Trends and Foresight. Report 10 Communities in the UK Prepared for Big Lottery Fund May 2016

Trends and Foresight Report 10 Communities in the UK Prepared for Big Lottery Fund May 2016

Introduction to the Report This is the 10 th in a series of reports produced by Trajectory to help BIG identify areas of emerging need across the UK. Each report provides either an overview of a set of topics or an in-depth analysis of specific issues. Previous reports are: Q1 2014 Overview of Need in the UK Q2 2014 Most in Need Q3 2014 Jobs & Skills/Poverty & Inequality Q4 2014 Childhood & Education Q1 2015 Poverty & Resilience Q2 2015 Community Cohesion Q3 2015 Ageing in the UK Q4 2015 Prevention in 2015 Q1 2016 Veterans Q2 2016 Communities These reports are all available to download on the BIG website: https://www.biglotteryfund.org.uk/research/research-round-up/foresight This report explores issues and emerging needs related to Communities in the UK

Communities in the UK This report analyses the trends shaping communities across the UK. Communities are central to many wider trends in society, and subject to change from demographic, social, economic and technological drivers. Communities are also typically very stable although our report in April 2015 found that after decades of stability, since the economic downturn community cohesion was starting to decline slightly While that report focussed on trends driving social need in communities, this report looks at what makes communities good and tries to understand what is driving changes in communities across the UK To do this, the report is split into 2 sections The first is an overview of trends, at a macro level, that are driving community changes across the UK The second explores a number of different communities across the UK, looking at specific local trends and understanding what makes communities good

Report Contents Trends Driving Community Cohesion Where and how we live Intergenerational issues Language and diversity Community assets and events Understanding communities Case Studies: Place profiles and local trends What makes a good community? Conclusions Areas of emerging need What can the Fund do to support communities? 4

Trends Driving Community cohesion WHERE AND HOW WE LIVE

How we live A number of social, demographic and economic trends are changing the way we live in the UK As our towns and cities grow, the population residing in urban areas is increasing, with the population living in more rural areas growing This can result in communities having a high concentration of either older or younger residents The UK is also becoming more diverse, with historical high levels of net migration set to continue in the medium-term future Additionally, as the UK continues to grow, the economic performance of different regions is driving change in communities The availability of jobs and the affordability of housing affect both the lives of people in those areas, and determine where people live

Economic prospects vary by region London is expected to see the greatest increase in GDP growth at 2.7%, whilst Wales and N. Ireland are to expect the lowest at 1.6% 1.8% UK Regional Growth 2014-19 (average annual GDP growth forecast) 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.5% Greater London 2.7% Source: ONS/Experian (2013 forecasts)

...and there are even bigger local disparities Average annual GDP growth forecast 2014-19 Local Authority Average growth rate Region Harrogate 2.5% Yorks & The Humber East Yorkshire 1.4% Yorks & The Humber Richmondshire 0.3% Yorks & The Humber Manchester 2.5% North West Blackpool 1.4% North West Copeland 0.6% North West Kens & Chelsea 3. Greater London Merton 3. Greater London Greenwich 2.3% Greater London Lewisham 2.1% Greater London Source: ONS/Experian

Changes to communities: More urban Since the 1970s, the population of the UK has been getting steadily more urban, with this trend set to increase over the next few decades 9 88% Forecast proportion of UK population residing in urban agglomerations 1950-2050 2050 88.65% 86% 84% 82% 8 78% 76% 74% 72% 2015 82.59% 2025 84.8 7 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: UN World Population Projections 2014

Changes to communities: More diverse Net migration to the UK has increased substantially since the 1990s, average around 200-300,000 per year. The UN s population forecasts do not anticipate this to reverse over the next decade, but instead to continue at this steady rate driving both population growth and greater diversity Net number of migrants to the UK (000s) 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0-200 - 400-600 Source: UN World Population Projections 2014

Changes to communities: More digital Technology provision and access also changes the way communities are able to interact the interactions themselves are not new, but the method of doing so is Source: Ofcom; 2014 Infrastructure Report

Trends Driving Community cohesion INTERGENERATIONAL ISSUES

Demographic Shifts 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 % of UK adult (18+) in each generational grouping; 1971-2025 Pre War (70+) Baby Boomer (51-69) Gen X (35-50) 2016 Gen Y (20-34) Gen Z (19-0) We are in a period of Generational Equipoise, with four large, similarly sized generational cohorts coexisting and Gen Z on it s way. This equipoise, at national level means there is the potential for multiple cohorts to place large demands on services. In a period of constrained public spending, there are likely to be some areas of social need that emerge as a result of money being spent elsewhere, creating need as a result of intergenerational conflict. However, at local community level there are sharp disparities from place to place Source: ONS/Trajectory

