Forecast of Aviation Demand

4 Forecast of Aviation Demand Introduction The development of aviation activity projections for the airports included in Ohio s aviation system is a key step in assessing the need for and phasing of future development requirements. Projections are useful to evaluate the future capacity of the system as well as to plan for future airside and landside facilities. For this analysis, projections were developed for a 20 year period; 2012 served as the base year since this was the most recent period for which a complete calendar year of historic data was available. The assumptions and methodologies used to prepare aviation demand projections for the airports included in the Ohio Airports Focus Study are discussed in the following sections: General Approach to Forecasting Commercial Service Activity Projections Annual Passenger Enplanements Annual Airline Operations Air Cargo Tonnage General Aviation Activity Projections Based Aircraft Projections Operational Fleet Mix General Aviation Operations Projections Local/Itinerant Operations Summary General Approach to Forecasting The general approach used to develop aviation forecasts for Ohio's airport system was to identify relationships between Ohio airport activity levels, U.S. aviation activity metrics prepared by the FAA, and Ohio specific population trends. Actual trends in demand, experienced on a statewide basis and at individual system airports, were also considered. Current and historic airport specific data presented in this chapter were derived from FAA sources such as 5010 Forms and the Terminal Area Forecast, airport sponsors, and the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT). Projections presented in this chapter are segregated into commercial service and general aviation sections. While the primary intent of the Ohio Airports Focus Study is to target general aviation airports and their activity, an overview of projected commercial service activity is provided in this chapter for context. Commercial service activity projections focus on enplanements (passengers departing at an airport) and airline operations (arrivals and take offs). Enplanement forecasts were based on existing projections as presented in the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF). Since the Ohio Airports Focus Study had the benefit of collecting up to date 2012 enplanement estimates for each airport, the FAA growth rates presented in the TAF were applied to the current operational estimate. Commercial airline operations projections were taken directly from the FAA TAF. Air cargo activity is also derived from current FAA projections. General aviation activity, measured in terms of total annual aircraft operations (takeoffs and landings), is sometimes related to the number of aircraft based at a particular airport. Therefore, preparation of based aircraft projections is an important element in the Ohio Airports Focus Study. OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 1

For this study, based aircraft were projected using two methodologies: top down and bottom up. The top down methodology examined the projected growth rate of the national general aviation active aircraft fleet as presented in the FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2013 2033. The active aircraft growth rate was applied to each airport through the end of the 20 year planning period. The bottom up methodology takes into consideration both the aforementioned national general aviation active aircraft growth rate as well as each airport s associated county population projection from the U.S. Census. To develop projections of general aviation aircraft operations for Ohio airports, top down and bottom up methodologies were also used. The top down methodology applies the growth rate of the FAA s national GA hours flown projection to each Ohio airport s base year general aviation operations and extends it through the end of the planning period. This methodology assumes that general aviation operations are directly correlated to the number of hours flown and that if the average hours flown per operation remains constant, operations must increase if hours flown are projected to increase. The bottom up methodology projects general aviation operations by applying the current OPBA (operations per based aircraft) for each airport to the preferred based aircraft projection. Commercial Service Activity Projections Commercial service activity projections were developed for passenger enplanements, annual operations, and air cargo tonnages. Calendar year 2012 was used as the base year for these projections, with the most recent FAA forecasts (FAA Aerospace Forecasts, FY 2013 2033) used as both a reference and a projection tool. Information from the FAA s Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) was also used in this analysis. Airline operations are typically defined by the following four categories: Major airlines with gross operating revenues of more than $1 billion during any calendar year. National airlines that gross between $100 million and $1 billion during any calendar year. Regional airlines that gross less than $100 million during any calendar year. Commuter airlines, which are classified by the type of aircraft used rather than the level of operating revenue. The term commuter is not associated with the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) reporting system for carrier earnings. Commuter airlines operate aircraft with a maximum of 60 seats and conduct at least five scheduled round trips per week between two or more points. Operations conducted by any of the airline types listed above are considered commercial service operations. For this analysis, all for operations types are combined. Unconstrained projections of commercial activity were prepared for the Ohio airports currently providing scheduled passenger and air cargo services. These airports include the following: Akron Akron Canton (CAK) Cleveland Cleveland Hopkins International (CLE) Columbus Port Columbus International (CMH) Columbus Rickenbacker International (LCK) Dayton James M. Cox Dayton International (DAY) Toledo Toledo Express (TOL) Youngstown/Warren Youngstown Warren Regional (YNG) OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 2

Annual Passenger Enplanements Passenger enplanement projections were developed by applying the projected growth rates for each airport as found in the TAF to the FAA s most recent (2012) enplanement estimate. The passenger enplanements projections for Ohio s seven airports are discussed in the following sections. To develop enplanements projections for the commercial service airports in Ohio, the TAF airportspecific projected growth rate between 2012 and each of the 5, 10, and 20 year milestones were used. These growth rates were then applied to base year (2012) FAA enplanements. The specific formula used to develop this projection for each airport is as follows: TAF 5 Year Enplanement Projection (2012 2017 AAGR) * Base Year FAA Enplanement = 2017 Projected Enplanements Example: (1.00 + 0.044) 5 * (910,313) = 1,127,250 TAF 10 Year Enplanement Projection (2012 2022 AAGR) * Base Year FAA Enplanement = 2022 Projected Enplanements Example: (1.00 + 0.038) 10 * (910,313) = 1,326,620 TAF 20 Year Enplanement Projection (2012 2032 AAGR) * Base Year FAA Enplanement = 2032 Projected Enplanements Example: (1.00 + 0.036) 20 * (910,313) = 1,837,470 This formula is used for all enplanement projections contained in this chapter. OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 3

Akron Canton Airport Enplanements at Akron Canton Airport over the last decade increased from 414,643 in 2002 to 921,767 in 2012, as shown in Table 4 1. Akron Canton has experienced strong growth over the last decade, having had only one year in which enplanements declined (2007). The airport is marketed as an alternative to Cleveland Hopkins International in Northeast Ohio and has benefitted from the growth in service by AirTran Airways/Southwest Airlines and Frontier Airlines. 1 To project enplanements for Akron Canton, the airport s projected TAF growth rates were applied to the base year enplanements. Enplanements are projected to reach over 1.86 million by 2032 (see Table 4 1). This results in an average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent. Table 4 1 Akron Canton Airport Historic and Projected Enplanements Historic Enplanements % Growth 2002 414,643 2003 536,589 29.4% 2004 652,477 21.6% 2005 706,664 8.3% 2006 720,827 2.0% 2007 683,007 5.2% 2008 709,338 3.9% 2009 717,212 1.1% 2010 757,792 5.7% 2011 788,158 4.0% 2012 921,767 17% AAGR 2002 2012 8.3% Projected Enplanements % Growth 2017 1,141,440 23.8% 2022 1,343,310 17.7% 2032 1,860,590 38.5% AAGR 2012 2032 3.6% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, Airport Website, CDM Smith 1 Frontier moved all operations from Akron Canton to Cleveland Hopkins International in September 2012 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 4

