State of the Economy St. John's Metro

State of the Economy St. John's Metro

Published by: Department of Economic Development, Tourism & Culture City of St. John's Email: business@stjohns.ca Although every effort has been made to ensure the completeness and accuracy of the information contained in this publication, the City of St. John s does not guarantee, warrant or make any representations, express or otherwise, that the information contained herein is complete and correct. All numbers are nominal unless otherwise stated. Publication date: April 2013

St. John's is an economic driver. St. John's CMA s 1 share of total provincial GDP is about 50%. 50.0% St. John's CMA Share of Provincial GDP - 2012 CMA Other NL 50.0% In 1992, 32.1% of the NL population lived in the St. John's CMA. By 2012, that had risen to 39.1% 1 St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a geographic area defined by Statistics Canada that includes St. John s and several neighbouring communities. St. John s CMA may also be referred to as St. John s metro throughout this document. Please refer to the following website for a map of St. John s CMA http://stats.gov.nl.ca/maps/ Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

St. John's metro economic indicators positive 2011 2012e Retail trade +6.5% +6.9% Labour force +3.2% +4.3% Employment +4.5% +3.6% Unemployment rate 6.6% 7.2% Personal income +7.7% +7.8% Real GDP (2007$M) +1.1% -0.4% Table shows change from previous year. 2012 data is a preliminary estimate Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

Economic growth and oil production Real GDP growth in the St. John s CMA is more sensitive to changes in oil production. The majority of oil industry activity is resident in the area, therefore most of the province s oil-related Real GDP is allocated to the CMA. Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

Source: CNLOPB Oil production is projected to decline in the long term, impacting local and provincial economies.

Millions of dollars in proposed and ongoing projects for St. John's. Project $20 M Henry Bell Developments - two condo projects including parking garage, Duckworth/Henry St. $150 Long term care facility, Pleasantville $100 Convention Centre expansion, New Gower St. * $53 Fortis office building, New Gower St./Springdale St. $50 Eastport Properties office building, Water St. $46 Deacon Investments office building, Job St. $40 Hotels (Water St., Kenmount Rd., Stavanger Dr.) $38 St. John's International Airport, Cat 3 Landing System $26 Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects. * Value of Convention Centre expansion main building Source: City of St. John's

Major projects in the province are making significant investments and boosting the local economy. Hebron Offshore Oil Development, $14 B Vale Long Harbour Nickel Processing Facility, $4.25 B ($US) Hibernia Southern Extension Unit, $1.7 B Lower Churchill Phase 1, Muskrat Falls, $6.2 B Iron Ore Company of Canada Mine Expansion, $828 M Suncor Energy / Terra Nova Expenditures, $254 M Husky Energy / South White Rose Extension, $1.2 B Tata Steel Direct Shipping Iron Ore Project, $630 M Alderon Iron Ore Corp. Kami Project, $1.273 B Note : This is not a complete list of Major Projects. Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

In 2012, the CMA recorded its 11 th consecutive annual population increase. 210 Population - St. John's CMA 1986-2012 200 201,038 Thousands 190 180 170 173,258 160 Source: Population estimates, Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

The population of the St. John s CMA increased 13.9% between the 2001 and 2011 census years. During this time period the population of the communities surrounding the capital city grew by 23.1% while the population of the City of St. John s increased 7.0%. Source: Statistics Canada

Young Children, Young Adults and Seniors in St. John's CMA had a faster population growth rate than Canada between 2006 and 2011 25 20 15 10 Population Growth Rates by Age Category, St. John's CMA Compared to National Level, 1996-2011 (%) CMA 16.5 Can 11.0 9.2 7.1 20.7 14.1 5 0 0-4 20-34 65+ Age Category Source: Statistics Canada

Approximately one in four (26.9%) students enrolled at MUN in 2012 were from out of province (4,905 out of 18,236). The number of other Canadian students enrolled at MUN doubled since 2003. Meanwhile, the number of international students increased by 195% during the same time period and increased 19.0% in 2012. Number of International Students and Other Canadian Students Enrolled at MUN 2003-2012 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Other Canadian International 2852 2861 2602 2373 1991 1797 1598 3021 3196 3211 1694 574 689 797 864 978 948 1143 1273 1423 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador (MUN).

