Market Updates: 6 th Feb 2018 India to import about 150,000 tn wheat from Black Sea region this month. About 150,000 tn of wheat from the Black Sea region is expected to reach the southern ports of India this month, despite higher import duty. Three vessels (carrying 45,000-50,000 tn wheat each) are destined to Tuticorin port in Tamil Nadu this month; one of these was diverted from Bangladesh. The Black sea region comprises Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. A shipment of 50,000 tn wheat had recently arrived at Karaikal port in Puducherry. Deals for these imports were signed before the government had raised import duty on wheat. NCDEX wheat down 1% as demand weak, supply seen high. Wheat futures on the NCDEX fell 1% as demand remained weak while supplies are seen rising when harvesting begins in March. The sentiment in wheat market is bearish as demand is very weak and hopes of import duty hike are also dying down. While supplies from the last season are already high, next crop is round the corner and there are concerns of a supply glut when harvesting starts. Saudi Arabia's SAGO pays $10 more at milling wheat tender. Saudi Arabia s state grain importer SAGO bought 739,000 MT of milling wheat at tender at almost $10 more than at its previous tender. SAGO bought 12 cargoes at an average price of $241.60/mt CIF an increase of $9.63/mt since buying 495,000 mt at its previous wheat tender, which closed on Dec 4. Prices ranged from $232.69-$245.42/mt CIF, with seven multinational trade houses and cooperatives involved ADM, Cargill, Casillo, Holbud, InVivo, Olam, and Soufflet. SAGO is responsible for all 3.5 million mt per year of Saudi Arabia s wheat imports. Its buying activity jumped in the late 2000s after it started to wind down domestic wheat production which relied on a costly irrigation programme. According to SAGO, annual imports jumped from 303,500 MT in 2008 to 1.92 million mt to a high of 3.8 million mt in 2016, with 2018 imports forecast to reach 3.7 MMT. Brazil wheat output to fall in 2017-18. Brazil s 2017-18 wheat production is forecast at 4.3 million tonnes, down sharply from the previous estimate due to larger-than-expected losses from drought and frost conditions during critical development stages of the crop. If realized, it will be a 36% decline from the country s 2016-17 wheat output of 6.73 million tonnes. Wheat imports for 2017-18 are forecast at an increased level of 8 million tonnes, reflecting the decrease in domestic production. Iran wheat, flour exported to Oman, Italy, Iraq. round 28,500 and 31,500 tons of wheat were exported to Oman and Italy respectively from Khuzestan Province during the first 10 months of the current Iranian year (March 21, 2017-Jan. 20, 2018). An official with the Government Trading Corporation of Iran, said 28,000 tons of flour were exported to Iraq from the southern province over the same period. By applying proper packaging and speeding up customs procedures for Khuzestan s flour, we were able to get ahead of our main rival, Turkey, in the Iraqi market. During the wheat crop season, Khuzestan topped the list of Iranian wheat-producing provinces with 1.7 million tons. Russian wheat exports slip to 6-mth low as ministry plans sell-off. Sales of Russian wheat have slowed for the third consecutive week, posting the lowest weekly figure since July 2017. Weekly wheat sales of 466,000 mt were the lowest of the 2017/18 marketing year since the week ending July 30 and were 47,000 mt lower than during the same week in the 2016/17 marketing year. Page 1 of 6