Cleveland Hopkins International Airport Enplanements at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport decreased from over 5.2 million in 2002 to over 4.3 million in 2012. 2012 marks the airport s lowest passenger enplanements total of the 10 year time period. Enplanements at the airport have fluctuated since 2001 but several specific events are attributable for this drop, including as the economic recession of 2008/2009 and the merger of Continental/United Airlines. To project enplanements for Cleveland Hopkins International, the airport s projected TAF growth rates were applied to the 2012 enplanements. Enplanements at this airport are projected to reach over 6.5 million by 2032 (see Table 4 2). This represents an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent. Table 4 2 Cleveland Hopkins International Airport Historic and Projected Enplanements Year Enplanements % Growth 2002 5,223,503 2003 4,996,766 4.3% 2004 5,268,160 5.4% 2005 5,553,860 5.4% 2006 5,436,824 2.1% 2007 5,537,153 1.8% 2008 5,485,860 0.9% 2009 4,731,869 13.7% 2010 4,604,934 2.7% 2011 4,465,468 3.0% 2012 4,346,941 2.7% AAGR 2002 2012 1.8% Projected Enplanements % Growth 2017 4,895,630 12.6% 2022 5,393,460 10.2% 2032 6,546,130 21.4% AAGR 2012 2032 2.1% Source: FAA, FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 5

Port Columbus International Airport Enplanements at Port Columbus International Airport decreased from over 3.2 million in 2002 to nearly 3.2 million in 2012. In 2004, passenger enplanements reached its lowest point for the 10 year time period, with just under 3.02 million passenger enplanements. Port Columbus decline in 2008 and 2009 can be attributed to several factors, including the global economic recession of 2008/2009, rising fuel prices, and the bankruptcy of Skybus Airlines, which operated its hub at the airport until 2008. To project enplanements for Port Columbus International, the airport s projected TAF growth rates were applied to the base year enplanements for each planning year. Enplanements at this airport are projected to reach over 4.9 million by 2032 (see Table 4 3). This represents an average annual growth rate of 2.2 percent. Table 4 3 Port Columbus International Airport Historic and Projected Enplanements Year Enplanements % Growth 2002 3,204,770 2003 3,149,103 1.7% 2004 3,021,583 4.0% 2005 3,263,061 8.0% 2006 3,274,398 0.3% 2007 3,725,782 13.8% 2008 3,493,739 6.2% 2009 3,102,363 11.2% 2010 3,125,287 0.7% 2011 3,144,548 0.6% 2012 3,190,068 1.4% AAGR 2002 2012 0.05% Projected Enplanements % Growth 2017 3,491,460 9.4% 2022 3,919,700 12.3% 2032 4,940,220 26.0% AAGR 2012 2032 2.2% Source: CRAA, FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 6

Rickenbacker International Airport Enplanements at Rickenbacker International Airport increased from 756 in 2002 to 6,513 in 2012. In 2004, passenger enplanements reached its high mark for the 10 year time period, with nearly 93,000 passenger enplanements. At its peak, Rickenbacker International was served by Southeast Airlines, Pan Am Clipper Connection (Boston Maine Airways), and Hooters Air. Each of these airlines ceased service at the airport for various reasons in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. 2 Direct Air served Rickenbacker on a seasonal basis from 2008 to 2011, and Vision Airlines briefly operated at the airport in 2012. Currently, Allegiant is the sole passenger carrier at the airport, which began year round service in the fall of 2012. 3 To project enplanements for Rickenbacker International, the airport s projected TAF growth rates were applied to the base year enplanements for each planning year. Enplanements at this airport are projected to reach nearly 7,650 by 2032 (see Table 4 4). This represents an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. Table 4 4 Rickenbacker International Airport Historic and Projected Enplanements Year Enplanements % Growth 2002 756 2003 5,485 625.5% 2004 92,738 1590.8% 2005 42,163 54.5% 2006 6,491 84.6% 2007 3,587 44.7% 2008 5,318 48.3% 2009 5,494 3.3% 2010 4,692 14.6% 2011 6,129 30.6% 2012 6,513 6.3% AAGR 2002 2012 24.0% Projected Enplanements % Growth 2017 6,780 4.1% 2022 7,060 4.1% 2032 7,650 8.4% AAGR 2012 2032 0.8% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith 2 http://www.aviationpros.com/news/10401439/hooters flights unlikely to return to rickenbacker columbus 3 http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2013/03/04/airport positive despite airline cutting flights.html OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 7

James M. Cox Dayton International Airport Enplanements at James M. Cox Dayton International Airport increased from 1.07 million in 2002 to over 1.28 million in 2012. In 2004, passenger enplanements reached its high point for the 10 year time period, with over 1.44 million passenger enplanements. With the exception of a few years, Dayton International has seen steady service gains from the remaining legacy airlines (American, Delta, United, US Airways) and, more recently, from low cost carriers (AirTran/Southwest, Frontier). The decline in enplanements experienced in 2009 and 2010 can be attributed to the global economic recession of 2008/2009 and the subsequent airline capacity reductions. To project enplanements for James M. Cox Dayton International, the airport s projected TAF growth rates were applied to the base year enplanements for each planning year. Enplanements at this airport are projected to reach over 1.5 million by 2032 (see Table 4 5). This represents an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent. Table 4 5 James M. Cox Dayton International Airport Historic and Projected Enplanements Year Enplanements % Growth 2002 1,076,388 2003 1,269,718 18.0% 2004 1,444,236 13.7% 2005 1,253,502 13.2% 2006 1,275,069 1.7% 2007 1,392,789 9.2% 2008 1,440,170 3.4% 2009 1,302,298 9.6% 2010 1,221,086 6.2% 2011 1,259,396 3.1% 2012 1,288,541 2.3% AAGR 2002 2012 1.8% Projected Enplanements % Growth 2017 1,400,520 8.7% 2022 1,446,320 3.3% 2032 1,542,610 6.7% AAGR 2012 2032 0.9% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 8