We have strengths in several areas. Offshore Energy Fueling local economy, St. John's main service centre. Ocean Technology One of the fastest growing segments of the provincial economy, based largely in the metro area. Tourism Iconic tourism destination, growth sector. Arts & Culture A cultural capital.

We are a city of small business. Half of our businesses have less than 5 employees. Source: Statistics Canada

Increasing labour force participation key component in long term economic growth. 72.3% 64.7% 66.7% 63.4% Source: Statistics Canada

Annual unemployment rate in the St. John's CMA shows steady decline since 1996. The 2012 unemployment rate is half of the rate reported in 1996. 16 Annual Unemployment Rate (%) St. John's CMA 1996-2012 14 12 14.0 13.5 12.2 10 8 10.2 9.5 9.2 9.2 9.9 9.0 8.8 8.1 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.2 6 6.9 6.6 4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Statistics Canada

Total employment in the St. John s CMA increased by 10,000+ over the past three years and almost 30,000 since 1996. The majority of employment growth over the past three years was full-time (97.1%). The number employed as a percentage of the total labour force increased from 86% in 1996 to 92.8% in 2012. Thousands 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 Total # of People Employed in St. John's CMA 109.2 80 75 80.6 70 Source: Statistics Canada

Incomes are on the rise, increasing 51% since January 2005, 13.4% over the past two years and 6.2% in the past year. Average January Weekly Earnings St. John's CMA 2005-2012 $1,000 $900 $913 $800 $700 $658 $748 $781 $805 $860 $600 $605 $640 $500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM)

St. John s had the largest increase in median family incomes among major Canadian cites between 2006 and 2010. The median family income in the St. John s CMA rose by $15,110 or 23.9% compared to the Canadian average increase of $6,260 or 9.8%. Source: Statistics Canada Median total income, all census families, by metropolitan area $ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- $ Change % Change Year 2006 2008 2010 06 to10 06 to10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ottawa 84,000 90,990 94,700 10,700 12.7% Calgary 83,500 91,570 89,490 5,990 7.2% Edmonton 79,300 88,190 87,930 8,630 10.9% Regina 72,200 81,480 84,890 12,690 17.6% Saskatoon 68,300 77,740 80,570 12,270 18.0% St. John's 63,100 72,120 78,210 15,110 23.9% Halifax 67,600 74,040 76,500 8,900 13.2% Quebec 67,100 73,780 76,450 9,350 13.9% Winnipeg 64,700 70,510 72,050 7,350 11.4% Toronto 63,800 68,120 68,110 4,310 6.8% Vancouver 62,900 68,670 67,090 4,190 6.7% Montreal 60,800 65,660 67,010 6,210 10.2% Canada 63,600 68,860 69,860 6,260 9.8%

Driven by gains in personal income and high levels of consumer confidence, retail sales have increased by $1.72 billion over the past 10 years (+86.7%). Retail Sales - St. John's CMA 2002-2012 Billions $ 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 3.70 3.25 3.03 3.44 3.12 2.61 2.76 2.27 2.53 2.28 1.98 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

The average MLS 1 housing price more than doubled over the last 6 years (+104.7%), and increased 6.3% in 2012. 325 Average MLS Housing Price in St. John's 2005-2012 300 Thousands $ 275 250 225 200 218.9 251.2 268.6 285.5 175 150 125 141.2 139.5 157.0 178.5 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 MLS (Multiple Listing Service) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data.

St. John's CMA housing starts increased 167% since 1999 and increased 12.0% to 2,153 units in 2012. Meanwhile, housing starts in the City of St. John s increased 5.5% in 2012 to a record 1,001 starts. Housing Starts - St. John's and CMA 1999-2012 2500 CMA St. J ohn's 2153 2000 1500 1350 1604 1834 1534 1480 1863 1703 1816 1923 1000 500 807 579 935 713 1029 398 585 751 932 783 1275 579 713 670 751 701 949 1001 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: CMA housing starts include St. John's housing starts. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Although vacancy rates have increased slightly the last few years, the rate remains low from a historical perspective. 20 Vacancy Rates - St. John's (%) 1995-2012 18 16.6 16 15.4 15.4 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10.8 9.2 3.8 2.5 2.7 2.0 3.1 4.5 5.1 2.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.8 1.3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

