Last Chance Tourism Risks and opportunities of an emerging market Jackie Dawson, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Guelph Co-authors: Harvey Lemelin (Lakehead), Emma Stewart (Lincoln) TTRA Conference, Guelph, Ontario, October 14-16, 2009
Presentation Outline Defining Last Chance Tourism (LCT) Climate Change and LCT Risks and Opportunities of LCT Polar Bear Viewing Case Study Conclusion
Defining Last Chance Tourism First to summit Mt. Everest (Edmond Hillary &Tenzing Norgay In the past there was a race to be the first.
First to get to the South Pole (Roald Amundsen race against Robert Falcon Scott)
Defining Last Chance Tourism First women in space ValentinaVladimirovna First Vietnamese women to visit the south pole Hoang Thi Minh Hong First Space Tourist, Denis Tito
Defining Last Chance Tourism.now there is also a race to be the last.. The human ego remains a terrific sales tool for almost any product (Salkin, 2007). The possibility of being the first or the last person to do something or see something is a powerful antecedent to motivate individuals to visit vanishing destinations. A niche market where tourists explicitly seek out diminishing destinations or those with features that are disappearing Last Chance Tourism, See it before its gone tourism, Doom tourism, Tourism of doom, Endangered destinations tourism Dawson et al. in press; Lemelin& Johnston, 2008
Climate Change and LCT Projected Warming by 2100 Global 1.4 to 5.8 0 C Canada 3.7 to 6.8 0 C Northern Territories 5 to 7 0 C Source: IPCC, 2001; 2007; The Union of Concerned Scientists, 2003; Mortsch& Quinn, 1996
Climate Change and LCT Changing conditions are influencing an increase in tourism to Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctica), to melting glaciers, to the Maldives and other vulnerable destinations Antarctic tourism more than doubled from 13,571 tourists in 2002-03 to 33,054 in 2007-08 (IAATO, 2009) Cruise ship itineraries to Arctic Canada increased by 50% between 2005 and 2006 and by an additional 14% between 2006 and 2009 (Stewart et al. 2007; in press) Changing sea ice conditions in polar regions (particularly in Arctic Canada) is increasing access to areas previously
Risks and Opportunities of LCT OPPORTUNITIES RISKS Economic Creation of ambassadors Development of education programs Raise awareness and visibility Influx of conservation efforts Influx of conservation dollars Multiple scale impacts Local on-site impacts (cultural, environmental, social, economic) Global processes such as climate change (paradox of transportation emissions) Not sustainable in the longterm Ethical issues have not yet been fully considered
Tourists Motivated by Disappearing Attraction Decline Perpetuates Last Chance Tourism Resource Base Diminishes Tourist Impacts Destinations The emergence of last chance tourism awakens the debate about loving a destination to death (Dawson et al. in press; Lemelin et al. in press)
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing Polar Bear Capital of the World Churchill, Manitoba
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing Churchill Main Polar Bear Viewing Area Hudson Bay Churchill Wildlife Management Area Wapusk National Park
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing Polar bears are one of the mostevocative symbols of climate change and viewing them in their natural habitat represents one of the most obvious forms of LCT Polar bears are under threat due to decreasing sea ice extent and thickness Bears feed and breed on sea ice (ice season is two weeks shorter than a decade ago) Polar bears congregate along the shores of western Hudson Bay awaiting the formation of sea ice Viewing season lasts six weeks Approximately 8,0000 tourists visited Churchill during October and November last year Revenues of more than $2,000,000 in less than two months
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing Lemelin (2004; 2006) collected 2,096 tourist surveys in Churchill Dawson et al. (2007; 2009; in press) collected 334 tourist surveys and conducted 18 in-depth interviews with tourists in Churchill Stewart (2009) conducted 75 interviews with residents of Churchill
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing Resident Quotes (concerns about climate change long-term) There is a lot of talk about the polar bears because of global warming, about whether the bears are eating enough, going onto the ice too early or too late. Its going to be hard on the bears, and tourism will drop off, will be gone forever (CR 17) With global warming there goes our tourism, especially the bears (CR 18) So long as the polar bears stay there is a future here (CR 27) Climate change will happen over a long period of time.it ll be progressive. I can t see aggressive changes happening. But we will have a lot less people here (CR 51) Stewart, 2009
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing Resident Quotes (evidence of last change tourism short-term) I think we will see more Europeans coming and in fifty years the bears will be gone. It will kill tourism here (CR 22) With the bears it all depends on global warming. The season time might change, it might be earlier. Its risky for the town too, we need to protect the locals. It might also mean that the bears will be here for longer, which will be better for tourists (CR 26) The polar bears won t last forever and that in itself may heighten interest in them because they are on the path to virtual extinction with climate change (CR 50) Stewart, 2009
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing Visitor survey 2006-2008 82% would still visit if there were fewer bears 57% would still visit if the bears appeared unhealthy 49% would still visit even if they might not see any bears 70% would even pay more to see fewer bears 72% said they would travel to another location to see bears Industry Emissions: 20,892 t/co 2 (up to 9t/CO 2 per person) Cost to Offset Emissions: $605,896 Globally sustainable emissions per person per year are estimated to be 3.2t/CO 2 and an average tourism experience is 0.25 t/co 2 (UNWTO, 2008) Dawson et al. 2009; in press
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing Tourist Quotes (evidence of last chance tourism) I wanted to see the bears with my daughter because my grandchildren and their children may not ever know polar bears except in a zoo (T2) I ll tell ya, I m a single mom and I am unemployed but I still took my money out of my precious savings to come up here to see the bears before they are all gone (T5) I was here seven years ago but I wanted to come up again to show my wife the polar bears before they are gone (T12) I thought I better come see the bears because the next time I am in this country they will all be gone (T17) Well, I figured I better come here now because one of us is going to be dead soon me or the polar bears (T20). Dawson et al. 2009; in press
Demand for Polar Bear Viewing NUMBER OF TOURISTS CRITICAL RANGE OF ELEMENTS OF CAPACITY Development Consolidation Stagnation Decline Supply of Polar Bears for Viewing Lag - effect Involvement Exploration
Case Study: Polar Bear Viewing ~Timeframe of LCT in Churchill~ Declining polar bear population in WHB Working career of 30 year old Working career of 20 year old 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Conclusion LCT is an emerging trend that requires further attention and critical investigation LCT seems to be economically promising in the short-term but is not sustainable in the long-term There are many ethical issues to consider in the promotion of LCT under changing conditions
Publications of this work 1. Dawson, J., Stewart, E.J., Lemelin, H. & Scott, D. (in press). The carbon cost of polar bear viewing tourism in Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Journal of Sustainable Tourism. 2. Lemelin, H.R., Dawson, J., & Stewart, E.J. (in press). Last chance tourism: the doom, the gloom and the boom of visiting vanishing destinations. Current Issues in Tourism. 2. TTRA Proceedings Thank-You