Embassy of Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela José Sojo Reyes Minister Counselor Chief of Economic Affairs
Venezuela is the third USA Trade Partner in Latin America Total Trade - EEUU main trade partners in latinoamerica (MM US$) 2002-2004 2004 Country 2002 2003 2004 Mexico 220.197 220.307 247.977 Brazil 26.817 27.665 33.560 Venezuela 18.491 19.313 28.922 Colombia 8.728 9.843 11.506 Chile - 6.422 8.243 Source: United States International Trade Commission
Venezuela is the sixteenth USA trade partner worldwide Venezuela: Sixteenth position in total trade Year Rank Total Trade (US$ Millions) 1998 21 1999 23 2000 17 2001 19 2002 20 2003 19 2004 16 15,138 15,598 22,737 19,561 18,491 19,313 28,922 Source: United States International Trade Commission
US Venezuela trade parnership is even larger than the one between US and Belgium, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and India Position Country Imports Exports Balance MM USA$ 1 Canada 255.660 163.168-92.492 2 Mexico 154.959 93.018-61.941 3 China 196.160 32.606-163.553 4 Japan 129.535 50.493-79.042 5 Germany 75.622 27.223-48.399 6 United Kingdom 45.920 31.734-14.186 7 Korea 45.064 24.995-20.070 8 Taiwan 34.462 20.343-14.119 9 France 31.505 19.626-11.879 10 Malaysia 28.070 9.985-18.085 11 Italy 27.975 9.852-18.124 12 Ireland 27.401 7.615-19.786 13 Netherlands 12.471 22.462 9.991 14 Brazil 21.098 12.462-8.636 15 Singapore 14.848 17.850 3.001 16 Venezuela 24.440 4.482-19.957 17 Belgium 12.365 14.846 2.481 18 Saudi Arabia 20.434 4.678-15.755 19 Thailand 17.510 5.837-11.673 20 Hong Kong 9.241 11.984 2.743 21 Australia 7.564 13.474 5.910 22 India 15.503 5.295-10.208 Source: United States International Trade Commission
US Venezuela strong trade partnership VALUE VENEZUELAN NON OIL EXPORTS BY DESTINY COUNTRY 2004 (%) Value of non oil exports by country of destination 2004 22.7 COUNTRIES MillIons US$ Relative Share (%) 6.0 14.5 COLOMBIA UNITED STATES 39.8 United States 2,712 39.8 Colombia 985 14.5 Mexico 407 6.0 Ecuator 281 4.1 Netherlands 256 3.8 Japan 192 2.8 Brazil 132 1.9 Italy 111 1.6 Peru 106 1.6 Dominican Republic 77 1.1 Others 1,548 22.7 TOTAL 6,807 100.0 United States Colombia Mexico Equador Netherlands Japan Brazil Italy Peru Dominican Republic Other
Venezuela: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product 40 3 5. 0 30 20 14. 2 14. 3 12. 1 11. 1 10 5. 4 3. 6 3. 7 3. 3 2. 3 2. 1 5. 6 2. 1 6. 6 7. 5 0-10 -20 2005-4.4-5.9-8.7-15.8-5.0-7.1-30 - 2 4. 9 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II II IV I II 2000 2 00 1 2 00 2 2003 2 0 04 2005 Source: Venezuela Central Bank
Venezuela: higher worldwide GDP growth in 2004 18.0 17.8 14.0 Percentage (%) 10.0 6.0 2.0 0.3 4.2 4.0-2.0-6.0-10.0-6.0-6.9-7.5 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Venezuela Central Bank
Oil market prices in favor of economic recovery Daily Oil Market Prices 70.00 60.00 BRENT WEST TEXAS OPEC 50.00 53.72 40.00 30.00 20.00 Source: REUTERS
In one year more than seventy seven percent growth rate Financial Market: Loan Portfolio August 2005 Bs. 28.0 Billion 25 20 August 2004 Bs.15.8 Billion 15 10 5 0 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Source: SUDEBAN
Delinquency rates in the financial system tend to be reduced (%) 9 Delinquency Rates 8 7.5 7 6 5 4.6 4 2.8 3 2 1.74 1.43 1 0 Percentage Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Source: SUDEBAN
A great recovery of the stock market index 35,000 Stock Market Index 30,000 25,000 Dec. 31st 04 29,952.18 20,000 15,000 Dec. 31st 03 22,203.95 10,000 8,015.17 5,000 Oct. 10th 05 19,881.00 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 I n d e x 5 Source: Caracas Stock Exchange
Tendency monthly inflation rate is below of previous average 6.0 5.5 Monthly Inflation 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 2.9 1.9 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 JAN-03 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC JAN-04 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC JAN-05 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP Percentage (%) Source: Venezuela Central Bank
39.0 37.0 35.0 33.0 31.0 29.0 27.0 25.0 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 Average annual inflation rate keeps going down Annual Inflation 38.7 33.8 17.4 16.0 14.9 JAN-03 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC JAN-04 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC JAN-05 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP Source: Venezuelan Central Bank Percentage (%)
Declining interests rate are in favor of investment growth Interest Rate 45 35.79 40 35 Spread 10.13 T. ACTIVAS T. PASIVAS 30 Percentage 25.66 25 20 15 Spread 3.25 14.26 10 11.01 5 1/3/03 3/3/03 5/3/03 7/3/03 9/3/03 11/3/03 1/3/04 3/3/04 5/3/04 7/3/04 9/3/04 11/3/04 1/3/05 3/3/05 5/3/05 7/3/05 9/3/05 Source: Venezuela Central Bank Active and passive rates correspond to the average of the six largest banks in Venezuela. Avereage passive rates correspond to the rate paid for 90- day deposits.
