Act 2. Analyst Meeting 27 July 2016

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Transcription:

Act 2 Analyst Meeting 27 July 2016 1

Contents 1. Highlights Page 3 2. Portfolio Page 10 3. Finance Page 26 2

Highlights July 2016 3

Highlights Main financial indicators Gross Rental Income +11% EBITDA Margin 68% Recurring CF 10.4 M EPRA Earnings Group Share +15% +60 bps +12% 7.5 M ANF Share Guidance confirmed Pipeline +63 M Cost of debt 2.7% EPRA Vacancy rate Fair Value -17 M Recurring Cash Flow, Group Share NNNAV/Share 14.9 M +8% 26.2 Portfolio value 1.1 B -50 bps LTV 45.5% Heritage Marseille Retail -4% lfl change after 1.24 dividend 4

Highlights Our pipeline has driven the increase of revenues and Recurring CF Revenues +11% EPRA Earnings (adjusted) +22% (2013 vs 2016) M 27,0 26,0 1,4 Disposal Printemps - Lyon 0,6 0,4 0,0 - M 18,0 16,0 14,0 13,1 13,5 14,6 16,0 25,0 3,7 12,0 8,1 24,0 10,0 23,0 22,0 21,0 20,0-23,2 25,8 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0-13,1 13,5 14,6 7,9 2013 2014 2015 FY 2016 Forecast Hotel B&B Perpignan Areva Part Dieu Lyon Alstom CDS Lyon Hotel B&B Vélo Marseille Banque France Lyon Hotel B&B Bobigny 2014 2015 2016 Adecco TdO Lyon Nautilus BAF Bordeaux La Fabrique Bordeaux Hotel Bègles Bordeaux Hotel AC Vélo Marseille Hotel B&B Allar Marseille Adecco CDS Lyon Impact H1 2016 Revenues & CF To be delivered in 2016 5

Highlights And new projects being added to current pipeline will fuel further growth 2018 Armagnac Bordeaux Offices + Hotel 97 M Current 2017-2019 2019-2020 2019 Le Castel Marseille Offices 19 M 2019-2020 Park View Lyon Offices 53 M New 2019-2020 Rive Neuve Marseille Offices 10 M Park View* Tête d Or Lyon Building permit application filed Development contract signed (53 M CPI) 22 236 m² Rive Neuve - Marseille Building permit obtained, free of all claims 3 641 m² *Formerly known as Future Way - Adecco Tête d Or 6

Highlights Active Asset Management throughout the entire portfolio Lettings Core: Progress on new projects Lettings Heritage: Implementing strategic plan 1) Quai 8.2 Bordeaux 5 000 m² (+ 800 m²) - Allianz 9 years without break option 126 rooms - B&B 12 years without break option 2) Ilot 34 Marseille 3 500 m² - MCM 1 100 m² - SNCM Official Receiver 1) Marseille Retail Vieux-Port King Jouet 600 m² Musée du Savon 800 m² Signature in progress 260 m² 2) Marseille Retail Joliette Copy Top 120 m² Signature in progress 130 m² Deliveries Core: Fueling growth Disposals Heritage: Financing Core portfolio 1) 3 Hotels ANF Immobilier Hotels 26 M - 331 rooms - +1,9 M income 2) Banque de France - Lyon 20 M - 2 500 m² retail - +1,5 M income 3) Adely Adecco Lyon to come in Q3 34 M - 13 000 m² offices - +2,5 M income 1) 21 M signed TAT - Lyon heritage 7 100 m² - Mixed use 2) 13 M Presale agreement 2-3-4 République Lyon heritage 2 000 m² - Retail 7

Highlights Active financial structuring lowering our cost of debt 30 June 2015 30 June 2016 Caps 10% Caps 40% Swaps 60% Swaps 90% Hedging 72% Cost of debt H1 3.2% Hedging 86% Cost of debt H1 2.7% (-50bps) 8

