An evaluation of the responses to the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake Vivienne Ivory, Opus Research, Opus International Consultants Ltd
A collaboration to evaluate, learn, & monitor Liam Wotherspoon, Seosamh Costello, Mohammad Aghababaei: University of Auckland Joanne Stevenson: Resilient Organisations Vivienne Ivory, Maggie Trotter: Opus International Consultants Thomas Wilson, Alistair Davies: University of Canterbury Garry McDonald: Market Economics Shelley Tucker, Roger Fairclough, Nick Paterson, Geoff Parr, Aidan Smith, Tim Herbert: Ministry of Transport
Disruption to moving people & goods
Disruption decisions
Transport infrastructure performance and management in the South Island of New Zealand, during the first 100 days following the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake Preventative mitigation lessons Davies et al. (2017) Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 50, No. 2, June 2017 PINCHPOINTS: SH6 section of SH1 diversion and the MNL have zero redundancy (in the past 5 months, state highways and railways have been closed by earthquakes, landslides, rural fires and flooding). NETWORK LIMITATIONS: Pre-disaster resilience works could have decreased SH1 diversion disruption and improved air travel into Kaikōura. Response and recovery lessons RECOVERY PLANNING Pre-established stakeholder relationships could have improved response and public messaging. COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS Towns without road access for 15 days.
Economic impact of the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake: Bringing it all together in MERIT. Dr Garry McDonald, Dr Nicola Smith, Dr Emily Harvey, Dr Morag Ayers and John Kim Estimated Contributions of Transport, Business Operability and Tourism to Total Impacts GDP impacts by component 0-12 months Time Period After Event Total 12-24 Total (0-24 months (0-24 months) months) Share of GDP impacts (%) 0-12 months Time Period After Event Total 12-24 Total (0-24 months (0-24 months) months) Share of GDP impacts (%) Transport - all New Zealand -151-58 -209 45% -167-97 -263 51% Canterbury -39-11 -50 43% -45-23 -68 49% Rest of New Zealand -112-47 -159 46% -121-74 -196 52% Business operability 1 - all NZ -274-3 -277 60% -279 1-278 54% Canterbury -52 1-51 44% -57 1-56 41% Rest of New Zealand -222-4 -226 65% -222 1-222 59% Tourism - all New Zealand 19 1 19-4% 19 1 20-4% Canterbury -17 1-16 14% -21 1-20 14% Rest of New Zealand 36-1 35-10% 40-1 40-11% Notes: 1. This includes supply-side impacts on tourism businesses OPTIONS 1&2 OPTION 3 Estimated GDP impacts ($ 2016 m) Estimated GDP impacts ($ 2016 m) Rapid assessment of the economic impacts as part of the wider information response to support decisionmaking
Central Local National Crisis Mgmt Centre Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (international assistance) National Security Committee of Cabinet (NSC) CDEM Group Emergency Mgmt Office/EEC Emergency services personnel RESPONSE + PREPERATION NZ Search and Rescue USAR staff RESPONSE RESPONSE + RECOVERY + PREPERATION RECOVERY + PREPERATON New Zealand Transport Agency Lifelines groups (power, water, roads, ports) Local Govt politicians, councillors Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Mgmt Ministry of Transport RESPONSE + RECOVERY KiwiRail Port companies (Centreport, Marl., Nelson) Network contractors NOC Seismologists, assessors, engineers, planners designers, & other scientists State highways Ports Defence Force Road freight/ Trucking companies Local authority roads Embassies (e.g. Chinese, Brit, US) Road Network Mgmt Alliance Local business community ATRF: Tuesday Poster 69 RECOVERY Rail freight companies Hospitality and tourist operators Social and business recovery managers Consultants Land care Producers/ manufacturers Retailers Tankers Treasury Industry reps and lobby groups Synlait EQC Insurance Professional bodies & unions Air freight companies Ferry and other shipping companies Fonterra Contractors Farmers/growers Identified by all experts Identified by 3 + Identified by 2 + Identified by 1
Better information for better learning & planning Inter-regional, multi-modal Users of information = investors, managers, transport network users Across the disaster risk reduction cycle Readiness Response Recovery Reduction
Research goals Observe System disruption Adaptation Learn Information flows & decisions Lessons Monitor System performance Data requirements
Research Programme: key steps Gather Workshop Wider engagement In-depth enquiry Tool development Data gap identification Data gathering Monitoring Report System performance Data requirements
Research Programme: Next steps Gather Workshop Wider engagement In-depth enquiry Tool development Data gap identification Data gathering Monitoring Report System performance Data requirements
Data, data everywhere (except where you need it) Mapping consequences Timeline of decisions Timeline of information generation & use
Research Programme How you can help What information do you need in these circumstances? What data can you share? For Kaikoura case For future cases Contact details: Vivienne.Ivory@opus.co.nz t.herbert@transport.govt.nz l.wotherspoon@auckland.ac.nz