3rd INDONESIA INVESMENT FORUM 2018 PROF. WIHANA KIRANA JAYA, Special Advisor to the Minister of Transportation on Economic and Investment Affairs
OUTLINE General Information WHERE DO WE WANT TO GO? CURRENT INDONESIA S MEGA PROJECT How To Invest In Transport Sector
1 GENERAL INFORMATION 3
INDONESIA S POTENTIAL ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH % of Economic Global Growth (2017-2019) (estimated) Over next three years, it is estimated that the $75 trillion global economy will expand by another %6,5 trillion. Indonesia will account for 2.5% of global GDP growth in 2017-2019 (estimated) The World Bank projects growth for the country at 5.3% this year, and 5.5% for the next two years. Source: visualcapitalist.com
Why Indonesia? Indonesia has shown progressive achievement in the past years I do esia s Ease of Doi g Business Rank, 2013-2017 2013 Target in 2019 Rank 40 2 2014 2017
Transport and Economic Development
INDONESIA GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS Global Competitiveness Index Ease of Doing Business (EODB) Logistics Performance Index (LPI) 2016
GENERAL INFORMATION INDONESIA S INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
I. INDONESIA S INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INTERNASIONAL The Global Competitiveness Index rating Indonesia is INCREASED Indonesia elected as a member of the Council of IMO category C. Period2018-2019 DOMESTIC Transportation Contribution to GDP (%) 2017 Quarter II: 5.48% Operation of Eid Lebaran Guyun Rukun 2017 13 Sea Toll Route Achieved world class flights. Flight safety audit results 81.15% 2nd place for flight safety in ASEAN Improved ship-based digital services (Inaportnet) Dwelling time decrease in 4 major ports Transportation Of Cargo Ship
I. INDONESIA S INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ON SUB SECTOR LAND RAILWAY PORT AIRPORT URBAN TRANSPORTATION Ter i al Reha ilitatio Lo atio s Port Crossi gs Lo atio s Ship Crossi g UNIT The o stru tio of the rail ay li e. KM I pro e e t & Reha ilitatio of KA Trails. KM Co stru tio of Statio UNIT Sea Port De elop e t Co stru tio of Pio eer Ships u its Co ti ued Co stru tio of Pio eer Ships PALEMBANG Progress 77,31 % (8 des 17) Target Operation on Juny 2018 u its Co stru tio of Ne Airport Airports Develop e t of Settle e t Tra sport JRCONNEXION Regio s Develop e t of Area Traffi Co trol S ste ATCS Corridor phase I Pro ure e t of Natio al Road Safet Fa ilities 6 Seg e ts I tegratio of Bulk Pu li Tra sport S ste SAUM Masterpla of Top Dukuh TOD Pre iu Airport Tra sport Servi e 9 Fleet servi g 6 Routes Spe ial La e of Pu li Tra sport LKAU TRAYEK Li e si g O li e Re t Tra sportatio U its Sea Toll Program: Cement price in Wamena decrease 40% Rice price in Biak decrease 29%
2 WHERE DO WE WANT TO GO? CONNECTING INDONESIA THROUGH INTEGRATED TRANSPORT NETWORK 11
CONNECTING INDONESIA THROUGH INTEGRATED TRANSPORT NETWORK
POSSIBILITY COOPERATION BETWEEN INDONESIA-MALAYSIA SMART INFRASTRUCTURE Access to various modes of transportation Prioritizing green public transport Integrated with technology Featured Program: TOURISTS DESTINATIONS CREATE NEW BALI OTHER MOT PROJECT
3 CURRENT INDONESIA S MEGA PROJECT TO STRENGTHENING CONNECTIVITY 14
SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE (SEZ) NATIONAL STRATEGIC TOURISM ZONE (NSTZ) TOURISTS DESTINATIONS TOBA LAKE THOUSAND ISLAND DESTINATIONS ADDED BY MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION CAPE KELAYANG MOROTAI WAKATOBI RAJA AMPAT WAMENA BANYUWANGI CAPE LESUNG BOROBUDUR MOUNT BROMO REGION MANDALIKA LABUAN BAJO 15
II. CURRENT INDONESIA S MEGA PROJECT KUALANAMU International Hub Airport Advantages 1 2 3 4 5 The second largest airport in west side of Indonesia after Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Expected to Become the new international transit center in south east Asia Connected by the North Sumatera Toll Road The first Airport in Indonesia with direct rail link to /from city center (Medan City) Official 4-Star Skytrax Airport.
