Academy Independent School District Demographic Study Spring 2017 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for the Future
Economic Conditions Killeen-Temple Area (December 2016) 1.8% 2,500 new jobs National rate 1.5% 7,090 1,700 more sales than 2015 Job Growth 0.2% U.S. 4.5% Texas 4.6% Killeen MSA 4.3% Temple 3.5% Annual Home Sales Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy Unemployment Rate 2
Local Economic Update Everest Rehabilitation Hospital Building in Temple Temple is adding a new 36-bed, 38,000 inpatient rehab hospital in Temple The hospital will be located on Canyon Creek Drive near the Temple Medical & Education District and the VA complex The facility will specialize in rehabilitation for stroke, trauma, brain injury or complex orthopedic condition The facility will have the ability to expand to 72 beds Temple Industrial Park Gains New Tenant R+L Carriers Inc is building a $5 million freight terminal on 14.8 acres within the Temple Industrial Park The Industrial Park is located on Lucius McCelvey Dr in northwest Temple The facility will create 30 new jobs and should open by late spring 2017 The global freight shipping company is family owned and operated, and the Temple location will become its 11 th location in Texas 3
5,400,000 5,200,000 5,000,000 4,800,000 4,600,000 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 Texas Enrollment Trends Total State Enrollment 5,299,587 5,232,065 5,075,840 5,151,925 4,933,617 4,998,579 4,749,571 4,847,844 4,592,849 4,671,493 4,519,164 2015/16 State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,299,5587 Total Growth 67,522 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Enrollment Change 120,145 98,273 85,773 78,644 77,261 73,685 78,078 76,085 64,962 80,140 67,522 0 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 4
Region 12 Enrollment Trends Rank DISTRICT 2010/11 Enrollment 2015/16 Enrollment 5-YEAR CHANGE (10/11-15/16) 5-YEAR PCT Growth 1 Killeen ISD 40,231 43,250 3,019 7.5% 2 Belton ISD 9,278 10,863 1,585 17.1% 3 Midway ISD (McLennan) 7,199 7,806 607 8.4% 4 Mullin ISD 105 432 327 311.4% 5 Salado ISD 1,356 1,665 309 22.8% 6 Academy ISD 1,108 1,412 304 27.4% 7 China Spring ISD 2,339 2,606 267 11.4% 8 Groesbeck ISD 1,582 1,834 252 15.9% 9 Corsicana ISD 5,732 5,955 223 3.9% 10 Troy ISD 1,284 1,485 201 15.7% 5
Killeen-Temple MSA Housing Market Annual Sales 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Avg Sale Price Killeen-Temple MSA Home Sales vs Avg Price 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- Sales Average Price In 2016, the Killeen-Temple MSA had 7,090 home sales, a rise of more than 30% over 2015 Annual home sales have risen steadily since 2011 The average home sale price in the MSA in 2016 was $157,669 This is a slight rise from 2015, and is up more than $20,000 in the last 10 years 6
Academy ISD Annual Home Sales 400 350 300 Academy ISD Annual Home Sales, 2010-2016 250 200 236 199 219 188 150 100 50 0 159 177 101 109 117 137 140 58 64 62 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 New Home Sales Regular Resale New home sales have risen 140% since 2010 In 2010, Academy ISD had 159 total home sales, by 2016 the annual home sales have more than doubled to 328 7
Academy ISD Home Sale Distribution 2016 District Home Sales by Transaction Type Foreclosures 2.44% REO Sales 4.88% New Home Sales 42.68% Academy ISD 2016 Home Sales Regular Resale 50.00% 2016 Sale Type Average Price Average $/Sq. Ft. New Home $180,525 $97.5 Regular Resale $180,924 $98.1 Foreclosures N/A N/A REO Sale $102,972 $59.3 Source: Metrostudy/ Bell County Deed Records 8
Residential Activity Temple ISD Wyndham Hill 593 total lots 214 future lots 339 occupied 10 VDL 30 homes U/C Phase 6 with 70 lots delivering late summer 2017 Anticipate building 50 homes a year $160K - $200K Ph 5 homebuilding underway Future Ph 6 w/ 70 lots 9
Residential Activity Alta Vista 652 total lots 237 future lots 346 occupied 69 homes U/C 0 VDL remaining Future Phase 3 rezoned for single family development in Feb 2017 Delivering Phase 3 with 237 lots by the end of 2017 Anticipate building 100 homes a year DR Horton $130K - $200K Temple ISD Future Ph 3 w/ 237 lots 10
Residential Activity Temple ISD Hartrick Valley Estates Approx. 120 total lots Approx. 96 future lots 0 occupied 7 homes U/C 17 VDL First homes occupied summer 2017 Anticipate Phase 2 with 30 lots will start homebuilding by 2019 Anticipate building 10-12 homes a year 11