Toledo Express Airport Enplanements at Toledo Express Airport decreased from 325,452 in 2002 to 78,755 in 2012, representing an average annual growth rate of 13.2 percent. 2002 marks the airport s high point for passenger enplanements over the 10 year time period, with just 325,452 passenger enplanements. The steady decline in airline service at Toledo Express over the last decade can be attributed to a variety of factors, including airline consolidation/capacity reduction, as well as strong competition from nearby Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport. US Airways and ATA both ceased operations at the airport by the start of 2005, while Delta Air Lines steadily reduced service before ceasing all operations in 2011. 4 Direct Air also served the airport for several years before suspending operations in 2012. 5 Allegiant Air and American Airlines Eagle Airlines are the only remaining carriers at Toledo Express. 6 To project enplanements for Toledo Express, the airport s projected TAF growth rates were applied to the base year enplanements for each planning year. Enplanements at this airport are projected to reach 96,000 by 2032 (see Table 4 6). This represents an average annual growth rate of 1 percent. Table 4 6 Toledo Express Airport Historic and Projected Enplanements Year Enplanements % Growth 2002 325,452 2003 290,385 10.8% 2004 313,781 8.1% 2005 258,391 17.7% 2006 200,277 22.5% 2007 170,027 15.1% 2008 139,793 17.8% 2009 97,731 30.1% 2010 87,199 10.8% 2011 78,423 10.1% 2012 78,755 0.4% AAGR 2002 2012 13.2% Projected Enplanements % Growth 2017 82,530 4.8% 2022 86,640 5.0% 2032 96,030 10.8% AAGR 2012 2032 1.0% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith 4 http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2005/01/11/limo firm abruptly ends Express Airport service.html 5 http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2012/03/14/directair suspends operations.html 6 http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/post/2011/02/delta air lines drops toledo/144259/1 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 9

Youngstown Warren Regional Airport Enplanements at Youngstown Warren Regional Airport increased from 13,466 in 2002 to 40,102 in 2012. In 2003, passenger enplanements reached its lowest point for the 10 year time period, with just 7,196 passenger enplanements. Numerous airlines have served Youngstown Warren Regional at various points throughout its history and very little service existed until the arrival of Allegiant Air in 2006. With strong load factors Allegiant Air has increased frequencies and added destinations over the last 5 years. Growth at the airport has largely been incremental and has mirrored the economic growth over the last 10 years of the Mahoning Valley. 7 Frontier Airlines also operate casino junkets, or charter flights, out of the airport, having replaced Xtra Airways in 2013. 8 To project enplanements for Youngstown Warren Regional, the airport s projected TAF growth rates were applied to the base year enplanements for each planning year. Enplanements at this airport are projected to remain at 40,000 through 2032 (see Table 4 7), with no growth projected by the TAF. Table 4 7 Youngstown Warren Regional Airport Historic and Projected Enplanements Year Enplanements % Growth 2002 13,466 2003 7,196 46.6% 2004 20,647 186.9% 2005 8,175 60.4% 2006 9,613 17.6% 2007 17,680 83.9% 2008 18,109 2.4% 2009 16,418 9.3% 2010 24,279 47.9% 2011 34,957 44.0% 2012 40,102 14.7% AAGR 2002 2012 11.5% Projected Enplanements % Growth 2017 40,100 0.0% 2022 40,100 0.0% 2032 40,100 0.0% AAGR 2012 2032 0.0% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith Total Statewide Enplanements A summary of each airport s historic and projected enplanements are shown in Table 4 8. The historic totals depicted in Table 8 represent what is found in the FAA TAF, while the projected totals were calculated by applying the TAF s projected enplanement growth rate to base year enplanements. As shown in Table 4 9, total statewide enplanements decreased from 10.2 million in 2002 to 9.7 million 2012, representing an average annual growth of 0.5 percent. The years in which statewide enplanements declined correspond to the global economic downturn of 2008/2009, which had negative impacts on enplanement levels at several of the individual airports. Other indicators of statewide trends are discussed in the previous chapter. For comparison, total U.S. enplanements 7 http://www.vindy.com/news/2013/jul/31/allegiant adding new destination from ai/ 8 http://www.vindy.com/news/2013/feb/02/frontier starts flights from vienna airp/ OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 10

grew by an average annual rate of 1.27 percent over the same period. According to the FAA TAF and projections by CDM Smith, enplanements are projected to increase from 9.7 million in 2012 to 14.8 million in 2032. This growth in enplanements represents an overall statewide average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent. Although more conservative, this rate is considered to be in line with national projections of domestic enplanement activity, which project enplanements to increase at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent from 2012 to 2032 (according to FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2013 2033). Historic Table 4 8 Comparison of Historic and Projected Enplanements by Airport Cleveland Port Akron Hopkins Columbus Rickenbacker Dayton Toledo Canton Int l Int l Int l Int l Express Youngstown Warren Rgnl 2002 414,643 5,223,503 3,204,770 756 1,076,388 325,452 13,466 2003 536,589 4,996,766 3,149,103 5,485 1,269,718 290,385 7,196 2004 652,477 5,268,160 3,021,583 92,738 1,444,236 313,781 20,647 2005 706,664 5,553,860 3,263,061 42,163 1,253,502 258,391 8,175 2006 720,827 5,436,824 3,274,398 6,491 1,275,069 200,277 9,613 2007 683,007 5,537,153 3,725,782 3,587 1,392,789 170,027 17,680 2008 709,338 5,485,860 3,493,739 5,318 1,440,170 139,793 18,109 2009 717,212 4,731,869 3,102,363 5,494 1,302,298 97,731 16,418 2010 757,792 4,604,934 3,125,287 4,692 1,221,086 87,199 24,279 2011 788,158 4,465,468 3,144,548 6,129 1,259,396 78,423 34,957 2012 910,313 4,325,353 3,095,360 6,513 1,288,541 78,755 40,102 AAGR 2002 2012 8.2% 1.9% 0.3% 24.0% 1.8% 13.2% 11.5% Projected Akron Canton Cleveland Hopkins Int l Port Columbus Int l Rickenbacker Int l Dayton Int l Toledo Express Youngstown Warren Rgnl 2017 1,127,250 4,871,320 3,387,810 6,780 1,400,520 82,530 40,100 2022 1,326,620 5,366,670 3,803,330 7,060 1,446,320 86,640 40,100 2032 1,837,470 6,513,620 4,793,550 7,650 1,542,610 96,030 40,100 AAGR 2012 2032 3.6% 2.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 11

Table 4 9 Total Statewide Enplanements by Year Historic Enplanements % Growth 2002 10,258,978 2003 10,255,242 0.0% 2004 10,813,622 5.4% 2005 11,085,816 2.5% 2006 10,923,499 1.5% 2007 11,530,025 5.6% 2008 11,292,327 2.1% 2009 9,973,385 11.7% 2010 9,825,269 1.5% 2011 9,777,079 0.5% 2012 9,744,937 0.3% AAGR 2002 2012 0.5% Projected Enplanements % Growth 2017 10,916,310 12.0% 2022 12,076,740 10.6% 2032 14,831,030 22.8% AAGR 2012 2032 2.1% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith Annual Airline Operations Commercial airline operations refer to those takeoffs and landings performed by scheduled airlines, including major, national, regional, and commuter carriers. Commercial service airports in Ohio are served by a variety of carriers, with three out of the seven being served strictly by smaller commuter airlines. There is a direct correlation between enplanements and commercial operations, but the correlation is not the same for airports served by a mix of major and commuter airlines. Major carriers typically operate equipment with seating capacities between 110 and 300 seats. Commuter operators in Ohio operate aircraft with seating capacities between 30 and 70 seats. With these varying seating capacities, operational needs are determined by enplanements and average load factors. Additionally, the airline industry s shift away from smaller, less profitable regional jets to larger aircraft is expected to result in declining operations even with potential gains in enplanements. Statewide airline aircraft operations have decreased historically from 529,883 operations in 2002 to 365,232 operations in 2012, representing an average annual growth rate of 3.65 percent during the time period. Akron Canton, Rickenbacker International, and Youngstown Warren Regional were the only airports that experienced gains in airline operations. However, these airports represent three of the four smallest airports by annual airline operations and these gains were not large enough to make up for the losses experienced by three more active airports. Table 4 10 identifies the seven commercial service airports in Ohio and their historic and projected annual commercial service airline operations as found in the FAA TAF. OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 12