International reserves: 30 billion and still growing 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 Total International Reserves 30.890 FEM 725 MMUS$ 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 Oct. 07 th 2005 BCV Reserves 30.165 Source: Venezuelan Central Bank
Unemployment rate tends to decrease 22 20 Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Start Chávez Government Oil Sabotage 20,7 Coup d état 18 16,6 15,9 17,1 16 15,5 14 14,6 14,2 12,6 12 10 11,0 8 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99 Nov-99 Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 % Source: (INE) Processed by MPD 12,1
Lower than the historic average VENEZUELA COUNTRY RISK Basic Points 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 911.300 1087.030 328.000 Source: Reuters
Construction will be a leading sector in the year 2005 Thousands of Tones CEMENT SALES Thousands of Tones 800.0 700.0 "Monthly Sales "Annual Sales 8,500.0 8,055.7 8,000.0 660.7 600.0 7,500.0 500.0 7,000.0 6,500.0 400.0 6,000.0 300.0 5,500.0 200.0 5,000.0 100.0 4,500.0 0.0 4,000.0 Jan 03 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DIC Jan-04 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DIC Jan-05 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP "Source: Venezuelan Cement Association (AVPC)
Sales growth leads to investment in the automobile industry Automobile Sales Units 210,000 23,000 Monthly Sales Annual Sales 195,752 190,000 18,000 19,263 16,849 170,000 17,587 150,000 13,000 130,000 112,373 110,000 8,000 90,000 70,000 3,000 50,000 Jan-03 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC Jan-04 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC Jan-05 FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP Units Source: CAVENEZ
Electricity consumption at good proxy of GDP growth Thousands of Kw /h ELECTRICITY MONTHLY CONSUMPTION Thousands of Kw /h 10,000 Monthly Consumption Annual Consumption 101,532.7 9,500 100,000 9,000 8,716.9 8,500 95,000 8,000 7,500 88,472.1 7,000 6,760.9 90,000 6,500 6,000 85,000 5,500 5,000 80,000 Source: Oficina de Operación de los Sistemas Interconectados (OPSIS)
Increasing export share to the Latin America region Venezuela: Non-oil oil exports to Latin america, 2000-2004 6000 5000 5156 4617 4000 3724 3951 3778 MM US$ 3000 2000 1781 1808 1770 1504 2190 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 LATIN AMERICA OTHER COUNTRIES Source: SENIAT By the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), International Trade Program
Increasing import share to the Latin America region 14,000 Venezuela: Non oil imports from Latin America, 2000-2004 12,000 10,000 11,051 11,872 8,529 10,014 MM US$ 8,000 6,000 4,000 3,533 4,564 3,145 2,510 5,827 5,148 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 LATIN AMERICA OTHER COUNTRIES Source: SENIAT By the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), International Trade Program
Venezuelan Exports by Economic Sector SECTOR EXPORTS ACCORDING TO ECONOMIC SECTOR (1)/* JANUARY-DECEMBER 2003-2004 2003 Participation 2004 Participation Variation (%) Million US $ % Million US $ % 2004/2003 1 2 3 4 3/1 TOTAL 5,282 100.0 6,807 100.0 28.9 Vegetal Products I 103 2.0 136 2.0 32.3 Foodstuffs and Bevarages and Tobacco 165 3.1 157 2.3 (4.8) Mineral Products (1) 1,030 19.5 1,054 15.5 2.3 Chemical Products 833 15.8 953 14.0 14.4 Plastics and Manufactures 149 2.8 240 3.5 61.1 Base Metals (2) 2,003 37.9 3,169 46.6 58.2 Electrical Equipment 223 4.2 248 3.6 11.2 Transport Equipment 455 8.6 482 7.1 5.9 (1) Includes oil exports of private sector (*) Provisional 1/: It does not include exports of Oil and Steel of Public Sector Source: SENIAT - Processed by Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), International Trade Program
