Digging into Data Erin Smith Director of Research & Business Intelligence Matthew Howe Research Assistant Manager 1
Research & Business Intelligence WHAT WE DO: Maintain an accurate and current database of statistics Conduct consumer research current and potential visitors Track tourism trends Measure visitor satisfaction with on-island product and experiences Measure awareness, perceptions and marketing ROI in key markets Assess competitive positioning Measure progress towards tourism goals
We want to find out as MUCH information about EVERYTHING related to tourism AS WE POSSIBLY CAN in order to 1. Identify opportunities/gaps 2. Measure 3. Compare 4. Predict
Identifying Opportunities/Gaps AREAS: On-island experience Personas Geographic markets Obstacles to conversion Market trends
Measurement AREAS: Visitor arrival statistics Who are they? Where did they stay? For how long? Where did they come from? Visitor spending How much? On what? Differences between leisure, business and VFR? Differences by country of origin? Economic Impact for events and groups
Measurement AREAS: Visitor Satisfaction Index what are our visitors happy with and what can we improve? Hotel performance Air statistics what routes are performing better than others? Sales & Marketing effectiveness/influence On-island perception - feedback from stakeholders and general public
Compare AREAS: Against the past Against projections Against our competitors
Predict - Projections AREAS: Airline schedules/capacity Hotel pace Air & cruise arrivals Visitor spending Hotel occupancy Tax revenue, GDP, jobs
Tourism Measures JANUARY SEPTEMBER 2016
Total Vacation & Leisure Visitor Arrivals AIR VACATION & LEISURE VISITORS YTD- 14 YTD- 15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY % CHG YOY 117,739 116,695 132,816 16,121 13.81% CRUISE VISITORS 316,762 322,093 344,385 22,292 6.92% TOTAL LEISURE VISITORS 434,501 438,788 477,201 38,413 8.75% 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000-316,762 322,093 344,385 117,739 116,695 132,816 Air Vacation & Leisure Cruise Air Vacation & Leisure Purpose of Visit = Vacation, Destination Wedding, Sporting Event, Concert/Festival/Carnival or America s Cup Spectator/Vacation. Source: Immigration Landing Cards and H.M. Customs 10
45,786 31,787 2,852 35,578 29,961 1,770 37,319 30,013 1,048 41,574 28,470 1,512 35,520 25,900 1,251 38,131 25,358 1,301 36,102 26,859 1,789 33,587 24,545 2,600 33,191 25,737 3,167 128,680 116,890 116,792 119,630 124,942 124,338 117,739 116,695 132,816 Total Air Visitors Purpose of Visit YTD- # CHG % CHG YTD-15 YTD-16 14 YOY YOY Vacation & Leisure 117,739 116,695 132,816 16,121 13.8% Business 36,102 33,587 33,191-396 -1.2% Visiting Friends & Relatives 26,859 24,545 25,737 1,192 4.9% Other 1789 2,600 3,167 567 21.8% TOTAL Air Visitors 182,489 177,427 194,911 17,484 9.9% 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Vacation & Leisure Business VFR Other 2016 YTD Other 2% Business 17% VFR 13% Vacation & Leisure 68% Air Vacation & Leisure Purpose of Visit = Vacation, Destination Wedding, Sporting Event, Concert/Festival/Carnival or America s Cup Spectator/Vacation. Source: Immigration Landing Cards 11
Air Visitor Arrivals by Country Leisure Air Arrivals YTD-14 YTD-15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY % CHG YOY US 92,233 92,472 110,235 17,763 19.2% Canada 13,471 11,291 9,669 1,622-14.4% UK 7,763 8,628 8,021 607-7.0% Europe 2,414 2,399 2,537 138 5.8% Caribbean* - 344 542 - - Asia* - 260 543 - - Other 1,858 1,301 1269 - - Total Air Arrivals YTD-14 YTD-15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY % CHG YOY US 132,060 129,303 147,899 18,596 14.4% Canada 22,554 19,203 17,630-1,573-8.2% UK 17,339 17,521 16,912-609 -3.5% Europe 4,774 5,207 5,583 376 7.2% Caribbean* - 1,449 2,068 - - Asia* - 799 1,234 - - Other 5,762 3,945 3,585 - - 2% 1% 6% 7% 9% Leisure 2016 YTD 83% 1% 0% 3% 2% 9% 76% 0% 1% US Canada UK Europe Other Caribbean Asia 2016 Total YTD US Canada UK Europe Other Caribbean Asia Source: Immigration landing cards. *Caribbean and Asia have been tracked in 2016 but full data is not available from 2015. 12
