Quarterly Report Egypt Hotels Q1 2016 Egypt Quarterly Review & Forecast 4 Key Cities
Contents Cairo... 3 Sharm El Sheikh... 4 Hurghada... 5 Alexandria... 6 2
Cairo SUPPLY Forthcoming pipeline in Cairo is primarily in the 5-star segment, indicating development opportunities of hotels with a midscale positioning. PROJECTED HOTEL SUPPLY NO. OF KEYS 17,299 16,497 15,620 15,157 14,581 Cairo hotels are on average 22 years old, with 3-star hotels being even more outdated (31 years old). There is a clear gap between the demand for modern facilities from the growing opposed to the current aged quality of hotels. MARKET PERFORMANCE Cairo has witnessed ADR growth of 10% annually in local currency (EGP) from 2012 to 2015, given the high inflation rate and considering the recovery is from a low base. Converted to USD, this growth was 2% annually, due to a weakening local currency. In the future, currency and inflation will be two important factors to consider in hotel investments. Q1 2015 Q1 2016 FY 2016(f) FY 2017(f) FY 2018(f) Source: Colliers International account potential cancellations and delays. OCC ADR RevPAR Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Forecast FY 2016 Source: STR Global, Colliers International KPIs YOY % CHANGE -2% +83% +14% +0.8% +13% +5% +17% Occ 62% -1% US$ 136 OUTLOOK Developing midscale properties, which include lower fixed operating costs and lower investment costs than upscale products, make it more resilient to market dips, and cater to price-sensitive travellers, which is a growing source of demand. Increase from the domestic market which represents 20% of demand, the Libyan market, and guests from the GCC, are expected to continue in 2016. WHAT TO EXPECT? Demand from North Africa Midscale Hotels Regional Hotel Brands Increase in corporate demand from Northern Africa, i.e. Libya. Price-sensitive guests seeking midscale accommodation. Regional brands to enter to market, as strong GCC demand. 3
Sharm El Sheikh SUPPLY PROJECTED HOTEL SUPPLY NO. OF KEYS 21,695 22,338 Fluctuations in supply are expected in coastal cities as unbranded properties are currently facing closures, because of low performance and uncertain outlook. 19,957 19,957 20,670 Although internationally branded properties are still anticipated to enter the market, the majority have been delayed, and are expected to be further deferred until the market rebounds. Q1 2015 Q1 2016 FY 2016(f) FY 2017(f) FY 2018(f) Source: Colliers International account potential cancellations and delays. KPIs YOY % CHANGE MARKET PERFORMANCE While performance has been bleak in Q1 2016, hoteliers expect the summer months, specifically after Ramadan, to achieve an increase in occupancy, primarily from the domestic market (families and groups). Despite that, the remainder of the year is likely to signal a further decline in demand, due to top source markets seeking alternative vacation destinations, given the flight limitations from Europe. OUTLOOK As Western European nations are still advising against travel to the destination, hotels are anxious regarding the decline in demand. Rates are likely to remain low in order to target pricesensitive travellers and groups to focus on a volume driven approach. OCC ADR RevPAR Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Forecast FY 2016 Source: STR Global, Colliers International -7% -8% -48% -14% +39% -12% WHAT TO EXPECT? Targeting Domestic Demand Low European demand Supply decline Domestic demand targeted by offering low rates for the summer season. Decline in demand from Western Europe, shifting to other leisure markets such as Ras al Khaimah, Southern Europe, etc. Decrease in supply, owing to closures of unbranded properties. -24% Occ 45% -10% US$ 46 4
Hurghada SUPPLY The Red Sea destination is expected to witness a growth in PROJECTED HOTEL SUPPLY NO. OF KEYS 20,054 21,031 supply 2017 onwards, by Hilton Worldwide, Fairmont Raffles Hotels International and the regional brand, Pickalbatros. 19,212 19,378 19,378 Hilton Worldwide continues to be the market leader in Hurghada, even within the forthcoming pipeline, with more than 1,000 keys expected to enter the market from 2017. Q1 2015 Q1 2016 FY 2016(f) FY 2017(f) FY 2018(f) Source: Colliers International account potential cancellations and delays. KPIs YOY % CHANGE MARKET PERFORMANCE Although demand has decreased, which has affected OCC -2% -11% -43% -27% Occ 43% performance, luxury properties seem to be more cushioned to the decline than hotels in the city centre. -18% +30% +13% +13% US$ 61 Q2 2016 will continue to witness lower occupancies due to the occurrence of Ramadan, while Q3 2016 is projected to achieve a stronger performance in comparison, as domestic demand is common during the summer months. ADR Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 RevPAR Source: STR Global, Colliers International Forecast FY 2016 WHAT TO EXPECT? OUTLOOK As the hospitality market witnesses a slow recovery, hotel owners are considering converting assets to holiday Holiday Homes Renovations of older hotels to convert to holiday homes for domestic demand. homes, which has a lower operating cost, hence lower risk. Using this approach, owners would potentially refurbish and sell prime beachfront units, predominantly to domestic investors. Further delay in hotel openings MICE demand Delays in the delivery of hotel projects are expected following the decline in demand. Hotels are shifting strategy, targeting MICE to increase occupancy levels. 5