Non oil export increased by twenty nine percent in 2004 NON OIL EXPORTS ACCORDING TO ECONOMIC SECTOR, 2004 Non-oil exports according to Economic Sector, 2004 14.0 3.5 SECTORS Millions US$ Participation (%) 15.5 2.3 2.0 7.1 3.6 46.6 5.4 Vegetal Products Food, Beverages and Tobacco Mineral Products Chemical Products Plastics and Manufactures Base Metals (2) Electrical Equiment Transport Equipment Others Vegetal Products 136 2.0 Foods, Beverages and Tobacco 157 2.3 Mineral Products 1,054 15.5 Chemical Products 953 14.0 Plastics and Manufactures 240 3.5 Base Matals 3,169 46.6 Electrical Equipment 248 3.6 Transport Equipment 482 7.1 Others 368 5.4 TOTAL 6,807 100.0 Source: SENIAT By the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), International Trade Program
Main Exports non oil products Metals: Steel, Iron and Aluminum Organic and inorganic Chemicals: Main Products MTBE, methanol, benzene, cumene and para-xylen. Ethylene, propane, ethane and butane. Ammonia, silicon carbides, acrylic ethers, carbon black, artificial corundum. Urea, tires for motor vehicles. Fish and Crustaceans: Shrimp, Crab and fish Vehicles, Parts and Accessories: Parts and accessories for motor vehicles, breaks Gold and precious metals: Gold Electrical Machinery and equipment: Electric Conductors, electric ranges and ovens. Carbon Electrodes Apparatus and parts of machinery: Industrial and laboratory ovens. Gas turbines parts. Manufactured Articles Food Stuffs: Beverages and Tobacco
This means investing in people capability Social expenditure as a percentage of GDP 14 12 11,8 12,3 11,8 10 9,4 9,7 9,5 10,7 9,0 10,9 8 6 7,6 8,1 7,5 7,6 7,1 7,8 Source: - Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto (ONAPRE) - Venezuela Central Bank
Our goal is zero illiteracy Robinson I y II Missions 1.600.000 1.436.000 1.471.332 1.260.711 Persons 1.200.000 800.000 639.308 621.403 400.000 56.542 0 Robinson I Robinson II Source: Presidential Message 2004
A path for human development Human Development Index 0,9000 0,8536 0,8500 0,8000 0,8209 0,7704 0,7989 0,7500 0,7839 0,7648 0,7000 0,7370 0,6911 0,6917 0,6500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (INE)-Venezuela
Social Missions: healthcare for social inclusion Barrio Adentro Mission to Dec-2004 8.500 1.415 10.732 85.5 MM 17 MM 457 20.000 Visions Centers Dental Clinics Medical Offices doctors Dentists and Nurses Total Population Benefited Total medical Office visits Medical Assistance Created Services and Benefits Source: Presidential Message 2004
Joint effort in health and food security Misions dedicated to heathcare and food distribution Programs Barrio Adentro Mission People Benefited 18 MM Percentage of the Population 69.23 Mercal Mission 11.2 MM 43.07 Source: MERCAL, MSDS, MED, INE MERCAL Mission serves to 77,2% of the poor. Venezuela s population in the 2004 is 26.127.351 people
Enrollment in elementary school and Pre- school Enrollment in Elementary School and Pre-School Rate Rate of Enrollment Elementary School Rate of Enrollment Pre-school Percentage 75 67 59 51 43 35 57.0 40.6 57.3 55.1 43.8 42.3 55.7 44.4 59.9 57.0 50.1 48.1 6 2.4 62.3 51.7 52.8 70.0 Source : Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deportes (MECD), Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE)