Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes.

Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger ENAC January 16, 2013 N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 1 / 27

SUMMARY 1) Introduction 2) Data description 3) Variables description 4) Model 5) Curves analysis 6) Conclusion N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 2 / 27

Introduction N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 3 / 27

Introduction Low cost carriers = Lower fares/lower comfort. Called No frills, discount budget N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 4 / 27

Introduction First topic Initially : Impact of low costs But: No reliable data N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 5 / 27

Introduction New topic Factors impacting Marseille-London routes. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 6 / 27

Introduction New topic Factors impacting Marseille-London routes. -Marseille/Heathrow -Marseille/Gatwick -Marseille/Stansted -Marseille/City N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 6 / 27

Data description N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 7 / 27

Data description Airlines operating these routes N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 8 / 27

Full service carriers British Airways Air France Low Cost carriers easyjet Ryanair N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 9 / 27

Data description TotalPax MRS-LDN N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 10 / 27

Variables description N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 11 / 27

Study Possible variables What can explain these curves? -Low Cost carriers -Oil price -Economical crisis -Indirect routes -New means of transport -Political issues -Terrorism N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 12 / 27

Modelling... N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 13 / 27

Model Complete model TotalPax i = β 0 i + β 1 lowcosts i + β 2 oilprice i + β 3 othertransports i + β 4 economicalconditions i + β 5 politicalissues i + β 6 terrorism i + u i i= 1985,1986...2011 N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 14 / 27

Study Oil price impact N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 15 / 27

Study Oil price impact It seems that oil price does not have an impact on the amount of passengers using this route. Conclusion : -Other explanatory variables N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 16 / 27

Curves study N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 17 / 27

Study TotalPax MRS-LDN Neglecting London City airport: too low traffic. (business flights) N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 18 / 27

Study Stansted variations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 19 / 27

Study Stansted variations 1999: Ryanair starts operating this route N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 19 / 27

Study Stansted variations 1999: Ryanair starts operating this route 2004: political issues, Ryanair stops for 1 year. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 19 / 27

Study Stansted variations 1999: Ryanair starts operating this route 2004: political issues, Ryanair stops for 1 year. 2005-now: normal operations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 19 / 27

Study Heathrow variations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 20 / 27

Study Heathrow variations 1985-1992: Increase following air traffic evolution N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 20 / 27

Study Gatwick variations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 21 / 27

Study Gatwick variations 1992: Gatwick opened a new terminal (+15M pax) N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 21 / 27

Study Gatwick variations 1992: Gatwick opened a new terminal (+15M pax) 1995: easyjet starts operations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 21 / 27

Study Gatwick variations 1992: Gatwick opened a new terminal (+15M pax) 1995: easyjet starts operations 1999: Ryanair starting MRS-Stansted N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 21 / 27

Study Gatwick variations 1992: Gatwick opened a new terminal (+15M pax) 1995: easyjet starts operations 1999: Ryanair starting MRS-Stansted 2004: Ryanair stops MRS-Stansted N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 21 / 27

Study Gatwick variations Did Ryanair have an impact on easyjet s passenger flow? N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 22 / 27

Study Gatwick variations Ryanair had an impact on easyjet passenger flow. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 23 / 27

Study other transports Other transports: -Connection flights: from 230 euros to 2500 euros while direct flight with easyjet 91 euros N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 24 / 27

Study other transports Other transports: -Connection flights: from 230 euros to 2500 euros while direct flight with easyjet 91 euros -Eurotunnel/Eurostar: 7 hours, approximately 280 euros N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 24 / 27

Study other transports Other transports: -Connection flights: from 230 euros to 2500 euros while direct flight with easyjet 91 euros -Eurotunnel/Eurostar: 7 hours, approximately 280 euros -Car: 12 hours, 270 euros N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 24 / 27

Study other transports Other transports: -Connection flights: from 230 euros to 2500 euros while direct flight with easyjet 91 euros -Eurotunnel/Eurostar: 7 hours, approximately 280 euros -Car: 12 hours, 270 euros -Walking: 250 hours, cost: 2 legs. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 24 / 27

Conclusion N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 25 / 27

Conclusion What has impacted the passengers flow between Marseille and London? Based on our data: -Fight between low cost carriers N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 26 / 27

Conclusion What has impacted the passengers flow between Marseille and London? Based on our data: -Fight between low cost carriers -Full service carriers do not fight (Heathrow transfer of passengers) N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 26 / 27

Conclusion What has impacted the passengers flow between Marseille and London? Based on our data: -Fight between low cost carriers -Full service carriers do not fight (Heathrow transfer of passengers) -Oil prices did not impact annual flights N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 26 / 27

Conclusion What has impacted the passengers flow between Marseille and London? Based on our data: -Fight between low cost carriers -Full service carriers do not fight (Heathrow transfer of passengers) -Oil prices did not impact annual flights -Other transportations are less efficient N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 26 / 27

Thank you for your attention. Any questions? N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, 2013 27 / 27