Historic Table 4 10 Comparison of Historic and Projected Airline Operations by Airport Cleveland Port Akron Hopkins Columbus Rickenbacker Dayton Toledo Canton Int l Int l Int l Int l Express Youngstown Warren Rgnl 2002 2,755 241,346 184,266 736 83,033 17,361 386 2003 7,146 233,011 172,067 736 84,422 12,268 286 2004 11,758 249,411 162,073 1,750 86,699 13,764 567 2005 15,006 247,348 157,373 4,921 85,890 13,215 51 2006 21,651 237,664 131,244 4,160 70,577 10,144 33 2007 21,597 233,449 124,251 4,482 60,051 9,724 39 2008 23,084 233,070 125,789 4,740 59,620 10,080 437 2009 21,981 195,093 113,506 4,785 53,057 9,143 346 2010 22,363 184,710 109,570 4,830 49,890 9,629 554 2011 12,464 181,601 111,766 4,862 49,402 9,032 615 2012 15,776 174,568 107,892` 17,848 46,674 1,769 705 AAGR 2002 2012 19.07% 3.19% 5.21% 37.55% 5.60% 20.42% 6.21% Projected Akron Canton Cleveland Hopkins Int l Port Columbus Int l Rickenbacker Int l Dayton Int l Toledo Express Youngstown Warren Rgnl 2017 20,319 187,760 112,572 19,766 47,526 1,769 705 2022 26,852 200,821 120,571 21,900 45,564 1,769 705 2032 37,558 229,695 141,180 26,366 45,018 1,769 705 AAGR 2012 2032 4.43% 1.38% 1.35% 1.97% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith Projections of airline operations at Ohio s commercial service airports were also taken directly from the FAA TAF. FAA TAF data indicate that statewide air carrier operations from 2012 to 2032 are anticipated to grow at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Akron Canton is projected to grow the fastest, with an average annual growth rate of 4.43 percent. Rickenbacker International, Cleveland Hopkins International, and Port Columbus International are projected to have the second, third, and fourth fastest growth rates. Growth at Toledo Express and Youngstown Warren Regional are projected to be flat, while James M. Cox Dayton International is projected to continue losing airline operations, albeit at a slower rate than it experienced historically. Statewide, the average annual growth rate is projected to be 1.4 percent, which takes Ohio s commercial service airline operations from 365,000 in 2012 to 482,000 in 2032. Table 4 11 identifies statewide totals of historic and projected annual commercial airline operations. OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 13

Table 4 11 Historic and Projected Airline Operations Statewide Totals by Year Historic Operations % Growth 2002 529,883 2003 509,936 3.76% 2004 526,022 3.15% 2005 523,804 0.42% 2006 475,473 9.23% 2007 453,593 4.60% 2008 456,820 0.71% 2009 397,911 12.90% 2010 381,546 4.11% 2011 369,742 3.09% 2012 365,232 1.22% AAGR 2002 2012 3.65% Projected Operations % Growth 2017 390,417 6.90% 2022 418,182 7.11% 2032 482,291 15.33% AAGR 2012 2032 1.40% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith Annual Air Cargo Tonnage As discussed in the preceding Trends Chapter, air cargo has played a major role in Ohio s aviation legacy. However, due to a multitude of market forces the state has experienced an overall decline in air cargo tonnage and has seen the closure of three major air cargo hubs (the UPS owned Emery/Menlo Worldwide hub at Dayton International, DHL s Wilmington Air Park hub, and BAX Global s hub at Toledo Express). The majority of scheduled air cargo is transported primarily by three airline types: all cargo carriers, integrated express carriers, and passenger airlines. Cleveland Hopkins International and Dayton International each accommodate air cargo through both integrated express carriers and through passenger airlines carrying freight as belly cargo. FedEx Express, Mountain Air Cargo (a contracted feeder airline for FedEx), and UPS each serve the air cargo needs of the Cleveland market. Toledo Express accommodates scheduled air cargo through one passenger airline and one integrated express carrier (DHL/DHL contractors). Rickenbacker is unique in that it serves as an intermodal cargo port for freight transported by air, road, and rail; however, rail freight and air freight are rarely interlined. Air cargo operators that serve Rickenbacker include FedEx Express, Mountain Air Cargo, UPS, Cargolux, AirNet Express, Kalitta Air, and Evergreen International Airlines. All scheduled air cargo at both Akron Canton and Port Columbus International comes in the form of belly cargo on passenger aircraft. Typically any airport with scheduled passenger service will also have some level of belly cargo; however, due to the nature of airline service supported by Youngstown Warren Regional (vacation airlines/casino charters) there is no measurable air cargo tonnage. In order to project future air cargo tonnages in Ohio s airports, current air cargo carriers were examined to determine the type of air cargo activity accommodated by each airport. The type of activity accommodated corresponds to the specific growth rates projected for air cargo found in the FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2013 2033. The FAA projects air cargo activity in Revenue Ton Miles, or RTMS, for all cargo carriers, passenger carriers, as well as a total combining both. According to the FAA, growth in domestic passenger airline belly cargo is projected to be flat through 2033, while slight growth is anticipated in RTMS for domestic all cargo carriers, which OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 14