116,792 119,630 124,942 124,338 117,739 116,695 132,816 339,584 348,951 343,194 292,651 316,762 322,093 344,385 Leisure Arrivals Year To Date (January September) 600,000 Year-to-Date 2016 500,000 400,000 Air 28% 300,000 200,000 Cruise 72% 100,000 Cruise Total Air - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Air Vacation & Leisure Purpose of Visit = Vacation, Destination Wedding, Sporting Event, Concert/Festival/Carnival or America s Cup Spectator/Vacation. Source: Immigration Landing Cards
Leisure Air Arrivals US Air Visitor Arrivals by Region YTD-14 YTD-15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY % CHG YOY Middle Atlantic 46,966 47,689 59,917 12,228 25.6% Northeast 23,265 23,741 26,152 2,411 10.2% Southeast 11,699 11,064 12,309 1,245 11.3% Mid-West 5,369 5,183 5,736 553 10.7% West 4,640 4,603 5,002 399 8.7% Total Air Arrivals YTD-14 YTD-15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY % CHG YOY Middle Atlantic 63,999 62,514 75,769 13,255 21.2% Northeast 30,096 30,202 32,043 1,841 6.1% Southeast 20,202 19,423 20,941 1,518 7.8% Source: Immigration landing cards. Does not include unknown, US Territories or Military addresses. 14 Leisure 2016 YTD 5% 5% Middle Atlantic 11% 24% 55% Northeast Southeast Mid-West Mid-West 9,220 8,868 9,227 359 4.0% Mid-West West 7,936 7,892 8,476 584 7.4% Middle Atlantic = Delaware, DC, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia West Northeast = Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont Southeast = Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas Mid-West = Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, Wisconsin West = Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, N Dakota, Oregon, S Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wyoming 6% 14% 22% 52% West Total 2016 YTD 6% Middle Atlantic Northeast Southeast
Q3 2016 US Air Visitor Arrivals by City of Residence Leisure air arrivals city # Of arrivals Q3 % Share of total Q3 # Of arrivals YTD % Share of total YTD New York 23,358 42.7% 42,869 38.9% Boston 7,515 13.7% 15,661 14.2% Philadelphia 3,822 7.0% 6,837 6.2% Washington, DC 3,094 5.7% 5,452 4.9% Hartford & New Haven 1,309 2.4% 2,597 2.4% Baltimore 999 1.8% 1,947 1.8% Providence-New Bedford 728 1.6% 1,636 1.6% Atlanta 874 1.3% 1,798 1.5% Los Angeles 657 1.2% 1,228 1.1% Chicago 631 1.2% 1,279 1.2% All others equal less than 1% each Total air arrivals city # Of arrivals Q3 % Share of total Q3 # Of arrivals YTD % Share of total YTD New York 27,259 39.9% 53,961 36.5% Boston 8,471 12.4% 18,347 12.4% Philadelphia 4,565 6.7% 8,965 6.1% Washington, DC 3,758 5.5% 6,997 4.7% Hartford & New Haven 1,561 2.3% 3,431 2.3% Atlanta 1,412 2.1% 3,186 2.2% Baltimore 1,212 1.8% 2,487 1.7% Chicago 966 1.4% 2,242 1.5% Los Angeles 960 1.4% 1,967 1.3% Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 941 1.4% 1,996 1.3% Providence-New Bedford 892 1.3% 2,095 1.4% San Francisco 700 1.0% 1,759 1.2% Source: Immigration landing cards. *Zip codes are grouped into DMAs. This is a new report and year over year analysis is not yet available. 15
