UTANRÍKISRÁÐUNEYTIÐ Viðkskipti við Bandaríkin árið 2017 Hlynur Guðjónsson Aðalræðismaður og viðskiptafulltrúi
Main Economic Figures for the U.S. Markaðurinn Despite policy uncertainty, financial conditions remain supportive of growth and the U.S. economy is expected to grow modestly above potential in 2018. The USD is moderately stronger than 12 months ago. Financial conditions are looser than in 2016 and are supportive of investment. After a prolonged deleveraging, the housing sector is showing a healthy growth. U.S households are in relatively good financial shape, with the debt service to disposable income ratio of 10% at the lowest level since the early 1980s. GDP forecast is at 2.1% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018 and 2.2% 2019 according to the FedPhil. The FedPhil forecast is 0.3% higher in 2018 than IMF and The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Personal consumer expenditure (PCE) is expected to slowly rise above 2% before returning to the Federal Reserve's medium target of 2%. Inflation is expected to rise modestly and reach above 2%. Forecasters predict PCE to be from 2.1% to 2.7% in 2017 and 1.9% to 3.0% 2018. Unemployment rate is at 4.4% and job growth continuous to be strong. The FedPhil forecast for 2017 is 4.3% and same for 2018 and 2019. Other institutions such as IMF and Euromonitor International are at the same level. Wages are still stagnant and have been since the downturn in 2008. The tightening labor market is drawing detached workers back into the labor market and starting to put upward pressure on wages, particularly for those that are switching jobs. U.S. export accounts for 7.8% of GDP and is expected to grow 2.4% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Import is expected to grow in 2017 and 2018 3.8% and 5.5% respectively. Forecasters predict continuous rise in stock prices between the levels of 2410 points at the end of 2017 to 2630 at the end of 2018. Health goods and medical services are expected to be the fastest growing consumer categories in 2017-2030 and communication will be the second fastest growing category. Economist Intelligence Unit, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States Department of Labor Burea u of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Board, International Monetary Fund, Euromonitor International, World Tourism Organization, Iceland Tourist Board and Iceland Statistics.
Ferðaþjónusta
US MARKET SNAPSHOT PROFILES OF POTENTIAL TRAVELLERS I» Gender: Men are likely to show more interest to travel to Iceland than women.» Age: People aged 18-54 are significantly more likely to express high interest in Iceland as a travel destination than consumers aged 55+.» Education: Interest in Iceland has a correlation with higher education.» Type: Frequent Travelers and the Outdoor Type exhibit the highest levels of interest in travel to Iceland, followed by City Vacationers.» Income: Interest in Iceland is highly correlated with household income of $100K plus.» Employment: The majority of potential travellers are employed full or part time.» Residence: Consumers in the West and South are more interested in travel to Iceland than consumers in Northeast and Midwest. POPULATION: 322M 73 M 13.8M 73 M TOTAL OUTBOUND TRAVELERS 34 M LIKELY TRAVELERS TO ICELAND 13,8 M LIKELY TO TRAVEL TO ICELAND IN NEAR FUTURE SOURCE: 2016 CONSUMER RESEARCH IN THE US, ICELAND NATURALLY; VISITOR SURVEY, ICELANDIC TOURIST BOARD
US MARKET SNAPSHOT PROFILES OF POTENTIAL TRAVELLERS II» Buying behaviour: Most (41,4%) of the US visitors book their trip less than 2 months in advance, 31% of them book their trip 2-4 months in advance [1]. At least 66% of leisure travellers (and 59% of business travellers) use search engines to research travel online [2]. And according to a survey by TripAdvisor 98% of North Americans say that reviews are influential in generating bookings [3]. In 2015, online travel sales to US residents grow by 7%. Mobile travel sales to US residents as a percentage of all online travel sales to US residents increased in every category in that year [4]. Instagram has become the go-to social media website for travel operators to reach US consumers in a genuine and personal way [4]. Travellers seek mostly information from the internet, friends and relatives, brochures and handbooks and airlines when deciding on travelling to Iceland [1]. March to May are the main booking months for Iceland travel. Most US residents (69%) search for Iceland travelrelated things with a desktop computer, 39% search with mobile [5].» Travel behaviour: The majority of potential travellers are frequent travellers [6]. US visitors are more inclined to stay in Reykjavik and take day tours to nearby regions [1]. Travellers from US are more inclined to visit during summer time and majority of them (48,7%) stay for 3-4 nights [1]. US visitors are mainly interested in geothermal swimming pools (65,5%), guided tours (51,3%), northern lights tours (41,7%), museums (35,9%) and wellness activities (28,3%) [1]. Most of (73,9%) US visitors say that they are travelling independently, 26,4% say that they booked a package holiday where travel and accommodation was included in the same price [1]. SOURCE: [1] INTERNATIONAL VISITORS IN ICELAND WINTER 2013/2104, ICELANDIC TOURIST BOARD; [2] THE WELL CONNECTED TRAVELLER, TRAVELPORT; [3] TRIPBAROMETER APRIL 2014: NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAN EDITION; [4] ONLINE TRAVEL SALES TO RESIDENTS IN THE US, EUROMONITOR; [5] GOOGLE TRENDS; [6] 2016 CONSUMER RESEARCH IN THE US, ICELAND NATURALLY
Market share (Visitor Arrivals through KEF Airport) USA MARKET SNAPSHOT 2017 The largest visitor market over the whole year Lower than average overnight stay (5,9 nights) mainly due to higher share of transatlantic stop-over passengers compared to other markets 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 576.403 VISITORS 2017 10% 5% 5,9 NIGHTS AVERAGE STAY** (ALL MARKET AVG: 6,9 NIGHTS) 0% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 84.13M ISK FOREIGN CARD TURNOVER * INTERNATIONALVISITOR CREDIT- AND DEBITCARD TURNOVER IN ICELAND ** INTERNATIONAL VISITOR SURVEY
Bandaríkin 600.000 Bandaríkin er stærsta viðskiptaland Íslands í ferðþjónustu og næst koma Bretland, Þýskalandi, Kanada og Frakkland 500.000 400.000 Straumhvörf urðu árið 2009 þegar Icelandair hóf flug til Seattle. Í dag fljúga fjögur flugfélög til 18 áfangastaða en var 1 flugfélag árið 300.000 2009 til 5 áfangastaða Síðan þá hefur ferðamönnum frá Bandaríkjanna til Íslands fjölgað 200.000 um 1200% Fjölgun ferðamanna var 71% milli ára 2015/2016 og 39% milli ára 2016/2017. 100.000 Farþegar frá Norður Ameríku voru 680 þús. árið 2017 og er N-A stærsta markaðssvæðið Íslands í ferðaþjónustu. 0
Ferðamenn eftir markaðssvæðum 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 N-Ameríka Mið-/S-Evrópa Bretland Norðurlöndin Annað 200.000 100.000 0
M A R K A Ð S E I N K U N N 2 0 1 8 / Í S L E N S K F E R Ð A Þ J Ó N U S T A Aðgengi Ákjósanleiki Styrkur Bandaríkin Vídd Þrep Þáttur Samtals Breyting milli ára Tímabil Markaðshlutdeild (gistinætur) 23% 4% 2016 Markaðsþróun s.l. 3 ár (gistinætur) +1.044.724 47% 2013/2016 Aukning á ferðaleitarfyrirspurnum um Ísland (áhugi) 73% 31% 2015/2017 Fjöldi utanlandsferða (1000 ferðir) 85.268 +6.290 2016 Framtíðarspá í utanlandsferðum næstu þrjú ár (árlegur meðal vöxtur) 3% -0,4% 2018/2021 Meðaleyðsla á ferðalag ($) $1.323 +$44 2016 Árstíðarsveifluvísitala gistinátta á Íslandi (0=engin, 1=hámark) 0,23-17% 2016 Hlutfall gistinátta utan sumarmánaða 60% +5% 2016 Markaðshlutdeild (sætistala) í samanburðarlöndum 6-1 2016 Kaupmáttur (GDP per capita, PPP) $57.442 +$1.098 2016 Consumer Confidence Index 0,7-0,1 2016 Fjarlægð frá KEF flugvelli (km) 4.516 2017 Framboð á beinu flugi til Íslands (flugsæti) 2.699.273 +803.817 2017 Þrep 4: hluti af 10% bestu Þrep 3: Hluti af 25% bestu Þrep 2: Hluti af 50% bestu Þrep 1: Hluti af 50% verstu Framboð á beinu flugi utan sumarmánaða til Íslands (flugsæti) 1.753.324 +547.749 2017 FLOKKUR ALMENNT STYRKUR ÁKJÓSANLEIKI AÐGENGI Einkunn: 9 10 10 9 Sæti: 2 1 2 3 Hópur: A A A A