II. CURRENT INDONESIA S MEGA PROJECT KUALA TANJUNG Port The development of Kuala Tanjung International Hub Port is one of Indonesia National Strategic Projects. Advantages: Port Location proximity to the international shipping route and will serve one of the biggest market in the world. One of Indonesia National Strategic Projects The integration between industrial zone and port. Therefore, increase accessibility for goods in and goods out. To be a key import/eksport gate way for the Sumatera Economic Corridor It has appropriated access to deep water
II. CURRENT INDONESIA S MEGA PROJECT BALI UTARA International Airport Bali Utara Alternative Ngurah Rai airport that has been over capacity PROJECT COST DURATION PROJECT RETURN PPP STRUCTURE Rp 50 Trillion 30 50 years 14-17 % (DBFOM) Debt to Equity Ratio : 70 % Debt : 30 % equity PJPK MoT
CREATE NEW BALI Mandalika, West Nusa Tenggara Labuan Bajo, East Nusa Tenggara Wakatobi, South Sulawesi Morotai Island, North Maluku Lake Toba, North Sumatra Tanjung Lesung, Banten Kepulauan Seribu, Jakarta Tanjung Kelayang Beach, Bangka Belitung Borobudur Temple, Central Java Mount Bromo, East Java
MOT TO SUPPORT 10 NEW BALI JAKARTA SURABAYA RAILWAY (EKSPRESS TRAIN) Description Scenario B: Adding One Track (single narrow gauge) Scenario C: Adding One Track (single standard gauge) Scenario D: Build a New Track (double standard gauge) Scenario D-1: Build a New Track (single standard gauge) B. Jakarta-Surabaya C. Jakarta-Surabaya D. Jakarta-Surabaya D1. Jakarta-Surabaya 160 kpj 220 kpj 260 kpj 260 kpj Rp. 106,3 T Rp. 121,67 T Rp. 182,20 T Rp. 134,87 T OM Sarana KPBU dg VGF 49% plus Dukungan Pemerintah 20% KPBU dg VGF 49% KPBU dg VGF 49% 3.351.735 People/Yr (2030) 5.499.900 People/Yr (2030) 17.172.754 People/Yr (2030) 17.172.754 People/Yr (2030) Design Speed investation Cooperation Scheme Passanger of EXPRES Train TREM SURABAYA No. Information Total cost per Km (17 Km) LRT MEDAN Total Investation: $ 302 Million Cost (Rp) 5,978,739,388,891 351,690,552,288
4 HOW TO INVEST IN TRANSPORT SECTOR
KEBUTUHAN PEMBIAYAAN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING NEEDS 2015 2019 INFRASTRUKTUR TRANSPORTASI TAHUN 2015-2019 Estimated Funding Capability APBN in accordance with RPJMN Year 2015-2019 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING NEEDS 1400 Private Investment 182 There is an investment financing gap of Rp. 791 Trillion for the period 2015-2019 1200 Rp. 1,283 T (non-road) 1000 563 800 GAP State Owned Enterprise 600 91 PPP 169 400 30 71 101 278 200 Rp. 491 T (non-road) 232 55 0 KA Perkotaan ASDP Laut Udara Darat KA Laut Udara BPSDM Sumber : Bappenas, 2015 Transportation infrastructure funding requirement of Rp.1,283 trillion was obtained through macro approach based on assumption of economic growth in 2019: 6-8%, inflation 2.5-4,5%, interest rate 4-5-6,5%. In addition, the calculation estimate also considers the scenario of transportation financing needs set forth in the Master Plan, Blueprint and Urban Transport Background Review.