Intergenerational issues Areas of concern Rapid rise in government debt Burden of pensions and ageing healthcare on finances Poor youth-adult employment ration Poor youth-adult democratic ratio Low expenditure on Research and Development Positives High investment in education High participation in tertiary education At a national level, the UK s population trends mean that there are a number of intergenerational issues The Intergenerational Foundation, in its 2015 European Index, found a number of areas where the UK is struggling, including a squeeze of public finances, the high cost of pensions and healthcare, and low levels of participation in elections and the workforce by younger people At local level, as the next few slides show, populations can be sharply polarised. Where this polarisation occurs, intergenerational issues can arise within communities European Intergenerational Fairness Index, IF, 2015

Under-occupation 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 31% 5 Percentage of households living in respective levels of occupation by age of HRP 13% 17% 39% 4 24% 38% 33% 6% 5% 5% 35% 36% 26% 51% 53% 31% 32% 16% 15% 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over Under-occupied One above standard At standard Over-crowded The way in which an abundance of people from one age cohort can negatively affect others can be illustrated by the effect of age on the underoccupation of housing; as downsizing of property stagnates, older people are increasingly unlikely to vacate oversized homes, driving prices up for younger people looking to get on the housing ladder, or to rent. Source: English Housing Survey, 2012-2013

Aged 0-17; Highest Proportions Local Authority Highest % Aged 0-17 At 3, Barking and Dagenham has the highest proportion of people aged between 0 and 17, followed by Slough with 28%. With almost a third of all residents aged below 18 years old in Barking and Dagenham, a particular set of issues will be encountered. Barking and Dagenham will likely face greater pressure on schools and health services particularly paediatric ones and with such a large proportion below working age there is likely to be an impact on dependency ratio, albeit one which may be balanced out by a small base of retirees in many areas with youthful populations. Barking and Dagenham 3 Slough 28% Bradford 26% Blackburn with Darwen 26% Luton 26% Mid Ulster 26% Birmingham 26% Newry, Mourne and Down 25% Newham 25% Redbridge 25% Enfield 25% Oldham 25% Milton Keynes 25% Derry and Strabane 25% Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon 25% Elmbridge 25% Croydon 25% Thurrock 25% Sandwell 25% Fermanagh and Omagh 24%

Aged 18-34; Highest Proportions Local Authority Highest % Aged 18-34 Tower Hamlets 41% The areas with the highest proportion of those aged between 18-34 are dominated by cities with very high numbers of either students, young professionals, or both. These authorities, and the 18-34 cohort in particular, are the most highly concentrated relative to their respective counterparts. The university towns of Oxford and Cambridge, and the graduate hotspots in London of Tower Hamlets, Islington and Lambeth, comprised of between 37-41% 18 to 34s. The Intergenerational Foundation highlights democratic and workforce participation as key areas of inequality between younger and older cohorts and so it is important to focus efforts to improve this in local authorities with high concentrations of younger people Oxford 39% Islington 39% Cambridge 39% Manchester 37% Lambeth 37% Wandsworth 36% Hackney 36% Nottingham 36% Southwark 35% Newham 35% Camden 34% Southampton 34% Hammersmith and Fulham 34% Norwich 33% Exeter 33% Newcastle upon Tyne 33% Lincoln 33% Bristol, City of 32% Westminster 32%

Aged 55-74; Highest Proportions Local Authority Highest % Aged 55-74 West Somerset 32% There are a number of local authorities with very high concentrations of older people, especially those in the South and South West. In these areas, the population ratio of the local community is heavily weighted towards older people those either around retirement age or over it. Services, events and other community functions for these populations are in high demand, meaning that it is important that communities provide them, without failing to provide for younger populations as well. North Norfolk 32% East Lindsey 31% South Hams 3 Rother 3 West Dorset 3 Torridge 3 East Dorset 29% West Devon 29% South Lakeland 29% Derbyshire Dales 29% Ryedale 29% Tendring 29% East Devon 29% Purbeck 28% Powys 28% Malvern Hills 28% Argyll and Bute 28% Isles of Scilly 28% Dorset 28%

Multispeed Recovery drives internal migration The map illustrates the flow of internal migration in the UK: people moving from one part of the country to another A great deal of the inflow to London from the North is driven by younger people moving south to find jobs The outflow, to the South and East coasts is driven by older people moving out of the increasingly busy capital This helps drives some of the agepolarised communities the previous slides have shown, with high concentrations of younger people in urban areas and higher numbers of older people in rural southern areas Source: Parliamentary Briefing Paper; Regional and Local Economic Growth Forecasts

