AirportInfo Economic Indicators & Traffic March 2012
U.S. & Canadian GDP Economic Focus 6% 4% US Canada 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% GDP growth improved slightly for both the U.S. and Canada in the third quarter. Most economists expect to see continued growth in the fourth quarter, fueled by record holiday spending. Source: TradingEconomics.com 2
U.S. & Canadian Unemployment Rate Economic Focus 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% US Canada Unemployment continues to improve in the U.S. for January 2012 continuing December unemployment decline. While still high relative to February, 2009, U.S. is seeing signs of slight employment recovery. Canada saw a slight increase in unemployment but remains relatively stagnant. Source: TradingEconomics.com 3
% change (YOY) U.S. Personal Income and Spending Economic Focus 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 6.4% 5.9% 5.5% 2% 1% 4.6% 4.7% 3.1% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 3.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 2.6% 0% -1% -2% -0.1% Personal Income Disposable Income Personal Spending -2.6% -1.9% -3% -4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 4
Jan-2006 Mar-2006 May-2006 Jul-2006 Sep-2006 Nov-2006 Jan-2007 Mar-2007 May-2007 Jul-2007 Sep-2007 Nov-2007 Jan-2008 Mar-2008 May-2008 Jul-2008 Sep-2008 Nov-2008 Jan-2009 Mar-2009 May-2009 Jul-2009 Sep-2009 Nov-2009 Jan-2010 Mar-2010 May-2010 Jul-2010 Sep-2010 Nov-2010 Jan-2011 Mar-2011 May-2011 Jul-2011 Sep-2011 Nov-2011 Jan-2012 Mar-2012 May-2012 Jul-2012 Crude Oil vs. Jet Fuel Cost (Per Barrel) Economic Focus Crude Jet Fuel Crack Spread $180 $160 Futures as of 2/27/12 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Supply and demand fundamentals do not fully explain the recent spike in prices. Instead, speculation has returned to the oil markets as fears of high oil prices have become a self-fulfilling prophecy, with the markets pricing in an Iran premium as tensions continue to simmer. Source: BTS 5
Million Passengers Annual Growth Rate ACI World Traffic Forecast Traffic Focus Passengers Growth Rate 12,000 6% 10,000 8,000 4.80% 4.90% 5.20% 4.90% 4.60% 4.20% 3.70% 5% 4% 6,000 4,000 2,000 4,797 5,026 5,274 5,548 5,822 6,092 7,493 10,817 3% 2% 1% 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2019 2029 0% Medium term economic indicators point to an on-going economic recovery and a 4.9% annual growth in passenger demand over 2011, albeit with significant variations by world region. Medium term improvements will be largely linked to economic and demographic development in emerging markets. Recovery for mature markets is expected to remain fragile. In the U.S., economic recovery is marked by limited job creation, further slowing air transport recovery. Source: ACI-World Global Traffic Forecast 6
% Change World Passenger Trends Traffic Focus 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 International Domestic Total Jan-11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan-12 Passenger traffic rose in December 2011 with world airports reporting a 5% increase compared to December 2010. Domestic passenger traffic posted gains of 4% while international traffic rose to 7%. For 2011 as a whole, world passenger traffic increased by 5% with international traffic rising by 6% and domestic passenger traffic increasing by almost 4%. Source: ACI-World - PaxFlash 7
% Change Passenger Traffic by ACI Region 2011 vs. 2010 through December Traffic Focus 10 8 7.3% 8.8% 7.6% 6 5.5% 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 2.1% AFR ASP EUR LAC MEA NAM -10-9.1% In 2011, most regions have seen significant growth. The African region has been affected by the civil unrest in Libya and Egypt. North America continues to lag behind other regions with only 2.1% growth. Note: AFR-Africa, ASP-Asia/Pacific, EUR-Europe, LAC-Latin America/Caribbean, MEA-Middle East, NAM-North America/Canada Source: ACI-World - PaxFlash 8
% Change World Freight Trends Traffic Focus 10 International Domestic Total 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 Jan-11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-11 International, domestic, and total freight worldwide experienced no growth in December, 2011. The results for the entire year show a decline to almost -1% for international, domestic, and total freight. Source: ACI-World - FreightFlash 9
% Change 12 10 10.6% Freight Traffic by ACI Region 2011 vs. 2010 through December Traffic Focus 8 6 5.4% 4 2 1.9% 0-2 -4 AFR ASP EUR LAC MEA NAM -1.9% -0.7% -1.8% Air freight is continuing to be sidelined for the seventh consecutive month with an overall year over year decline of -0.7%. Despite the volatility in air freight traffic across the African continent, it has posted overall gains of over +10.6%. A significant contributor to the growth in freight traffic is attributable to the burgeoning economies of South Africa. Note: AFR-Africa, ASP-Asia/Pacific, EUR-Europe, LAC-Latin America/Caribbean, MEA-Middle East, NAM-North America/Canada Source: ACI-World - FreightFlash 10
U.S. Aviation Traffic: Jan-Nov, 2011 vs. Jan-Nov, 2010 Jan-Nov, 2010 Jan-Nov, 2011 Change Total Passengers 661.9million 671.1 million 1.4% Domestic Passengers 578.4 million 586.1 million 1.3% International Passengers 83.5 million 85.0 million 1.9% Flights (thousands) 8,750.8 8,696.3-0.6% Available Seat Miles 892.1 billion 911.5 billion 2.2% Load Factor 82.2 percent 82.2 percent 0.0 pts. Flight Stage Length 728.1 miles 743.1 miles 2.1% Through November, 2011, U.S. passenger traffic grew only 1.4% as compared to the previous year. Growth continued to slow towards the end of the year with November alone seeing a 0.1% drop. While international traffic growth still outpaced domestic, the gap has narrowed significantly. Carriers continued to maintain capacity discipline as fuel costs again became significant. Source: BTS 11
AirportInfo November 2013 Contact: Economic Affairs and Research Tel: 202-293-8500 Email: EconomicAffairs@aci-na.org www.aci-na.org