includes both all cargo carriers and integrated express carriers. When combined, the average growth rate for air cargo is estimated at 0.7 percent annually. This growth rate was then applied to each airport s base year tonnage and extended through the end of the planning period. The projected tonnages for each airport are presented in Table 4 12 below. It is important to note that only airports with existing scheduled air cargo tonnages were projected; airports without existing scheduled air cargo service were assumed to remain at zero. Table 4 12 Projected Air Cargo Tonnages Base Year Tonnage Projected Tonnage Airport Name 2012 2017 2022 2032 Akron Canton 67 69 72 77 Cleveland Hopkins Int'l 84,910 87,924 91,044 97,622 Port Columbus Int l 4,826 4,998 5,175 5,549 Rickenbacker Int l 79,696 82,525 85,454 91,628 James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 8,597 8,902 9,218 9,884 Toledo Express* 10,000 10,355 10,722 11,497 Wilmington Air Park 0 0 0 0 Youngstown Warren Rgnl 0 0 0 0 Ohio Total 188,097 194,773 201,686 216,257 Source: ACI NA, Airport Websites, FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013 2033, CDM Smith *Estimate for Toledo Express based on air cargo service levels post BAX Global hub closure in 2011 General Aviation Activity Projections General aviation activity represents all facets of civil aviation, except scheduled activity by certificated air carriers. Projections of based aircraft and general aviation operations were prepared for the system airports in the State of Ohio. These terms are defined as follows: Based Aircraft The total number of general aviation aircraft that are stored in either hangars or tie downs at an airport Operations An operation is defined as a landing or a takeoff; both a landing and a takeoff, such as a touch and go, accounts for two operations. It is important to note that general aviation activity occurs at all of the airports in Ohio s system. Therefore, projections of these two activity indicators were prepared for all 104 Ohio system airports. Based Aircraft Projections Projections of general aviation based aircraft are used in developing general aviation operations projections in later analyses. Two projection methodologies were used to project based aircraft for each system airport: The first methodology was a bottom up approach. This approach used the projected population trend experienced by each airport s associated county to forecast future based aircraft. The second methodology used to project based aircraft was a top down methodology. This methodology projected based aircraft by applying the projected national average annual growth rate of active aircraft (as found in the FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2013 2033) to each airport s current based aircraft count through 2032. Each airport's share of statewide based aircraft remained constant to project based aircraft on an individual airport basis. OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 15

Each of these methodologies, their resultant projections, and the preferred based aircraft projections are discussed in the following sections. Bottom Up Methodology In the bottom up growth rate methodology, the projected population growth from 2012 to 2032 at each system airport s associated county was first calculated using available census data. Due to the wide ranges of projected change, counties, and their associated airports, were categorized into five growth rate categories to project future based aircraft. The FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2013 2033 is the best available source for benchmarking future growth of based aircraft at the national level. The FAA anticipates that nationally the active general aviation aircraft fleet will increase at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent through 2032. To project based aircraft for each of the airports in the Ohio system, increases or decreases from this 0.5 percent national average annual growth rate were used. The proportional increase or decrease was determined by the projected population growth of each airport s associated county. Airports in counties projected to experience no (or negative) population growth are expected to experience no growth in based aircraft. For airports in counties projected to have up to a 0.25 annual rate of population growth during the 2012 to 2032 time frame, based aircraft were expected to increase at one half the national average, resulting in an adjusted annual growth rate of 0.25 percent. For those airports in counties projected to experience between 0.25 percent and 0.5 percent population AAGR, the national growth rate of 0.5 percent was applied. For those airports in counties projected to experience between 0.5 percent and 2.0 percent population AAGR during this time frame, an adjusted annual growth rate of 0.75 percent was used (1.5 times the national average). Airports in counties projected to have growth greater than 2.0 percent population growth were assigned a growth rate three times the national average. This type of projection is referred to as a bottom up methodology as it looks at activity from the airport specific level and then totals the individual projections to develop a statewide total. The growth rates are show in Table 4 13. Table 4 13 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection Adjusted Active Aircraft Growth Rate Based on Projected Population Growth Rate: Bottom Up Methodology Population Growth Rate Range Airports in Range Population Growth Low High Active Aircraft Multiplier 23 Negative or None 0.00% 0.00% 0.0 21 Low 0.00% 0.25% 0.5 18 Med Low 0.25% 0.50% 1.0 39 Med High 0.50% 2.00% 1.5 3 High 2.00% 5.00% 3.0 Notes: Airports in Negative or None category Seneca County Jefferson County Airpark Middle Bass Island Put In Bay North Bass Island Monroe County Barnesville Bradfield Harrison County Lima Allen County James M. Cox Dayton Int'l Fostoria Metropolitan Cincinnati West Morgan County Moraine Air Park Cincinnati Municipal Lunken Field Dayton Wright Brothers Carl R. Keller Field Greater Portsmouth Regional Sandusky County Regional Toledo Express Van Wert County Youngstown Warren Regional OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 16

Table 4 13 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection Adjusted Active Aircraft Growth Rate Based on Projected Population Growth Rate: Bottom Up Methodology Airports in Low category Greene County Lewis A. Jackson Regional Williams County Port Bucyrus Crawford County Kent State University Wyandot County Bluffton Akron Fulton International Burke Lakefront Akron Canton Cuyahoga County Cleveland Hopkins Int'l Defiance Memorial Airports in Med Low category Columbiana County Norwalk Huron County Henry County Kelleys Island Municipal Willard Cambridge Municipal Pickaway County Memorial Galion Municipal Northeast Ohio Regional Airports in Med High category Holmes County Wood County Medina Municipal Vinton County Wadsworth Municipal Ashland County Knox County Morrow County Deshler Municipal Landing Strip Geauga County Alexander Salamon Neil Armstrong Wayne County Port Columbus International Lakefield Bellefontaine Regional Pike County Gallia Meigs Regional Brown County Airports in High category Butler County Regional Delaware Municipal Jim Moore Field Findlay Lawrence County Airpark Richard Downing Hardin County Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal Lorain County Regional Marion Municipal Portage County Ohio University Snyder Field Darke County Sidney Municipal Piqua Hartzell Field Fayette County James A. Rhodes Mansfield Lahm Regional Putnam County Harry Clever Field Springfield Beckley Municipal Madison County Highland County Noble County Clinton Field Clermont County Grimes Field Perry County Wilmington Air Park Rickenbacker International Fairfield County Middletown Regional/Hook Field Ohio State University Miami University Ross County Toledo Executive Carroll County Tolson Bolton Field Fulton County Newark Heath Zanesville Municipal Union County Warren County/John Lane Field Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013 2033, U.S. Census, CDM Smith OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 17

As shown in Table 4 14, using the bottom up methodology, statewide based aircraft are projected to increase from 4,687 in 2012 to 5,182 in 2032, a statewide average annual growth rate of 0.503 percent over the 20 year period. This rate is marginally higher than the FAA s projected average annual rate of 0.5 percent over the same time period. This reflects consistency with national projection averages while correlating growth to local demographic trends. Top Down Methodology Table 4 15 presents projected statewide based general aviation aircraft for Ohio using the topdown methodology. As previously discussed, the FAA Aerospace Forecast projects that national based aircraft are projected to increase by an average annual growth rate of 0.5 percent. By applying this growth rate to each airport's current based aircraft total through the end of the planning period, individual airport projections were produced (see Table 4 15). OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 18

