Trade Flows, Economic Development and Maritime Transport in Mediterranean area Luca Forte SRM Head of Med Observatory Naples, April 15th 2013
AGENDA The growing importance of Mediterranean Trade relations between EU countries and the Mediterranean area Italian business in the MED countries Maritime Transport in the Mediterranean Final remarks 1
The growing importance of Mediterranean The weight of the Mediterranean area on some global quantities 3.0% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% GDP EXPORT FDI 2001 2010 Source: SRM elaboration on IMF data (WEO october 2012) 2
The MED Area (in SRM-Med analysis) Southern Med: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt Eastern Med: Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey Adriatic Med: Albania, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro Med Area countries: per-capita GDP in 2011 US$ 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - SOUTHERN MED EASTERN MED ADRIATIC MED Source: SRM elaboration on IMF data (WEO october 2012) 3
AGENDA The growing importance of Mediterranean Trade relations between EU countries and Mediterranean area Italian business in the MED countries Maritime Transport in the Mediterranean Final remarks 4
Trade relations (import + export) between European countries and Non EU Med countries: Italy leader Italy s foreign trade with Non EU Med countries increased from 37.2 bn in 2001 to 67.5 bn in 2012 (+81.5%). Positive projections to 2014. bn 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Main European countries: Total trade with Non EU Med countries 37.2 31.5 30.1 14.8 13.5 Source: SRM elaboration on Eurostat data 67.5 59.7 48.5 36.3 25.3 Expected values 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ITALY FRANCE SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY 75.4 64.7 53.8 41.2 28.2 5
European countries: geographical distribution of trade flows within the Med Area History and geography count Main European countries: Total trade with the Med Area and the 3 sub-areas Year 2012 bn and sub-areas share (%) Southern Med (%) Eastern Med (%) Adriatic Med (%) Med Area ( bn) Italy 60.0 30.4 9.6 67.5 Germany 31.1 61.4 7.5 59.7 France 66.6 31.9 1.5 48.5 Spain 71.0 27.5 1.5 36.3 United Kingdom 35.5 63.1 1.4 25.3 Source: SRM elaboration on Eurostat data 6
Even excluding energy products, trade with Non EU Med countries grew in the 2001-2012 period: Italy rank 3rd among EU countries for Italy it amounted to 36.1 bn in 2012 (-2.9% compared to 2011), in line with the foreign trade of France ( 37.6 bn; +48.4% vs. 2001), as opposed to more significant growth for German trade ( 51.0 bn; +89.2% vs 2001). bn 60 50 40 30 27.0 25.4 20 23.3 10 12.4 8.7 Main European countries: Total trade, excluding energy products, with Non EU Med countries 51.0 37.6 36.1 22.7 Expected values Italy 56.9 41.5 39.9 26.2 20.0 22.3 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ITALY FRANCE SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY Source: SRM elaboration on Eurostat data 7
Almost 24% of Italian Exports to the Med Area is made up of energy products, compared to 0.6% of German Exports Italy exports refined petroleum products especially to Turkey ( 2.2 billion) and Libya ( 1.3 billion) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Italy and Germany: Exports to the Med Area and the 3 sub-areas Energy and Non-Energy products - bn Italy Germany Italy Germany Italy Germany ITALY GERMANY Southern Med Eastern Med Adriatic Med MED AREA NON ENERGY ENERGY Source: SRM elaboration on Eurostat data 8
AGENDA The growing importance of Mediterranean Trade relations between EU countries and Mediterranean area Italian business in the MED countries Maritime Transport in the Mediterranean Final remarks
SRM s «Business Project»: a survey on Italian Business in the Med Area countries A multi-year project that aims to estimate the value of Italian business presence in the Mediterranean countries THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT: From microeconomics to macroeconomics. Work carried out on the field. Western countries performances used as a benchmark.
