Greater Orlando Aviation Authority Board Meeting Wednesday,
Award
Recognition
South Terminal Complex Phase 1 and Phase 2 Planning Overview Greater Orlando Aviation Authority
AGENDA PASSENGER TRAFFIC REPORT AIRLINE FORECASTED GROWTH SOUTH TERMINAL COMPLEX PLANNING AIRPORT CAPACITY RECOMMENDATION 7
PASSENGER TRAFFIC REPORT 8
PASSENGER TRAFFIC SUMMARY 12-Months Ended November 2017 Passenger Type 12-Months % Change Domestic 38,459,873 6.27% International 5,849,271 4.53% Total 44,309,144 6.04% 121,395 Passengers Per Day 9
PASSENGER SHARE Domestic International 13.2% 86.8% 10
AIRLINE MIX / GATE UTILIZATION MCO HAS A BALANCED MIX OF AIRLINES Domestic Gates: 75 International Gates: 18 9% 2% 17% 14% 10% 28% 3% 3% Others 12% 4% 10% 4% 13% 15% 4% 4% 11% 13% 6% 5% 6% 7% 11 Source: Diio Scheduled Seats Airline, YE July 2018 as of 12/11/2017
AIRLINE MIX / GATE UTILIZATION MCO HAS A FULL UTILIZATION OF GATES AT THE NORTH TERMINAL COMPLEX AIRSIDE 1 AIRSIDE 3 AIRSIDE 2 AIRSIDE 4 12
FORECASTED AIRLINE GROWTH 13
PASSENGER TRAFFIC HISTORY & FORECAST 100 Average load factor over last 12 months: 86.6% 54 90 52 Load Factor (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 77.7 81.9 84.6 82.7 81.5 83.7 85.4 82.4 71.5 84.0 77.3 80.6 77.8 81.6 82.7 85.3 82.4 85.6 89.0 86.4 77.4 85.1 82.3 82.2 81.7 81.0 86.6 83.7 83.3 83.8 88.3 85.7 79.3 88.2 86.0 83.5 80.5 82.7 87.7 84.4 86.5 85.1 88.2 83.8 80.8 85.4 87.5 83.5 81.7 85.2 87.8 86.7 85.7 87.0 87.5 87.1 80.4 85.8 86.0 84.4 83.9 84.5 88.8 84.6 86.3 87.8 86.0 87.5 82.3 87.7 83.3 86.2 83.0 85.7 88.4 86.5 86.9 86.9 88.6 89.6 83.8 89.7 86.2 86.6 82.5 85.6 86.8 86.1 84.9 85.5 88.5 87.7 85.2 90.5 86.8 86.1 83.8 85.1 88.2 86.9 88.5 87.7 88.3 87.1 86.3 84.4 88.6 86.1 84.9 86.5 87.5 87.0 88.6 88.4 89.4 88.0 Load Factor (12-Month Avg) Seats Future Seats Passengers Conservative Estimate 86.6% LF Estimate Load Factor (Monthly) If future scheduled seats and 86.6% average load factor maintained: 44.5m by Dec 45.0m by Feb 45.5m by May 46.0 by Aug 72.2 89.8 89.4 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 Seats & Passengers (Millions) 10 Conservative Estimate (growth at 2% less than seat growth) (Equivalent to average load factor dropping to 85.7%): 44.5m by Jan 45.0m by Mar 45.5m by Jul 46.0 by Sep 36 0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 34 Source: Innovata flight schedules and GOAA Airline Landing Reports. Updated December 28, 2017. Based on currently filed flight schedules which may be subject to significant change. 14
FORECASTED AIRLINE GROWTH Upward traffic trend has accelerated in recent months. 70 Comparison of Passenger Forecasts 60 The 2011-2031 Master Plan Projections of Passenger Traffic, as well as the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts, have been exceeded. Annual Passengers (in Millions) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Year (CY) Actual 2011 MP - Base forecast 2017 FAA TAF 15 Sources: Actual Greater Orlando Aviation Authority. 2017 FAA TAF Federal Aviation Administration, https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/taf/, accessed December 2017. 2011 MP Forecasts - Forecasts LeighFisher.