Vacation & Leisure Visitor Air Arrivals AGE YTD- 14 YTD- 15 YTD- 16 # CHG YOY % CHG YOY 0-17 14,981 14,458 16,016 1,558 10.8% 18-24 7,805 7,507 9,057 1,550 20.6% 25-34 17,638 17,002 22,574 5,572 32.8% 35-44 18,417 17,611 20,723 3,112 17.7% 45-54 24,501 23,694 25,369 1,675 7.1% 55-64 20,365 21,180 22,539 1,359 6.4% Over 65 14,033 15,243 16,538 1,295 8.5% Year-To-Date Age 55-64 17% 45-54 19% 65+ 12% 0-17 12% 18-24 7% 35-44 16% 25-34 17% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 65 Source: Immigration Landing Cards 16
Cruise Arrivals YTD-14 YTD-15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY % CHG YOY US 277,832 289,099 299,649 14,497 5.1% Canada 17,791 15,915 12,946-2,969-18.7% UK 6,130 5,402 9,377 3,975 73.6% Rest of World 15,009 15,624 22,413 6,789 43.5% Total 316,762 322,093 344,385 22,292 7.8% 3% 3% 4% 2016 YTD US Rest of World 350,000 340,000 330,000 320,000 316,762 322,093 344,385 90% Canada UK 310,000 300,000 Source: H.M. Customs 17
Air Statistics YTD-14 YTD-15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY % CHG YOY Air Capacity (Total Seats) 431,850 387,544 435,011 12.25% 47,467 Arriving Passengers (Seats Sold) 295,752 292,089 315,918 8.16% 23,829 Air Load Factor (% filled) 68.5% 75.4% 72.6% -3.64% -2.7% 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000-431,850 387,544 435,011 295,752 292,089 315,918 68.5% 75.4% 72.6% 2014 YTD 2015 YTD 2016 YTD Air Capacity Arriving Passengers Load Factor 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Department of Airport Operations 18
AIR VISITORS ACCOMMODATION TYPE Year-to-date in 2016, 75% of air visitors stayed in a Hotel or B&B/Guesthouse. Friends and relatives hosted 15% of air visitors. Vacation rentals were third with 7% of visitors opting for this accommodation type. 15% 4% 2016 YTD 3% 7% 71% Hotels or Similar B&B/Guesthouse Friends & Relatives Rental House/Apt Other
Estimated Air Visitor Expenditure Vacation/Leisure Only YTD-15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY Average Vacation/Leisure Visitor Spending (per person) TOTAL VACATION/LEISURE VISITOR EXPENDITURE % CHG YOY $1,291.36 $1,367.46 $76.10 5.9% $150,695,255 $181,620,567 $30,925,312 20.5% Business & Total YTD-15 YTD-16 # CHG YOY Average Business Visitor Spending (per person) Average Total Visitor Spending (per person) % CHG YOY $1,166.43 $1,352.00 $185.57 15.9% $1,188.46 $1,293.53 $105.07 8.8% TOTAL AIR VISITOR EXPENDITURE $210,864,892 $252,123,226 $41,258,333 19.6% Source: BTA/Total Research Associates Visitor Exit Interviews 20
$101 $721 $837 $1,291 $1,166 $1,367 $1,352 $1,188 $1,294 $120 Visitor Spending Average Spending per Person Year-to- Date (Jan September) Average Spending per Person 2015 2014 $1,600 2016 $125 2015 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $120 $115 $110 $105 $100 $95 $0 Vacation & Leisure Business VFR Total Average $90 Cruise
Air Visitor Spending by Category 2016 YTD Accommodations $635.74 Restaurant meals/beverages $315.46 Store-bought groceries/liquor $63.09 Gifts and souvenirs $72.96 Recreational/Leisure $94.77 Transportation/sightseeing $73.60 Telecommunications $8.54 Other shopping $29.37 Gifts and souvenirs 6% Recreation/ Leisure 7% 2016 YTD Groceries/ Liquor 5% Transportation/si ghtseeing 6% Restaurant meals/beverages 24% Other shopping 2% Telecom 1% Accommodations 49% TOTAL SPEND $1,293.53 22
Cruise Visitor Spending by Category 2015 Meals/beverages $18 Groceries/liquor $3 Sightseeing tours purchased on-land Excursions purchased on ship (excluding commission) $0.34 $15 Recreational/Leisure $14 Recreation/ Leisure 12% Excursions purchased on ship (excluding commission) 12% 2015 Groceries /liquor 3% Retail purchases 41% Transportation $21 Retail purchases $49 TOTAL SPEND $120.34 Meals/ beverage s 15% Transportation 17% 23
Bermuda Trip Value vs. Costs The majority of visitors rate the value of their Bermuda trip compared with the cost (including the cost of airfare) has having met their expectations. More than one-third indicate that the value surpassed what they had anticipated. 25