Opportunities for young people The chart below illustrations which towns and cities in the UK offer the best opportunities for young people, based on the availability of jobs and the affordability of housing. Although currently internal migration trends see many younger people move south (mainly to London), if they can be encouraged to stay in certain parts of the North, there are opportunities in those communities for them to prosper Source: Intergenerational Foundation, Should Young People look North? 2015

Trends Driving Community cohesion LANGUAGE

Language in England and Wales As shown in the adjacent chart, England and Wales are dominated by English speakers, with 92% of the population speaking English or Welsh if in wales. England and Wales, most reported languages; UK Census 2011 English (English or Welsh if in Wales) Other Polish Panjabi Of the other most widely spoken languages in the country, Polish and Panjabi were the most commonly spoken, with the remaining 6% comprised of a vast array of different language originating all over the world. 6% As the chart shows, for the vast majority of communities in the UK, language differences will not be a barrier in fostering community cohesion 92% 1% 1% Source: ONS/UK Census, 2011

Language by region Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Cannot speak English Cannot speak English well Can speak English well Can speak English very well Main language is English While English is spoken by 92% of people in England and Wales, proficiency changes drastically in London. English is the main language for just 74% of those in Inner London and 8 in Outer London, with 5% unable to speak English well or at all in Inner London and 4% in Outer London. Source: ONS; Language in England and Wales, 2011

Language and London This stark geographical contrast can be observed in the adjacent map, while we can also see large differences across London itself. English not spoken well and not at all by local or unitary authority, 2011; England and Wales In the vast majority of the country, fewer than 1% of populations cannot speak English well or at all. In London, particularly the North East and North West, incidence of poor, or no English language skills is far higher, with over 5% speaking the language poorly or not at all. However, this issue is not just confined to the capital communities in the East Midlands, North West and East of England also have high concentrations of people unable to speak English well or at all. Source: ONS; Language in England and Wales, 2011

Trends Driving Community cohesion EVENTS AND COMMUNITY ASSETS

Importance of community assets Community assets, such as sports facilities, green spaces and libraries are essential pieces of community infrastructure In addition to public services and institutions, community assets also extends to all property or land owned by local authorities However, constrained local authority budgets puts some local assets at risk either from partial or complete closure or sale In recent years there have been calls for more community ownership of a variety of different assets such as energy supply, sports centres or parks, although as the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has pointed out, this can be a difficult process that needs support and careful management Whether it's managing electricity generation, running a sports centre or owning a park, where it works well communities can reap a host of benefits ranging from improved services, to a greater sense of community identity, to increased income [but] an asset can become a liability if it s badly managed or was inappropriate for community ownership in the first place. -- Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2012 The combined impact of the recession and local government funding cuts has made publicly owned land and property assets an increasingly important tool for local authorities to support economic growth, as well as to generate revenue funding. -- Centre for Cities, 2015

Library Usage 6 Libraries can be essential community assets, serving an educational and social role for many. However, according to the Taking Part Survey, across England use of public libraries has declined significantly over the past decade in every region. In, London for example, last year 4 visited a public library. While this is a slight improvement on the record low of 38% in 2009-10, it is a significant decrease on the first recorded year, 2005-6, when 53% visited. Proportion who have visited a public library in the last year 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 5 4 3 2 1 North East North West Yorkshire and Humberside East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West Source: Taking Part Survey, 2016 Quarter 2 Statistical Release

Sport Facilities However, unlike library visits, in recent years participation in sport has remained at a consistent level, including growing in some areas. Different cohorts of people are likely to have different needs from sports facilities, and so the third sector should support individual communities in making sure the right facilities are available for them Participation in Sport (at least once a week); by year 4 2005/2006 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% North East North West Yorkshire and Humber East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West Source: Sport England; Sport England Local Sport Profile Tool, 2014

Sport Facilities In every part of England the most common type of sports facility ownership is educational, typically followed by local authority, As the structure of education provision changes, it will be important for local authorities and communities to ensure wider access to facilities is maintained Ownership types of sporting facilities by region 6 Commercial Education Local Authority Others 5 4 48% 43% 4 41% 47% 43% 39% 45% 43% 3 2 1 12% 3 8% 28% 28% 29% 26% 26% 24% 23% 2 18% 15% 14% 14% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 27% 15% 15% 13% 23% 18% North East North West Yorkshire and Humber East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West Source: Sport England; Sport England Local Sport Profile Tool, 2014