The value of permits in the City of St. John's increased 12.1% to $432.4 million in 2012. The increase was lead by commercial permits, up 116% or $118.3 million to $220.1 million. Meanwhile, the value of Government permits declined 54.5% to $16.3 million and the value of residential permits declined 21.0% to $196.0 million. Source: City of St. John's Com = Commercial Permits, Res = Residential Permits; Gov = Government Permits

Office vacancy rates have declined substantially since 2005. Class A* vacancy is currently at 0%. 1st Quarter Office Market Vacancy - St. John's CMA (%) 2005-2012 14 12 11.7 Class A Overall 10 8 6 4 2 0 8.5 5.7 3.9 4.6 4.1 2.6 2.4 3.7 1.1 0.8 2.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * Class A buildings in St. John's are: Baine Johnson Building, Fort William Building, Cabot Place, and Scotia Centre. Source: Cushman Wakefield Atlantic

Total port cargo has increased 3.5% over the last ten years while vessel arrivals have increased by 29.7%. Note: vessel arrivals exclude non-commercial, e.g., Department of National Defence and small commercial vessels entering the Port of St. John s. Source: St. John's Port Authority

Passenger traffic reaches record high at St. John's International Airport. The number of passenger movements increased 5.5% in 2012 to approximately 1.45 million. Thousands 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 Airline Passenger Movements at St. John's International Airport 1999-2012 (000's) 802 852 922 869 950 1083 1175 1243 1185 1223 1224 1319 1371 1447 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PAST 10 YEARS St. John's 66.6% PAST 3 YEARS St. John's 18.2% PAST YEAR St. John's 5.5% Source: St. John's International Airport Authority and Transport Canada

Tourism revenues in the St. John's CMA rise 65.5% over the past 10 years. Source: Provincial Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation and City of St. John's

St. John's CMA hosted 386,713 out of province visitors in 2011, majority arrive by air. Source: Provincial Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation and City of St. John's

St. John's had the 3 rd highest hotel occupancy rate (72.5%) in Canada in 2012. The St. John's rate increased 0.7 percentage points from 71.8% in 2011. Saskatoon Regina St. John's Calgary Thunder Bay Ottawa Vancouver Edmonton Toronto Winnipeg Montreal Halifax Victoria Canada Quebec City Moncton Alberta Resorts Whistler Hotel Occupancy Rates (%) Major Canadian Destinations - 2012 56.4 55.0 74.3 72.7 72.5 70.5 70.3 67.1 69.5 66.5 66.4 66.0 65.1 62.2 64.0 61.8 61.5 59.3 30 40 50 60 70 80 Note: Occupancy rates reflect all rooms sold for all purposes including tourism, conventions, business etc. Source: Destination St. John s and PKF Consulting Inc.

Number of convention delegates remained stable in 2012 with 22,149 delegates. 40 # Convention Delegates - St. John's 2003-2012 30 25.1 Thousands 20 20.0 19.0 22.2 17.5 22.9 22.7 22.1 10 15.5 16.0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Destination St. John's.

St. John's CMA has a higher percentage of its labour force in arts occupations (0.98%) than the Canadian average (0.77%). The St. John's labour force also has a higher percentage of cultural workers (3.9%) than Canada (3.3%). Source: Analysis by Hill Strategies Research based on a 2006 census custom data request

Perceptions are changing. [St. John s].feverish activity in the oil and gas sector has helped lift St. John s onto the A list of cities St. John s record-high productivity has recently outpaced that of Calgary and Edmonton. City Magnets ll: Benchmarking the Attractiveness of 50 Canadian Cities Conference Board of Canada, January 2010 "As a have-not, there was a lot of psychological baggage. Now, a positive change is starting to take place in the perception of ourselves as a distinct society. What was despair, not knowing what ll happen because of the fishery closing, has turned to hope. Curtis Andrews in Up! Magazine and St. John's Newfoundland where they have initiated world class educational programs to support their offshore energy development. Jack B. Moore, CEO, Cameron St. John s has begun to rival Halifax as Atlantic Canada s hipster nexus thanks to a network of artists, musicians and entrepreneurs. Steven English, Arrival Magazine, 2009

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