Effects of Airline Industry Changes on Small- and Non-Hub Airports This presentation from the AAAE 2015 National Air Service Conference presents findings from ACRP Project 03-29.
Effects of Airline Industry Changes on Small- and Non-Hub Airports AAAE National Air Service Conference March 9, 2015 Dr. William Spitz Bowling Green State University Dr. Russell W. Mills Headquarters: 115 West Avenue Suite 201 Jenkintown PA 19046 USA 215-884-7500 215-884-1385 www.gra-inc.com bills@gra-inc.com 225 Troupe Ave Bowling Green, OH 43403 USA 419-372-7329 millsrw@bgsu.edu
Outline ACRP Projects Related to Air Service Industry Trends Related to Studies Introduction to ACRP 03-29 Project and Research Team Changes in Air Service at Small and Non-Hub Airports (2001-2013) Case Studies and Focus Groups Preliminary Lessons Learned and Strategies Products and Outcomes 1 March 9, 2015
Airport Cooperative Research Projects (ACRP) ACRP 03-29 Effects of Airline Industry Changes on Small and Non-Hub Airports ACRP Synthesis 56 Understanding the Value of Social Media at Airports for Customer Engagement Deals with using Social Media to make customers more aware of the Airport in their community ACRP 03-31 Aligning Community Expectations with Airport Roles Available at the TRB website (TRB.org) 2 March 9, 2015
Industry Profitability Operating profit Net Net profit Operating Margin Net margin Revenue Expenses ASMs Fuel Labor Avg. fuel Airline Revenues Expenses ex si profit ex si ex si ex si y/y y/y Difference y/y y/y y/y price/gl. American $42,650 $37,577 $5,073 $2,882 $4,184 12% 10% 6% 1% 4 pts 2% (5%) 8% $2.91 Delta $40,362 $35,075 $5,287 $659 $2,800 13% 7% 7% 3% 4 pts 3% (5%) 5% $2.87 United $38,901 $36,085 $2,816 $1,130 $1,970 7% 5% 2% (1%) 3 pts 0% (4%) 4% $2.99 Southwest $18,605 $16,217 $2,388 $1,136 $1,397 13% 8% 5% 0% 5 pts 1% (7%) 8% $2.92 JetBlue $5,817 $5,302 $515 $401 $232 9% 4% 7% 6% 1 pt 5% 1% 14% $2.99 Alaska $5,368 $4,436 $932 $605 $571 17% 11% 4% 3% 1 pt 7% (2%) 5% $3.08 Hawaiian $2,315 $2,090 $225 $69 $97 10% 4% 7% 3% 5 pts 2% (2%) 5% $3.03 Spirit $1,932 $1,560 $372 $226 $237 19% 12% 17% 14% 3 pts 18% 9% 20% $2.99 Virgin America $1,490 $1,252 $121 $60 $84 8% 6% 5% 2% 3 pts 0% (2%) 21% $3.07 Allegiant $1,137 $936 $201 $86 $113 18% 10% 14% 11% 3 pts 10% 1% 22% $3.01 US Industry $158,577 $140,531 $18,046 $7,254 $11,686 11% 7% 5% 1% 4 pts 2% (4%) 6% $2.93 American posted largest profit among U.S carriers Southwest topped $1B for first time in history Spirit, Alaska, and Allegiant had highest operating margins 3 March 9, 2015
Capacity Trends Small hub and non-hub airports hurt by reduction in regional hubs with fewer options and fleet transition 4 March 9, 2015
Introduction to ACRP 03-29 Research Objectives Identify and quantify impacts on small- and non-hub airports and the communities they serve, of changes in commercial airline service resulting from airline consolidation, fleet realignment and other factors Develop strategies for maintaining or achieving desired commercial service at these airports in response to changing market conditions and airline business plans 5 March 9, 2015
Project Team Leaders Rich Golaszewski, Project Manager William Spitz, Ph.D., Principal Investigator Primary responsibility for analysis and dissemination of air service changes across all small and non-hub airports; overall project management Bowling Green State University Center for Regional Development Russell Mills, Ph.D., Lead Investigator Primary responsibility for conducting case studies and focus groups of selected airports; analysis of air service development strategies Strategic Partners and Associates (SPA) Sonjia Murray, Lead Investigator Primary responsibility for conducting on-line surveys of airport managers and airline route planners 6 March 9, 2015
Airline Industry Changes Major trends in commercial air service since 2001 Airline consolidation Increasing reliance on connecting hubs by mainline carriers Volatile and increasing fuel prices Recovery from 9-11 Fleet changes away from small regional jets (50 seats or less) Planned domestic fleet of Small RJs 2000-2032 7 March 9, 2015
Change in Small- and Non-Hub Flights, 2001-2013 (Lower 48 States) 8 March 9, 2015
Change in Small- and Non-Hub Seats, 2001-2013 (Lower 48 States) 9 March 9, 2015
Mainline/Regional Seat Shares at Small- and Non-Hubs, 2001-2013 (Lower 48 States) 10 March 9, 2015
Flight Shares at Small- and Non-Hubs by Aircraft Type, 2001-2013 (Lower 48 States) Small Hubs Non-Hubs 11 March 9, 2015
