Tourism Towards 23 Agenda Item 5a 24 th Joint Meeting of the UNWTO Commission for East Asia and the Pacific and the UNWTO Commission for South Asia 4 May 212 Chiang Mai, Thailand
million Tourism 22 Vision vs. actual trend World International tourist arrivals 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 Tourism 22 Vision forecast Actual 1995-21* 6 4 528 mn 881 mn 94 mn 2 1995 2 25 21 215 22 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 23 A broad research project of long-term forecasting, following up on work initiated by UNWTO in the 199s Objectives: Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans Provide a global reference on future tourism development Reinforce UNWTO s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities Central to the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades 21-23 Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 198-21 The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable. Two independent variables are used: 1) growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential; 2) cost of transport.
World
Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 1 9 4 3 9 7 6 7 9 3 4 4 6 5 3 4 8 3 1 6 6 7 2 7 Average growth 21-23 3.3% a year 21-22 3.8% a year 22-23 2.9% a year -2-2 -4-4 -6 198/'79 1985/'84 199/'89 1995/'94 2/'99 25/'4 21/'9 215/'14 22/'19 225/'24 23/'29
International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World 8 6 4 2 8 4 25 13 1 3 27 22 28-2 39 15 21 2 33 26 16 22 49-1 2 7 International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million 45 45 56 2 58 Average increase 21-23 43 million a year 21-22 42 mn a year 22-23 45 mn a year -2-11 -4 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23-35
International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 23 International tourism, World 2, International Tourist Arrivals, million 1.8 bn 1,75 1,5 1.4 bn 1,25 1 bn 1, 75 5 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 215 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies 1,25 International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, emerging economies 75 5 advanced economies 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 International Tourist Arrivals, million Africa Middle East Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe 2 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 198 (277 mn) Africa 3% Middle East 3% Americas 23% Asia and the Pacific 8% Americas 16% 21 (94 mn) Middle East 6% Asia and the Pacific 22% Europe 63% Africa 5% Americas 14% 23 (1.8 bn) Asia and the Pacific 3% Europe 51% Middle East 8% Africa 7% Europe 41%
Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most Outbound tourism by region of origin 9 International Tourist Arrivals generated, million Europe 8 7 6 5 Asia and the Pacific 4 3 Americas 2 1 Middle East 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Africa
Europe generates most arrivals relative to population, while Asia & Pacific is still low Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 1 population 1 9 8 7 198 1995 21 23 89 6 57 5 4 36 3 2 1 6 9 14 22 1 2 3 6 12 14 17 24 1 3 5 12 21 6 6 17 25 World Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East
No major change in share by purpose of visit International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, 9 Leisure, recreation and holidays 8 7 6 5 VFR, health, religion, other 4 3 2 1 Business and professional 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Air transport will continue to increase market share, but at a slower pace International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, by air 75 over surface 5 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Asia and the Pacific
Growth in international tourism to continue at an average rate of almost 5% a year International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific 3 25 27 International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year Average growth 21-23 4.9% a year 2 16 16 21-22 5.7% a year 22-23 4.2% a year 15 1 8 11 12 12 14 14 13 1 11 1 11 12 8 8 8 1 13 5 4 2 1 3 3 5 1-5 -1-2 -1-1 198/'79 1985/'84 199/'89 1995/'94 2/'99 25/'4 21/'9 215/'14 22/'19 225/'24 23/'29
International tourist arrivals to increase by 17 million a year on average International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 3 2 1 1 3 3 4 5 7 1 7 2 8 6 8 2 8-1 9 12 5 9 3 11 12 16 2-3 23 Average increase 21-23 17 million a year 21-22 15 mn a year 22-23 18 mn a year -15-12 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Asia and the Pacific : Intl tourist arrivals still to grow from 2 mn to over 5 mn International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific 6 International tourist arrivals, million 535 mn 5 4 355 mn 3 24 mn 2 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific by subregion Asia and thepacific: Inbound tourism by subregion of destination 3 International tourist arrivals, million North-East Asia 25 2 South-East Asia 15 1 5 South Asia Oceania 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
South Asia subregion with fastest growth (%) International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average annual growth % 1 1995-21 21-23 1.5 8 7.5 7.7 7.4 6 6.6 6. 5.9 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.8 6.5 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.2 2 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2. 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 South Asia West and Central Africa East Africa Central America South-East Asia North-East Asia South America North Africa Middle East Southern Africa Central/Eastern Europe Oceania Southern/Mediter. Eu. Caribbean Western Europe Northern Europe North America
