ALABC Latin American Infrastructure Forum 2017 Overview of Infrastructure Developments in Latin America Jorge H. Kogan Melbourne, Australia May 23, 2017
I. Infrastructure in Latin America: present situation and investment gaps II. III. IV. The strategic agenda Sector Outlooks and Scenarios Knowledge and capacity building V. PPPs in Latin America
CAF: An overview Members: 19 countries Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador Jamaica Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Portugal Spain Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela
Ratings: Fitch Ratings: AA- Japan Credit Rating Agency: AA Moody s Investors Service: Aa3 Standard & Poor s: AA- CAF: Portfolio
Infrastructure is a powerful tool and a critical enabler of sustainable development Articulates natural resources with production and consumption centers Unites the territory, reduce travel times and generate proximity, concentration and economies of scale Reduces poverty and improves quality of life Stimulates economic growth and trade Connects neighborhoods, cities, regions, nations and continents Latin America faces a unique opportunity to achieve comprehensive development in the coming decades. Infrastructure is a pillar for this. CAF interventions in infrastructure seek to be integral at all stages of the project: Economic; Social; Environmental Sustainability; Institutional; Knowledge; Regional integration, Finance
Latin America: significant gaps in the quality of Infrastructure Quality of overall infrastructure index 1-7 6
Important challenges in infrastructure The present situation varies significantly across sectors: Energy: electricity and telecommunications services are acceptable Transport: ports and airports need additional development Greater challenges are in water and sewerage, roads, urban transport and railways Taking into account the positive prospects for the region and population aspirations, these challenges are becoming urgent 7
% of GDP Infrastructure investment in Latin America is less than 3% of GDP 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Transport, Telecom, Electricity, Gas, Water Public and Private Investment Regional Average 2.9% of GDP (1.9% Pub + 1.0 % Priv) Priv. ARG BOL BRA CHI COL ECU GUA MEX PAR ER URU Pub. Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru invest more than the average. More recently Honduras and Panama up; Brazil down Private sector investment participation grew in countries like Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay due to PPPs, new legal and institutional frameworks Source: IDeAL 2013 (CAF, 2013); 11 countries analized with data available 8
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Infrastructure investment as % of GDP Infrastructure: LAC currently invests less than in the 80s 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Public inv. Private inv. Total inv. Source: Calderón & Servén (2010); CAF (2011) 9
Significant Investment is required to bridge the gap - To overcome the deficit in infrastructure and keep up with growth and development, the region needs to invest annually between 5% and 6% of GDP. This does not take into account maintenance expenditures - The annual requirements are around US$200,000-250,000 million - Demands important efforts by the public and private sectors with the support of IFIs 10
Public and private investment by sector 11
With the end of the commodities supercycle... 12
the Latin American economies have suffered significant reductions in growth and recessions in 2015 and 2016 13
Demand for services has decelerated Electricity Air transport Annual growth of passengers by regional airlines Telecommunications Maritime transport flat in the South Annual growth of penetration of mobile broadband in Latin America Variation of container movements in the10 main ports of each sub-region. In millons of TEU 14
Investment in infrastructure in 2016 drop to 2008 levels Total Investment, all sector, public and private, as a % of GDP and in Millon USD Historical Data Presunción 15
Latin America has significant growth opportunities that will require adequate infrastructure Domestic markets, even when considered on a regional basis, are not big enough to enable sustainable growth Latin America will need to build new positions in global markets Several potential Growth Engines, that will require adequate Infrastructure Investment in infrastructure, by itself, will create opportunities for employment and enterprise development Continue building on Agriculture and move into processed foods Grow in Life Sciences Hydrocarbons and Mining Specialized Manufacturing Knowledge-Intensive Services Tourism Address Infrastructure Gaps 16
The strategic agenda Significantly increase investment in infrastructure Within the context of a sustainable development paradigm Strengthen institutions capacity building, planning, coordination, more and better projects Adequately articulate the sources of funding i.e. Effective engagement between public and private sectors Promote the development of infrastructure-related companies Promote the exchange of knowledge and best practices between governments, regions and cities i.e. Robust information for decision making process 17