Table 4 14 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection: Bottom Up Methodology Associated City Airport Name Population AAGR 2012 2032 Active Aircraft AAGR 2012 2032 Adjusted CAGR 2012 2017 2022 2032 Akron Akron Fulton International 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 117 118 120 123 Akron Akron Canton 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 137 139 140 144 Ashland Ashland County 0.79% 0.50% 0.75% 41 43 44 48 Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 0.32% 0.50% 0.50% 27 28 28 30 Athens/Albany Ohio University Snyder Field 0.17% 0.50% 0.25% 45 46 46 47 Barnesville Barnesville Bradfield 0.36% 0.50% 0.00% 9 9 9 9 Batavia Clermont County 1.16% 0.50% 0.75% 120 125 129 139 Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 0.80% 0.50% 0.75% 25 26 27 29 Bluffton Bluffton 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 24 24 25 25 Bowling Green Wood County 0.56% 0.50% 0.75% 43 45 46 50 Bryan Williams County 0.14% 0.50% 0.25% 26 26 27 27 Bucyrus Port Bucyrus Crawford County 0.07% 0.50% 0.25% 31 31 32 33 Cadiz Harrison County 0.09% 0.50% 0.00% 28 28 28 28 Caldwell Noble County 0.75% 0.50% 0.75% 8 8 9 9 Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 0.47% 0.50% 0.50% 20 21 21 22 Carrollton Carroll County Tolson 1.25% 0.50% 0.75% 30 31 32 35 Celina Lakefield 0.65% 0.50% 0.75% 13 13 14 15 Chesapeake/ Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 0.17% 0.50% 0.25% 40 40 41 42 Chillicothe Ross County 0.68% 0.50% 0.75% 39 40 42 45 Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal Lunken Field 0.52% 0.50% 0.00% 193 193 193 193 Circleville Pickaway County Memorial 0.34% 0.50% 0.50% 33 34 35 36 Cleveland Burke Lakefront 0.04% 0.50% 0.25% 35 35 36 37 Cleveland Cuyahoga County 0.04% 0.50% 0.25% 133 135 136 140 Cleveland Cleveland Hopkins Int'l 0.04% 0.50% 0.25% 29 29 30 30 Columbus Port Columbus International 0.58% 0.50% 0.75% 83 86 89 96 Columbus Rickenbacker International 0.58% 0.50% 0.75% 9 9 10 10 Columbus Ohio State University 0.58% 0.50% 0.75% 167 173 180 194 Columbus Bolton Field 0.58% 0.50% 0.75% 86 89 93 100 Coshocton Richard Downing 0.12% 0.50% 0.25% 27 27 28 28 Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 31 31 31 31 Dayton Greene County Lewis A. Jackson Regional 0.16% 0.50% 0.00% 87 87 87 87 Dayton Moraine Air Park 0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 112 112 112 112 Dayton Dayton Wright Brothers 0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 102 102 102 102 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 19

Table 4 14 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection: Bottom Up Methodology Associated City Airport Name Population AAGR 2012 2032 Active Aircraft AAGR 2012 2032 Adjusted CAGR 2012 2017 2022 2032 Defiance Defiance Memorial 0.21% 0.50% 0.25% 23 23 24 24 Delaware Delaware Municipal Jim Moore Field 2.16% 0.50% 1.50% 83 89 96 112 Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 0.56% 0.50% 0.75% 6 6 6 7 East Liverpool Columbiana County 0.28% 0.50% 0.50% 29 30 30 32 Findlay Findlay 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 25 25 26 26 Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan 0.53% 0.50% 0.00% 22 22 22 22 Fremont Sandusky County Regional 0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 11 11 11 11 Galion Galion Municipal 0.42% 0.50% 0.50% 33 34 35 36 Gallipolis Gallia Meigs Regional 0.57% 0.50% 0.75% 57 59 61 66 Georgetown Brown County 1.36% 0.50% 0.75% 19 20 20 22 Hamilton Butler County Regional 0.96% 0.50% 0.75% 202 210 218 234 Harrison Cincinnati West 0.52% 0.50% 0.00% 32 32 32 32 Hillsboro Highland County 0.95% 0.50% 0.75% 21 22 23 24 Jackson James A. Rhodes 0.44% 0.50% 0.50% 23 24 24 25 Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal 0.47% 0.50% 0.50% 5 5 5 6 Kent Kent State University 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 41 42 42 43 Kenton Hardin County 0.21% 0.50% 0.25% 17 17 17 18 Lancaster Fairfield County 1.74% 0.50% 0.75% 87 90 94 101 Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 2.49% 0.50% 1.50% 119 128 138 160 Lima Lima Allen County 0.02% 0.50% 0.00% 40 40 40 40 London Madison County 0.43% 0.50% 0.50% 51 52 54 56 Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 0.20% 0.50% 0.25% 83 84 85 87 Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 0.42% 0.50% 0.50% 80 82 84 88 Marion Marion Municipal 0.16% 0.50% 0.25% 54 55 55 57 Marysville Union County 2.70% 0.50% 1.50% 71 76 82 95 McArthur Vinton County 0.81% 0.50% 0.75% 14 15 15 16 McConnelsville Morgan County 0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 8 8 8 8 Medina Medina Municipal 0.97% 0.50% 0.75% 83 86 89 96 Middle Bass Middle Bass Island 0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 1 1 1 1 Middlefield Geauga County 0.85% 0.50% 0.75% 42 44 45 49 Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 0.96% 0.50% 0.75% 90 93 97 104 Millersburg Holmes County 0.80% 0.50% 0.75% 24 25 26 28 Mount Gilead Morrow County 0.56% 0.50% 0.75% 21 22 23 24 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 20

Table 4 14 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection: Bottom Up Methodology Associated City Airport Name Population AAGR 2012 2032 Active Aircraft AAGR 2012 2032 Adjusted CAGR 2012 2017 2022 2032 Mount Vernon Knox County 0.79% 0.50% 0.75% 96 100 103 111 Napoleon Henry County 0.40% 0.50% 0.50% 21 22 22 23 New Lexington Perry County 0.86% 0.50% 0.75% 9 9 10 10 New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 0.34% 0.50% 0.50% 41 42 43 45 Newark Newark Heath 0.95% 0.50% 0.75% 68 71 73 79 North Bass Island North Bass Island 0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 0 0 0 0 Norwalk Norwalk Huron County 0.43% 0.50% 0.50% 25 26 26 28 Ottawa Putnam County 0.29% 0.50% 0.50% 22 23 23 24 Oxford Miami University 0.96% 0.50% 0.75% 8 8 9 9 Piqua Piqua Hartzell Field 0.26% 0.50% 0.50% 33 34 35 36 Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field 0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 51 51 51 51 Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional 0.01% 0.50% 0.00% 28 28 28 28 Put In Bay Put In Bay 0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 3 3 3 3 Ravenna Portage County 0.01% 0.50% 0.25% 58 59 59 61 Sidney Sidney Municipal 0.38% 0.50% 0.50% 41 42 43 45 Springfield Springfield Beckley Municipal 0.27% 0.50% 0.50% 39 40 41 43 Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark 1.12% 0.50% 0.00% 35 35 35 35 Tiffin Seneca County 0.53% 0.50% 0.00% 32 32 32 32 Toledo Toledo Executive 0.56% 0.50% 0.75% 51 53 55 59 Toledo Toledo Express 0.26% 0.50% 0.00% 48 48 48 48 Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 0.15% 0.50% 0.25% 12 12 12 13 Urbana Grimes Field 0.96% 0.50% 0.75% 32 33 34 37 Van Wert Van Wert County 0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 35 35 35 35 Versailles Darke County 0.02% 0.50% 0.25% 28 28 29 29 Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 0.97% 0.50% 0.75% 80 83 86 93 Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong 0.71% 0.50% 0.75% 30 31 32 35 Washington Court House Fayette County 0.27% 0.50% 0.50% 16 16 17 18 Wauseon Fulton County 0.80% 0.50% 0.75% 35 36 38 41 Waverly Pike County 0.57% 0.50% 0.75% 8 8 9 9 West Union Alexander Salamon 0.93% 0.50% 0.75% 12 12 13 14 Willard Willard 0.43% 0.50% 0.50% 1 1 1 1 Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 0.07% 0.50% 0.25% 75 76 77 79 Wilmington Clinton Field 1.39% 0.50% 0.75% 31 32 33 36 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 21

