Regional Aviation Association of Australia The Next 10 Years: Opportunities for Aviation Across Australia Bernard Salt 11 October 2012
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Australians are reluctant to move from the capital cities or the coast FIFO proves this point Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1986 and 2011 Karratha Geraldton PERTH Broome FIFO WEST DARWIN FIFO CENTRAL FIFO EAST Cairns-Port Douglas TOWNSVILLE Mackay Gladstone Bundaberg Hervey Bay Sunshine Coast Gold Coast Byron Bay Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Port Stephens Augusta- Margaret River Denmark Victor Harbor Narooma Winners 2012 KPMG, an Australian partnership and Losers a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Surf Coast Sorell
Are Australia s newest tribes represented in the public face of your airline? Country of Birth 2011 United Kingdom 1,101,100 New Zealand 483,400 China 319,000 2006 % change 1,038,200 6% 389,500 24% 206,600 54% India 295,400 147,100 101% Italy 185,400 Vietnam 185,000 Philippines 171,200 South Africa 145,700 Malaysia 116,200 Germany 108,000 199,100-7% 159,800 16% 120,500 42% 104,100 40% 92,300 26% 106,500 1% Top 10 ethnicities in Australia at the 2011 and 2006 Censuses
New acronyms for the new tribes of Australia PUMCINS. NETTELs KIPPERS LOMBARDs
Develop strategies to service rising consumer demand in specific segments over the coming decade 2001-2011: 3.2 million or 19m 22m 2011-2021: 3.3 million or 22m 25m 450,000 400,000 350,000 Mature adults Corporate flight lounges Business travel Premiumisation Young adults Frequent flyer programs Budget holidays Backpacking Retirees Eco-travellers New backpackers Value-driven 300,000 250,000 200,000 Kids & teenagers School holidays Gold Coast Worlds 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 2001-11 2011-21 Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2011 and 10 years to 2021
Increasing life expectancy is creating new stages of the lifecycle and new markets for work and leisure travel 2012 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old 82 Child Teen Old Adult 1972 71 Child Adult Old 1932 63 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia
Fastest growing towns in Australia are on the beach is there scope for air-connection in these markets? 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% Mandurah Gladstone Busselton Bunbury Townsville Coastal Rural Capital Alice Springs Broken Hill Mandurah Gladstone Busselton Bunbury Townsville Perth Geraldton Mackay Orange Ballarat Mount Barker Canberra-Queanbeyan Gold Coast-Tweed Brisbane Melbourne Hervey Bay Cairns Sunshine Coast Livingstone (Yeppoon) Tamworth Nowra-Bomaderry Bendigo Toowoomba Albany Kalgoorlie/Boulder Geelong Sydney Newcastle Port Macquarie Shepparton Taree (Greater) Rockhampton Albury-Wodonga Dubbo Byron Goulburn Greater Hobart Warrnambool Bathurst Mildura Coffs Harbour Maryborough Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) Adelaide La Trobe Valley Great Lakes (Forster) Bundaberg Wagga Wagga Grafton Armidale Singleton Ballina Kempsey Griffith Mount Isa Wollongong Lismore Launceston Darwin Eurobodalla (Narooma) Lithgow Bega Valley Burnie-Devonport Nambucca Mount Gambier Burdekin (Ayr) Whyalla Johnstone (Innisfail) Broken Hill Alice Springs Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2011 for the 70 largest towns in Australia
The Pilbara has 55,000 permanent residents and 24,000 visitors on any single night difference is FIFO 21,000 + 8,000 Karratha Port Hedland 14,000 + 4,000 Isaac Qld: 21,000 + 13,000 Pannawonica 9,000 + 6,000 Tom Price Paraburdoo Marble Bar 11,000 + 6,000 Population of residents and visitors in the Pilbara at 2011 Census
The transformation of Karratha began in 2006 Total passenger movement at Karratha Airport, 1986-2011 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; Shire of Roebourne/Alan Kohler; KPMG
The market for overseas visitors is changing in composition (more boomers) but not substantially in volume 9000 8000 7000 Students Backpackers Overseas Visitors 206,000 in 2001 220,000 in 2011 6000 5000 Baby boomers 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100+ 2001 2011 Overseas visitors in Australia by single year of age at the 2001 and 2011 Censuses
