Long term morphological analysis and simulations Dr.-Ing. Markus Promny Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde / Federal Institute of Hydrology GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 1
1D-models of German waterways area: river Rhine, (river Elbe) input: climate projections -> run-off time series dredging and dumping scenarios: - no d&d - d&d constant over time as mean value of 1993-2006 - d&d dependent on flow depth (simple algorithm) aim: prediction of bed-level development until 2050 and 2100 (navigability, maintenance costs) GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 2
1D-models of German waterways (free-flowing, morphologically active) Elbe: Rhine: Elbe IffezheimLobith 540 km 1014 cross sections Rhine GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 ÚstíGeesthacht 620 km + Saale 3830 cross sections page 3
1D-cross sections cross section characteristics: symmetric, y-z-coordinates sorted 3 sections (main, floodplain 1, 2) grain size distribution flood plain roughness v m, floodplain1 v m, main calculated parameters: - water level - velocities - bed load transport - bed level change - grain size changes substrate: 9 layers (can be fixed) 11 grain size fractions GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 4
Scenarios climate projections emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, B1)* -> climate -> rainfall -> run-off for drainage basins -> model input: Q-time-series until 2100 *from IPCC-report 2007 GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 5
Scenarios climate projections 1,3 1,2 1,1 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 C20_A1B_HADCM3Q0_HIRHAM_25 C20_A1B_HADCM3Q0_CLM_25 C20_A1B_EH5r3_REGCM_25 C20_A1B_EH5r3_HIRHAM5_25 C20_A1B_ARP_ALADIN_25 C20_A1B_EH5r1_CCLM_20 C20_A1B_CGCM3_CRCM_25 C20_A1B_EH5r1_REMO_10 C20_A1B_EH5r3_RCA_25 C20_B1_EH5r1_REMO_10 ratio of HM7Q change C20_A1B_HADCM3Q16_RCA3_25 C20_A1B_HADCM3Q0_RRCM_25 emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, B1)* -> climate -> rainfall -> run-off for drainage basins -> model input: Q-time-series until 2100 *from IPCC-report 2007 near future / control period far future / control period HM7Q - highest mean 7-day run-off in a time series time series: control period - 1961-1990 near future - 2021-2050 far future - 2071-2100 GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 6
Calculation scheme of SOBEK-1D - flow: fully implicit scheme (Preissmann) - sediment transport: Meyer-Peter and Müller formula - parameters Θ crit (0.032 to 0.028) and calibration factor γ s (0.7 to 1.0) defined per branch example: sediment transport at Speyer (Rh.-km 403) sediment transport (gravel+sand) [kg/s]. 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 calculated (SOBEK 1D-model) measured (bed load trap) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 discharge Q [m³/s] GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 7
Calculation scheme of SOBEK-1D - flow: fully implicit scheme (Preissmann) - sediment transport: Meyer-Peter and Müller formula - parameters Θ crit (0.032 to 0.028) and calibration factor γ s (0.7 to 1.0) defined per branch example: sediment transport at Speyer (Rh.-km 403) sediment transport (gravel+sand) [kg/s]. 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 calculated (SOBEK 1D-model) d50=9-11 mm calculated (SOBEK 1D-model) d50=11-13 mm calculated (SOBEK 1D-model) d50=13-15 mm calculated (SOBEK 1D-model) d50=15-17 mm measured (bed load trap) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 main influence on transport rate variability: substrate grain diameter discharge Q [m³/s] GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 8
2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 650 675 700 725 750 775 800 825 850 875 bed-level development calibration period observed (soundings) Rhine-km GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 9 mean bed level change 1993-2004 [m].
2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0 850 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 650 675 700 725 750 775 800 825 875 bed-level development calibration period observed (soundings) calculated (SOBEK 1D-model) calculated (still uncalibrated) Rhine-km GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 10 mean bed level change 1993-2004 [m].
2,0 bed-level development calibration period 1,5 observed (soundings) calculated (SOBEK 1D-model) calculated (still uncalibrated) mean bed level change 1993-2004 [m]. 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 Rhine-km GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 11 550
2,0 bed-level development calibration period 1,5 1,0 mean bed level change [m]. 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5 1993-2004 (calibration period) -2,0 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 Rhine-km GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 12 550
2,0 bed-level development scenario: (starting in 2007) 1,5 dredging and dumping = 0 1,0 simulation: A1B_EH5r1_REMO_10_ls mean bed level change [m]. 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5 1993-2004 (calibration period) 2007-2010 2007-2015 2007-2020 2007-2027 -2,0 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 Rhine-km GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 13 550
2,0 bed-level development comparison of scenarios 1,5 1,0 simulation: A1B_EH5r1_REMO_10_ls mean bed level change [m]. 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5 bed load supply site Iffezheim 1993-2004 (calibration period) 2007-2017, dredging&dumping = 0 2007-2017, dredging&dumping constant (mean of 1993-2006) bed load trap Mainz Weisenau -2,0 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 Rhine-km GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 14 550
Conclusion and outlook - 1D-river basin-wide models work in principle - first results have been obtained TO DO: - solve stability problems at strong bed level changes - implement simple dredging and dumping algorithm - extend simulations to full project time (2100) and space (Rhine + Elbe) GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 15
Thank you very much. Dr.-Ing. Markus Promny Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde / Federal Institute of Hydrology GESINUS 2010 - Liège - 29./30.07.2010 page 16