South Korea MERS Outbreak Global Air Net Bookings Reactions Update as of 28-Jun-2015 Valencia July 2015 Applied traveler operational intelligence to support tactical business decisions www.forwardkeys.com
Int l Air Net Bookings to South Korea by Sub-continents Most Fierce Reaction from Key Market Northeast Asia Net bookings were hardly gained from first case date (May 20th) until June 28th. Northeast Asia changed from top feeder into quickest turn-away customer. Var. of total net bookings by source sub-continents (Var. of total net bookings of Jan 1 st to May 19 th 2015 as well as May 20 th to Jun 28 th 2015 vs. same week days of prev. year) Var. total int l net bookings 2015 Jan1-May19 May20-Jun28 +28.6% -99.4% Europe 3.7% -29.6% Northeast Asia +41.9% -115.1% The Americas -1.4% -48.4% Africa & Middle East +7.4% -19.8% Rest of Asia +13.0% -82.7% Oceania -7.6% -38.8% 2 Note: Same week days of Prev. Year: Jan 2 nd to May 20 th 2014 and May 21 st to Jun 29 th 2014
Int l Air Net Bookings to South Korea since MERS Outbreak Recovery Seen in the Most Recent Week South Korea experienced the most painful 17 days from June 4th to the 20th, seeing way more cancellations than bookings. The little recovery in the week of Jun 21 to 28 indicates the MERS haunt is leaving. Daily Net booking performance for Total Int l to South Korea From May 20 th to Jun 28 th, 2015 (Based on total volume of net bookings vs. same week days in 2014) Note: Same week days in 2014: May 21 st to Jun 29 th 2014; The valley in the graph is because travel agencies usually do not work during the weekends. 3
Int l Air Net Booking Performance of Top 10 Sources before MERS Japan s Decline Started Two Weeks Later than Other Countries Japan saw the decreases in daily net bookings only started on June 2 nd, while the other 9 countries showed sharp decreases with one day or two after the first case reported on May 20 th. Var. of Total Net Bookings. Top 10 Source Countries before MERS (Var. of total net bookings of Jan 1 st to May 19 th as well as May 20 th to Jun 28 th 2015 vs. same week days of prev. year) green label: more net bookings vs. last year. red label: more cancellations than bookings. 4 Note: Same weeks in 2014: Jan 2 nd to May 20 th, 2014; May 21 st to Jun 6 th, 2014; Jun 7 th to Jun 13 th, 2014;
Forward Looking Arrivals into South Korea July to September 2015 Collapse into July while mid-aug-sep still Resilient As of 28 June 2015, July arrivals into South Korea don t look promising with a decrease of over one-third on the book compared to last year. As South Korea announced visa-fee-waiver for China and Southeast Asia countries on July 1st, summer season performance is still worth watching. Weekly Net booking performance. Total Int l to South Korea int l traveling between Jul 1 st and Sep 29 th 2015 vs. same weeks in 2014 (Var. of issued net bookings during Jan 1 st to Jun 28 th 2015 vs. same weeks in 2014) 5 Note: Same weeks in 2014 for arrivals: Jul 2 nd to Sep 30 th, 2014; Same weeks for issued bookings: Jan 2 nd to Jun 29 th, 2014. *News report on waiving visa fee: http://www.gmanetwork.com/ne ws/story/513842/pinoyabroad/w orldfeatures/south-korea-waivesvisa-fees-to-attract-tourists-amidmers
Methodology and glossary This analysis is based on Air Reservation Data propriety of ForwardKeys as of 1 st July 2015. Database contains reservations made by 180,000 travel agencies worldwide, collected daily from the main GDSs worldwide. Database updated as of 28 th June 2015. Perimeter: Markets: Total International, focus on Greater China area as China Mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan Destinations: South Korea Period: Booking History: 1 st Jan to 28 th Jun 2015; On the Book: 1 st July 2015 to 30 th Sep 2015; Lengths of Stay: Current analysis includes only those reservations that stayed at least one night in the destination, therefore excluding transits, day trips or one way trips. Arrivals refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific time frame. Arrivals on the Book (OTB Arrivals) refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific future time frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted. Net Bookings = bookings cancellations. When the variation of the Net Bookings is over -100%, meaning cancellations are more than bookings during the period stated.