Welcome to MENASA Middle East, North East Africa, South West Asia Eelco Dijkstra Senior Strategy Consultant June, 2014 Buck Consultants International The Netherlands Phone : +31 24 379 02 22 Mobile: +31 6 24661688
Linking Strategy to Execution Management Consulting in Supply Chain Strategy Go to market strategy Business Process Design Network Optimisation Network(re)design Impact key drivers Procurement & Tender Management Implementation Change mngt support Coaching Supply Chain Data, Modelling and Analysis Buck Consultants International, 2014 1
Volume Development Europe Where is the business going? 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 - Development N. European Ports in TEU 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Rotterdam Hamburg Antwerpen Bremen Buck Consultants International, 2014 2
What s going on? Changes to trade flows into Europe. North European Ports no longer only option into EMEA Lower growth consumer demand Northern Europe Buck Consultants International, 2014 3
Economic Shift from EMEA to MENASA Economic growth within the EMEA and Central Asia (CA) has shifted from West to East Growing Middle Class and Rising Prosperity Economic opportunities will increase towards the MENASA Dubai s natural catchment area extending from UAE to MENASA and even to being part of a global logistics hub Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova Population: 201 million Economic growth 2013: 2.7% (avg.) Economic growth 2019: 2.2% (avg.) Europe Population: 489 million Economic growth 2013: 1.9% (avg.) Economic growth 2019: 3.8% (avg.) Source: IMF 2014 MENASA Population: 2,272 million (1,030 million excl. India) Economic growth 2013 : 5.4% (avg.) Economic growth 2019 : 7.1% (avg.) Buck Consultants International, 2014 4
Trade Flow and Distribution Changes The Middle East, Eastern Africa and the Indian region will grow naturally into its own distribution cluster for logistics services and distribution. Distribution for this region will gradually change from being serviced as part of the EMEA region - typically from EDC s in Western Europe - to having its own stand alone distribution model in which Dubai is well positioned as logistics and distribution gateway. Traditional trade flow where goods into the EMEA region first travel to a DC in the EU and from there are distributed into the region. Future trade flows where the EMEA distribution model will split up into new regions including the MENASA. Buck Consultants International, 2014 5
Replenishment will shift away from NL Netherlands past 20 years distribution hub into Europe Future direction: Inventory volumes for Russia, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa will move closer to markets Western Europe Russia & CIS Africa Middle East Buck Consultants International, 2014 6
Changing World Welcome to MENASA MENASA region: emerging economic zone made up of the Middle East, North-East Africa, and South-West Asia Combined GDP > 5,5 trillion USD (2011) Fastest growing region 30% of global population 51% under 25 years 55% global oil reserves (2011) The Americas EMEA APAC Buck Consultants International, 2014 7
MENASA FACTS Buck Consultants International, 2014 8
Flight Times From Dubai Connecting the World As a growing distribution hub for the MENASA region, Dubai connects intercontinental hubs to regional distribution points Key Indian cities can also be reached from Dubai in less than 3 hours = within 1 hr = within 1-3 hrs = within 3-6 hrs Buck Consultants International, 2014 9
GDP Growth MENASA accounted for 9% of total world GDP in 2013 This will increase to 10% by 2019 MENASA economic growth outpaces developed economies and even older emerging markets like Turkey, Brazil and Russia. 8% * 7% 6% GDP growth to 2019 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% MENA KSA UAE TR RU BR NL IN FR E-AFT Source: Worldbank 2014 Buck Consultants International, 2014 10
Top 10 Cargo Airports in the World 4.500.000 4.000.000 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 Millions tonnes Source: CAPA, 2013 Buck Consultants International, 2014 11
number of TEU* (x 1,000) Dubai Largest Non Asian Sea-Port 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 * TEU = Twenty-foot Equivalent Units, 2013 Buck Consultants International, 2014 12
MENASA - Young and Populous Region MENASA region is young: India accounts for 20%, MENA for 5% and East Africa for another 5% of all the children in the world 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Children (0-14 yr) in Million 100+ 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 MENASA Age distribution 100+ 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 European Union Age distribution 0-4 0% 5% 10% Source: Worldbank, IMF, BCI 0-4 0% 5% 10% Source: Census Buck Consultants International, 2014 13
Ease of Doing Business Singapore Hong Kong New Zealand USA Denmark Malaysia South Korea Georgia Norway UK UAE KSA Netherlands France Turkey China Brazil Ethiopia Kenya India Tanzania Sudan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23 26 28 38 96 Doing business in United Arabic Emirates and Saudi Arabia is easier than in Netherlands or France India and East Africa has its challenges Ease of doing business ranking Source: Doing business report/ World Bank 2014 116 125 129 134 145 149 Buck Consultants International, 2014 14
Gulf Co-Operation Council GCC Our Main Focus cluster High prosperity Cultural similarity Islamic sensitive Strong international accounts Big retail square meters Excessive spending Total population: 41M Total children: 11M Average GDP (PPP): 49K USD GCC Kids Population Mil. Primary Focus Countries: United Arab Emirates Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) 10,0 5,0 0,0 7,8 1,1 1,0 0,7 0,4 0,3 KSA UAE Oman Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Buck Consultants International, 2014 15
PORTS AND CONNECTIVITY Buck Consultants International, 2014 16
Dubai/UAE as MENASA Gateway Global Ranking: # 3 Airport in passenger numbers # 5 Airport in freight # 9 Seaport in TEU May 2014, Dubai launches World Free Zones Organisation #1 Globally Dubai Buck Consultants International, 2014 17