CASE STUDIES

Case Studies: Understanding what makes a community As the report so far has highlighted, social need varies greatly by local area. One community s characteristics may be very different from another s, and as such each community will need support that recognises its individual situation In this section, we aim to understand more about these individual characteristics by selecting a number of different local areas across the UK and gathering data on them to assess their community and identify any evidence of social need In doing so, we aim to understand more about what makes a good community and how the Fund can support and empower communities to become better The communities selected are designed to encompass a broad range of different community types, representing all 4 UK nations and a mixture of urban and rural locations The local authorities selected have also been cross-referenced with the Index of Multiple Deprivation, to understand how communities vary with different levels and drivers of social need

Tower Hamlets The Current Context Tower Hamlets is currently ranked 10 th out of 326 local authorities in England on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. Just 66% of the borough have English as their main language, compared to the UK average of 96%. Demographically the borough is very young over 6 are aged under 34, with 29% of the population aged between 25-34 alone. Arts & Culture There are 6 museums, galleries and libraries in Tower Hamlets; the Island History Trust, Museum of London Docklands, Ragged School Museum, as well as the Whitechapel Art Gallery and The Women s Library Great Britain s leading resource on women and the women s movement. Parks & Leisure Tower Hamlets has over one hundred parks and open spaces, including Victoria Park, Mile End Park, and numerous small gardens and squares. The Olympic Park is also partly situated in the borough, and Mudchute Park is host to the largest urban farm in Europe. Evidence of Social Need There is significant evidence of social need in Tower Hamlets. While the number of pupils per secondary school is marginally below the average for England, Tower Hamlets has almost 100 more primary students per primary school than the rest of the England. If these problems are not addressed, as the young population grows we will see the same problem afflict secondary schools. While GVA (Gross Value Added) is artificially inflated by the location of the Capital s financial services within the borough, there are real problems in the borough. Crime far surpasses the level in the rest of England and Wales, while the claimant count is 0.4% higher than in the rest of the UK. Further, we see that well-being is consistently lower than in the rest of the country particularly with regards to happiness and anxiety.

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 10 out of 326 in England Tower Hamlets Demographic Composition; Age UK Tower Hamlets 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; Tower Hamlets Main language is English Can speak English very well 3% 16% 66% 96% State Funded Secondary 942 901 Can speak English well Cannot speak English well Cannot speak English 3% 11% 1% 6% 2% England Tower Hamlets State Funded Primary 269 366 England Tower Hamlets 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 10 out of 326 in England Tower Hamlets % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high Tower Hamlets England UK 10 78% 8 8 81% 83% 83% 7 74% 74% 5 22% 19% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people Gross Value Added (GVA), per head England & Wales 657 120,000 Tower Hamlets UK Tower Hamlets 1013 100,000 0 500 1000 1500 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% Tower Hamlets 2.3% 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15; *Data for Life Satisfaction and Worthwhile is for Inner London

Pendle The Current Context Pendle is currently ranked 38 th out of 326 local authorities in England on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. Pendle is very close to the England average for English language proficiency, with English serving as the main language for 92% of its inhabitants. Pendle s age demographic is also very much in line with the rest of the UK, though with slightly more children and older people there is likely to be increased dependency on those in work and greater pressure on services in the future. Arts & Culture There are several significant heritage centres in Pendle. Pendle Heritage Centre, Earby s Lead Mining Museum, Bancroft Mill and the British in India Museum all offer the opportunity to better understand the history of the area, while a number of pieces related to the area notably photographs and artworks are hosted in both the Pendle Heritage Centre and the Keith Melling Gallery. Parks & Leisure Colne is the largest town in Pendle, and has a variety of sports clubs as well as Pendle Leisure Centre, a facility with two swimming pools, a fitness centre, gymnasium, sports hall and sauna. The centre is run by Pendle Leisure Trust which manages several other centres in the authority. Evidence of Social Need There is slight evidence of social deprivation in Pendle, though not nearly to the same extent as in Tower Hamlets. Despite a population with more children than the UK average the ratio of pupils to schools is much lower than the UK average, and while life satisfaction and anxiety are marginally worse than in the rest of the country, happiness and feeling things are worthwhile is higher. Evidence for deprivation comes in the form of well below average GVA per capita and a claimant count 0.3% higher than in the rest of the UK.