Pakistani wheat sold for export under state incentive programme. Pakistani wheat has been sold to overseas buyers in Asia and Africa after the country started a new state export incentive programme. Sales for break bulk shipment have been made to Kenya, Bangladesh and Indonesia at $188 to $192.50 a tonne FOB Pakistani ports. Sales for shipment in containers have been made to Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Djibouti at around $195 to $198 a tonne FOB Pakistani ports. CBOT wheat (in cents/bushel) as on: 5 th February 2018: Weak sentiments witnessed in market. Month Open High Low Close Change Mar-18 443.3 445.8 438.8 440.3-6.5 May-18 456.3 458.8 451.8 452.5-7.3 Jul-18 470.3 473.0 465.5 467.0-6.5 Sep-18 484.0 487.0 479.8 481.3-6.3 Dec-18 503.5 505.5 498.5 500.0-6.3 Mar-19 516.0 519.3 513.8 514.8-6.0 Wheat FOB (USD/MT) Origin- Variety 05-02-2018 02-02-2018 Ukraine-11.5%-SRW 185 185 Ukraine-12.5%-SRW 193-194 193-194 Russia-12.5 193 193 Romania Feed 178-180 178-180 France-feed 178-180 178-180 Germany-Feed 178-180 178-180 Argentina 12% 176 176 Australia -APW 240 240 USA-SRW 183 183 Australian Wheat FOB at CBOT (In USD/MT) Month 05-02-2018 04-02-2018 Feb-18 238.75 239 Mar-18 239.75 239.5 Apr-18 240.5 241 May-18 240.75 240.25 Jun-18 241 240.5 Jul-18 240.75 240.5 Aug-18 241 240.5 Sep-18 241.25 240.5 Oct-18 241.5 240.5 Nov-18 241.5 240.5 Page 2 of 6
Dec-18 241.5 240.5 Jan-19 241.5 240.5 Eastern Australian Wheat (In AUD/MT) Month 05-02-2018 04-02-2018 Mar-18 265 267 May-18 267.3 266.5 Jul-18 270.5 269.7 Sep-18 270.5 269.7 Jan-19 275 273.5 Jan-20 281.7 280.2 Jan-21 281.7 280.2 WA Wheat Futures (In AUD/MT) Month 05-02-2018 04-02-2018 Mar-18 332 332 May-18 332 332 Jul-18 332 332 Sep-18 332 332 Jan-19 352.5 352.5 Jan-20 352.5 352.5 Jan-21 352.5 352.5 Currency Reference: Currency Vs INR 06-02-2018 05-02-2018 USD 64.3 65.0 GBP 89.7 90.4 EURO 79.5 79.7 YEN 59.1 58.2 NCDEX Wheat Future (in INR /Qtl.) as on 6 th Feb 2018: Market witnessed weak sentiments in nearby contract. ExpiryDate `+/- Open High Low Close Vol OI Basis (Spot- Future) Calendar Spread (Near Month-Far Month) 20-Feb-18-18 1652 1652 1627 1639 820 4330 139.0 NA 20-Mar-18-8 1681 1683 1670 1674 870 2390 104.0-35 20-Apr-18 - - - - 1664 0 0 114.0 10 18-May-18 - - - - 1672 0 0 106.0-8 20-Jun-18 - - - - 1682 0 0 96.0-10 *Exp. Dt. = Contract Expiry Date Page 3 of 6
NCDEX Spot Price (in INR. /Qtl.): Mostly weak witnessed in the spot markets. Location 06-02-2018 05-02-2018 Delhi 1778 1783 Indore 1678 1675 Kanpur 1700 1700 Rajkot 1650 1655 NCDEX Wheat Stock position* at approved warehouses (Quantity in MT) Location 05-02-2018 04-02-2018 Kota 5074 5074 Total 5074 5074 *(total quantity including quantity in progress) NCDEX Wheat EDD Wise Stock Position (Quantity in MT) Location EDD 05-02-2018 29-01-2018 Kota 05-Apr-18 5074 5603 Total 5074 5603 Wheat Prices in Domestic