BUDGET POLICY FOR TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT commercially visible not commercially visible PRIVATE INVESTMENT GOVERMENT INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVE PRIVATE SECTOR STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES (SOE) INVESTMENT KPBU JV BUMN (BROWNFIELD/GREENFIELD) BUMN APBN/APBD
How To Invest In Transport Sector
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING SOURCE Transport Investment APBN and Public Sector Expenditure Basic infrastructure, non-commercial, noncost-recovery, economically viable, financially unfeasible, nationally strategic, access to underdeveloped and rural areas, enhances national and local economies and is a public service obligation (PSO) PPP Pure Private Investment Basic, commercial and non-commercial infrastructure, potential costrecovery, economically feasible, financially feasible or inadequate, can be feasible where there is government support, national strategic, access to underdeveloped and rural areas, improving national and local economies, supporting logistics and economic corridors Commercial economic infrastructure, full cost-recovery, economically feasible, financially feasible, nationally strategic, access to ports and international airports, enhances national and local economies. The provision of special infrastructure such as Special Railways, Special Ports, and Special Airports can use this scheme with unsolicited and nontender nature. Solicited Government Unsolicited Private Initiative Pure Private Investment Conventional PPP Prepare by The Government PPP Strategic Alliance Government and Private PPP 25
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DETAIL PROJECTS
JAKARTA SURABAYA RAILWAY (EKSPRESS TRAIN) 29
Facilities - Local Industry Opportunities Exterior lighting Interior lighting Air Conditioning Pantograph Aux Electric System Body shell Under frame ETCS ATP ATO Floor Interiors architecture Interiors equipment Toilet system Coupler MAINTENANCE Traction motors Power Converter Traction Control Unit Gear Box Bogie frame Suspension Wheels set Door system Braking system
TREM SURABAYA 31
Reactivation of Surabaya Tram Line Old trace < 1963 Old trace(trem)
Project Description Phase 1 17 km track 29 Tram Stops 25 Tram set 1 Depot dan Stabling Yard 1 Night stay Phase 2 5.5 km track Track Work Standard gauge 1435mm Grooved rail 59R2 Grass Track 6 km Embedded Track 11 km Continuous Welding Rail Full Catenary 6 km track Free Catenary 11 km track Incoming Voltage 20 KV PLN Working Voltage 750 V DC Phase 2 5.5 km track TSS 6 Number of Charging Point (CP) 18 Radius minimum 25 m Ma gradie t Switch and crossing at main line 1:7 R50 18 buah Phase 1 17 km track
Construction Cost Requirement No. Job description 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Project Management, Design and Traffic Management Main Line Works Trackwork for Tram Line Mechanical & Electrical (M&E) Equipment Tram Signal System Telecom System Supervisory Control System Ticketing System Safety & Security System Maintenance (Workshop & Facilities) 11 Operations Control Centre 12 Rolling Stock (25 Tramcar & 3 work vehicles) Total cost per Km (17 Km) Cost (Rp) 476,449,974,000 586,742,312,220 1,110,950,264,399 581,710,793,300 108,484,531,000 22,849,666,000 340,529,935,220 270,846,011,100 283,392,669,000 903,231,773,653 42,168,959,000 1,251,382,500,000 5,978,739,388,891 351,690,552,288
LRT MEDAN 35
LRT Medan Trace
2. Stasiun & Potensi TOD No Name Nama of Stasiun 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Station Universitas Negeri Medan Aksara Al Amin Faisal Tanjung Rumah Sakit Pirngadi Hotel Grand Angkasa Podomoro City Lapangan Merdeka Rumah Sakit Malahayati Kampung Madras Iskandar Muda Rumah Sakit USU USU Pintu 4 Perumahan Setiabudi Pasar 2 Santo Thomas Adam Malik Pasar Lau Cih TOTAL PANJANG Jarakbetween ke stasiun Distance railwaysebelumnya 0km 1,16km 1,10km 1,16km 0,27km 0,89km 0,52km 0,72km 0,61km 1,16km 1,70km 0,41km 1,37km 1,07km 2,07km 2,50km 3,18km 22,74km
Demand LRT (Projection) Total Passanger of LRT 2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 100% 108.928 137.963 183.930 245.212 326.913 435.834 581.047 774.642 80% 87.143 110.370 147.144 196.170 261.530 348.668 464.838 619.714 60% 65.357 82.778 110.358 147.127 196.148 261.501 348.628 464.785
4. Investation/RAB/ CAPEX Tenor rail length Investation per km Total Investation Year Year Mio Rupiah Mio Rupiah Mio Rupiah Mio Rupiah Total Investation + IDC Mio Rupiah