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 38 out of 326 in England Pendle Demographic Composition; Age UK Pendle 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; Lancashire* Main language is English Can speak English very well 3% 2% 96% 92% State Funded Secondary 777 942 Can speak English well Cannot speak English well Cannot speak English 3% 3% 1% 3% 1% England Pendle State Funded Primary 200 269 England Pendle 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 38 out of 326 in England Pendle % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high Pendle England UK 10 78% 8 8 85% 83% 83% 75% 74% 74% 5 2 19% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people Gross Value Added (GVA), per head England & Wales 657 30,000 Lancashire UK Pendle 578 25,000 0 500 1000 1500 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Pendle 2.2% 0 2% 4% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15; *Data for Pendle is for Lancashire

Middlesbrough The Current Context Middlesbrough is currently ranked 6 th out of 326 local authorities in England on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. Middlesbrough s profile in terms of language proficiency is almost identical to that of the UK English average, with 95% of inhabitants possessing English as their main language and a negligible proportion unable to speak the language at all. The population is much younger than in the rest of the UK, which places added pressure on services for young people, particularly education. Arts & Culture Middlesbrough s most well-known cultural offer is the Middlesbrough Institute of Modern Art which opened in 2007 and features work by Frank Auerbach and Tracey Emin. In addition there are several other heritage centres including the Dorman Memorial Musuem, the Captain Cook Birthplace and the Transporter Bridge Visitor Centre. Parks & Leisure Middlesbrough s two major recreational park spaces are Albert Park and Stewart Park. Both sites have undergone significant restoration in recent years; Albert Park was restored from 2001 to 2004 and Stewart Park more recently, in 2011. In addition, Middlesbrough FC have recently returned to the Premier League; research by Cardiff University showed that this accomplishment boosted the economy of Swansea by over 58 million, creating or protecting 400 jobs. Evidence of Social Need Middlesbrough is among the most deprived areas in the UK; schools are under far more pressure than in the rest of England, crime is significantly higher than in the rest of the country and well-being falls well below the national average. GVA per capita is more than 6,000 lower than in the rest of the UK and the claimant count as a percentage of the population is more than double that in the rest of the country; 4.8% in Middlesbrough compared to 1.9% of the UK.

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 6 out of 326 in England Middlesbrough Demographic Composition; Age UK Middlesbrough 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; Middlesbrough Main language is English Can speak English very well 3% 2% 96% 95% State Funded Secondary 942 1088 Can speak English well Cannot speak English well Cannot speak English 3% 2% 1% 1% England Middlesbrough State Funded Primary 269 364 England Middlesbrough 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 6 out of 326 in England Middlesbrough % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high Middlesbrough England UK 10 76% 8 8 8 83% 83% 71% 74% 74% 5 22% 19% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people Gross Value Added (GVA), per head England & Wales 657 30,000 Tees Valley and Durham UK Middlesbrough 1107 25,000 0 500 1000 1500 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Middlesbrough 4.8% 0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15

Surrey Heath The Current Context Surrey Heath is currently ranked 318 th out of 326 local authorities in England on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. English proficiency in Surrey Heath reflects language trends more widely in the UK, however this is where the similarities end. The age demographic of Surrey Heath is a concern, with more children, and more older people than in the UK average, while there are far fewer 18-34s. Arts & Culture Much of the heritage of the area is tied up in the heath which gives the area its name. Surrey Heath Archaeology & Heritage Trust is based in Bagshot and hosts a library with over 2000 books on the history and archaeology of the area. The heritage trust also runs monthly Young Archaeologists Club. In addition, the Surrey Heath Heritage Gallery is based in Camberley and features exhibititions of local history and photography. Parks & Leisure Located in an affluent area within the greenbelt, open space isn t hard to come by in Surrey Heath. According to Sport England there are 8 golf courses, 82 grass pitches, 9 fitness suites and 19 sports halls in the local authority comparing very favourably with larger nearby authorities. Evidence of Social Need There is little evidence of social need in Surrey Heath. Life satisfaction, perception of things being worthwhile, and happiness are all above the national averages, though it must be pointed out that anxiety is equal to that of Middlesbrough and Tower Hamlets. Crime is much lower than the average for England and Wales, as is the claimant count, which at 0.4% is a full 1.5% lower than the national average and Surrey Heath s GVA per capita also far exceeds the UK average. One issue in the area is in pressure on schooling, with a pupil to school ratio above the national average for both primary and secondary schools.