Residential Activity D Antoni s Crossing 55 total lots 50 lots within Academy ISD 33 occupied 17 VDL Custom home lots in gated community starting at $50K Temple ISD Highland Park Estates 30 total lots 4 homes U/C 26 VDL Lots starting at $55K with homes starting at $250K First homes occupied summer 2017 Likely building 5-8 homes a year Las Colinas 41 total lots 28 occupied 1 home U/C 12 VDL Custom homes $400K+ Building 1-3 homes a year 12
Residential Activity The Arbors of River Springs 43 delivered lots 37 occupied 6 VDL Building 2-3 homes a year Developer owns additional 13 acres north of development, approx. 25 future lots possible 13
Academy ISD Student Distribution 471 students, or 31% of students reside within the City of Little River-Academy Another 451 students reside within Temple city limits Academy ISD has 202 out of district students with half of those coming from Temple ISD 14
Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2012/13 7 39 78 80 88 77 73 98 89 93 99 93 100 87 75 1,176 2013/14 2 40 108 85 98 87 88 87 111 90 106 106 85 104 74 1,271 95 8.1% 2014/15 5 37 101 114 85 108 95 90 98 114 104 110 121 85 97 1,364 93 7.3% 2015/16 1 31 106 122 121 91 106 100 97 105 125 112 108 110 76 1,411 47 3.4% 2016/17 10 26 107 123 133 128 101 115 113 98 120 127 111 104 104 1,520 109 7.7% 2017/18 10 26 112 124 134 141 136 106 128 117 111 127 127 106 96 1,601 81 5.3% 2018/19 10 26 114 131 134 141 148 143 117 133 131 117 126 120 98 1,689 88 5.5% 2019/20 10 26 124 135 141 142 151 155 160 120 144 137 116 120 112 1,793 104 6.2% 2020/21 10 26 130 145 147 149 153 159 172 166 133 151 133 110 111 1,895 102 5.7% 2021/22 10 26 137 153 157 155 159 161 170 174 181 139 149 126 102 1,999 104 5.5% 2022/23 10 26 146 161 166 166 166 167 179 174 193 188 138 142 117 2,139 140 7.0% 2023/24 10 26 156 171 175 174 178 174 183 183 192 205 185 131 131 2,274 135 6.3% 2024/25 10 26 166 183 185 185 187 187 190 187 202 201 202 176 121 2,408 134 5.9% 2025/26 10 26 164 195 199 195 199 196 206 194 207 212 198 192 163 2,556 148 6.1% 2026/27 10 26 166 190 212 207 209 211 215 210 214 217 209 190 177 2,663 107 4.2% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Academy ISD will enroll nearly 1,800 students by 2019 5 year growth = 479 students 2021/22 enrollment = 1,999 students 10 year growth = 1,143 students 2026/27 enrollment = 2,663 students 15
Ten Year Forecast By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 ACADEMY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 381 399 406 415 436 458 483 509 538 570 594 604 ELEMENTARY TOTAL 381 399 406 415 436 458 483 509 538 570 594 604 Elementary Absolute Change 39 18 7 9 21 22 25 26 29 32 24 10 Elementary Percent Change 11.40% 4.72% 1.75% 2.22% 5.06% 5.05% 5.46% 5.38% 5.70% 5.95% 4.21% 1.68% ACADEMY INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL 297 344 383 432 448 461 475 499 526 559 590 627 INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTAL 297 344 383 432 448 461 475 499 526 559 590 627 Intermdiate Absolute Change 297 47 39 49 16 13 14 24 27 33 31 37 Intermediate Percent Change 15.82% 11.34% 12.79% 3.70% 2.90% 3.04% 5.05% 5.41% 6.27% 5.55% 6.27% ACADEMY JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL 327 331 356 381 424 471 525 546 558 579 607 639 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 327 331 356 381 424 471 525 546 558 579 607 639 Junior High Absolute Change -79 4 25 25 43 47 54 21 12 21 28 32 Junir High Percent Change -19.46% 1.22% 7.55% 7.02% 11.29% 11.08% 11.46% 4.00% 2.20% 3.76% 4.84% 5.27% ACADEMY HIGH SCHOOL 406 446 456 461 485 505 516 585 652 700 765 793 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 406 446 456 461 485 505 516 585 652 700 765 793 High School Absolute Change -7 40 10 5 24 20 11 69 67 48 65 28 High School Percent Change -1.69% 9.85% 2.24% 1.10% 5.21% 4.12% 2.18% 13.37% 11.45% 7.36% 9.29% 3.66% DISTRICT TOTALS 1,411 1,520 1,601 1,689 1,793 1,895 1,999 2,139 2,274 2,408 2,556 2,663 District Absolute Change 250 109 81 88 104 102 104 140 135 134 148 107 District Percent Change 21.53% 7.73% 5.33% 5.50% 6.16% 5.69% 5.49% 7.00% 6.31% 5.89% 6.15% 4.19% 16
Summary The Killeen-Temple MSA added 2,500 jobs in 2016. In 2016, the Killeen-Temple MSA had 7,090 home sales, a rise of more than 30% over 2015. In Academy ISD, new home sales have risen more than 140% since 2010. The district is expected to enroll more than 1,600 students this fall. Academy ISD will add 479 students in the next five years, for a fall 2021 enrollment of 1,999. The district will enroll more than 2,660 students by 2026. 17