Australia is shifting its tourism focus from Japan to China do you really understand how this Asian market works? 2010 2000-2010 2010-2020 New Zealand 1,162 345 255 UK 647 66 107 USA 472-16 140 China 454 333 505 Japan 398-323 -30 Singapore 308 22 88 Malaysia 237 85 89 Korea 214 57 43 Kong 164 10 56 Germany 160 17 38 Total 5,885 954 2,197 Top 10 sources of international visitors (000 s) to Australia in 2010 with changes from 2000 and projections to 2020 Source: Tourism Forecasting Committee Forecast 2 (October 2011); KPMG
The rise in the value of the Australian dollar is luring holiday-makers overseas 1. Other holiday fares - overseas 260% 2. Holiday motel/hotel charges - overseas 222% 3. National park fees and charges 200% 4. Other package tours - overseas 148% 5. Holiday air fares - overseas 101% 6. Travel insurance - selected payments 64% 7. Holiday air fares - Australia 40% 8. Day trips and other excursions 39% 9. Airfare inclusive package tours - overseas 39% 10. Holiday flat/house charges - Australia 21% 11. Holiday motel/hotel charges - Australia 18% 12. Airfare inclusive package tours - Australia 16% 13. Other package tours - Australia 6% 14. Holiday petrol - Australia 4% 15. Other holiday fares - Australia (including vehicle hire) 4% Total Goods & Services expenditure 38% Per cent change in holiday and travel spending by households over six years to June 2010
There has been a shift in the Australian economy away from manufacturing and towards healthcare 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Healthcare Professionals Mining 4 years August 2008 up 1.3m (9.6m 10.8m) 4 years August 2012 up 561k (10.8m 11.4m) Finance, Wholesale, Real Estate, Transport, Retail 100,000 50,000 - - 50,000-100,000-150,000 Manufacturing, Construction, Agriculture 2004-2008 2008-2012 Net change in total jobs in Australia over two successive four-year periods, August 2004 August 2012
Baby boomers will re-engineer retirement in the coming decade beware the rise of the grumpy retiree! 1950 2000 2050 150,000 140,000 130,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 Population growth 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net growth in population (65+) over 100 years in Australia
Three phases of baby boomer tourism 1970-1984 Lonely Planet Limited travel window; 20-24 Bali discovered Marriage & mortgage Hippie Trail to London Nimbin 1973 Car trips Camping Annual holidays Large family network; VFR 1985-1999 Holiday Infrastructure Seaworld, Dreamworld, Movieworld Interstate destinations by air/road Noosa, Coolum, Port Douglas, Sanctuary Cove Caravan holidays Gold Coast destination Coastal resorts 2000-2016 Cheap Airfare Weekends away Indulgences and rewards Palazzo Versace Cheap air travel VirginBlue, Jetstar and Frequent Flyer redemption Change to the Annual Holiday shorter breaks; more frequent Day spas and retreats
Gen X and Gen Y on the same track 1985-1999 Holiday Infrastructure 2000-2016 Cheap Airfare Gen X Popularised backpacking Single in 20s Travel with single partner Colonised Cairns and Byron Bay Limited funds: HECS Developed work overseas culture (Boomers were on Contiki holidays) Caravan holiday childhood experience Gen X Baby Bounce Both parents work: - weekends away - need to co-ordinate diaries Demise of annual vacation HECS, mortgages & petrol prices place pressure on road travel Time, as well as cost of travel, now a factor Caravan holiday costeffective Gen Y Smaller families; VFR diminished Invented GAP year; OE; Schoolies Colonised new markets: Hervey Bay; Avalon; Vietnam Rich parents; prosperous times Travel connected to tribalism Big expectations of holidays
Introducing Brisbane s bachelor hotspot Deception Bay 1.30:1 Upper Mt Gravatt 1.74:1 Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census
Contact Bernard Salt KPMG Australia +61 3 9288 5047 bsalt@kpmg.com.au www.bernardsalt.com.au twitter.com/bernardsalt linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt facebook.com/bernardsaltdemographer