NNNAV NAV Highlights Adjustments to EPRA Triple Net NAV through 3 major effects /share 30,0 29,5 29,0 28,5-1.2 28,0 27,5 27,0 26,5 29,6 28,4-1.0 +0.2-0.2-0.4-0.0 27,4 27,4 27,8 26,0 29,0 28,5 28,0 27,5 31/12/2015 Dividend (Cash) -1.2 31/12/2015 restated Fair Value Change Retail Marseille Fair Value Change Core Fair Value Change Core - Ilot 34 Fa Other Cash Flow 30/06/2016 27,0 26,5 26,0 25,5 25,0 24,5 28,5 27,2-1.0 26,3 +0.2-0.2-0.5-0.0 +0.4 25,7 26,2 24,0 31/12/2015 Dividend (Cash) 31/12/2015 restated Fair Value Change Retail Marseille Fair Value Change Core Fair Value Change Core - Ilot 34 Fair Value Change Hedging Instruments Other Cash Flow 30/06/2016 Decline due to three major effects: 1) Dividend over Cash Flow: mandatory annual dividend higher than half-year Cash Flow 2) Mark To Market adjustment regarding hedging instruments 3) Negative adjustments from retail exposure in Marseille 9

Portfolio July 2016 10

Portfolio Distinct portfolios, distinct behaviors Heritage 44% OF GROSS ASSET VALUE* Core 56% OF GROSS ASSET VALUE* Haussmann-style, stable and diversified New, refurbished Shorter lease term Longer lease term Lower yield 2.9% \ Higher vacancy 18% Higher yield 6.0% \ Lower vacancy 3% 130,000 sqm* 180,000 sqm* *Values as per 30 June 2016, areas including final areas of launched developments, excluding hotels and parking lots 11

Portfolio breakdown, value and rental income Portfolio Portfolio Value - EOP H1 2015 Portfolio Value - EOP H1 2016 Heritage 51% Core 49% Heritage 44% Core 56% Rental income H1 2015 Rental income H1 2016 81% Commercial Real Estate Hotels 11% Other 4% Resid 15% Retail 25% Offices 45% 84% Commercial Real Estate Hotels 12% Resid 13% Retail 17% Other 3% Offices 55% 12

Portfolio Core assets (56% Portfolio Value) Part I Core Assets 56% 13

Portfolio H1 Deliveries 45 M high yield investments delivered Banque de France - Lyon 3 Hotels Marseille & Bobigny Retail 2 500 m² 100% let to Nike & Maxi Bazar 1,5 M rental income 19 M investment Hotel total 331 rooms 100% let to B&B & AC Marriott 1,9 M rental income 26 M investment 14

Portfolio Adecco A structured project showcasing ANF Immobilier s know-how Adely Carré de Soie Lyon 13 100 m² let to Adecco 2,5 M rental income 34 M investment To be delivered in Q3 2016 Park View Tête d Or Lyon 9 000 m² let to Adecco until 2016 19 M initial investment Development of 22 236 m² 53 M additional investment 5,0 M potential rental income To be delivered by 2019-2021 15

Investor Portfolio Developer And finally Quai 8.2: Our Flagship Project in Bordeaux - Euratlantique 43 000 m² mixed use Launch by September 2016 Delivery by 2018-2019 Partnership with Vinci (50%) 97 M Investment 29 500 m² offices 2 100 m² retail and a 3 000 m² hotel 10 000 m² let to Orange and Allianz (signed in June 2016) hotel let to B&B Partnership 65% ANF Immobilier 35% Foncière des Régions 16

Portfolio Project launch Le Castel, 6 000 m² offices next to Euromed district Offices 6 000 m² to be delivered by 2019 Developer Eiffage Forward purchase agreement signed H1 2016 1,4 M potential rental income 20 M investment 17

