Dec-08 Mar-08 Nov-08 Average peak Month Overnight 1,622 955 250 2,827 High P eak Month Overnight 1,872 1,229 404 3,505 C T-18 600 43
5-Year Plan to be Updated to Fiscal Years 2010 to 2014 2006 Plan to be Updated 44
10-Year Vision Plan to be Updated to Fiscal Years 2015 to 2019 2006 Plan to be Updated 45
20-Year Vision Plan to be Updated to Fiscal Years 2020 to 2029 2006 Plan to be Updated 46
Next Steps All Business Sectors to meet for Summary of Comments - June 19, 2009; 10:00 am to 12:00 noon; Port Everglades Administration Building; Auditorium 47