Alexandria SUPPLY PROJECTED HOTEL SUPPLY NO. OF KEYS 2,262 2,161 2,161 2,161 1,962 2015. Supply is expected to grow at a slow pace within the next few years, however branded supply would potentially enter the market, raising the overall quality profile of the market. Economy hotels are likely to be more successful in future development schemes than midscale and upscale properties, due to the lack of these hospitality products, and considering the price-sensitive nature of the demand. MARKET PERFORMANCE Alexandria is less prone to seasonality fluctuations due to the diverse market segments it caters to, and because it is mainly a domestic and GCC driven market. This relative stability supports a healthier occupancy performance throughout the year when compared destinations, which typically depend on leisure guests throughout the year due to their climate appeal. Q1 2015 Q1 2016 FY 2016(f) FY 2017(f) FY 2018(f) Source: Colliers International account potential cancellations and delays. OCC ADR RevPAR Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Forecast FY 2016 Source: STR Global, Colliers International KPIs YOY % CHANGE +2% +17% +1% -3% +3% +13% WHAT TO EXPECT? -4% Occ 68% 11% US$ 83 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES Hospitality developments with beach access or along the corniche witness stronger demand, from both corporate and leisure segments. As corporate demand is a substantial source to Alexandria, it is important to cater to this segment by offering quality accommodation to price-sensitive travellers. Corporate Demand Development in prime locations Economy Hotels If oil prices increase by the end of the year, it would result in a surge in GCC demand. Unbranded beachfront hotels achieving stronger premiums than inland properties. First internationally branded economy hotel in the pipeline. 6
Colliers International Hotels Colliers International Hotels division is a global network of specialist consultants in hotel, resort, marina, golf, leisure an spa sectors, dedicated to providing strategic advisory services to owners, developers and government institutions to extract best values from projects and assets. The foundation of our service is the hands-on experience of our team combined with the intelligence and resources of global practice. Through effective management of the hospitality process, Colliers delivers tangible financial benefits to clients. With offices in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah, Riyadh and Cairo, Colliers International Hotels combines global expertise with local market knowledge. SERVICES AT A GLANCE The team can advise throughout the key phases and lifecycle of projects Destination / Tourism / Resort / Brand Strategy Market and Financial Feasibility Study Development Consultancy & Highest and Best Use Analysis Operator Search, Selection and Contract Negotiation Pre-Opening Budget Analysis and Operational Business Plan Owner Representative / Asset Management / Lenders Asset Monitoring Site and Asset Investment Sale and Acquisition/Due Diligence RICS Valuations for Finance Purposes and IPOs Our hotels team in the MENA region: $9 39,200 8,880 billion keys Hotel keys investment value of valued under asset management projects advised 7
554 offices in 66 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 34 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 231 EMEA: 112 $2.5 billion in annual revenue 2 billion square feet under management For further information, please contact: Filippo Sona Director Head of Hotels MENA Region Main +971 4 453 7400 Mobile +971 55 899 6102 filippo.sona@colliers.com Selim El Zein Associate Director Hotels MENA Region Main +971 4 453 7400 Mobile +971 55 899 6103 selim.elzein@colliers.com Hassan Abou Alam Senior Manager Business Development Egypt Nile City Towers North Tower, Office 2209 Main + 2 02 2461 8533 Mobile + 20 106 094 4550 Hassan.aboualam@colliers.com Colliers International MENA Region Dubai United Arab Emirates +971 4 453 7400 16,000 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International is a leading global real estate services company with more than 16,000 skilled professionals operating in 66 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation; customized research; and thought leadership consulting. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice that help clients accelerate their success. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the more than any other real estate services firm. In MENA, Colliers International has provided leading advisory services through its regional offices located in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Jeddah since 1996. The latest annual real estate survey by Arabia. Colliers International, 2016 The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. colliers.com