Portfolio Heritage assets (44% Portfolio Value) Part II Heritage Assets 44% 18

Portfolio Adverse economic context for high street retail in France Vacancy rate evolution High street retail in France Average vacancy rate for high street retail in France has steadily increased by c.a. 1% per year since 2012 Stable average vacancy rate for major cities exceeding 500 000 inhabitants 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 7,2% 7,8% 8,5% 9,5% Marseille is the exception: average vacancy rate comprised between 10% and 15% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% The city of Marseille lacks the following factors: 0,0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 Imported Income Market Size Offer/Supply Captive Market Disposable Income Etude Procos 2016 19

Portfolio Combined with a local oversupply has led to a fair value adjustment Temporary oversupply Terrasses du Port 61 000 m² (2014) Centre Bourse 6 000 m² (2015) Docks 17 000 m² (2015) Voûtes 7 500 m² (2015) Prado 42 000 m² (2017) Has led to a challenging situation Estimated decrease of retailers turnover by 20%-30% within a year 1 450 m² lease contracts renegotiated in 2015-2016 300 m² vacated in 2016 and up to 700 m² more in 2017 by clothing retailers Adjustment of Estimated Rental Value of -6% between EOP 2015 and EOP H1 2016 Vieux-Port segment: -8% Middle segment: -6% Joliette segment: -3% Generating a decrease of Marseille retail market value by -7% (-15 M ) 20

Portfolio But many positive factors surround Rue de la République Terrasses du Port Docks Euromed Business district Expanding Rue de la République Voûtes MUCEM Museum Panier district Touristic area Centre Bourse Vieux-Port Touristic area Taking advantage of A newly established business district A booming tourism industry 21

Portfolio Our retail strategy for Marseille Redefine Marketability Differentiate our offer from new competitors (Terrasses du Port, Centre Bourse) Emphasize Rue de la République's main asset, a location benefiting Marseille s new identity Two distinct strategies for two distinct segments Vieux Port «Destination», tourism fitting Vieux-Port and Panier districts, leisure aimed at locals Joliette Services and catering aligned with the newly successful and established Euromed business district 22

Portfolio Promising first results Euromed Business district Expanding Copy Top 120 m² 130 m² King Jouet 600 m² Musée du Savon 800 m² First impacts in a few months 2 200 m² let 260 m² Vieux-Port Touristic area 23

Portfolio EPRA indicators - Portfolio E P R A 4.7% EPRA Net Initial Yield Topped-up Stable 9.1% EPRA Vacancy Stable Core assets: 2.9% 24

Portfolio Occupancy Rate & Net Initial Yield EPRA Net Initial Yield EPRA net initial yield December 2015 June 2016 Change % % Core Heritage Total Core Heritage Total Core Heritage Total Weight (%) 54% 46% 100% 56% 44% 100% 2% -2% 0% Net initial yield 6.1% 3.1% 4.7% 5.8% 2.9% 4.6% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% "Topped-up" net initial yield 6.1% 3.1% 4.7% 6.0% 2.9% 4.7% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% EPRA Occupancy Rate EPRA Occupancy Rate (%) December 2015 June 2016 Change % Core Heritage Total Core Heritage Total Core Heritage Total Offices 97% 91% 96% 97% 89% 96% 0% -2% 0% Retail - 86% 86% - 84% 87% - -2% 1% Hotels 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% Residential - 74% 75% - 74% 76% - 0% 1% Other - 82% 83% - 82% 80% - 0% -3% Total 97% 82% 91% 97% 82% 91% 0% 0% 0% 25

Finance July 2016 26

Finance EPRA indicators - Finance E P R A 7.9 M EPRA Earnings, Group Share Adjusted +15% 26.2 EPRA NNNAV per share -4%* *After 1.24 /share dividend 27