Table 4 14 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection: Bottom Up Methodology Associated City Airport Name Population AAGR 2012 2032 Active Aircraft AAGR 2012 2032 Adjusted CAGR 2012 2017 2022 2032 Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 1.39% 0.50% 0.75% 0 0 0 0 Woodsfield Monroe County 0.42% 0.50% 0.00% 14 14 14 14 Wooster Wayne County 0.97% 0.50% 0.75% 41 43 44 48 Youngstown/Warren Youngstown Warren Regional 0.17% 0.50% 0.00% 43 43 43 43 Zanesville Zanesville Municipal 0.53% 0.50% 0.75% 18 19 19 21 Ohio Total 0.35% 0.50% 0.50% 4,687 4,803 4,925 5,182 Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013 2033, U.S. Census, CDM Smith OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 22

Table 4 15 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection: Top Down Methodology Associated City Airport Name Active Aircraft AAGR 2012 2032 2012 2017 2022 2032 Akron Akron Fulton International 0.50% 117 120 123 129 Akron Akron Canton 0.50% 137 140 144 151 Ashland Ashland County 0.50% 41 42 43 45 Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 0.50% 27 28 28 30 Athens/Albany Ohio University Snyder Field 0.50% 45 46 47 50 Barnesville Barnesville Bradfield 0.50% 9 9 9 10 Batavia Clermont County 0.50% 120 123 126 133 Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 0.50% 25 26 26 28 Bluffton Bluffton 0.50% 24 25 25 27 Bowling Green Wood County 0.50% 43 44 45 47 Bryan Williams County 0.50% 26 27 27 29 Bucyrus Port Bucyrus Crawford County 0.50% 31 32 33 34 Cadiz Harrison County 0.50% 28 29 29 31 Caldwell Noble County 0.50% 8 8 8 9 Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 0.50% 20 21 21 22 Carrollton Carroll County Tolson 0.50% 30 31 32 33 Celina Lakefield 0.50% 13 13 14 14 Chesapeake/ Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 0.50% 40 41 42 44 Chillicothe Ross County 0.50% 39 40 41 43 Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal Lunken Field 0.50% 193 198 203 213 Circleville Pickaway County Memorial 0.50% 33 34 35 36 Cleveland Burke Lakefront 0.50% 35 36 37 39 Cleveland Cuyahoga County 0.50% 133 136 140 147 Cleveland Cleveland Hopkins Int'l 0.50% 29 30 30 32 Columbus Port Columbus International 0.50% 83 85 87 92 Columbus Rickenbacker International 0.50% 9 9 9 10 Columbus Ohio State University 0.50% 167 171 175 184 Columbus Bolton Field 0.50% 86 88 90 95 Coshocton Richard Downing 0.50% 27 28 28 30 Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 0.50% 31 32 33 34 Dayton Greene County Lewis A. Jackson Regional 0.50% 87 89 91 96 Dayton Moraine Air Park 0.50% 112 115 118 124 Dayton Dayton Wright Brothers 0.50% 102 105 107 113 Defiance Defiance Memorial 0.50% 23 24 24 25 Delaware Delaware Municipal Jim Moore Field 0.50% 83 85 87 92 Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 0.50% 6 6 6 7 East Liverpool Columbiana County 0.50% 29 30 30 32 Findlay Findlay 0.50% 25 26 26 28 Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan 0.50% 22 23 23 24 Fremont Sandusky County Regional 0.50% 11 11 12 12 Galion Galion Municipal 0.50% 33 34 35 36 Gallipolis Gallia Meigs Regional 0.50% 57 58 60 63 Georgetown Brown County 0.50% 19 19 20 21 Hamilton Butler County Regional 0.50% 202 207 212 223 Harrison Cincinnati West 0.50% 32 33 34 35 Hillsboro Highland County 0.50% 21 22 22 23 Jackson James A. Rhodes 0.50% 23 24 24 25 Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal 0.50% 5 5 5 6 Kent Kent State University 0.50% 41 42 43 45 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 23

Table 4 15 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection: Top Down Methodology Associated City Airport Name Active Aircraft AAGR 2012 2032 2012 2017 2022 2032 Kenton Hardin County 0.50% 17 17 18 19 Lancaster Fairfield County 0.50% 87 89 91 96 Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 0.50% 119 122 125 131 Lima Lima Allen County 0.50% 40 41 42 44 London Madison County 0.50% 51 52 54 56 Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 0.50% 83 85 87 92 Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 0.50% 80 82 84 88 Marion Marion Municipal 0.50% 54 55 57 60 Marysville Union County 0.50% 71 73 75 78 McArthur Vinton County 0.50% 14 14 15 15 McConnelsville Morgan County 0.50% 8 8 8 9 Medina Medina Municipal 0.50% 83 85 87 92 Middle Bass Middle Bass Island 0.50% 1 1 1 1 Middlefield Geauga County 0.50% 42 43 44 46 Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 0.50% 90 92 95 99 Millersburg Holmes County 0.50% 24 25 25 27 Mount Gilead Morrow County 0.50% 21 22 22 23 Mount Vernon Knox County 0.50% 96 98 101 106 Napoleon Henry County 0.50% 21 22 22 23 New Lexington Perry County 0.50% 9 9 9 10 New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 0.50% 41 42 43 45 Newark Newark Heath 0.50% 68 70 71 75 North Bass Island North Bass Island 0.50% 0 0 0 0 Norwalk Norwalk Huron County 0.50% 25 26 26 28 Ottawa Putnam County 0.50% 22 23 23 24 Oxford Miami University 0.50% 8 8 8 9 Piqua Piqua Hartzell Field 0.50% 33 34 35 36 Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field 0.50% 51 52 54 56 Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional 0.50% 28 29 29 31 Put In Bay Put In Bay 0.50% 3 3 3 3 Ravenna Portage County 0.50% 58 59 61 64 Sidney Sidney Municipal 0.50% 41 42 43 45 Springfield Springfield Beckley Municipal 0.50% 39 40 41 43 Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark 0.50% 35 36 37 39 Tiffin Seneca County 0.50% 32 33 34 35 Toledo Toledo Executive 0.50% 51 52 54 56 Toledo Toledo Express 0.50% 48 49 50 53 Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 0.50% 12 12 13 13 Urbana Grimes Field 0.50% 32 33 34 35 Van Wert Van Wert County 0.50% 35 36 37 39 Versailles Darke County 0.50% 28 29 29 31 Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 0.50% 80 82 84 88 Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong 0.50% 30 31 32 33 Washington Court House Fayette County 0.50% 16 16 17 18 Wauseon Fulton County 0.50% 35 36 37 39 Waverly Pike County 0.50% 8 8 8 9 West Union Alexander Salamon 0.50% 12 12 13 13 Willard Willard 0.50% 1 1 1 1 Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 0.50% 75 77 79 83 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 24

