ACTION PLAN SUMMARY AREA OBJECTIVES/TARGETS/ACTIONS TARGET DATES I. IMPROVING TECHNICAL STANDARDS AND RELATED RULES 1. Noise More stringent international standards and rules for transition By 21 (33 rd ICAO Assembly) 2. Gaseous Emissions NOX More stringent international rules By 21 (33 rd ICAO Assembly) CO2 and other greenhouse gases Reductions according to the targets of the Kyoto protocol. 21 for review and update (33 rd ICAO Assembly) LTO emissions Provide proposal for an equivalent charge By 21 (33 rd ICAO Assembly) Emission methodologies To be improved, in co-operation with SBSSTA and CAEP By 21 (33 rd 3. Operational Measures ICAO Assembly) Air Management Traffic Improve ATM efficiency Communication end 1999 II. STRENGTHENING MARKET INCENTIVES 1. Economic Incentives Aviation charges Proposal for an aviation charge By early 21 (after CAEP 5) Emission trading Explore benefits/risks By 21 Carbon offsets Explore benefits/risks By 21 2. Encouraging Industry Initiatives EMAS Encourage airports/airlines to register under the new EMAS regulation (upcoming) New regulation 2) EMAS (mid Voluntary agreements Suggest voluntary agreements on emission reductions. Early 2 launch of substantive discussions 27
1. A Common Noise Classification Scheme 2. A Framework for Noise Measurement A Framework for Landuse Rules 3. A Community Framework for Operating Rules 4. Introducing More Stringent Noise Rules at Individual Airports 5. The role of other modes R&D Monitoring III. ASSISTING AIRPORTS Proposal for a Community framework on noise classification Proposal for a common noise measurement index, a methodology for noise calculation and minimum requirements for noise monitoring Guidance on best practices for land-use decisions Framework fo procedural rules, best practices dissemination Analyse appropriateness of a Community system for identifying noise-sensitive airports Working towards for more effective air/rail intermodality IV- ADVANCING TECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENT (R&D) Develop inventories of statistics and indicators through the Transport and Environment Review Mechanism (TERM) process. By 2 By 21 By 21 (Report) By 21 (Report) By 21 (Report) Ongoing Ongoing (5 th and 6 th R&D framework programme) TERM-Zero report to be published in early 2, review by 22 28
ANNEX 1 EU Passenger Transport Performance Main Modes of Transport Figure 1: Performance by mode 1 mio pkm Passenger Buses & Tram + Railway Air* cars Coaches Metro 197 1 583 27 38 217 43 198 2 333 347 4 253 96 199 3 32 369 48 274 24 1994 3 584 374 41 27 254 1995 3 656 384 41 27 274 1996 3 71 386 41 279 29 1997 3 787 393 41 282 322 199-97 +15% +6% -13% +3% +58% Total 2 151 3 69 4 197 4 523 4 624 4 77 4 826 +15% Source : ECMT, UIC, UITP, national statistics and estimates Notes : * European traffic, Source : AEA, IATA and estimates Worldwide traffic of EU carriers was 55 bio pkm in 1995 EU Passenger Transport performance by mode (1 mio pkm) 1997 1996 1995 1994 199 198 197 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Passenger cars Buses & Coaches Tram + Metro Railway Air* Source: EU TRANSPORT IN FIGURES, STATISTICAL POCKETBOOK, DG TRANS, EUROSTAT 29
MARKET DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY Figure 2: Growth and Forecast in Scheduled Air Traffic Capacity Seat Km Offered (billion) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, Historical Forecast Central High; Central GDP + 3% Average 5.9%p.a 1996-215 Low; Central GDP - 3% Average 3.7% p.a 1996-215 2, 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Figure 3: Capacity Forecast by Geographical Region 1, Seat Kilometres Offered (billion) 8, 6, 4, 2, Historical Europe SE Asia USA & Canada Rest of the World 17% 38% 19% 26% Forecast 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Note: World regions grouped for clarity 17% 33% 28% 22% Source: ECAC/ANCAT (Expert group on Abatement of Noise Caused by Air Transportation) 3
Figure 4: Capacity Trend 1 8 ASK (1 12 ) 6 4 Growth 2 Rem aining base fleet Replacem ent 1994 1999 24 29 214 ASK: Available Seat Kilometres Source: ECAC/ANCAT (Expert group on Abatement of Noise Caused by Air Transportation) 31