Top Line increased by +11% in H1 2016, +3% Group Share Finance 27,0-1.4 26,0-0.4 +0.6 0,0-25,0 +3.7 24,0 23,0-25,8 22,0 21,0 23,2 20,0 H1 2015 Offices Retail Hotels Residential Other H1 2016 Organic Growth Impact= Stable Acquisitions Impact = +11% Diversified and reliable pool of tenants Average lease term of 7.0 years +11% IFRS Rental Income +3% Group Share 28

Finance Consolidated P&L and EPRA Earnings H1 2016 H1 2015 (million ) EPRA IFRS EPRA IFRS Var. EPRA Gross rental income 25.8 25.8 23.2 23.2 11% Group Share 20.9 20.3 3% Net operating expenses - 2.5-3.3-1.6-2.4 Net rental income 23.3 22.5 21.6 20.8 8% margin 90% 87% 93% 89% Administrative expenses - 5.7-5.7-5.9-5.9 Recurring EBITDA 17.6 16.8 15.7 14.9 12% margin 68% 65% 67% 64% Financial expenses - 8.3-8.3-8.3-8.3 Amortization - - 0.5 - - 0.3 Change in Fair Value - - 17.4-13.0 Other items 0.2-3.3-0.2-0.2 Taxes 0.1 0.1-0.2-0.2 Minority interests - 2.8-3.1-2.0-10.5 Recurring Net Income, Group Share 6.8-15.6 5.0 8.4 37% margin 26% -61% 21% 36% Adjustment non recurring administrative expenses - - 0.6 - Adjustment financial expenses 1.1-1.4 - Recurring Net Income, Group Share adjusted 7.9-15.6 6.9 8.4 15% Recurring EBITDA, Group Share 13.3 17.6 Cash flow, Group Share 7.5 10.4 29

Consolidated Balance Sheet M Finance Other 28.4 Other 66.1 Cash 14.5 Debt 568.9 Including 68 M Current accounts Minority shareholders Assets 1,081.4 Shareholder's equity 489.3 Including: - 15,6 M Minority interests - 23,0 M Treasury shares - 28,4 M Hedging reserves Actif Assets Passif Liabilities LTV 45.5% 30

Gross Asset Value Finance Stable in spite of 22 M disposals 1 150 M 1 100 +19 +1-17 -22 Change in FV mainly due to: 1 050 Core Developments (notably New Way and hotels) +19 M 1 000 1,101 1,082 Disposals Lyon Heritage -22 M 950 900 Fair Value Marseille Heritage Retail -17 M 31

EPRA NNNAV Finance 29,0 /share EPRA NNNAV/ share 26.2 (after a payment of 1.24 /share dividend) 28,5 28,0 27,5-1.2 27,0 26,5 26,0 25,5 28,5 27,2-1.0 +0.2-0.2-0.5-0.0 +0.4 25,0 26,3 25,7 26,2 24,5 24,0 31/12/2015 Dividend (Cash) 31/12/2015 restated Fair Value Change Retail Marseille Fair Value Change Core Fair Value Change Core - Ilot 34 Fair Value Change Hedging Instruments Other Cash Flow 30/06/2016 Number of shares Jun 16: 19 009 271 32

Finance Stock Price Evolution - Liquidity Analysis Discount on NNNAV EPRA= 15% (21.88 /share - 30/06/2016) 27 25 23 21 Moyenne Volume des volumes sur 20 jours glissants Price (in ) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 19 17 3,000 2,000 1,000 15 0,000 31/12/2015 31/01/2016 29/02/2016 31/03/2016 30/04/2016 31/05/2016 30/06/2016 Daily volumes Total (u) Average 1 year 7 724 Average 6 months 6 654 Average 3 months 7 441 Average 1 month 7 799 33

Conclusion Financial structuring optimized Active Asset Management applied to challenging Heritage portfolio Core assets delivered at a fast pace Disposals secured Guidance confirmed +10% EPRA Earnings, Group Share Pipeline reloaded 34

investorrelations@anf-immobilier.com 35