ITALIAN BUSINESS IN TURKEY and MOROCCO
10 8 6 4 2 0 Real GDP growth rate 9.2 8.5 3.0 4.0 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Source: SRM on IMF World Outlook Oct.2012 Turkish Economy 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 46.2 35.0 Trade, bn -65.4 bn 184.1 2001 2012 Turkey Import Export 118.7 Source: SRM on UnctadSTAT Business structure Enterprises (%) by size 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 +186.5 bn 1,095 +11.2 bn 909 638 543 378 389 264 273 2001 2012 2001 2012 Italy Germany Import Export Italy 97.6 2.1 Germany 88.9 8.9 EU (27) 95.6 3.7 Turkey 97.9 1.8 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 Source: SRM on Eurostat and Turkstat Small and Micro Medium Large 12
Italian companies in Turkey generate 17,3 bn in revenue; +4.2% compared with 2011 (SRM estimate) Employees are about 130,250. There are more German companies (5,158) in Turkey than Italian ones (1,000). but the estimated turnover is lower ( 15,7 bn; +4.8% on Oct. 2012). Number of persons employed 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Italian and German Business in Turkey Italy: - Companies: 1,000 - Employees: 130,250 - Turnover: 17.3 bn Presence of a smaller number of companies but larger in size Germany: - Companies: 5,158 - Emloyees: 174,011 - Turnover: 15.7 bn Presence of a greater number of companies but smaller in size 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Number of enterprises Source: SRM on Ministry of Economy of the Rep. of Turkey and BV-DEP(Orbis) data
Business in Turkey: Italian and German companies performances The first three sectors as for Italian companies in Turkey (by Turnover) are: Motor vehicles (49.6%), Machinery (18.6%) and Rubber and Plastic (8.3%). As for German companies, Turnover is more proportionally distributed among the sectors; the first 3 sectors in terms of turnover are: Machinery and equipment (29.7%), Chemicals, (11.6%), Construction (7.4%). Growth and Profitability: Italian companies Turnover has grown more than German companies (respectively +33.5% and +21.7% between 2009 and 2010); but German companies are more profitable (25% was the RoE in 2010, while the Italian one was 20.8%). However, for both Italian and German companies, economic and financial performances are positive. Source: SRM elaboration on BV-DEP (ORBIS) data 14
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Real GDP growth rate 3.6 5 2.4 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Source: SRM on IMF World Outlook Oct.2012 Morocco Economy 4 50 40 30 20 10 0 12.3 8.0 Source: SRM on UnctadSTAT Business structure 31.6 2001 2011 Morocco Import Enterprises (%) by size Trade, bn -16.2 bn 15.4 Export 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-81.4 bn +11.2 bn 524 443 378 389 328 323 264 273 2001 2012 2001 2012 Italy France Import Export Italy France EU (27) 97.6 96.2 95.6 2.1 3.0 3.7 Morocco 75.5 17.0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Small and Micro Medium Large Source: SRM on Eurostat and Haut Commissariat au plan au Maroc data 15
Italian companies in Morocco generate 956.9m in revenue; Employees are about 7,000. There are more French companies (1,000) in Morocco than Italian companies (140). The estimated turnover of French companies ( 24.0 bn) is higher than the turnover generated by the Italian companies operating in Morocco ( 957 m) Number of persons employed 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Italian and French Business in Morocco Italy: - Companies: 140 - Employees: 7,000 - Turnover: 956.9 m France: - Companies: 1,000 - Employees: 115,000 - Turnover: 23,981 m 0-200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Number of companies Source: SRM elaborationon Association des Entreprises Italiennes au Maroc, Chambre Italienne de Commerce au Maroc, Ambassade de France au Maroc and Cribis D&B data
Business in Morocco: Italian and French companies comparison The first three sectors as for Italian companies in Morocco (by Turnover) are: Metals, machinery and motor vehicles (13.5%), Food and beverages (9.9%) and Textile and apparel (9.9%). As for French companies, the consulting servicies have the lion s share (23.3%), followed by Metals, machinery and motor vehicles (14%) and Electronics and ICT (12.4%). Italian companies Manufacturing: 45.4% Services: 46.1% Italian and French companies in Morocco Italian companies French companies Metals, Machinery and Motor vehicles 13.5% 14.0% Food and Beverage 9.9% 6.5% Textile and apperal 9.9% 6.5% Electronics and ICT 7.1% 12.4% Chemicals and Pharmaceutics 3.5% 8.5% Paper and print 1.4% 1.1% Mine and Building 8.5% 7.7% Wholesale and retail trade 9.2% 2.0% Culture and Turism 8.5% 1.5% Consulting services 6.4% 23.3% Transport and logistic 4.3% 5.3% Finance 2.8% 5.5% Utilities 0.7% 2.7% Other sectors 14.2% 3.0% TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPANIES 200 1,000 Source: SRM on Chambre de Commerce Italienne au Maroc and Ambassade de France au Maroc data French companies Manufacturing: 49.0% Services: 43.3% 17
AGENDA The growing importance of Mediterranean Trade relations between EU countries and Mediterranean area Italian business in MED countries Maritime Transport in the Mediterranean Final remarks
The increase of Italian maritime trade with the Non EU Med Countries Maritime trade accounts for 70.2% of total Italian trade with the Non EU Med Countries in 2012 Source: SRM elaboration on Istat data (2012)
Traffic trend in Mediterranean hubs 2011 Market shares in Mediterranean hubs 2005-2011 comparison Malta 11% Valencia 20% Pireaeus Cagliari 8% 3% 8% 16% 4% 8% 9% 0% 2005 4% Tanger Med 9% 20% 20% 10% Gioia Tauro 10% Port Said 17% Damietta 3% Taranto 3% Algeciras 16% Source: SRM on Assoporti and Port Authorities data, 2012 20
AGENDA The growing importance of Mediterranean Trade relations between EU countries and Mediterranean area Italian business in MED countries Maritime Transport in the Mediterranean Final remarks
In conclusion of the presentation I would like to express a hope for our Mezzogiorno
The weight of Eastern Europe on foreign trade of Southern Italy and Germany 12.0 10.0 10.5 8.0 6.0 4.0 3.8 2.0 0.0 East Europe * Mezzogiorno Germany
The weight of the Med Area on foreign trade of Southern Italy and Germany 14.0 12.0 12.4 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.9 2.0 0.0 Med Area Mezzogiorno Germany
Thanks for your attention