There will be new investment opportunities in the coming years Port Terminals Container Port terminal concessions underway in Latin America New concessions coming for Container Port terminals in Latin America Manta (Ecuador): Modernization of existing port Ilo (Peru): Expansion and modernization of existing port Chimbote (Peru): DFBOT for a container terminal Salaverry (Peru): Modernization of existing multi-purpose port Corozal (Panama): Greenfield project, container terminal at the pacific side of Panama canal. Iquique (Chile): Expansion of terminal 1 or construction of a new terminal Callao (Peru): Construction of new container terminal at north-west outer area (long term, various phases) Valparaíso/San Antonio (Chile): Construction and operation of new outer port terminal (long term, various phases) Suape (Brasil): New container terminal Santos (Brasil): Modernization and integration of various container terminals Manaus (Brasil): New container terminal Buenos Aires (Argentina): Renewal of 3 concessions for container terminals by 2019 Veracruz (Mexico): Concession of Terminal 2 for port expansion Manzanillo (Mexico): New port at Laguna Cuyutlan as possible expansion of Manzanillo Source: Master Plans, National Port Development Plans 18
Project Portfolio in the Port Sector Project location and estimated amount of investment (Mill USD) México 2,240 405 Brasil 1,441 435 Veracruz II Fase I (405 M$) HPH Fase I (TECI) Veracruz II (1.050M$) Contecon Fase III Mazanillo (750 M$) Caucedo ampliación (270 M$) APM Fase II - Lázaro Cárdenas (440 M$) Kingston KFTL ampliación I (280 M$) Compas Cartagena ampliación (200 M$) APM Limón-Moín Fase II (650 M$) Modernización Port of Spain (109 M$) Puerto Cabello ampliación (520 M$) Corozal Balboa Fase I (1.000 M$) Chile Panamá Ecuador Costa Rica 1,047 1,000 770 650 Posorja Fase I (525 M$) Puerto Bolívar Fase I (245 M$) Nueva terminal Manaus (327 M$) Argentina Perú 530 524 Venezuela Callao APM Fases IV y V (290 M$) Callao DPWorld (194 M$) Bolivia Puerto Busch (400 M$) Modernización del puerto de Ilo (70 M$) Tecon Santos ampliación (280 M$) Jamaica TGG Ampliación (90 M$) Terport (35 M$) TCP ampliación (396 M$) TUP TGSC (158 M$) República Dominicana Porto Itapoá Ampliación (438 M$) Berço 401 (55 M$) Uruguay Terminal especializada TCVAL (347 M$) PGE San Antonio Fase I (700 M$) Ampliación TCP Montevideo (210 M$) Colombia Terminales BA (532 M$) Trinidad y Tobago 520 400 280 270 210 200 109 Projects for containers Projects for grain Paraguay 35 Container Grain 19
Significant investment opportunities in airports Concession underway New concession Kingston (Jamaica): Concession structured by IFC but there were no bidders Santa Lucia (in the Caribbean) Fortaleza, Salvador, Florianópolis & Porto Alegre (Brasil): process underway for four airports. No specific dates available. In addition the process for Cuiaba airport has been anounced Asunción (Paraguay): concession process is underway (bids up until june 2016) Pereira (Colombia): Concession process pending to be defined by Pereira Local Government Neiva y Armenia (Colombia): Schedule to be defined by ANI (National Agency of Investments) La Aurora (Guatemala); expected for 2017. Soon will be selected the investment bank. Johan Pengel in Surinam & Trinidad Tobago ; within two years New Guayaquil Airport (Ecuador): under study. Corporacion America operates the existing airport. Cali (Colombia): Current concession to Aerocali (Dragados, AENA, etc.) is expected to end by 2020 Cartagena (Colombia): Current concession to SACSA (local investors & AENA) is expected to end by 2019 Interairports (Honduras): Concession of airports in San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba, Roatán is expected to end by 2020 La Habana (Cuba): various groups has already approached to the Cuban government New processes in Brasil; Conghonas (Sao), Santos du Mont (Rio), Recife, Curitiba, Belén, Vitoria. Mexico; Querétaro, Puebla and partial concessions for Mexico City new airport? El Salvador; Comalapa international airport? Nicaragua: Managua Airport? Aeropuertos Tier 1 Bahamas? 20
Airport projects under construction or planning process in the Andean Region Airports Map Investments to be executed Country Airport Type Capacity added Current State Investment Cartagena (CTG) Bolivia Viru Viru Terminal + Strip + Cargo 5.5 Mpax Construction 300 M.US$ Cali (CLO) Barranquilla (BAQ) Bogotá (BOG) Colombia El Dorado Terminales + Strip + Platform 25 Mpax Construction Fase I 2160 M.US$ Colombia El Dorado II Greenfield - Planning 1000 M.US$ Lima (LIM) Guayaquil Colombia Barranquilla Terminal + Platform 4.5 Mpax Planning 225 M.US$ Colombia Cartagena Greenfield 8.5 Mpax Planning 500 M.US$ Cusco (CUZ) Viru Viru (VVI) Colombia Cali Terminal + platform 5.2 Mpax Construction 80 M.US$ Ecuador Guayaquil Greenfield 6 Mpax Planning n.d. Perú Lima Terminal + Strip 22Mpax Planning 1200 M.US$ Perú Cusco Greenfield 5 Mpax Construction 546 M.US$ 21
