Project Overview Objective: To estimate the economic impacts of designating Gold Butte as a National Conservation Area Approach: Applied Analysis (AA) employed a two-step analytical approach to quantify the economic impacts of such a designation Step 1: Estimating the Stabilized Visitor Count to Gold Butte Step 2: Quantifying the Economic Impact of Visitors to Gold Butte Using data obtained from the Foundation, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and other national providers, AA estimated the stabilized number of people who would be expected to visit Gold Butte if the area was designated as a National Conservation Area (NCA). Building on the visitor count analyses, AA utilized standardized impact models to assess the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts potentially sourced to additional (incremental) visitation to Gold Butte assuming an NCA designation.
Visitor Estimation: Visitor estimates were created using regression-based model. While a number of variables were analyzed those determined to be significant were: Acreage Number of hiking trails Campground fees Years since designation Driving distance to nearest metro area Limited information regarding current visitor volumes to Gold Butte exists; for modeling purposes, 80 percent of visitation is estimated to be in addition to current volumes
Using a regression-based model and assuming designation as a National Conservation Area, Gold Butte is anticipated to have: 44,464 Total Annual Visitor Trips 35,571 Incremental Annual Visitor Trips These estimates fall into a reasonable range when competed against other similarly situated areas as reported by the BLM
Comparative Analysis Total Location Acreage Grand Staircase NM Grand Canyon-Parashant NM Black Rock-High Rock NCA Sonoran Desert NM Steens Mountain Gold Butte Vermilion Cliffs NM Santa Rosa & San Jacinto NM Rio Grande del Norte NM El Malpais NCA Dominguez-Escalante NCA Red Rock Canyon NCA Ironwood Forest NM Canyons of the Ancients NM McInnis Canyons NCA Cascade-Siskiyou NM Aqua Fria NM King Range NCA Beaver Dam Wash NCA San Pedro Riparian NCA Sloan Canyon NCA Red Cliffs NCA Las Cienegas NCA Fort Stanton-Snowy River Cave Gila Box Riparian NCA Gunnison Gorge NCA Fort Ord NM Kasha-Katuwe Tent Rocks NM Prehistoric Trackways NM Carrizo Plain NM 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
Comparative Analysis Driving Distance to Metro Area King Range NCA Steens Mountain Fort Stanton-Snowy River Cave Grand Staircase NM Rio Grande del Norte NM Gila Box Riparian NCA Black Rock-High Rock NCA Vermilion Cliffs NM El Malpais NCA Canyons of the Ancients NM San Pedro Riparian NCA Gold Butte Grand Canyon-Parashant NM Gunnison Gorge NCA Sonoran Desert NM Carrizo Plain NM Aqua Fria NM Kasha-Katuwe Tent Rocks NM Ironwood Forest NM Santa Rosa & San Jacinto NM Las Cienegas NCA Beaver Dam Wash NCA Cascade-Siskiyou NM Prehistoric Trackways NM McInnis Canyons NCA Dominguez-Escalante NCA Sloan Canyon NCA Red Rock Canyon NCA Fort Ord NM Red Cliffs NCA 0 50 100 150 200 250
Comparative Analysis Fees Charged for Access/Campground Use Las Cienegas NCA Cascade-Siskiyou NM Sloan Canyon NCA Sonoran Desert NM Red Rock Canyon NCA Kasha-Katuwe Tent Rocks NM Fort Stanton-Snowy River Cave Fort Ord NM Grand Canyon-Parashant NM Vermilion Cliffs NM Steens Mountain Santa Rosa & San Jacinto NM San Pedro Riparian NCA Rio Grande del Norte NM Red Cliffs NCA Prehistoric Trackways NM McInnis Canyons NCA King Range NCA Ironwood Forest NM Gunnison Gorge NCA Grand Staircase NM Gold Butte (Est.) Gila Box Riparian NCA El Malpais NCA Dominguez-Escalante NCA Carrizo Plain NM Canyons of the Ancients NM Black Rock-High Rock NCA Beaver Dam Wash NCA Aqua Fria NM $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18
Comparative Analysis Number of Hiking Trails Red Cliffs NCA Santa Rosa & San Jacinto NM Red Rock Canyon NCA Rio Grande del Norte NM Fort Ord NM Grand Staircase NM Fort Stanton-Snowy River Cave King Range NCA Dominguez-Escalante NCA Gold Butte (Est.) Steens Mountain McInnis Canyons NCA San Pedro Riparian NCA Canyons of the Ancients NM Gunnison Gorge NCA Carrizo Plain NM Vermilion Cliffs NM El Malpais NCA Grand Canyon-Parashant NM Sonoran Desert NM Sloan Canyon NCA Gila Box Riparian NCA Beaver Dam Wash NCA Cascade-Siskiyou NM Kasha-Katuwe Tent Rocks NM Black Rock-High Rock NCA Aqua Fria NM Las Cienegas NCA Prehistoric Trackways NM Ironwood Forest NM 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Comparative Analysis Years Since Designation King Range NCA El Malpais NCA San Pedro Riparian NCA Red Rock Canyon NCA Gila Box Riparian NCA Grand Staircase NM Gunnison Gorge NCA Steens Mountain Black Rock-High Rock NCA McInnis Canyons NCA Las Cienegas NCA Cascade-Siskiyou NM Canyons of the Ancients NM Santa Rosa & San Jacinto NM Vermilion Cliffs NM Ironwood Forest NM Grand Canyon-Parashant NM Aqua Fria NM Kasha-Katuwe Tent Rocks NM Carrizo Plain NM Sonoran Desert NM Sloan Canyon NCA Red Cliffs NCA Beaver Dam Wash NCA Fort Stanton-Snowy River Cave Dominguez-Escalante NCA Prehistoric Trackways NM Fort Ord NM Rio Grande del Norte NM Gold Butte 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Comparative Analysis Total Annual Visitors Red Rock Canyon NCA Grand Staircase NM Rio Grande del Norte NM McInnis Canyons NCA Santa Rosa & San Jacinto NM Cascade-Siskiyou NM Steens Mountain Fort Ord NM Gunnison Gorge NCA El Malpais NCA King Range NCA Black Rock-High Rock NCA Red Cliffs NCA San Pedro Riparian NCA Kasha-Katuwe Tent Rocks NM Vermilion Cliffs NM Aqua Fria NM Dominguez-Escalante NCA Carrizo Plain NM Grand Canyon-Parashant NM Canyons of the Ancients NM Gold Butte (Est.) Gila Box Riparian NCA Sloan Canyon NCA Fort Stanton-Snowy River Cave Ironwood Forest NM Las Cienegas NCA Sonoran Desert NM Beaver Dam Wash NCA Prehistoric Trackways NM 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000
Places Visited by Mesquite Visitors (Among Those Who Visited Other Places) Las Vegas Zion National Park/Bryce Canyon Laughlin St. George Other Valley of Fire Grand Canyon Hoover Dam Lake Mead Death Valley 24% 20% 17% 16% 13% 12% 9% 7% 5% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, Mesquite Visitor Survey (2012)
TRANSITION TO VISITOR ESTIMATION
Nearby Conservation Areas Visitors Estimates BLM NCAs and NMs near Gold Butte experienced varying visitation numbers in 2012: Red Rock NCA: 994,861 Red Cliffs NCA: 136,465 Grand Canyon-Parashant NM: 68,227 Sloan Canyon NCA: 32,678 Beaver Dam NCA: 11,569
Nearby Conservation Areas Acreage Gold Butte (350,000 acres) is significantly larger than most nearby NCAs and NMs: Red Rock NCA: 195,815 Red Cliffs NCA: 45,000 Grand Canyon-Parashant NM: 1,048,325 Sloan Canyon NCA: 48,438 Beaver Dam NCA: 63,500
Analysis considers a range of impacts based on different visitor types, balancing available data on traditional rural parks visitors as well as the reality that southern Nevada has significant tourist-oriented infrastructure and amenities that warrant consideration. Average BLM Visitor Sixty-four (64) percent of visitors to BLM sites are day visitors, that is they do not require hotel nor campground accommodations, and thus, they have a relatively modest economic impact Only 10 percent of the remaining BLM visitors expect to stay in a motel or hotel during their visit to the BLM site Average Mesquite Visitor The average Mesquite visitor makes 9.5 trips per year Only 17 percent of Mesquite visitors indicate that the primary purpose of their trip is to gamble Fifty-seven (57) percent of Mesquite visitors stay at least one night The average Mesquite visitor reports spending $2.96 per trip on recreation Thirty-four (34) percent of Mesquite visitors report visiting other places during their trip, down significantly from 47 percent in 2008
Average Visitor Spending by Type $179.02 $26.22 Average BLM Visitor Average Mesquite Visitor Other $14.62 $11.57 Gaming $0.00 $102.63 Rest. & Bars $6.59 $17.28 Hotel $5.01 $47.54 Total $26.22 $179.02
Impact Summary Blended Impact Assessment Model (Total) Percent of BLM Visitors Staying in Mesquite 1% (445 Visitors) 5% (2,223 Visitors) 10% (4,446 Visitors) Direct Indirect Induced Total Economic Output $997,092 $250,973 $371,638 $1,619,703 Wages & Salaries $441,376 $91,902 $125,815 $659,094 Employment 13 2 3 18 Economic Output $1,272,297 $335,014 $482,557 $2,089,869 Wages & Salaries $566,784 $126,020 $163,365 $856,169 Employment 19 4 5 28 Economic Output $1,616,304 $440,065 $621,207 $2,677,576 Wages & Salaries $723,543 $168,668 $210,303 $1,102,514 Employment 19 4 5 28
Other Impacts Considered Assuming an NCA designation, additional facilities and infrastructure may be required; none of those one-time construction impacts are considered in this analysis In addition to the above impacts, other potentially significant but unmeasured economic impacts of a Gold Butte NCA designation include: Increased visitation to other nearby areas as a result of the complimentary effects of a designated Gold Butte area Spillover effects of additional operational BLM employment and workforce required for a National Conservation Area Quality of life, property values, and other non-use considerations as a result of the preservation of Gold Butte s natural resources Quality of Life was cited as a key reason to move to Mesquite