AerCap Holdings N.V. Aengus Kelly, CEO January 2017
Industry Update
Looking Back PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH Air traffic growth in 2016 remained robust, short-haul at 5.6% and long-haul at 6.4% 1 CHINA SLOWING GDP GROWTH Unaffected by slower than expected growth, passenger traffic in China grew steadily at 11.2% in 2016 1 HIGHER AIRLINE PROFITABILITY Highest airline profitability in the industry s history with $36 billion of net profit expected in 2016 2 TOP 2016 DEVELOPMENTS 2016 looked a lot like 2015 with a backdrop of low fuel prices, strong traffic growth and an overall profitable year for the industry ADDITIONAL CAPITAL New entrants attracted by stable return profile of asset class WIDEBODY CONCERNS Concerns about OEM production levels and overcapacity with reduced run rates for 777 and A380 LESSOR CONSOLIDATION? Increased M&A activity within the leasing community (1) IATA Passenger Analysis RPK % traffic growth for January November 2016 (2) IATA December 2016 3 3 4
Looking Ahead HEALTHY DEMAND FOR AIRCRAFT Strong airline profitability and GDP growth forecasts bode well for aircraft demand despite some deferral announcements FURTHER M&A ACTIVITY Consolidation and emergence of new investors drawn by return profile RISING INTEREST RATES Rising interest rates expected to impact lease rates and debt costs 2017 OUTLOOK: STABLE GROWTH The market expected to carry on with stable growth, driven by the eighth year in a row of aggregate airline profitability FINANCING ENVIRONMENT Availability of financing remains robust with receptive Capital Markets GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE An evolving situation too early to assess impact U.S. DOLLAR STRENGTH Appreciation of U.S. Dollar an area of focus for some emerging economies 3 4 4
Global Trends Robust industry performance translating into strong aircraft demand 5.1% 4.0B 2017 World Traffic RPK Growth From 5.9% in 2016 2017 Total Passengers From 3.8B in 2016 30B 8 2017 Total Net Profit From $36B in 2016 Years of Industry Profitability Airline industry profits reached $35.6 billion in 2016 and are forecasted at $29.8 billion in 2017 Airlines profitability expected to continue to drive capacity increases The demand stimulus from lower oil prices will taper off in 2017, slowing traffic growth to 5.1% (from 5.9% in 2016) North America: 2.5% and Latin America: 4.0% Europe: 4.0%, Middle East: 9.0%, and Africa: 4.5% Asia Pacific: 7.0% IATA December 2016 Actual or estimate for 2016 and forecast for 2017 for system-wide global commercial airlines 3 5 4
Air Travel Resilience Air travel remains resilient in an unpredictable world Air Traffic Growth 1 (RPKs, billion per month) Peak oil $147/bbl Financial crisis Euro crisis MERS Ebola ISIS Russian crisis, Zika Brazil China, Brexit Turkey 650 600 550 500 450 Average 5.5% growth 400 350 300 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ACTS OF TERROR (1) IATA Air Passenger Analysis, total passenger market 3 6 4
Middle Class Is Growing and Flying Middle Class to move from 2.8 billion to 4.8 billion in 20 years Middle Class (millions of people) 1 5,000 History Forecast 4,830 4,000 3,776 3,000 2,792 3,528 Emerging Countries 2,000 1,000 0 1,297 1,867 911 455 66 130 2,602 1,738 206 310 441 776 826 848 864 861 1995e 2 2005 2015 2025 2035 Developing Countries Mature Countries 5.7 6.5 7.2 8.1 8.8 World population (billion) 23% 29% 38% 46% 55% % of world population (1) Oxford Economics, Airbus; Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices (2) Estimate split for 1995 by region 3 7 4
Emerging Middle Class The world s emerging Middle Class lives in Asia Pacific World Population Distribution (2016) 1 CHINA 1.38 billion 140+ cities with over 1 million inhabitants 2,765 total aircraft in operation 530 total aircraft on order INDIA 1.33 billion 50+ cities with over 1 million inhabitants 480 total aircraft in operation 696 total aircraft on order U.S. 324 million 50+ cities with over 1 million inhabitants 5,937 total aircraft in operation 1,648 total aircraft on order (1) United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division; Ascend Fleet Database 3 8 4
Airlines Need Over 39,600 New Aircraft Airlines and lessors are expected to receive 5 new aircraft every day for the next 20 years Global Commercial Aircraft Fleet 1 Growth Replacement Stay in service ~3.5% Annual Growth 45,240 North America 21% 22,510 22,730 39,620 NEW AIRCRAFT Asia Pacific 38% Latin America 8% 16,890 22,510 5,620 2015 2035 Europe 19% C.I.S. 3% Middle East 8% Africa 3% (1) Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016 (includes regional jets) 3 9 4