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 318 out of 326 in England Surrey Heath Demographic Composition; Age UK Surrey Heath 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; Surrey* Main language is English Can speak English very well 3% 3% 96% 95% State Funded Secondary 942 1088 Can speak English well Cannot speak English well Cannot speak English 3% 2% 1% 1% England Surrey Heath State Funded Primary 269 290 England Surrey 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 318 out of 326 in England Surrey Heath % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high Surrey Heath England UK 10 83% 8 8 84% 83% 83% 75% 74% 74% 5 22% 19% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people England & Wales 657 Surrey Heath 426 0 500 1000 1500 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% Surrey Heath 0.4% 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Gross Value Added (GVA), per head West Surrey UK 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15; *Data for Surrey Heath is for Surrey

Cambridge The Current Context Cambridge is currently ranked 227 th out of 326 local authorities in England on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. Both the language and age profile of Cambridge are reasonably unusual due to the enormous number of students in the city studying at Cambridge or University of East Anglia. This is likely one reason for the relatively low number of people with English as a main language 83% and the high proportion of people for whom English is not a main language but remains one spoken well or very well. 18-24s make up 2 of the authority s population, more than double the UK average, and there are far fewer children and old people, reducing pressure on many services. Arts & Culture There are several museums in Cambridge, run both independently and by Cambridge University. The largest is the Fitzwilliam Museum run by the University, while there is also the Museum of Cambridge, a social history museum. Parks & Leisure Cambridge has an enormous number of sports and leisure facilities again due to the presence of the universities. There are 113 grass pitches and 25 fitness suites, as well as a vast number of sports halls, swimming pools and artificial surfaces. Evidence of Social Need When it comes to social need there are two main issues facing Cambridge. Despite having fewer children than the UK average, Cambridge has a higher ratio of pupils to secondary schools than the average for England, although the situation with primary schools is much better; in any case these differences are slight, but if not monitored could become worse. The benefit claimant count in Cambridge is very low at just 0.8%, GVA per capita is higher than the UK average and well-being is largely much better than in the rest of the UK. Crime is a significant issue however.

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 227 out of 326 in England Cambridge Demographic Composition; Age UK Cambridge 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; Cambridgeshire* Main language is English Can speak English very well 3% 1 96% 83% State Funded Secondary 942 997 Can speak English well Cannot speak English well Cannot speak English 3% 6% 1% 1% England Cambridge State Funded Primary 269 237 England Cambridgeshire 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 227 out of 326 in England Cambridge % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high Cambridgeshire England UK 10 8 8 8 82% 83% 83% 78% 74% 74% 5 18% 19% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people Gross Value Added (GVA), per head England & Wales 657 30,000 Cambridgeshire CC UK Cambridge 863 25,000 0 500 1000 1500 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% Cambridge 0.8% 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15; *Data for Cambridge is for Cambridgeshire, Life Satisfaction and Worthwhile data is from 2012/2013

Exeter The Current Context Exeter is currently ranked 160 th out of 326 local authorities in England on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. Language proficiency in Exeter is very similar to that of the UK average; 94% of the population speaks English as their main. The age composition of Exeter is similar to that of Cambridge, with Exeter University and the 20,000 students that attend it seeing the proportion of the population aged 18-24 dwarf all other age cohorts. Arts & Culture Exeter is home to the Royal Albert Memorial Museum, awarded the National Art Fund Prize UK Museum of the Year 2012, as well as the Spacex art gallery, exhibiting contemporary art and promoting artist-led projects, events and research. Parks & Leisure Though not as well equipped as Cambridge, Exeter is well served with regards to sporting facilities, with 75 grass pitches, 30 sports halls, and 18 swimming pools. Rougemount Gardens in the city centre is an open space with Grade II listed status in the National Register of Historic Parks and Gardens. Evidence of Social Need There is relatively little evidence of social need in Exeter; well-being is of a level consistently higher than the UK average, claimant count as a percentage of population is well below the UK average at 0.9% and while crime is close to the UK average it remains marginally lower. Secondary schools represent the most pressing issue; while similar to Cambridge in having a below average number of children in the authority, the ratio of pupils to secondary schools is higher than the national average. Similarly, while not drastically different, the GVA of Devon County Council encompassing Exeter in this measure is below that of the rest of the UK though as we have seen with Tower Hamlets, this does not make or break a good community.