National Tourism Plan - Updated Projections
Rebalance Air and Cruise Arrivals 800,000 718,348 761,557 700,000 608,951 600,000 560,940 655,236 600,045 491,035 500,000 400,000 300,000 387,625 Cruise arrivals surpass air arrivals Air arrivals = 36% Cruise arrivals = 63% 415,711 236,038 377,398 219,814 415,166 415,166 298,904 342,862 200,000 117,916 168,452 Air arrivals = 45% Cruise arrivals = 54.5% 100,000 0 3,487 2,833 4,278 3,529 Air Cruise Yacht Total Projection Source of Historic Data: Immigration Landing Cards and H.M. Customs 26
Reduce Seasonality 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2015 Air Arrivals 2020 Air Arrivals 2025 Air Arrivals Reduce seasonality through new products and experiences, new brand positioning, and a focus on groups and events. Source of Historic Data: Immigration Landing Cards 27
$ Millions Visitor Spending to grow from $305MM in 2015 to $545MM by 2025 600 500 400 300 200 100 $305 $2 $45 $258 $351 $3 $50 $298 $413 $389 $3 $3 $57 $54 $332 $353 $446 $2 $60 $384 $484 $3 $64 $417 $508 $2 $64 $443 $535 $538 $542 $545 $3 $2 $3 $2 $64 $64 $64 $64 $469 $472 $475 $479 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Baseline Projection Air Cruise Yacht Air visitor spending to increase from $1,177 per person in 2015 to $1,396 per person by 2025. Cruise visitor spending to increase from $120 per person in 2015 to $153 per person by 2025. Source of visitor spending: Air & Cruise Exit Surveys 28
Visitor Exit Surveys
Bermuda AIR VISITOR EXIT STUDY STUDY GOAL The goal of the study is to assess visitors experience while in Bermuda. OBJECTIVES Determine the composition of visitors to the Island; Assess visitors expenditure patterns while in Bermuda; Evaluate visitors activity patterns on the Island; Assess visitors level of satisfaction with Bermuda as a vacation destination; and Determine the likelihood of repeat visitation and the propensity to recommend Bermuda to others.
Bermuda AIR VISITOR EXIT STUDY Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 # of Completed Surveys Field Dates 2,547 4,467 4,565 January 1 March 31, 2016 April 1 June 30, 2016 July 1 September 30, 2016
Air Visitor Characteristics Bermuda continues to attract mature, well educated, and affluent visitors.
Travel Party Characteristics Visitors primarily travelled with a spouse, with far fewer having travelled as a family, by themselves, or with colleagues. Couple travellers are more prevalent during the second and third quarter of 2016. There has also been an increase of family travel in Q3.
Air Visitation Profile The travel profile of air visitors remains consistent this year. Bermuda attracts an equal proportion of first time and repeat visitors. The average travel party size of air visitors is nearly 3 people. Average length of stay in Bermuda is between five and six days.
Most Critically Important Island-specific attributes, along with hospitality and personal safety continue to be most influential in visitors choice of Bermuda.
Ad / Website Recall & VIC Visitation Bermuda advertising recall and website usage remain stable in 2016, while VIC usage has declined quarter-over-quarter.
Most Visited Attractions Visitation to Bermuda s key attractions increased so far this year for the Horseshoe Bay and Crystal Caves. Despite an increase from Q1 to Q2 in visitation to the City of Hamilton, the Royal Naval Dockyard, the Town of St. George s and Gibbs Hill Lighthouse, there has been little change from Q2 to Q3.
Recommend / Return Intentions to recommend Bermuda and likelihood of returning again in the future remain strong and have increased so far this year.
