RAIL HUB FOR HEATHROW?

Heathrow Hub F_P.indd 1 08/12/2014 11:08

On borrowed time: Heathrow Connect Class 360 No 360203 approaches the Southall stop on 10 May 2012, forming the 13.57 service from Terminals 1, 2 & 3 to Paddington. This service is due to transfer to Crossrail in 2018. Brian Morrison RAIL HUB FOR HEATHROW? As the Airports Commission considers options for additional runway capacity at Gatwick or Heathrow, CHRIS STOKES assesses existing rail links to the two airports and explains how rail can be a key contributor to surface access T he Airports Commission launched its consultation on the three remaining options for additional runway capacity for London and the South East on 11 November. The main consultation document focuses principally on the airports themselves, with key issues including noise, cost and the future development of the airline industry. The Commission has recognised that surface access is a vital part of this debate. Encouragingly, its analysis has focused on the desirability of raising the public transport share, and particularly that of rail. Indeed, surface access was a key consideration in its recent decision not to take forward an estuary airport option ( Boris Island ). The enormous cost of the access infrastructure was a major downside, in addition to the massive cost of the airport itself. Initially, supporters of www.modern-railways.com 063-066_MR_Jan 2015_stokes.indd 63 the estuary scheme glibly talked about using the spare capacity of HS1 as the main, high volume link, but it is clear that there is limited spare capacity between Ebbsfleet and St Pancras at peak periods and that other dedicated, high capacity links would also be required. THREE OPTIONS So the choice has come down to Heathrow vs. Gatwick, and the arguments look finely balanced. Gatwick is a lower cost option that would bring potentially less political opposition, and the air industry s increasing move towards point to point flights operated by low cost carriers would strengthen the case for a second runway at Gatwick. However, the Commission also sees the business and economic benefits of developing the hub at Heathrow as significantly higher than those for Gatwick, albeit at a higher cost. In the middle in terms of cost is an innovative proposal put forward by Heathrow Hub Ltd (www.heathrowhub.com) to extend the existing Northern runway to the west, enabling it to operate as two runways with a safety zone in between. This would maintain existing flight paths and therefore avoid bringing new people into the airport s noise footprint. It has been developed by an independent group including Mark Bostock (who as a Director at Arup persuaded the Government of the day to adopt the current route for HS1) and Jock Lowe, formerly Director of Flight Operations for British Airways and Concorde s longest serving pilot. This proposal has gone through all the safety hoops with the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), and is clearly a serious contender a stunning achievement for a small David fighting two established Goliaths. January 2015 Modern Railways 63 09/12/2014 19:06

So, how do the three options compare in terms of rail access? GATWICK Gatwick has very well established rail services, with excellent links to central London including a frequent Thameslink service through the capital and on to St Albans, Luton and Bedford. It also enjoys reasonable links to the south coast, although services to the Coastway routes west and east of Brighton are limited at peak periods as many trains don t stop at Gatwick due to train capacity issues and/or pathing problems. There is also an hourly service to Guildford and Reading, although this is not very competitive with road because of its low frequency and slow journey times. Improvements are on the way. New trains are on order for the Gatwick Express, with two trains an hour to be extended to Brighton. A new fleet is also on its way as part of the Thameslink project, which will add through services to Stevenage, Cambridge and Peterborough. Govia s plans for the new franchise reverse one of the more bizarre examples of Department for Transport decision making the replacement of the previous new trains with the unsuitable Class 442s. But, with the exception of the new Thameslink services, there are no plans to extend the geographic reach of Gatwick s rail network, and it remains the case that for most of the country it will always take longer to access Gatwick than Heathrow. CAPACITY CONCERNS There is also the issue of Brighton Line capacity. The route is already heavily utilised throughout the day, with few spare off peak paths and little or no spare capacity in the peak, although completion of the Thameslink project will increase passenger capacity. Network Rail is developing proposals for the route, including additional capacity through East Croydon, but these are not yet committed schemes. The biggest constraint is capacity through Clapham Junction, which is a highly restricted location where, apart from the Gatwick Express, most Victoria services stop. Clapham Junction is also one of the busiest stations in the country, both for originating passengers and interchange. The latest figures published by the Office of Rail Regulation show that total annual usage in 2012/13 was around 47 million, broadly equally divided between originating traffic and interchange higher than London Euston, Leeds or Birmingham New Street. There are even more restrictive capacity constraints for the South Western main line, resulting in no stops in the peak direction on the fast lines. The Commission recognises the capacity issue, commenting that high levels of crowding would be felt in peak hours on some services...although this would largely be driven by background demand growth. Jacobs, the consultancy tasked by the Commission to evaluate surface access, forecasts that Gatwick s rail mode share will increase from 36% at present to 43% in 2030, but states the provision of adequate capacity to accommodate demand in 2030 is dependent on the delivery of a number of currently uncommitted and unfunded rail schemes. HEATHROW The Heathrow surface access situation is more complex, but potentially more positive. The airport already has good access to central London, both via the fast but expensive Heathrow Express and the frequent, cheaper but slower Piccadilly Line, which offers good connectivity across London. Crossrail will give an additional four trains per hour, potentially increasing to six, and will provide a direct, faster link to the West End, the City and Canary Wharf. Crossrail will also significantly improve connections to the suburbs and beyond, both through a much wider range of London Underground interchanges than is currently available at Paddington and through direct connections with the National Rail network at Farringdon, Liverpool Street and Stratford. In many cases, journey times will be significantly reduced, with Heathrow accessible by a single interchange from places as widely spread as East Croydon and Chelmsford. In the longer term, Old Oak Common could provide national connections via HS2. In the short term, the effectiveness of Crossrail may be constrained by the politics of Heathrow Express. Heathrow Airport Ltd owns Heathrow s rail infrastructure, and current plans are that Crossrail will only go to Terminal 4, although this terminal may close as part of the future development of the airport. Interestingly, Heathrow Connect is currently shown to operate only to Terminals 1, 2 and 3, although the trains actually go forward empty to Terminal 5, with Terminal 4 only served by a shuttle to and from Terminals 1, 2 and 3. There must be a suspicion that this operating pattern is more about protecting Heathrow Express s premium income than providing the best service to passengers. Even with these artificial constraints, the viability of Heathrow Express as a premium service must be in doubt once Crossrail opens. This issue apart, it does appear that rail capacity to and from central London will be sufficient to support major expansion at Heathrow, and Jacobs forecasts an overall rail mode share of 43% in 2030, coincidentally the same as for Gatwick. 64 Modern Railways January 2015 www.modern-railways.com 063-066_MR_Jan 2015_stokes.indd 64 09/12/2014 19:06