NE Asia subregion with fastest growth (abs.) International tourism by (sub)region of destination 1 International tourist arrivals, average absolute change over previous year, million 9.1 8 1995-21 21-23 6 5.9 4 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.1 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.8 2 1.2 2. 1.7.8.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2.5.5.6.8.7.7.3.4.4.5.2.4 North-East Asia South-East Asia Southern/Mediter. Eu. Middle East Central/Eastern Europe Western Europe North America South America North Africa East Africa South Asia Northern Europe Southern Africa West and Central Africa Central America Caribbean Oceania
North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 23 International tourism by (sub)region of destination 3 25 293 264 1995 21 23 International tourist arrivals, million 222 2 187 169 176 15 154 149 138 112 112 1 98 95 98 81 82 7 58 61 58 58 5 41 28 14 36 12 24 7 19 46 37 36 12 11 5 4 14 2 3 29 22 22 13 8 4 7 3 2 8 12 19 North-East Asia Southern/Mediter. Eu. Western Europe South-East Asia Central/Eastern Europe Middle East North America Northern Europe South America North Africa East Africa South Asia Caribbean Southern Africa Central America West and Central Africa Oceania
International tourism by (sub)region of destination 12 1 Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 1 of population 114 13 1995 21 23 International tourist arrivals received per 1 of population 8 81 8 71 62 63 65 6 47 48 47 47 46 4 42 38 4 38 2 15 25 27 9 9 22 28 32 19 8 8 15 28 6 12 27 21 21 26 7 18 3 4 6 13 2 4 7 3 1 2 1 2 Western Europe Southern/Mediter. Eu. Northern Europe Caribbean Central/Eastern Europe Middle East Southern Africa Oceania Central America North Africa South-East Asia North America North-East Asia South America East Africa West and Central Africa South Asia
Asia and the Pacific: leisure to grow fastest Asia and the Pacific, International tourism by purpose of visit International tourist arrivals, million 3 25 Leisure, recreation and holidays 2 15 VFR, health, religion, other 1 5 Business and professional 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Asia and the Pacific: air and surface transport to grow at about the same pace Asia and the Pacific, International tourism by means of transport International tourist arrivals, million 3 by air 2 1 over surface 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Share in the world
Asia and the Pacific inbound tourism market share of going up due to faster growth Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 7 6 Europe 5 4 3 Asia and the Pacific 2 1 Americas Middle East Africa 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Asia and the Pacific outbound tourism also growing at a faster pace Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 7 6 Europe 5 4 3 Asia and the Pacific 2 Americas 1 Middle East 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Africa
Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 1 9 8 7 within same region 6 5 4 3 between regions 2 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Bulk of arrivals in Asia and the Pacific intraregional, mkt shares not to vary much Asia and the Pacific: Inbound tourism by region of origin International tourist arrivals, million 6 5 4 3 2 Africa Middle East Americas Europe Asia and the Pacific 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
but Asia and the Pacific is increasing share in outbound travel from all regions Market share of Asia and the Pacific in regional outbound markets International tourist arrivals, share, % 9 8 7 from Asia and the Pacific to Asia and the Pacific 6 5 4 3 2 1 from Americas to Asia and the Pacific from Europe to Asia and the Pacific from Middle East to Asia and the Pacific from Africa to Asia and the Pacific 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Travel from emerging markets more often to same region, Europe more often outside International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 7 6 from Africa to other regions 5 from Middle East to other regions 4 from Asia and the Pacific to other regions 3 2 1 from Americas to other regions from World between regions from Europe to other regions 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Round-up
What if assumptions change? Tourism Towards 23: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 Actual data 198-21 Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3) Central projection Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2) A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1) 1, 75 5 25 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23
Tourism Towards 23 in one page Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (198 22) to 3.3% (21 23), as a result of four factors: The base volumes are higher, so smaller % increases still add substantial numbers Lower GDP growth, as economies mature A lower elasticity of travel to GDP A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades; emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive
Opportunities and challenges: how to make it possible Five key areas that mark the future: For many countries tourism represents a powerful tool for social and economic development and the reduction of poverty through the creation of job and enterprises, infrastructure development and the export revenues earned In order to tap into this potential, it is essential to continue creating and raising awareness and to mainstream tourism in the political agenda Sustainability (social, economic and environment) is more important than ever, addressing issues such as energy dependency, climate change adaptation and mitigation, green economy, congestion management and risk management Keep track of the changing consumer: more experienced and demanding customers, demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure), changing values and lifestyles, from service economy to experience economy, etc. Enhance competitiveness by shaping an adequate business environment: innovation, diversification of products, markets and segments, product development, ICT and technology in general, marketing and promotion, research, evaluation, human resources development, quality, etc.
Tourism towards 23 / Global Overview Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org