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 160 out of 326 in England Exeter Demographic Composition; Age UK Exeter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; Devon* Main language is English Can speak English very well 3% 3% 96% 94% State Funded Secondary 942 986 Can speak English well Cannot speak English well Cannot speak English 3% 3% 1% 1% England Exeter State Funded Primary 178 269 England Devon 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 160 out of 326 in England Exeter % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high Exeter England UK 10 85% 8 8 83% 83% 83% 78% 74% 74% 5 19% 19% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people Gross Value Added (GVA), per head England & Wales 657 30,000 Devon CC UK Exeter 632 25,000 0 500 1000 1500 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Exeter 0.9% 0 2% 4% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15; *Data for Exeter is for Devon

East Riding of Yorkshire The Current Context East Riding of Yorkshire is currently ranked 195 th out of 326 local authorities in England on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. Language proficiency in East Riding of Yorkshire exceeds that of the English average; 98% of the population speak English as their main language while the remaining 2% speak it well or very well. Demographically, East Riding of Yorkshire has a very old population, with an especially small proportion of 18-24s and 25-34s relative to the rest of the nation. The high proportion of those aged over the age of 65 will put significant pressure on services, while the dependency ratio is likely to rise. Arts & Culture East Riding of Yorkshire is generally rural, with Hull considerably larger than any of the other conurbations in the authority. In 2013 the city was chosen as the 2017 UK City of Culture, and the museum quarter hosts Wilberforce House, the Arctic Corsair, the Hull and East Riding Museum and the Streetlife Museum of Transport. Hull also has two theatres, Hull New Theatre and The Hull Truck theatre. Parks & Leisure Hull has several large parks and green spaces, including East Park, Pearson Park, Pickering Park, Peter Pan Park and West Park which hosts Hull s KC Stadium. Evidence of Social Need Despite having a GVA per capita over 4,000 lower than that of the UK, East Riding of Yorkshire shows little other signs of serious deprivation. Life Satisfaction is marginally lower than the UK average however anxiety is lower. Further, crime is lower in East Riding than the average for England and Wales and the claimant count as a percentage of the population is 0.5% lower than the UK average. Much like Cambridge and Exeter, secondary schools remain an issue, with a much higher ratio of students to schools than in the rest of the UK.

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 195 out of 326 in England Demographic Composition; Age East Riding of Yorkshire UK East Riding 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; East Riding of Yorkshire Main language is English Can speak English very well Can speak English well Cannot speak English well Cannot speak English 3% 1% 3% 1% 1% England 96% 98% East Riding of Yorkshire State Funded Secondary State Funded Primary 208 269 942 1046 England East Riding of Yorkshire 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 195 out of 326 in England East Riding of Yorkshire % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high East Riding of Yorkshire England UK 10 79% 8 8 83% 83% 83% 74% 74% 74% 5 18% 19% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people England & Wales 657 East Riding of Yorkshire 392 0 500 1000 1500 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Gross Value Added (GVA), per head East Riding of Yorkshire UK East Riding of Yorkshire 1.4% 0 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15; *Data for Life Satisfaction and Worthwhile is for Yorkshire and Humber

Flintshire, Wales The Current Context Flintshire is currently ranked 2 th out of 24 local authorities in Wales on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. Flintshire surpasses the level of English (or in this instance, also Welsh) found in the rest of Wales, with 98% of the population possessing English or Welsh as a main language, compared to 97% in the rest of Wales. Demographically there is cause for concern in Flintshire; the population is much older than that of the UK, and this will have implications on the dependency ratio and on service provision. Arts & Culture Many of the cultural attractions in Flintshire are bound in the history of the area. St Winefride s Well, one of the Seven Wonders of Wales lays claim to being the oldest continually visited pilgrimage site in Great Britain and has grade I listing status, while Basingwerk Cistercian Abbey and Greenfield Valley Heritage Park offer a mix of mills and reservoirs charting the area s past. Parks & Leisure Flintshire is very rural and as such, open spaces are not hard to find. With regard to leisure, the authority is well served by a variety of leisure services, with sports centres in Mold, Hope, Holywell and Connah s Quay, as well as swimming pools, bowling greens, soft plays and an ice rink. Evidence of Social Need Flintshire is very similar to East Riding of Yorkshire with regards to social need. While Flintshire and Wrexham s GVA per capita is moderately lower than that of the UK average, there is much to be positive about. Claimant count as a percentage of population remains marginally lower than the UK average, and crime is lower. Further, life satisfaction is 3% higher than in the rest of Wales and anxiety is 3% lower. One slight issue in Flintshire though this comparison is likely negative due to the rurality of much of Wales is schooling, with pressure schools in Flintshire far higher than in the rest of Wales. By contrast, however, this ratio of students to schools is far, far lower than the UK average

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 2 out of 24 in Wales Flintshire, Wales Demographic Composition; Age UK Flintshire 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; Flintshire Main language is English Can speak English very well 1% 1% 97% 98% State Funded Secondary 193 798 Can speak English well Cannot speak English well Cannot speak English 1% 1% 1% 1% Wales Flintshire State Funded Primary 49 204 Wales Flintshire 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 2 out of 24 in Wales Flintshire, Wales % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high Flintshire Wales UK 10 81% 78% 8 82% 83% 74% 74% 74% 5 18% 21% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people Gross Value Added (GVA), per head England & Wales 657 30,000 Flintshire and Wrexham UK Flintshire 472 25,000 0 500 1000 1500 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Flintshire 1.6% 0 2% 4% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15; *Data for Worthwhile unavailable in Flintshire