Express to Brighton: Class 442 at the South Coast resort on 12 September 2013. Paul Bigland Access: a map showing which airport can be reached more quickly from across the country, based on future calculations and taking into account time savings from HS2. Courtesy Heathrow Hub Ltd WEAKER FROM THE WEST Heathrow s weakness in terms of rail access is from the west and the south. The proposed Airtrack service, connecting to the Windsor Lines routes at Staines, was abandoned at a late stage of development, in part because of major concerns about the impact of additional trains on level crossing occupation in the Egham area. It was then dropped in favour of the Western Rail Access to Heathrow (WRAtH) link to Reading, a new part-tunnelled railway heading west from Terminal 5 and joining the Great Western relief lines at a grade-separated junction near Langley. This was given DfT s blessing in the 2012 High Level Output Statement, but uniquely subject to specific conditions: The Government wishes to see a new railway link to give western rail access to Heathrow Airport... subject to a satisfactory business case and the agreement of acceptable terms with the Heathrow aviation industry. There has been no funding commitment from the aviation industry to date, although Network Rail has continued to develop the project. In reality, the business case is likely to be weak; the service is only useful for people going to Heathrow, and longer distance passengers will still need to change at Reading. Despite its reconstruction, this will not be an attractive proposition Reading s east-west alignment means the station is a wind tunnel, and there are stern posters warning passengers not to use the escalators with luggage, even though lift capacity is quite limited (why is it alright to take luggage on London Underground s escalators, but not at Reading?). Many air passengers from the west will continue to drive or will use National Express coaches, which have a higher market share than rail and charge higher fares than to London, reflecting the convenience and reliability of a direct service to the airport. A top down analysis of the operating costs and the likely revenue, derived from the CAA s origin and destination data for Heathrow passengers, suggests that, far from producing a return on capital, WRAtH is likely to lose money annually, while taking up valuable line capacity with poorly loaded trains. INTER-MODAL HUB I believe there is a better alternative. The proposal put forward for the extended Northern runway also included a new major inter-modal access point for the airport ( Heathrow Hub ), with a major new station on the Great Western main line between Iver and West Drayton. This facility would have check-in and baggage drop, putting the airport on the main rail network. It would be directly linked to the terminals by a high capacity, fast and frequent airside Automated People Mover (APM), similar to systems that are already used across the world. In addition to giving direct rail access from all major stations on the Great Western network, Heathrow Hub would also provide a highly attractive road gateway to the airport for drivers accessing Heathrow from the M40, the M1 and the northern section of the M25, saving time and directly relieving the M25 between junctions 13 and 15, reputedly the most congested section of motorway in Europe. The Commission has downplayed the potential benefits of Heathrow Hub, as its main aim has TABLE 1: RAIL/COACH JOURNEY TIMES TO HEATHROW Point of Origin www.modern-railways.com Current rail time via Reading coach link Current rail time via Paddington (Terminal 5) Coach time (CTA) Rail time with WRAtH (Terminal 5) Rail Time to Heathrow Hub Reading N/A 71 40-55 28 16 Oxford 83-108 101 90 71 41 Swindon 87-112 98 90-100 75 46 Bristol 129-154 139 120-140 117 87 Cardiff 154-179 169 185-210 142 110 Plymouth 234-259 256 255-270 222 190 Note: while WRAtH times are a significant improvement on present rail timings, this option still requires a change of train for all passengers travelling from destinations west of Reading. Times in the table allow for interchange. January 2015 Modern Railways 65 063-066_MR_Jan 2015_stokes.indd 65 09/12/2014 19:06