Markets (in INR /Qtl.): Mostly weak movement witnessed in the market. State Market Variety Feb 06 Feb 05 Tamil Nadu Madurai Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 2112 2117 Tamil Nadu Chennai Lokwan (Mill Delivery) 2160 2150 Gujrat Surat Mill Quality (Loose) 1775 1815 Tamil Nadu Madurai Lokwan (Mill Delivery) 2190 2195 Gujarat Ahmedabad Mill Quality (Loose) 1750 1785 Delhi Delhi (Narella) FAQ 1685 1680 Delhi Delhi (Lawrence Road) FAQ 1775 1780 Delhi Delhi (Najafgarh) FAQ 1695 1700 Madhya Pradesh Indore Mill Quality (Loose) 1640 1640 Madhya Pradesh Indore Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 1720 1725 Uttar Pradesh Hapur Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 1735 Madhya Pradesh Bhopal FAQ 1655 1645 Uttar Pradesh Mathura FAQ 1625 1615 Madhya Pradesh Indore Lokwan (Loose) 2010 2010 Rajasthan Alwar Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 1625 Tamil Nadu Coimbatore Lokwan (Mill Delivery) 2190 2190 Haryana Dabwali Mill Quality (Loose) 1715 1735 Rajasthan Kota FAQ 1565 1555 Page 4 of 6
Uttar Pradesh Kosi FAQ 1620 1620 Punjab Khanna FAQ 1735 1725 Uttar Pradesh Kanpur Mill Quality (Loose) 1635 1635 Uttar Pradesh Kanpur Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 1715 1725 Uttar Pradesh Bareilly FAQ 1705 1705 Tamil Nadu Coimbatore Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 2097 2102 Rajasthan Bharatpur Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 1615 1625 Madhya Pradesh Ujjain Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 1605 1600 Tamil Nadu Chennai Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 2050 2060 Haryana Hodal Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 1630 1630 Gujarat Rajkot Mill Quality (Mill Delivery) 1665 1700 Gujarat Rajkot Mill Quality (Loose) 1565 1600 Haryana Panipat Mill Quality (Loose) 1630 1615 Wheat Port Line Ups as on 30 January 2018 PORT STATUS VESSEL NAME ETA QTY MTS LOADPORT RECEIVER CHARTERER TUTICORIN ANCHORAGE RIVA WIND (SHIFTED TO ANCHORAGE) 12.12.17 21036 YUZHNY, UKRAINE SHADI RAM & SONS TBA MANGALORE SAILED N I L ETC = Expected Time of Cargo, QTY MT = Quantity in MT IMP/EXP = Import/Export India Weather Updates: Winter Monsoon Rainfall (in mm) from 01 January to 31 January 2018 Region Actual Normal % Departure from Long Period Average All India 2.9 19.2-85 East & Northeast India 7.1 21.1-66 Northwest India 3.4 36.9-91 Central India 0.0 8.0-100 South Peninsula 3.6 7.8-54 Ukraine Wheat Price (In RPH/MT) Market Variety 15-01-2018 14-01-2018 Kiev (Київська) 2kl 5170 5170 3kl 5000 5000 6kl 4850 4850 Page 5 of 6
Cherkasy (Черкаська) Poltava (Полтавська) Kirovograd (Кіровоградська) Dnipropetrovsk (Дніпропетровська) Mykolaiv (Миколаївська) Vinnytsia (Вінницька) Volyn (Волинська) Lviv (Львівська) Ivano-Frankivsk (Івано-Франківська) 2kl 5200 5200 3kl 5050 5050 6kl 4830 4830 2kl 5190 5190 3kl 5000 5000 6kl 4830 4830 2kl 5150 5150 3kl 5020 5020 6kl 4900 4900 2kl 5200 5200 3kl 4980 4980 6kl 4800 4800 2kl 5450 5450 3kl 5320 5320 6kl 5200 5200 2kl 5080 5080 3kl 4910 4910 6kl 4700 4700 2kl 4820 4820 3kl 4610 4610 6kl 4460 4460 2kl 4880 4880 3kl 4760 4760 6kl 4500 4500 2kl 4560 4560 3kl 4940 4940 6kl 4790 4790 3kl 4700 4700 6kl 4560 4560 Page 6 of 6