Trends Millennials are looking for immersive local travel experiences: Focus on ways to help millennials socialize, make connections with locals, tell their own personal stories in social media, and squeeze more value out of their travel experiences. Food is now the leading hook in travel: Food has the unmatched ability to communicate a unique sense of place. Local cuisine provides a direct connection to the history of a region, the soul of its people and the rhythm of daily life. Shifting focus from Millenials to Gen Z: The upcoming generation has very different expectations for the travel industry and speaks a different digital language. - SKIFT Annual Forecast: Megatrends Defining Travel in 2016
Motivation for Vacation Millenials % Xers % Boomers % Matures % Relaxation 88 89 91 83 Get away from home 86 89 87 72 Exploration 84 80 78 68 Enhance relationships 77 72 71 57 Experience different cultures 81 71 67 66 Experience new cuisines 74 68 61 55 Self-discovery 64 52 43 27 Meet new people 53 41 44 51 Pursue a hobby 59 45 34 24 Pursue wellness programs/lifestyles 50 39 24 20 Play/participate in a sport 43 27 18 10 Source: MMGY Portrait of American Travelers Study
Bermuda s Target Personas Experience Seekers 36-50 years old Double income, no kids HHI $200K+, high disposable income 6+ trips per year Immersive travel experiences Looks at reviews and recommendations from experts and friends Desired experience: Leisure, Culture, me time Go For It Families 36-50 years old HHI @ $200k + Kids are older and can engage at the parents level Mom makes decisions 7+ trips per year, 2 vacations / 5 getaways Lots of travel centered on activities Unique experiences, higher end, creating memories matters most Desired experience: Leisure, culture, adventure, excitement Dream Tripper 51-65 years old HHI @ $150k + Couples traveling together, sometimes with friends Lots of planning, includes tours/packages 8+ trips per year, 2 vacations / 6 getaways including visiting family Not highly engaged in social media, loyal to associations Desired experience: leisure, culture, storytelling Adventure Seekers 25-35 years old Moving up in their career No family or very young family HHI @ 100K+ Millennials with disposable income 6+ trips per year, 2-3 trips around authentic experiences Active on social media, spends time and money on interests Desired experience: Culture, adventure, motivation
Beach Economy Research Plan
Phase 1: Quantitative online survey of potential visitors and previous visitors. Divided into groups by demographics, psychographics and geographic areas. 2,901 respondents completed the survey. Previous visitors were from BTA s online panel/database.
PHASE 1 KEY FINDINGS Beach experiences are seen as important by the vast majority across all personas. The ideal beach is clean, with abundant natural beauty and powdery sand. When asked to select the most important beach attribute: cleanliness, water quality, toilets and no overcrowding. Visitors desire primarily casual dining options near the beach. They expect moderate prices for food, beverages and services.
Phase 2: Qualitative focus groups were held in NYC and Boston to gain deeper insights into visitor desires. Four two-hour focus groups were held with a mix of potential and past visitors to Bermuda.
Phase 2: General preference for public beaches that are easy to access, with a relaxing energy and many available activities (while still retaining a quiet, peaceful ambiance). Interest in basic amenities such as chair rental, towel service and equipment rental. Clean bathrooms were an absolute necessity. Would appreciate an array of highquality but casual food options close to the beach and when possible, have options of local cuisine.
Phase 3: Local poll with 400 residents weighted to represent Bermuda s population. 79% of residents felt Bermuda s public beach are better than those found in other destinations. Reasons included natural beauty, unique pink sand, spacious/not crowded. Of those who felt it was worse, suggestions for improvement included activities, entertainment, rental equipment, food options and restroom facility improvements.
Phase 4: Poll of civil servants (543 completed survey). Asking same questions that visitors were asked in Phase 1: Ideal experience Most important beach attributes Dining options Prices expect to pay To identify gaps, if any, between visitors and residents desired experience.
Phase 4: Key Findings Findings indicate there is close alignment on desired beach experience for residents and visitors. The ideal beach is clean, peaceful/calm, and beautiful. When asked to select the most important beach attributes: cleanliness, water quality, toilets were top 3 (same as visitors). Rounding out the top 5 were lifeguards on duty and public parking. Visitors desire primarily casual dining options near the beach (sit-down and service to beach chairs) while residents were more likely to want food trucks/carts and take-away food. Residents were willing to pay slightly less for amenities on the beach vs. visitors (such as food, beverages, chair and towel rental).
Finding Research and Reports GOTOBERMUDA.COM/BTA
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The Importance of Research Research is creating new knowledge. Neil Armstrong Research consists of seeing what everyone else has seen, but thinking what no one else has thought. Albert Szent-Gyorgyi Marketing without data is like driving with your eyes closed. Dan Zarrella