FORECASTED SEAT DEMAND The low cost carriers that operate at the Airport are growing faster than anticipated. The growth of these carriers will trigger the need for additional aircraft gates and passenger terminal facilities at the Airport. Sources: Innovata, December 2017; LeighFisher (Future Seats Projected Growth Rate), Report of the Airport Consultant, Priority Subordinated Airport Facilities Revenue Bonds, Series 2017, August 2017. 16
FORECASTED AIRLINE GROWTH To support the projected demand, additional aircraft gates will be required beyond the STC Phase 1. Short- and long- term gate requirements are projected to be greater than the current leased gates for seven primary air carriers: Air Canada American Airlines Delta Air Lines Frontier Airlines JetBlue Airways Southwest Airlines Spirit Airlines Future Aircraft Gate Capacity (includes STC Phase 1) Existing Aircraft Gate Capacity GATES 140 130 120 110 100 90 Aircraft Gate Requirements 2034 2031 2023 46.5 MAP 53 MAP 60 MAP 66 MAP Annual Passengers (in Millions) Sources: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority; Ricondo & Associates, Inc. 17
FORECASTED AIRLINE GROWTH Summary of Findings: To accommodate future growth by Airlines, additional passenger terminal facilities and aircraft gates will be required beyond the STC Phase 1. Aircraft off gate positions (hardstands) will also be required to maximize gate availability. Future Phase 2 aircraft gate requirements will be driven by the mix of airlines anticipated to operate at the new facilities. Key factors that impact future aircraft gate requirements include: Airline aircraft fleet mix Aircraft movements and passenger traffic distribution throughout the day Minimum aircraft turn times 18
SOUTH TERMINAL COMPLEX PLANNING 19
SITE MAP Orlando International Airport (MCO) NORTH TERMINAL Terminals A & B Parking Garages North Terminal Complex SOUTH TERMINAL Automated People Mover (APM) Station Intermodal Terminal Facility (ITF) South Terminal C, Phase 1 South Terminal Complex Parking Garage 20
SOUTH TERMINAL COMPLEX PROJECT PHASING STC TERMINAL C PHASE 1 FOR DEVELOPMENT 16 GATES Airside Terminal Landside Terminal Currently under design Completion Date: First Quarter 2021 21
SOUTH TERMINAL COMPLEX PROJECT PHASING STC TERMINAL C PHASE 2 PROPOSED PLANNING FOR 13 ADDITIONAL GATES S. APM/ITF (Complete) STC Phase 1 STC Phase 2 22
AIRPORT CAPACITY 23
AIRPORT CAPACITY North Terminal Complex: Currently the NTC operates with 93 gates fully utilized 2011 Master Plan established the NTC Capacity at 40 Million Annual Passengers (MAP) 2018 Passenger Traffic has reached 44 Million Annual Passengers, resulting in diminished levels of passenger service at peak operational periods of time South Terminal Complex Phase 1: STC-1 will provide 16 gates Scheduled completion first quarter 2021 Programmed for a passenger capacity of 10 MAP 24
CONCLUSION It is projected that by September 2018 OIA will reach 46 MAP The past five years annual passenger growth averages 3.6%, which exceeds the Master Plan and FAA s forecast Based on that average, annual passenger traffic could exceed the NTC plus STC-1 capacity of 50 MAP when STC-1 opens Projected gate demand by 2023 is 122 gates, exceeding the capacity of the 109 gates for the NTC plus STC-P1 25
RECOMMENDATION 26
GOAA BOARD RECOMMENDED ACTION It is respectfully requested that the Aviation Authority Board resolve to authorize the Chief Executive Officer to: (1) proceed with the design of a South Terminal-C Phase II (STC-2) as follows: retain the services of SchenkelShultz Architecture and Fentress Architects to complete a conceptual design from which staff and consultants will develop a cost estimate and a plan of finance. These will be presented to the Aviation Authority Board for approval; (2) start with the RFP process now and proceed with procurement of an architect of record and major design disciplines to prepare the design concept and, after the design concept is approved by the Board, perform the detailed design; (3) proceed with procurement of construction manager at risk services for pre-construction and construction services to provide estimating, management and construction services for STC-2; (4) authorize funding in the amount of $3.5 million dollars, as an unbudgeted expense for Fiscal Year 2017-2018, to perform the conceptual design and estimating phase; and (5) request Orlando City Council approval of the unbudgeted expenditure. 27
QUESTIONS 28
Greater Orlando Aviation Authority Board Meeting Wednesday,