Extra call? A First Great Western HST races towards London Paddington at Twyford on 9 July 2014 with a service from Penzance. Fraser Pithie been to resolve the question of future runway capacity. It has recognised, quite logically, that the Heathrow Hub concept can work with either of the two runway options, but may not be a critical requirement for either. This is understandable, but disappointing. Heathrow Hub would provide a step change in rail access to the airport. MODAL SHIFT The main disadvantage of Heathrow Hub is that it would be an extra stop for Great Western inter-city services, made worse by the planned stop at Old Oak Common. But stopping long distance trains at Old Oak Common offers little benefit; it will not be a useful connection to HS2, as the CrossCountry routes from Reading and Bristol and beyond provide regular direct services to the Midlands and the North which will continue to be cheaper, more convenient and, in most cases, faster than changing to HS2 at Old Oak Common. In contrast, although a Heathrow Hub stop will increase journey times for London passengers by four or five minutes, it will save Heathrow passengers 40 to 60 minutes and lead to a high modal shift, significantly greater than WRAtH would. And, unlike WRAtH, it will make money for the rail industry and provide significant journey time savings for airline passengers (see Table 1). NO HS2 SPUR The proposed HS2 spur to Heathrow appears to be dead. Sir David Higgins recent report Rebalancing Britain has only one mention of the scheme: This report also does not prejudge the outcome of the Davies Commission into airport capacity, and hence, there is no further discussion of the previously proposed spur to Heathrow Airport. However, the Airports Commission has effectively assumed that the spur will not happen. This is not surprising, as HS2 s own reports previously projected minimal use of the spur. As with WRAtH, the volume of passengers would be too low to make money on airport only services, except those to and from London. Jacobs concludes: Based on the evidence seen to date it is difficult to envisage the provision of a spur from HS2 to Heathrow will either have a material impact on passenger numbers at Heathrow or be a good use of scarce capacity on HS2 itself when there are so many competing uses for these paths. PROPOSED TRACK LAYOUT FOR A NEW HEATHROW HUB AIRTRACK REVIVED? Encouragingly, the Commission s work has spawned a further review of rail access to Heathrow from the south, led by Network Rail. A link to the Windsor Lines north of Staines potentially revives the idea of a Heathrow to Waterloo service. Unlike Airtrack, this would be integrated with commuter services and would provide direct links to, for example, Richmond and Clapham Junction, with interchange at Clapham providing excellent connectivity to South London, Croydon and Sussex. The service would almost certainly be profitable as the trains would carry both commuters and air passengers, with major destinations at both ends of the route. The review will also consider an additional, more radical proposal to provide a more direct, faster link from Woking to Heathrow compared to the previous Airtrack scheme. This would involve the construction of new infrastructure parallel to the M25 from Chertsey to Heathrow, giving a 16-minute journey time between Woking and Terminal 5. Services from, for example, Guildford and Basingstoke could operate through to Paddington, integrated with the Heathrow Express. Unlike WRAtH or the HS2 spur, this concept would serve several different markets and have major potential strategic benefits: n direct access from Woking and beyond to Old Oak Common, providing excellent connectivity with HS2 and supporting the major planned development at Old Oak Common; n an alternative route to the Paddington area and the West End (and potentially also to the City and Canary Wharf), providing some relief to the increasingly overcrowded outer suburban and long distance services into Waterloo and to the Underground lines at Waterloo (Crossrail 2 will help with this, but primarily for the inner suburban routes, and the Woking Heathrow link could be built much more quickly); and n fast access from major towns in Surrey and Hampshire to Heathrow, delivering a significant modal shift from road to rail. CHOICES There is still all to play for. It is to be hoped that DfT, working with the Airports Commission, will demonstrate joined-up thinking and start to deliver integrated rail/air connections with profitable train services which serve multiple markets, in the way that already happens at airports such as Schiphol, Charles de Gaulle, Frankfurt and Zurich. a Chris Stokes is a Partner at First Class partnerships. FCP has been advising Heathrow Hub Ltd on strategic rail issues Up relief Reversible relief Down relief Up main Down main Up relief Up relief 2 Down relief Up main Down main Iver Station Heathrow Hub Station Proposed track layout for a new hub station on the Great Western main line. Courtesy Heathrow Hub Ltd 66 Modern Railways January 2015 www.modern-railways.com 063-066_MR_Jan 2015_stokes.indd 66 09/12/2014 19:06