China / India Interconnectivity Interconnectivity between China and India is underserved In Total Less Than 6 Flights per Day Joining 2.7 Billion People Between China and India International City Pairs Daily Flights China to India City Pairs Daily Flights New York - London 31 Dublin - London 43 Paris - Berlin 11 Los Angeles Mexico City 11 Hong Kong Taipei 40 Jakarta - Singapore 39 Kuala Lumpur - Jakarta 22 Shanghai - Mumbai 0 Beijing - Delhi < 1 Beijing - Mumbai < 1 Shanghai - Delhi 2 Kunming - Kolkata 1 Guangzhou - Delhi 2 Source: SRS Analyzer based on full year 2016 flights 3 10 4
AerCap Update
Where is the Aircraft Market? AerCap leased, purchased and sold 1,112 aircraft since July 2014 1 570 LEASED 753 104 255 183 LEASED 55 PURCHASED 800 NARROWBODY LEASED PURCHASED SOLD 1,112 AIRCRAFT TRANSACTIONS 312 49 WIDEBODY PURCHASED 175 SOLD 80 SOLD (1) No. of transactions from July 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 (includes owned and managed aircraft) 3 12 4
Lease Transactions AerCap executed 753 lease transactions for new and used aircraft since July 2014 1 202 New Aircraft Leases 551 Used Aircraft Leases Type # of Aircraft Type # of Aircraft Airbus A320 Family 105 Airbus A350 14 Boeing 737 Family 37 Boeing 787 33 Embraer E190/195-E2 13 Airbus A320 Family 244 Airbus A330 59 Boeing 737 Family 158 Boeing 767 22 Boeing 777 39 Other Narrowbody 13 Other Widebody 16 (1) No. of transactions from July 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 (includes owned and managed aircraft) 3 13 4
Aircraft Purchases and Sales AerCap purchased 104 new aircraft and sold 255 aircraft since July 2014 1 104 New Aircraft Purchases 255 Aircraft Sales Type # of Aircraft Type # of Aircraft Airbus A320 Family 21 Airbus A330 1 Airbus A350 10 Boeing 737 Family 34 Boeing 787 38 Airbus A320 Family 83 Airbus A330 27 Boeing 737 Family 66 Boeing 757 21 Boeing 767 11 Boeing 777 14 Boeing 787 2 Other Narrowbody 5 Other Widebody 26 (1) No. of transactions from July 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 (includes owned and managed aircraft) 3 14 4
What to Watch in 2017 We expect stable growth with these key areas of focus in 2017 Strong passenger traffic Stable demand for aircraft Impact of strong U.S. Dollar Consolidation and emergence of new investors Rising interest rate environment Geopolitical changes 3 15 4
Q&A
Disclaimer Incl. Forward Looking Statements & Safe Harbor This presentation contains certain statements, estimates and forecasts with respect to future performance and events. These statements, estimates and forecasts are forward-looking statements. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as may, might, should, expect, plan, intend, estimate, anticipate, believe, predict, potential or continue or the negatives thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this presentation are forward-looking statements and are based on various underlying assumptions and expectations and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and assumptions, may include projections of our future financial performance based on our growth strategies and anticipated trends in our business. These statements are only predictions based on our current expectations and projections about future events. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity performance or achievements to differ materially from the results, level of activity, performance or achievements expressed or implied in the forwardlooking statements. As a result, there can be no assurance that the forwardlooking statements included in this presentation will prove to be accurate or correct. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the future performance or events described in the forward-looking statements in this presentation might not occur. Accordingly, you should not rely upon forwardlooking statements as a prediction of actual results and we do not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any of these forward-looking statements. We do not undertake any obligation to, and will not, update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information in this document is the property of AerCap Holdings N.V. and its subsidiaries and may not be copied or communicated to a fourth party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of AerCap Holdings N.V. and its subsidiaries. No warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon AerCap Holdings N.V. or any of its subsidiaries or associated companies. 3 17 4
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