MARKET DEVELOPMENT - DEMAND Figure 5: Growth Situation of Aviation +66% +45% 86 552 +14% Europe North America 53 +54% 91 44 +65% South America Africa +89% Middle-East 47 Asia/Pacific 1^9 RPK (Revenue Passenger km) Year Total Forecast 1992 23 1953 +75% Source: DLR (Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt) 32
Figure 6: Forecast of Passenger Demand in Aviation (1^9 Revenue Passenger Kilometre) 1 BOEING RPK * 1^9 8 6 AIRBUS ICAO ANCAT/EC2 7 % PAX LF 5% per annum 4 2 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 YEAR Source DLR (Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt) 33
FUEL CONSUMPTION AND CONSUMPTION EFFICIENCY Figure 7: Growth of Air Traffic and Fuel Consumption 2 15 + % 1 DEMAND (RPK) 5 FUEL 1996 2 24 28 212 216 22 YEAR RPK= Revenue Passenger Kilometres Source: Assessment using Boeing Market Outlook 34
Figure 8: Engine Technology Steps and Gain of SFC SFC [kg/dan/h] 1, Turbojet,8,6 18% 2% 12% 1.Gen Turbofans 2.Gen 3.Gen Propfan?,4,3 Limit of an ideal engine Year 195 196 197 198 199 2 Source: MTU/DLR (Specific Fuel Consumption) at cruise conditions Note: Specific Fuel Consumption means the amount of fuel weight flow to an engine's combustor in kg per hour (kg/h) divided by the amount of thrust produced by the engine in dekanewton (dan=1 N) 35
Figure 9: Development of Aircraft Fuel Consumption per 1 Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) Litre/1 km 12 Comet 1 8 1 NM trip global average(1992) from ANCAT/EC2 6 B727-1 B77-12 B737-2 B737-3 4 DC 9-3 B747-4 B747-2B 2 A3 B767 A32 A34-3 Year 195 196 197 198 199 Source: DLR (Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt) 36
Figure 1: Aircraft and Engine Fuel Efficiency Improvement (Long range transport) 1 8 Engine 6 Aircraft % -2.% 4 2-4.5% per annum -1.8% -2.6% -.6% -1.3% 196 197 198 199 2 Year Source: DLR Base: B77 37
Figure 11 : Number of commercial aircraft by N oise certification operated in EU ICAO noise classifications: Chapter 1: aircraft types certified before 197 (e.g. Boeing 77) Chapter 2: aircraft types certified between 197 and 1978 (e.g. Boeing 747-2 ) Chapter 3: aircraft typescertified after 1978 (e.g. AirbusA31) SS - Super Sonic (Concorde) Stage 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Chapter 1 1 2 2 2 Chapter 2 69 632 551 457 397 358 299 26 224 Chapter 3 193 1336 1515 1613 1723 1883 222 2195 2448 Super Sonic 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 Total 1798 1982 28 284 2134 2254 2336 247 2687 (source: Airclaims ) EU noise stage evolution 199-1998 25 2 15 1 Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Super Sonic 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 38 1995 1996 1997 1998
Fuel burned, Nox and CO 2 forecast 1991/2 and 215 EU 1992 EU215 USA 1992 USA 215 World 1992 World 215 Fuel (Tg) 15,5 29,5 29,9 51,4 17,4 226,5 Nox* (as Gg NO 2 ) 177 331,5 327,3 557,7 1317,8 2678,8 CO 2 (Tg) 49,3 94,3 95,5 164 342,9 723,4 Source : ANCAT / ECAC Tg (teragram) = 1 12 grams Gg (gigagram) = 1 9 grams *asggno 2 Notes: Notes: The data excludes the following: 1. Dedicated freight traffic 2. Business jet traffic 3. Military traffic 4. General aviation and helicopters 5. Carriers from the former Soviet Union and Eastern European states Figure 12: Fuel and NOx forecast for 1992 and 215 World 215 World 1992 USA 215 USA 1992 CO2 (Tg) Nox* (as Gg NO2) Fuel (Tg) EU215 EU 1992 1 1 1 1 Teragrams (except for NOX which is in Gigagrams) 39
Figure 13: Annual emissions of NO x (Gg NO 2 ) from civil aviation and percentage of global totals 1991/92 Legend: upper figure is the NO x emission lower is the percentage of global total Latitude 9 6 3-3 -6-9 15.97 1. 78.91 4.92 35.12 2.19 6.13.38.57.4.3 <.1 7.16.45 47.94 29.36 85.59 5.34 7.63.48 2.65.17.4 <.1 1.39.65 16.63 1.2 18.54 1.16 24.17 1.51 2.7.17 11.78.73 242.23 15.1 44.92 2.8 14.2.89 1.32.8 6.77.42 38.42 2.4 11.1 6.3 14.29.89 1.21.8 2.44.15 124.38 7.76 31.32 1.95 21.3 1.33 2.94 1.31-12 -6 6 12 18 Longitude Figure 14: Annual consumption of fuel (Tg ) from civil aviation and percentage of global totals, 1991/92 Legend: upper figure is the fuel burn lower is the percentage of global total Latitude 9 6 3-3 -6-9.97.85 5.23 4.58 2.13 1.86.37.33.3.3 <.1 <.1.45.39 36.98 32.38 6.78 5.94.61.54.23.2 <.1 <.1.65.57 1.89 9.53 1.2 1.5 1.74 1.52.19.17.83.73 17.97 15.74 2.93 2.57.91.79.11.9.47.41 2.73 2.39 6.43 5.63.98.86.8.7.17.15 7.29 6.38 1.96 1.71 1.48 1.29 1.45 1.27 <.1 < -12-6 6 12 18 Longitude source : ANCAT/ECAC 4