HydroHegemony in the Context of the South African Cold War Experience 1 st Workshop on HydroHegemony 2122 May 2005 Kings College London Dr. Anthony Turton GibbSERA Chair in Integrated Water Resource Management aturton@csir.co.za President: Universities Partnership for Transboundary Waters www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu AR Turton, 2005.
Layout of Presentation Hydrological Realities in the Southern African Context Hydropolitical Actualities in the context of the Cold War HydroHegemony as a potential tool Conclusion
Shared River Basins Africa s shared river basins contain: 61 % of the area 77 % of the people 93 % of the water Pete Ashton 0 N 500 1000 Kilometres
Shared Tindouf Errachedia Basin Northern Sahara Basin Source: UNESCO (2004) Mourzouk Djado Basin Nubian Sandstone Basin Systems Taoudéni Basin A B C Irhazer Iullemeden Basin Chad Basin Awash Djibouti Basin Senegalo Mauritanian Basin A B C Cote d Ivoire Ghana Coastal LiptakoGourma L Air Crystalline TinSéririne BeninTogo Nigeria Coastal Congo Coastal Congo IntraCratonic Basin F Upper Nile Basin E D G Ogaden Juba Merti Basin Kenya Tanzania Coastal Pete Ashton D E F G H I J K L M N Rift Valley Secondary s Mount Elgon Kagera Kilimanjaro Upper Rovuma Shire Valley Alluvial NataGwaai TuliShashe Pafuri Alluvial Ramotswa Dolomite Karoo Sedimentary Cunene Coastal Gariep Coastal Okavango Kalahari M J N K L I H Incomati Coastal 0 Rovuma Coastal N 500 1000 Kilometres
Dependence on Neighbouring States for River Inflows / Water Transfers Degree of Dependence on Neighbouring States 0 % 0 10 % 11 24 % 25 49 % N Pete Ashton > 50 % 0 500 1000 Kilometres
WATER AVAILABLE PER PERSON IN 2002 AND 2025 2002 2025 Water security Adequate water Water stress Chronic scarcity Pete Ashton Absolute scarcity
PERENNIAL RIVERS AND LAKES: SITES OF DPUTES Perennial rivers Pete Ashton Disputes usually occur in zones where water availability is uncertain
MEAN ANNUAL D. R. C. TANZANIA RAINFALL ANGOLA ZAMBIA MOZABIQUE MALAWI = 860 mm isohyet = World average rainfall SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm Pete Ashton 0 250 500 km NAMIBIA SOUTH AFRICA BOTSWANA ZIMBABWE LESOTHO SWAZILAND Mean Annual Rainfall (mm) 2500 2000 1500 1250 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
How Water Scarce is Southern Africa? O Keeffe et al
Cascading water to sustain a national economy
Lake Chad Dams and Nile hydraulic Congo (DRC) inf structure Congo Tanzania in Southern Angola Africa Rovuma Kunene Zambia Mozambique Zambezi Cuvelai Zimbabwe Malawi Pungué South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top twenty countries in the world in terms of the numbers of dams built (WCD 2000) Namibia Okavango/ Makgadikgadi South Africa Botswana Orange Limpopo Incomati Umbeluzi Maputo Swaziland Buzi SaveRunde N P Ashton Lesotho 0 250 500 Kilometres
Lake Chad WATER Nile TRANSFERS Congo (DRC) IN Congo Tanzania SOUTHERN AFRICA Angola Rovuma Kunene Zambia Mozambique Zambezi Cuvelai Zimbabwe Malawi Existing water transfer scheme Namibia Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Botswana Limpopo Pungué Buzi SaveRunde Proposed new water transfer scheme South Africa Orange Incomati Umbeluzi Maputo Swaziland N Pete Ashton Lesotho 0 250 500 Kilometres
Hydropolitical Actualities All basins are not equal some are more strategically important than others Pivotal Basins vs Impacted Basins Not all states are equal some are more dependent than others Pivotal States vs Impacted States Southern African Hydropolitical Complex as an analytical concept
Southern Africa was place where the Cold War got hot. This was in keeping with Kissinger s doctrine of limited war A R Turton 1982
While Heavy water metal infrastructure seepage became from a target of war mine at dumps different scales it was never a cause of war A R Turton 1982
The water transfer pipeline from Calueque Dam in Angola to Namibia was in the middle of a theatre of the Cold War A R Turton 1982
The pipeline was attacked on occasion for tactical reasons
Yet despite being a combat zone high levels of cooperation in the field of water resource management continued throughout the war A R Turton 1982 A R Turton 1982
HydroPolitical Complex International River Basins Pivotal Impacted Impacted States Pivotal States Namibia Botswana South Africa Zimbabwe Angola Mozambique Swaziland Lesotho Zambia Malawi Riparian States Tanzania Orange SC Limpopo Incomati Okavango Cunene Legend: = Pivotal State = Impacted State SC = Special case Maputo Pungué SaveRunde A R Turton, 2004 Ashton & Turton, 2005 Zambezi
Lake Chad Heavily Utilized Water Nile Resources in Congo Congo (DRC) Southern Tanzania Africa Angola Rovuma Cunene Zambia Mozambique Water resources approaching closure very little left to allocate for offchannel uses Cuvelai Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Zambezi Zimbabwe Pungué Buzi SaveRunde Malawi Water resources under increased pressure need to ensure closer cooperation with neighbouring states Namibia South Africa Botswana Orange Limpopo Incomati Umbeluzi Maputo Swaziland N Pete Ashton Lesotho 0 250 500 Kilometres
Limpopo & Incomaputo Case Limpopo & Incomati are Pivotal Basins Pivotal States SA & Zimbabwe Impacted states Mozambique & Swaziland Ideological Struggle was centered on Colonialism, Capitalism and Racism Zimbabwe took the moral high ground as leader Mozambique threw in its support behind Zimbabwe Outcome was winlose
Orange Case Orange is a Pivotal Basin Pivotal States SA, Botswana & Namibia Impacted state Lesotho Ideological Struggle saw Botswana resisting Zimbabwe initiatives Botswana took pragmatic view Lesotho took pragmatic view Outcome was winwin
HydroHegemony as a Tool Both Zimbabwe and Mozambique resisted all reasonable approaches by SA Both became marginalized and have never regained the advantage lost (Major Lesson) Lesotho, Swaziland & Botswana took pragmatic views Both leveraged significant advantages Namibia was a special case Clever negotiation skills Demise of the Cold War created window of opportunity for engagement
HydroHegemony as a Tool The concept is useful because it helps explain certain issues The universality of the concept is not yet certain Asymmetry is not always an independent variable Clever negotiations can leverage advantages way beyond the anticipated levels The key is the capacity to engage with the hegemon (Major Lesson)
Now the Cold War guns stand silent as Southern Africa engages in reconstruction centered on the management of transboundary water resources The first regional protocol signed when South Africa joined SADC was the protocol on shared watercourse systems A R Turton 1999