Table 4 15 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projection: Top Down Methodology Associated City Airport Name Active Aircraft AAGR 2012 2032 2012 2017 2022 2032 Wilmington Clinton Field 0.50% 31 32 33 34 Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 0.50% 0 0 0 0 Woodsfield Monroe County 0.50% 14 14 15 15 Wooster Wayne County 0.50% 41 42 43 45 Youngstown/Warren Youngstown Warren Regional 0.50% 43 44 45 47 Zanesville Zanesville Municipal 0.50% 18 18 19 20 Ohio Total 0.50% 4,687 4,806 4,922 5,171 Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013 2033, CDM Smith Preferred Based Aircraft Methodology The results from the two based aircraft projection methodologies developed in this forecast are compared in Table 4 16. In 2012, the Ohio airports examined as part of this analysis were home to 4,687 based aircraft. The bottom up methodology produced a 2032 statewide projection of 5,182 based aircraft, an average annual growth rate of 0.503 percent. The top down methodology produced a 2032 statewide projection of 5,171 based aircraft, an average annual growth rate of 0.50 percent. After comparing the results and the average annual growth rates of each methodology (Table 4 16), the bottom up growth rate methodology was chosen as the preferred methodology. This rate is consistent with projected growth in national active aircraft while also adjusting for projected local demographic trends. Methodology Table 4 16 General Aviation Based Aircraft Projections Comparison of Methodologies AAGR 2012 2032 2012 2017 2022 2032 Bottom Up 0.503% 4,687 4,803 4,925 5,182 Top Down 0.50% 4,687 4,806 4,922 5,171 Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013 2033, U.S. Census, CDM Smith Based Aircraft Fleet Mix An airport s fleet mix is one indication of its operational role and facility needs. Exhibit 4 1 shows the 2012 general aviation fleet mix in Ohio. Single engine aircraft account for the majority of all based aircraft, 80 percent of the statewide total. Multi engine aircraft follow with 10 percent. Jets and helicopters account for seven and two percent, respectively. Other types of aircraft, including ultralight/light sport aircraft, gliders, blimps/dirigibles, and experimental aircraft, comprise one percent of the state total. OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 25

Exhibit 4 1 Current Based Aircraft Fleet Mix 2012 457 (10%) 315 (7%) 100 (2%) 54 (1%) Single Engine Multi Engine Jets Helicopters Others 3,761 (80%) Source: Airport Inventory & Data Survey 2012, CDM Smith A statewide forecast of the based aircraft fleet mix was conducted based on total statewide based aircraft in the preferred forecast, as well as growth rates provided in the FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2013 2033. For this forecast, it was assumed that different types of aircraft would grow at different rates. The FAA projects that jet aircraft will grow at a much faster rate than single and multi engine aircraft. Helicopters are also projected to grow at a substantially higher rate. Table 4 17 presents the projected based aircraft fleet mix in Ohio through 2032. Single engine aircraft, the largest share of the statewide fleet, are projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.36 percent, reaching 4,040 aircraft by 2032. Multi engine aircraft are only projected to grow at a rate of 0.1 percent annually, to a 2032 total of 466 aircraft. Jets are projected to experience the fastest growth at two percent annually, which results in a 2032 total of 468 aircraft. Helicopters are also projected to grow at a relatively high rate of 1.7 percent annually, resulting in 140 aircraft by 2032. All other types of aircraft are projected to grow at the national average of 1.13 percent annually, which totals 68 aircraft by 2032. Table 4 17 Projected Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Base Year Projected Aircraft Type 2012 2017 2022 2032 2012 2032 AAGR Single Engine 3,761 3,825 3,892 4,040 0.36% Multi Engine 457 457 460 466 0.10% Jets 315 353 392 468 2.00% Helicopters 100 110 120 140 1.70% Others 54 58 61 68 1.16% OHIO TOTAL 4,687 4,803 4,925 5,182 0.503% Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013 2033, CDM Smith Due to different growth rates being applied to different types of aircraft, shares of the statewide total are expected to be different in 2032 than they were in 2012. Exhibit 4 2 shows the percentage of total Ohio based aircraft for each type in 2032. Single engine aircraft while still the largest portion; will decrease to 78 percent of the statewide total. Multi engine aircraft will also decrease their share, falling to nine percent of the total. Jet aircraft are projected to just exceed multi engine aircraft but also accounting for nine percent of the total in 2032. The statewide share of helicopters OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 26

will increase to nine percent and, although increasing, the statewide percentage for other aircraft types will remain at a one percent share throughout the forecast period. 466 (9%) 468 (9%) Exhibit 4 2 Projected Based Aircraft Fleet Mix 2032 140 (3%) 68 (1%) Single Engine Multi Engine Jets Helicopters Others 4,040 (78%) Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013 2033, CDM Smith General Aviation Operations Projections Total annual operational demand can consist of several types of activity including air carrier, military, and general aviation. For those airports with scheduled commercial air service, air carrier (including major/national and regional/commuter operations) activity was projected separately in a previous section. For those airports with significant annual military operations, the military operations were subtracted from the total operational estimate, as were commercial operations, to arrive at a total annual general aviation activity level for each system airport. Only those airports that have air traffic control towers have data based on records of actual activity. Airports without a tower have provided estimates of operational activity. Therefore, annual operational estimates were developed through airport, FAA, and ODOT data. Bottom Up: Operations per Based Aircraft Methodology The bottom up methodology using operations per based aircraft (OPBA) was the first approach used to project general aviation operations for each of the system airports. Using this methodology, each airport s current (base year 2012) OPBA ratio is calculated. These ratios are then applied to the preferred based aircraft projection through 2032 to determine general aviation operations. As previously discussed, the preferred based aircraft projection was determined to be the bottom up methodology, which takes into consideration projections of both county population and national average active aircraft. This methodology assumes that the OPBA ratio remains constant throughout the planning period and operations only change when there is a change in based aircraft. When applied to each of Ohio s system airports, this methodology results in a statewide general aviation operations increase from 2,723,518 in 2012 to 2,993,000 in 2032. This represents an average growth rate of 0.47 percent annually. Table 4 18 identifies the projected general aviation operations for each of Ohio s system airports using this methodology. OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4 27