Dealing with the Gathering Clouds Regional Economic Outlook for sub-saharan Africa Christian Beddies Resident Representative, Zimbabwe International Monetary Fund November 11, 2015 1
Percent Growth in sub-saharan Africa has weakened markedly 8 Real GDP Growth, 2004 15 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Average 2004 08 2009 Average 2010 14 2015 2
but there is significant heterogeneity within the region 2015 Growth Forecast Below 4 percent Between 4 and 5 percent Above 5 percent 3
Outline External headwinds Domestic environment and outlook Policy implications 4
Three key factors have underpinned the solid performance of the last decade Better policies and institutions Capital Inflows High Commodity Prices 5
Iron ore Crude oil Natural gas Coal Copper Gold Cotton Coffee Tea Cocoa Percent change from January 2013 Of late, two of these factors have become less supportive. Commodity prices have weakened 60 Selected Commodity Prices, Jan 2013 Aug 2015 40 20 0-20 -40-60 2016 projections -80 6
and financing conditions are tightening Zambia Gabon Tanzania Ghana Kenya Nigeria Côte d'ivoire Senegal South Africa Emerging markets Sovereign Bond Spreads (EMBIG spreads, basis point change since October 2014) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Note: Data as of October 23, 2015. 7
Current account balance (percent of GDP) External and fiscal positions are weaker than in 2008 Current Account Balance and Fiscal Balance, 2008 15 10 2008 5 0 2014 2008-5 2015 2014 Sub-Saharan Africa -10-15 Oil exporters 2014 2008 Low-income countries 2015-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 Fiscal balance (percent of GDP) 8
Change 2011 14 (percentage points of GDP) and in frontier economies public debt is increasing Total Public Debt Ratio 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0-4 -8-12 Sub-Saharan Africa Comparators ZMB CMR SEN AGO ZAF KEN UGA COL RUS TZA CHL THA IDN MYS NGA PER ETH PHL POL BRA GHA IND HUN 0 20 40 60 80 100 Level of public debt in 2014 (percent of GDP) 9
Botswana Angola Mauritius Nigeria Lesotho Seychelles Zambia Comoros South Africa Kenya Tanzania Uganda Swaziland Cabo Verde Malawi Burundi Madagascar Mozambique Ghana Congo, Dem. Rep. Guinea South Sudan Zimbabwe CEMAC WAEMU Months of imports Some countries have drawn on their foreign exchange reserves 14 Reserves 12 10 8 Most recent October 2014 6 4 2 0 10
Zambia Angola Mozambique Uganda Tanzania South Africa Nigeria Ghana Malawi Botswana CEMAC/WAEMU Mauritius Madagascar Kenya Guinea Rwanda Ethiopia Sierra Leone Burundi Congo, Dem. Rep. Gambia, The Seychelles Brazil Chile Poland Indonesia Thailand India Percent...but most have also let their currencies depreciate 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 Depreciation of National Currency Against U.S. Dollar Since October 2014 (+ indicates depreciation) Sub-Saharan Africa Comparators Note: Data as of October 23, 2015. 11
All SSA Chad Cameroon Nigeria All oil exporters Gabon Angola Congo, Rep. South Sudan Equatorial Guinea Kenya Senegal Namibia Zambia Seychelles Ghana Cabo Verde Mauritius All MICs Lesotho Botswana Swaziland South Africa Ethiopia Mozambique Tanzania Rwanda All LICs Uganda Benin Burkina Faso Mali Niger Malawi Sierra Leone Congo, Dem. Rep. Côte d'ivoire Central African Rep. Togo All fragile states São Tomé & Príncipe Guinea-Bissau Gambia, The Madagascar Zimbabwe Comoros Liberia Eritrea Guinea Burundi Percent The upshot is a sharp growth deceleration, with some variation across the region 10 8 Real GDP Growth Projections, 2015, Current Projections versus October 2014 Projections Oil exporters Middle-income countries (MICs) Low-income countries (LICs) Fragile states 6 4 2 0-2 -5.3-10.2-23.9-7.2 Current projection October 2014 projection 12
Risks to this outlook are tilted to the downside Security-related risks still prevail in a number of countries Commodity prices could fall still further, especially in the event of a more rapid slowdown in China A sharp global reallocation of financial assets could lead to rapid capital outflows from the region s frontier markets 13
Near-term policy implications: Limited scope to counter the drag on growth Fiscal policy: For oil exporters, adjustment is unavoidable For most others, need to balance debt sustainability considerations and development spending Monetary policy Exchange rate should absorb the shock, wherever feasible Interventions should be limited to contain exchange rate excessive volatility 14
Percent Financial stability will also require close monitoring Commodity Price Shocks and Indicators of Financial Sector Fragility 12 10 Nonperforming loans (NPLs) 50 45 40 Number of banking crises 8 35 30 6 25 4 20 15 2 10 5 0 All countries Sub-Saharan Africa Developing countries 0 All countries Sub-Saharan Africa Developing countries Positive shocks Negative shocks 15
Medium-term considerations Policy actions need to be geared toward boosting the region s competitiveness Strengthening revenue mobilization will be the most durable way to create fiscal space 16
Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging and developing Asia Commonwealth of Independent States Latin America and Caribbean Emerging and developing Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of world Median (percent of GDP) Tax revenue mobilization: Good progress to date Total Tax Revenue, 1995-2000 and 2014 25 20 15 10 5 Selected regions Average 1995 2000 2014 Low-income countries 0 17
South Africa Namibia Congo, Rep. Angola Kenya Ghana Senegal Guinea-Bissau Cameroon Togo Mozambique Gambia, The Malawi Tanzania Zambia Mali Madagascar Burkina Faso Guinea Uganda Ethiopia Nigeria Niger SSA median Non-SSA median Percent of GDP but still potential for significant improvement 40 Tax Ratio and Potential, 2014 30 Actual tax ratio Tax potential 20 10 0-10 18
Percent With the right policies, growth should strengthen again in the medium term 6 Real GDP Growth, 2010 20 5 4 3 2 1 0 Average 2010-2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 19
1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 Millions of persons, ages 15-64 And the region s demographic trends will entail important opportunities for growth 350 Change in Global Working-Age Population 300 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of world -100 20
Zimbabwe s economy Zimbabwe's economic and financial conditions remain difficult: Slow growth, rising unemployment, economic activity increasingly shifting to the informal sector, a precarious external position, and very low levels of international reserves In addition, the country is in debt distress and is facing low commodity prices, an appreciating U.S. dollar, and subdued external inflows 21
Risks to the outlook Fiscal challenges Weak global commodity prices Adverse weather conditions Policy implementation in a difficult political environment 22
Opportunities Advancing the ongoing reforms Reengagement with the international community Access to official financial support Better credit risk and therefore lower costs of funds, including for the private sector Private sector support by entities such as the IFC and EIB 23
The re-engagement process and cooperation with Zimbabwe going forward Zimbabwe needs to normalize its relations with international creditors, after more than a decade of noncooperation The authorities recently got the green light from its creditors to settle their overdue obligations with the AfDB, World Bank and IMF 24
What next? Continued commitment to implementing sound macroeconomic and structural policies If all goes well, Zimbabwe could request a Fundfinancial programme in 2016. The reform component would build on the SMP in an effort to address the more deep seated structural problems Strong ownership of such a programme is key 25
Thank you! The online edition of the Regional Economic Outlook for sub-saharan Africa is now available online at www.imf.org 26