Going Beyond Flight and Seat Counts: Access to the Air Transportation Network For small and non-hubs, access to desired destinations depends on how flights mesh with schedule banks of major network carriers Go beyond simple analysis of nonstop flights and seats Derive connectivity measure for individual airports based on actual connection opportunities to 50 largest US airports as well as 17 major foreign destinations Analysis based on proprietary QSI model (Quality of Service Index): QSI points assigned to nonstop, one-stop and two-stop services, varying by equipment type Total QSI points across all 67 potential destinations summed to yield a single QSI score for each airport Scaling: One daily nonstop on a narrowbody jet to a single destination is worth 10 QSI points 12 March 9, 2015
Change in Nonstop Seats vs. QSI at Small- and Non-Hub Airports, 2006-2013 100% Small- and Non-Hub Service to Major US and Foreign Destinations Percent Change Nonstop Seats vs. QSI, 2006-2013 80% 60% AGS 40% Pct Change 2006 2013 20% 0% 20% 40% BTV ICT MRY FAR AVL CAK BZN 60% 80% 100% RDD TOL Nonstop Seats QSI Study Airports QSI Other 13 March 9, 2015
QSI Estimates by Hub Type, 2006-2013 10,000 9,000 8,000 Average Airport QSI by Hub Group 9,296 Large Hubs 6.7% 8,677 7,000 Avg QSI Points per Airport 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 4,107 Medium Hubs 18.7% 3,339 2,000 1,000 0 1,544 325 Small Hubs 17.8% Non Hubs 11.6% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,270 288 14 March 9, 2015
QSI Example: Monterey CA (MRY) October 2006 October 2013 Carrier Destination Service Carrier Destination Service United San Francisco 7x/day United San Francisco 5x/day Denver 1x/day Denver 1x/day Los Angeles 6x/day Los Angeles 3x/day American Los Angeles 4x/day American Los Angeles 3x/day Delta Salt Lake City 2x/day Allegiant Las Vegas 2x/wk America West Phoenix 2x/day US Airways Phoenix 3x/day Las Vegas 4x/wk TOTAL 22.5x/day TOTAL 17x/day 2006 vs 2013 Reductions in service to network hubs at San Francisco, Los Angeles and Salt Lake City by United, American and Delta Small increase in service to Phoenix by US Airways Total airport QSI declined from 514 in 2006 to 451 in 2013 (-12%) Service to most destinations declined, but actually increased at some 15 March 9, 2015
Ongoing Analysis of Airport Access to the Air Transportation Network www.gra-inc.com Areas of Practice Insights Adjustments and improvements from current analysis: Looks at domestic airports of all sizes, not just Small and Non-hubs Considers economic importance of destinations 16 March 9, 2015
Given Air Service Environment, What Have Airports Done to Retain or Attract Service? Incentive Types Offered by Small and Non-Hub Airports Has the Incentive Program Been Effective? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% No 13% Need More Time 11% Yes 76% Survey of 78 Small and Non-hub Airports Conducted in December 2013 17 March 9, 2015
Community-Driven Air Service Development Typical actors: Air Service Coalition Economic Development Corp. Chamber of Commerce Convention and Visitors Bureau Local business owners Tourism drivers Types of incentives: Minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) Travel banks Community advertising Federal Programs: Small Community Air Service Development (SCASD) grants 18 March 9, 2015
Case Studies and Focus Groups Case studies built from interviews with airport managers and consultants and media reports. Case study selection driven by: Recent air service performance Recent economic performance Geographical diversity Focus Group site selection driven by: Type(s) of air service development incentives Level of community involvement in air service development 19 March 9, 2015
Focus Groups Focus Group Locations: Fargo, ND (FAR); Sonoma, CA (STS); Asheville, NC (AVL); Redding, CA (RDD); Toledo, OH (TOL) Two day site visit comprised of: Interviews with airport manager, air service development consultant, local economic development director, Chamber of Commerce officials, and Convention and Visitors Bureau. Focus group session with local business owners and citizens Gain insight into communitydriven ASD efforts and develop lessons learned and strategies that may be replicable in other locations. 20 March 9, 2015
Seats by Type of Carrier for Small Hub Case Study Airports, 2001 2013 21 March 9, 2015
Seats by Type of Carrier for Non-Hub Case Study Airports, 2001 2013 22 March 9, 2015
Population and PDEW Change for Non-Hub Airports, 2002 2013 23 March 9, 2015
Population and PDEW Change for Small Hub Airports, 2002 2013 24 March 9, 2015