Belfast The Current Context Belfast is currently ranked 1 st out of 26 local authorities in Northern Ireland on the Index of Multiple Deprivation measuring income, employment, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training, barriers to housing and services, crime and living environment. English proficiency is marginally lower in Belfast than it is in the rest of Northern Ireland. 95% of people living in Belfast speak English as their main language compared to the Northern Ireland average of 98%, though in both instances a negligible proportion are unable to speak English. Belfast s population is much younger than the UK average with a particularly high concentration of 18-24s relative to the UK average. Arts & Culture Belfast is both the capital, and the largest city in Northern Ireland, and as such there is a high concentration of arts and cultural provision. Féile an Phobail or The Community s Festival is a community arts organisation known for its August festival, and it remains one of the biggest community festivals in Europe. In addition, The Grand Opera house has been fully restored following the Troubles and the Waterfront Hall is an icon of the modern city. Parks & Leisure Belfast has over 40 public parks maintained by The Forest of Belfast, a partnership between government and local groups which conserves the cities parks. Evidence of Social Need There is much evidence of social need in Belfast. Despite having a GVA per capita far greater than that of the UK average we can see that crime is a serious issue in Belfast with 978 crimes per 10,000 people compared to 571 crimes per 10,000 people in the rest of Northern Ireland. In addition, the claimant count as a percentage of the population is higher in only one of our other case studies Middlesbrough at 4.3%. Well-being research has not been carried out as extensively as in England but we can see that anxiety is 5% higher than in the rest of Northern Ireland, with happiness lower.

Multiple Deprivation Ranking 1 out of 26 in Northern Ireland Belfast Demographic Composition; Age UK Belfast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Proficiency in English; Usual residents aged three and over whose main language is not English Pupils per type of school; Belfast Main language is English Can speak English very well 1% 2% 97% 95% State Funded Secondary 657 Can speak English well 1% 2% Northern Ireland Belfast Cannot speak English well 1% 1% State Funded Primary 288 Cannot speak English 5 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Multiple Deprivation Ranking 1 out of 26 in Northern Ireland Belfast % who perceive life satisfaction, sense of things being worthwhile, happiness and anxiety as high or very high Belfast Northern Ireland UK 10 84% 8 84% 83% 73% 79% 74% 5 23% 18% 19% Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness Anxiety Crimes per 10,000 people Northern Ireland 571 Belfast 978 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Claimant Count as a % of Population UK 1.9% Belfast 4.3% 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Gross Value Added (GVA), per head Belfast UK 2% 4% Source: ONS Personal Well-being Estimates 2014/15; *Data for Life Satisfaction and Worthwhile unavailable in Belfast

Glasgow The Current Context Scotland measures multiple deprivation slightly differently to the rest of the UK, with local authorities containing multiple data zones, which are individually ranked. Overall, Glasgow is among the most deprived areas, with the 5 of the 10 most deprived zones in Glasgow. The way in which English language proficiency is measured in Scotland is slightly different to the rest of the UK. 97% of those living in Glasgow can speak English well or very well compared to 99% in the rest of Scotland. The age demographic of Glasgow is concentrated in the working population; there are both less children and less older people than in the UK average, which should reduce pressure on many services. Arts & Culture Glasgow has numerous museums, most notably the Riverside Museum which was awarded the European Museum of the Year Award in 2013, among others including the Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum, The Gallery of Modern Art, and the Scottish Football Museum while there are also a number of libraries, theatres, and concert halls in the city Parks & Leisure Glasgow has over 100 parks, gardens, recreational areas, and green spaces, with a vast number of these managed by Glasgow City Council. Kelvingrove park is the pick of the bunch, bordering the Kelvingrove Museum and Art Gallery the park includes a skatepark, and a bowling green. Evidence of Social Need There is strong evidence of social need in Glasgow. Similarly to Belfast, while we see that GVA per capita is higher in Glasgow than the UK Average, claimant count as a percentage of the population is far higher than the rest of the UK. In addition, there is more than three times the amount of crime in Glasgow than in the rest of Scotland. Well-being is considerably lower in Glasgow, particularly when we look at happiness; just 64% of those in Glasgow report being happy, compared to 74% in the rest of the country.