Airport projects under construction or planning process in Brasil Airports Map Investments to be executed Country Airport Type Capacity added Current State Investme nt Belo Horizonte (CNF) Fortaleza (FOR) Salvador (SSA) Brasil Viracopos Terminal + Strip 33 Mpax Planning Brasil Florianopolis Terminal + Strip 15 Mpax Construction Brasil Porto Alegre Terminal + Strip 12 Mpax Construction 2900 M.US$ 275 M.US$ 505 M.US$ Viracopos (VCP) Brasil Fortaleza Terminal + Strip 22.5 Mpax Waiting concession 297 M.US$ Porto Alegre (POA) Florianópolis (FLN) Brasil Belo Horizonte Terminal + Strip 12 Mpax Construction 462 M.US$ Brasil Salvador Terminal + Strip 23 Mpax Waiting concession 409 M.US$ 22
Airport projects under construction or planning process in Southern Cone Airports Map Investments to be executed Country Airport Type Capacity added Current State Investment Chile Santiago de Chile Terminal 14 Mpax Construction 580 M.US$ Asunción (ASU) Paraguay Asunción Terminal + Platform 2.5 Mpax Planning 150 M.US$ Santiago de Chile (SCL) 23
An investment of near US$140 billion is needed by 2020 to close the broadband infrastructure gap with more advanced economies CAGR: 9% Investment per-capita: US$48,50 Investment gap by 2020 159,568 Inversión Historical histórica investment 2006-2012 2006-2012 $143.000 216,000 359,000 Inversión Estimated estimada Inversión Required requerida investment segúnas per 2013-2020 investment (11 comportamiento historical países 2013-2020 LATAM) 2013-2020 histórico Closing the gap with the EU s Digital Agenda Main goals at 2020: Fixed-broadband: 75% Mobile broadband:95% Required broadband network investments as % of GDP: Historical ratio:0,48 Estimated ratio: 0,80 Gross investments: Historical : $216 billion Required: $359 billion Source: Convergencia Research AHCIET,(2013); TAS for CAF (2014): IDEAL 2014 24
CAF has a Strategic Vision of regional integration Physical integration Integration and development of borders Economic and commercial integration Energy integration Financial integration Regulatory and logistical integration Cultural and social integration Environmental cooperation 25
USD Billion (constant 2010) Looking forward to 2040:Investment needs in Latin America 5000 Infrastructure investment by country (2011-2040) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 55% of total Maintenance New Capacity 2000 88% of total 1500 1000 500 0 BRA MEX COL ARG PER CHI VEN DOM C.RICA ECU OTHERS 55% investment needs in Brazil and México. USD 7,269 Billion 88% of investment needs within first 7 countries. CAF and IDB + CEPAL carrying regional statistics for LAC. www.infralatam.info Source: Latin America 2040 (CAF, 2013) 26
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 % of GDP A potential scenario for Latin America 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Power Water Telecom Roads Rails Airports Ports 0.50 0.00 Source: CAF LATIN AMERICA 2040 (2013) 27
Transport infrastructure and logistics are key in CAF s agenda for regional development Latin America 2040 Investment needs in infrastructure to sustain growth and development CAF knowledge generation on infrastructure development and logistics IDeAL 2011 Regional challenges to improving logistics performance IDeAL 2012 High quality infrastructure and logistics are key for internationalization IDeAL 2013 Strategic ambitions in logistics for Latin American countries IDeAL 2014 Policies on Publicprivate cooperation for business development CAF Regional Development Program in Logistics (since 2014) Systemic, Simultaneous and Sustainable intervention in all elements of National Logistics Systems CAF has produced a series of technical reports and continues promoting investment and financing projects in the transport and logistics sector 28
The need for private sector investment and PPPs: Learning from experience PPPs in Latin America: Learning from experience CAF - Development Bank of Latin America (2015) Review the experience of PPPs in LAC: - Regulatory framework - Institutional framework - Operational framework - Business and investment environment - Financing facilities - Sub-national adjustment factor Research five PPPs cases in LAC, well documented Lessons and challenges 29
Latin American countries with advanced plans for PPP programs 30
Final remarks There are important opportunities for investment in infrastructure in Latin America Joint efforts will be required in areas such as infrastructure and productive transformation Australian companies have the expertise and knowledge that would be very useful for Latin America CAF could be an important instrument to foster collaboration between Australia and Latin America and become a platform for the exchange of knowledge and experiences 31
Thank you!!! jkogan@caf.com www.caf.com www.infralatam.info www.omu.caf.com http://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/13 32