Logistics in the Caribbean Current Trends and Future Prospects Caribbean Growth Forum June 19 th, 2012 Kingston, Jamaica Jordan Schwartz Gözde Isik World Bank
Productivity losses (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 OECD LAC 0 Merchandise losses: Share of primary goods that do not arrive at market Logistics costs as share of market value Levels of Inventory Sources: World Bank, Guasch (2004, 2008)
Logistics and transport costs are 2 to 10 times higher than import tariffs for basic goods. These basic goods represent 20% to 30% of household income For the poor may represent up to 70% Share of HH Budget spent on food GDP per capita (log) Source: Dessus, et al, World Bank (2008); data from household surveys.
45 40 35 30 25 20 42 12.7 LAC Logistics Costs: % of Total Value of Firm Sales 18 18 18 15 10 5 0 29.4 6.28 7.31 11 11.36 10.63 6.9 Less than US$ 5 M US$ 5 M to US$ 50 M US$ 50 M to US$ 500 M More than US$ 500 M Inventory Management & WarehousingTransport & Distribution
US$ Ct/K 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 4% 6% 36% 2% 19% 34% Margins Warehousing costs Transport Costs Duties, customs fees and phitosanitary certificates Handling and conditioning, packing, and other admin. Costs Farm gate price
Maritime transport costs as a share of Containerized Exports to the US and South America (% FOB value) to US to South America Antigua & Barbuda Guyana Haiti Dominican Rep Barbados Belize Dominica Bahamas Grenada St Lucia Jamaica Developed country average Guyana Cuba Dominica Dominican Rep Barbados Caribbean Trinidad & Tobago Belize Antigua & Barbuda Jamaica Bahamas Grenada St Vincent Haiti Suriname 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Source: UNECLAC 2009 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Location: At the intersection of the major east-west and north-south trade routes Lack of natural hinterlands and small domestic markets Lack of scale economies: negative trade balances and related backhaul problems Emergence of the hub and spoke system in liner services as larger ships were introduced over time for major routes
Infrastructure Location Depth Reliability Competitive rates Security Critical mass
Port of Spain 4% Other, 9% Freeport 98% Colon, 26 Kingston 90% Cartagena, % Colon 80% 13% Caucedo; Port of Spain/Point Lisas 60% 8% Freeport, 21% Kingston, 19% Rio Haina/Caucedo Cartagena 40% 50% Large domestic markets 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Contecar 2011 Source: McCalla 2009
Kingston Freeport Port of Spain Bridgetown Castries 300 250 Maersk leaves Economic recession 200 150 100 Source: Containerisation International 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Liner shipping Connectivity Index 2011 Hong Kong Egypt Panama Jamaica Colombia Bahamas Dominican Republic Mauritius Fiji Cuba Barbados Haiti Cape Verde Suriname Saint Lucia Guyana Saint Vincent and the Grenada Belize Saint Kitts and Nevis Antigua and Barbuda Dominica 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Cost to ship 20ft container from Miami (USD) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Connectivity index Roseau PAP Basseterre St Georges Kingstown Castries St Johns Paramaribo Bridgetwon POS Caucedo Cartegena Kingston Transshipment hubs Colon 0 10 20 30 40 Source: UNCTAD and shipping lines
Geographic distance
Economic distance
Intra-Regional fleet deployment 400,000 700 350,000 600 Total number of TEUs 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 TEUs Vessels 500 400 300 200 Number of vessels 50,000 100 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: CI
Efficiency scores based on utilization of infrastructure San Juan Freeport Balboa Colon Cartagena Port of Spain Havana Point Lisas Kingston Rio Haina Belize City Caucedo St Johns Bridgetown Fort Vieux Roseau In terms of utilization of equipment and yard and berth areas, some ports have room to grow while other do not something to think about when considering expansion 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: World Bank 2012
Logistics is central to boosting the region s competitiveness The widely accepted prognosis is that the Panama Canal expansion will increase transshipment traffic in the Caribbean Not entirely clear if capturing more transshipment traffic will help reduce logistics costs and increase efficiency of logistics services in the region as a whole (including connectivity of small non-transshipment ports) Logistics bottlenecks must be removed in order to fully reap the benefits of the Panama Canal expansion