Lessons Learned Air service development is relative. Air carriers do not choose new routes in a vacuum but through a comparative analysis of profitability across communities. Many of the factors that determine whether an air carrier will start new service in a community are out of the hands of airport and community leaders. When deciding whether to initiate an air service development program, communities must weigh the cost of the initial investment in incentives for new air service with the likelihood that their market can sustain the service once the incentives end. As communities look to organize and develop air service development efforts, alternative modes of transportation that take passengers to larger hub airports are an effective way to build community support for the local airport. 25 March 9, 2015
Due to industry demand-reduction and the competitive nature of air service development, a focus on retaining existing air service can be an effective strategy. 26 March 9, 2015
Due to industry demand-reduction and the competitive nature of air service development, a focus on retaining existing air service can be an effective strategy. 27 March 9, 2015
There is little connection between air service growth and population growth; however, there is a stronger connection between air service growth and regional employment change 140% 120% STS 100% Seat Change 2001-2013 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% CAK ICT AVL AGS MRY ECP FAR BZN -60% -80% -100% TOL RDD -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Employment Change 2001-2013 28 March 9, 2015
Community-driven incentive programs also are a signal to air carriers of a community s commitment and demand for new service. Therefore incentives based entirely on SCASD funds are a signal of weak community support 160% 140% 120% 100% SCASDP Grant Recipient No Yes STS Seat Change 2001-2013 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% BTV MRY AVL ICT CAK ECP FAR BZN AGS -60% -80% -100% RDD TOL 29 March 9, 2015
Incentives are a complement, not a substitute, for underlying local demand. There is no silver bullet incentive. Minimum Revenue Guarantee Travel Bank 30 March 9, 2015
Although incentive programs can influence air carrier decisions at the margins, local economic growth and market demand are the factors most likely to influence air carrier decision-making. 70% Importance of Airport/Community Incentives 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Important only if Market Seems Feasible Don't Hurt But Never Are a Decision Maker 31 March 9, 2015
Air Service Development Strategies and Self- Assessment Tool (DRAFT) 32 March 9, 2015
Air Service Development Strategies and Self- Assessment Tool (DRAFT) Strong Regional Economic Performance Ensure that Major Businesses that Depend on Air Service are Active Members of Airline Attraction Committees Officials Should Routinely Meet to Quantify Both Realized and Unrealized Demand for Air Service Generated by Changes in Economic Indicators and Demographic Factors. Weak Regional Economic Performance Airport Managers Should Be Actively Involved in Local Economic Development Efforts to Attract New Businesses or Industries to a Region Airport Experience Branding or Tourism Investment Can be an Effective Strategy to Overcome Limited Economic Growth and Generate Demand for New Service Use Indicators of Strong Economic Performance to Expand Existing Service 33 March 9, 2015
Air Service Development Strategies and Self- Assessment Tool (DRAFT) Strong Level of Community Engagement Airport Managers Must Continue to Educate and Reach Out to Local Businesses and Civic Groups on the Performance of the Airport and the Airline Industry. Formalize Governance Arrangements to Allow for Nimble Responses to Future Air Service Development Opportunities Weak Level of Community Engagement Airport Managers Must Establish Education and Outreach Programs that Communicate the Value of the Airport to the Community Develop Close Working Relationships with Key Community and Economic Leaders Such as the EDC, CVB, and Chamber of Commerce 34 March 9, 2015
ACRP 03-29 Materials Searchable database of airport-specific air service performance data from 2001-2013. Guidebook that contains case studies, focus groups, lessons learned and strategies for airport managers and community leaders: Linking Economic Performance and Air Service Development Developing an Air Service Development Program Identifying an Air Carrier and a New Destination Developing an Effective Incentive Program Meeting with Air Carriers and Community Leaders Ensuring the Sustainability of New Service Airport/Community Self-Assessment Tool and Customized Strategies for Air Service Development 35 March 9, 2015