South American Market Update Tony Crooks Director International, University of Melbourne South American headlines ¾ August YTD enrolments over 3 years 24-27 up 17% ¾ Commencements up 191% same period ¾ Among Australia s fastest growing regions ¾ Sectoral growth: ELICOS sector since 24/25 Flow-on to VET 26 Flow-on to HE 27 and beyond ¾ 27 enrolments will surpass from 7, in 24 2, www.idp.com/aiec 1
South American enrolments/commencements August YTD 24-27: All sectors 2 Enrolments +4% Commencements 15 +49% +35% 1 +3% +52% +42% 5 24 25 26 27 24 25 26 27 Enrolments by country 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 August YTD 25-27: All sectors +24% +81% +5% +82% '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 Chile Perú Colombia Brazil www.idp.com/aiec 2
ELICOS South American enrolments 6 August YTD 25-27: ELICOS +25% 5 4 3 +1% 2 1 +61% +97% '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 Chile Perú Colombia Brazil www.idp.com/aiec 3
Top 1 ELICOS sources Commencements August YTD 2 15 1 5 4 th + 25% 7 th + 98% China Korea India Brazil Thailand Japan Colombia Taiwan Vietnam Saudi ELICOS market Other current rankings for ELICOS enrolments: Peru 22 Chile 24 Mexico 26 In 26 South America contributed 27% of global growth in ELICOS enrolments South America No.2 source region (after North-east Asia) Average length of course (all visa types): Brazil: 13.9 weeks Chile: 12.2 weeks Colombia: 19.1 weeks Peru: 15.3 weeks www.idp.com/aiec 4
Destinations 26 data Country NSW QLD VIC WA SA Other Brazil 44% 38% 5% 12% 1% Chile 51% 25% 15% 5% 4% Colombia 33% 31% 3% 4% 2% Peru 46% 22% 24% 4% 3% 1% Provider type: Brazil strong preference for private providers; Colombia slight preference private; Chile/Peru public Opportunities Chile: only 47% ELICOS students on student visa Chile: work and holiday visa places increased November 26: 1 5 Brazil: Explore markets in regional centres Chile: FTA Improved opportunities for incountry delivery Chile and Colombia: Strong government focus on ELT opportunities in teacher development, curriculum, assessment www.idp.com/aiec 5
Schools South American enrolments August YTD 25-27: Schools 3 25-1% 2 15 1 5 +73% '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 Chile Perú Colombia Brazil www.idp.com/aiec 6
Schools market Brazil unrealised potential for growth in semester/year abroad Destinations: QLD 65%; NSW 2%; VIC 9% Brazilians: no single-sex schools, no uniforms Distance not an issue for Brazilian parents (unlike the rest of South America) Chile, Peru: AL1 Brazil, Colombia: AL2 Opportunities in Chile for sister school relations VET www.idp.com/aiec 7
4 South American enrolments August YTD 25-27: VET +31% 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 +147% +163% +124% '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 Chile Perú Colombia Brazil 15 Top 1 VET sources Commencements August YTD 1 5 6 th + 18% India China Korea Nepal Thailand Brazil Japan Hong Kong Bangladesh Indonesia www.idp.com/aiec 8
Destinations 26 data Country NSW QLD VIC WA SA Other Brazil 73% 15% 4% 8% <1% Chile 58% 16% 24% 2% Colombia 5% 16% 31% 3% Peru 6% 12% 17% 5% 6% Provider type: Brazil strong preference for private providers; Colombia slight preference private; Chile/Peru public Fields of interest Brazil Business 57%; Hospitality 18%; Phys.Sci. 11% Colombia Business 44%; Hospitality 22%; IT 14% Peru/Chile Industry interest in Australian capability in Mining, Agriculture, Hospitality www.idp.com/aiec 9
Opportunities Interest across region in Australian VET system VET symposia Chile and Brazil November 25 Australian involvement in design of Chilean national qualifications framework Possible VET teacher exchange with Brazil Ministerial visits: VET major focus World Bank-funded opportunities for STAs Colombia: ICETEX increasing proportion of loans for VET-level studies Higher Education www.idp.com/aiec 1
South American enrolments August YTD 25-27: Higher Education 8 6 +13% +1% 4 2 +15% +42% '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 '5 '6 '7 Chile Perú Colombia Brazil Destinations 26 data Country NSW QLD VIC WA SA Other Brazil Chile Colombia Peru 46% 49% 42% 31% 29% 19% 21% 37% 12% 21% 28% 2% 8% 5% 5% 6% 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% www.idp.com/aiec 11
Fields of interest Brazil Business 44%; Hums. 9%; Engineering 6% Chile Business 43%; Engineering 11% Hums. 7% Colombia Business 46%; Engineering 9% Hums. 8% Peru Business 48%; Engineering 9% Hums. 6% HE by level of study Country U/g Grad Cert/Dip Masters Doctorate Brazil 37% 11% 35% 17% Chile 2% 4% 62% 14% Colombia 36% 9% 49% 6% Peru 4% 5% 52% 3% www.idp.com/aiec 12
Higher Education market Across South America YTD commencements up by 24%; Colombia commencements up 45% Brazil: holistic engagement required Chile: niche postgraduate programs Peru: momentum to continue Colombia: sector pathway analysis indicates 23% of ELICOS students continue to HE 2-year time-lag between trends in ELICOS and trends in HE Colombian enrolment trends 1998-26 2 ELICOS 2 VET 15 15 1 1 5 5 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 2 15 Higher Education Indicates peak year for enrolments by sector 1 5 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 www.idp.com/aiec 13
Opportunities Limitations of regional p/g programs accounting for only 2.4% of tertiary enrolment Need to upgrade qualifications of academic staff Funding sources for student loans/scholarships: Brazil: CAPES Chile: Scholarships Commission, TESOL scholarships Colombia: ICETEX, COLFUTURO Peru: INABEC Tailored bank products Opportunities Funding sources for collaborative projects: Brazil: CAPES, CNPq Chile: MECESUP Colombia: ICETEX (visiting academics program) Australian student mobility: Chile now 3 rd most popular UMAP destination Many public universities tuition-free Increasing visits in both directions www.idp.com/aiec 14
Thank you Tony Crooks Director International University of Melbourne tcrooks@unimelb.edu.au www.idp.com/aiec 15