Strong Infrastructure Developments The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plan to invest USD 968 billion in major projects over the next ten years. This investment includes 1,638 projects Just for roads and railways, the oil-rich countries plan to direct $ 97 billion from 2011 to 2020, U.S. $ 79 billion for rail, including trains, subways and trams. The most ambitious project, valued at U.S. $ 30 billion, is the railroad that will connect all the countries of the GCC, For roads construction, investments are put at $ 18 billion. Istanbul Mersin Haifa Damietta Alexandria Port Said Amman Airport Seaport Buck Consultants International, 2014 18 Jeddah Kuwait Dammam Aden Riyadh Bandar Abbas Bahrai n Doha Salalah Sohar
DISTRIBUTION BUSINESS CASE Buck Consultants International, 2014 19
Industry Characteristics and Trends Demand Shift away from Matured Markets Higher GDP growth in Middle East, South Asia and Africa vs Europe and US Shifts in demand New challenges and opportunities in supply set up Source: Euromonitor International Buck Consultants International, 2014 20
Focus is on Accelerated Growth Business Challenge is how to facilitate high growth coming 10-20 years in MENASA region? Distribution Model as Enabler to growth: Re-assess commercial model region Develop regional inventory replenishment point Develop regional distribution capabilities with partners Buck Consultants International, 2014 21
EMEA Multi Hub Distribution Concept Catchment area from Benelux hub Catchment area Central EMEA distribution hub Hubs replenished directly from production sources Catchment area Dubai Hub Buck Consultants International, 2014 22
Dubai as MENASA Gateway Amsterdam Rotterdam Airfreight MENASA Dubai Shanghai Dubai is located mid way between Asia and W. Europe. Lead-times: Traditional: 30-40 days Alternative: 15-18 days Seafreight Goods via Northern Europe travel twice 50% too far using the traditional model Traditional route: Asia Rotterdam/Amsterdam EMEA DC air or sea freight back to Middle East for distribution Alternative route: Asia Dubai DC distribution MENASA region Buck Consultants International, 2014 23
Integrated Supply Chain Cost in M$ Life Sciences: MENASA Hubs replenished directly from production sources MENASA Region Catchment area Central EMEA distribution hub 25 20 21% cost saving 15 10 Outbound Pick DC Occupancy Pick DC Labor Inbound W Europe N America AMS Hub MENASA Region 5 W Europe N America DXB Hub MENASA Region - Dubai Amsterdam Buck Consultants International, 2014 24
Integrated Supply Chain Cost in M$ India from Dubai v Europe 7 6 5 4 3 33% lower Outbound cost Pick DC Occupancy Pick DC Labor Catchment area ME Hub 2 Inbound cost W Europe N America ME Hub India 1 - Dubai Amsterdam Weighted Ave Hub to Market lead-time Lead-times out of Dubai are much shorter due to the close proximity of Dubai to India. Due to cold chain requirements much easier to manage frequent order patterns out of Dubai than out of Amsterdam (again due to close proximity). Holding inventory in Dubai allows companies to route orders directly to key Indian cities/states due to the excellent connectivity between Dubai and Indian cities. Using Dubai v in-country storage allows companies to bypass local Indian bureaucracy and infrastructure bottlenecks. Buck Consultants International, 2014 25
Take Aways Dynamics of the EMEA region is changing due to upcoming Emerging Regions and demographic changes. In the Healthcare sector the MENASA region will show HIGH growth as more and more people get access to doctors, medicines and hospital care. Accelerated growth model requires ability to fulfil orders quickly and more frequently whilst managing distribution costs. Holding an inventory point in the region in combination with postponement concepts will support growth model. Buck Consultants International, 2014 26
Contact details Buck Consultants International Eelco Dijkstra Senior Strategy Consultant T: +31 24 3790222 M: +31 624661688 E-mail: eelco.dijkstra@bciglobal.com Buck Consultants International, 2014 27
ANNEX Buck Consultants International, 2014 28
India Population: 1,242 million (74x Netherlands) GDP: USD 1,871 B (2.3x Neth.) Economic growth 2013 : 5.9% (in USD) Economic growth 2019 : 8.4% (in USD) Delhi Mumbai Calcutta Buck Consultants International, 2014 29
India: middle class driver for retail growth Population (in M) 1.500 1.000 500 0 Poor Retail sales (in B USD) 518 Middle class 50 100 869 200 1.748 2012 2015 2020 325 2012 2015 2020 2025 2 nd largest population, forecasted to be number 1 in 2028 overtaking China Strong developing Middle class, expected to grow to over 300 million in 2025 Resulting in increased retail spending. 2015: India = 7 x Dutch retail spending Carrefour, Metro, Tesco, and Walmart have recently entered the Indian Market Source: Deloitte 2013, UN, IEMS, BCI Buck Consultants International, 2014 30
India: growth also translates into healthcare spending Healthcare as percentage of GDP (2012) 20% 18% 15% 10% 10% 9% 10% 6% 5% 4% 0% US EU World Brazil Turkey India Healthcare spending is low as a percentage of GDP compared to other countries Healthcare is forecasted to show strong growth growing to US$ 276 Billion in 2020 Healthcare spending (in B USD) 300 276 200 160 100 79 100 0 2012 2015 2017 2020 Source: Worldbank 2014, IBEF 2014, BCI Buck Consultants International, 2014 31
India: explosive growth in E-commerce Number of people below the age of 35 to reach 828 Mn by 2015 Favored Demographics Growing Smart Phone Adoption ~450 Mn smartphone users to by 2015 ~100 Mn 3G users by 2015 Huge Retail Industry ~USD 900 Bn worth retail sector by 2016-17 Current contribution of online sales: only 0.47% USD 125-260 Bn Indian e-commerce revenue projected to reach USD 125-260 Bn for the year 2024-25 Current revenue: USD 10 Bn Growing Internet User Base ~376 Mn unique internet users by 2015 Current users: 120 Mn Source: Zinnov, BCI Buck Consultants International, 2014 32