YoY Growth 2016 vs 2017 ICELAND TOURISM MARKET SNAPSHOT MARKETSHARE VS YOY GROWTH 2017 Market Visitor Arrivals YoY Growth USA 576.403 39% OTHER 390.933 37% UK 322.543 2% GERMANY 155.813 17% CANADA 103.026 24% FRANCE 100.374 18% CHINA 86.003 29% POLLAND 66.299 67% SPAIN 57.971 48% SWEDEN 56.229 3% DENMARK 53.240 7% THE NETHERLANDS 49.164 26% NORWAY 47.958-6% ITALY 40.865 29% SWITZERLAND 30.166 5% FINLAND 24.068 21% JAPAN 22.397 0% RUSSIA 11.819 87% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% GER Market Size: 7% UK Market Size: 15% OTHER Market Size: 18% 0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 NUMBER OF VISITORS TO ICELAND USA Market Size: 26% SOURCE: ICELANDIC TOURIST BOARD VISITOR ARRIVALS THROUGH KEF AIRPORT
Útflutningur til Bandaríkjanna
Billion ISK Aukið virði útflutnings 45 Total Export to the US in ISK 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Virði heildar útflutnings til Bandaríkjanna dróst saman milli ára 2016 og 2017 um 13% úr 41. 7 milljörðum í 36.2. Megin ástæðan er styrking ISK um 11.5% á sama tímabili Toppar 2006, 2008 og 2010 eru iðnvörur tæki og vörur til lækninga og flugvélar Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
Hlutdeild BNA af heildarútflutningi heldur áfram að aukast Vægi þorsks (9%) og ýsu (41%) heldur áfram aðaukast Ársframleiðsla á laxi ogsilungi eykst en útflutningur til BNA á laxi minnkar um 200 tonn, eykst um 80 tonn á silungi 16% Sjávarafurðir - Virði 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Þorskur Lax Ýsa Silungur
Billions ISK Miðgengi USD vs ISK 2003-2017 - ISK styrkist um 11.5% vs USD 140 120 100 123,59 131,85 116,07 122,23 120,67 122,04 125,05 106,78 116,75 80 60 76,76 70,12 62,86 69,78 64,02 88,07 40 20 0 25 Útflutningur sjávarafurða til Bandaríkjanna - Virði 20 15 10 5 - Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands & Seðlabanki Íslands
Þáttur sjávarafurða í útflutningi eykst Virði útflutnings dróst saman um 6.9% milli 2016/2017 en jókst um tæpt 1% í tonnum sama tímabil Það hefur ekki verið selt jafn mikið af sjávarafurðum í tonnum síðan 2005 Sjávarafurðir eru tæp 30% af virði útflutnings til BNA 2012, 52% 2013, 56% 2014, 60% 2014, 53% 2016 og 56% árið 2017 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Útflutningur sjávarafurða til Bandaríkjanna - Tonn Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
Í þúsundum tonna Í hundruðum tonna Sjávarafurðir - Útflutningur til Bandaríkjanna Mesti þorsk útflutningur síðan 2004 14 12 10 8 6 4 Þorskur Ýsa Ufsi 2 0 Útflutningur til Bandaríkjanna 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands Lax Silungur
Thousands Billions Fersk fiskur 14 Fersk útflutningur - Virði 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 Ferskfisk útflutningur - Tonn Virði útflutnings á ferskum fiski dróst saman um 5.5% milli 16/17 Magn útflutnings á ferskum fiski jókst um rúm 3.7% sama tíma USD féll um 11.5% gagnvart ISK (miðgengi) milli 16/17 2.000 0 Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands og Seðlabanki Íslands
1.200 Saltfiskur Saltað - heild í tonnum 1.000 800 600 400 200 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - - Útflutningur til Bandaríkjanna - Saltað og blautsaltað í tonnum Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands Þorskur Ufsi
Fisk olía Virði 2017 er 1.25 mlja 2.500 Fisk olía - Tonn 2.000 1.500 1.000 Fisk olía 500-2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
Samantekt Bandaríski markaðurinn er ekki lengur í lægð; hagvöxtur eykst, neytendur eru jákvæðir, atvinnuleysi dregst saman og kaupgeta og laun hækka. Markaðurinn er í mikilli nálægð við Ísland með góðar samgöngur og langa viðskiptasögu. Ísland stendur vel í huga neytenda í Bandaríkjunum Magn sjávarafurða eykst lítilega en gengi krónunnar áhrif á virði afurða sem dregst saman um rúm 5% Útflutningur frá Íslandi til Bandaríkjanna hrynur eftir aldamót 2000 og tekur ekki við sér fyrr en 2012 67% samdráttur í tonnum frá 2001-2010. 75% samdráttur í þorski og 76% í laxi en 80% aukning í sölu á bleikju. Sala á loðnu og síld hverfur og sala á humri er óveruleg. Stærsti hluti aukningar er sala á fersk fiski. Þorskur er til aftur á markaðnum og sala á laxi og silungi helst stöðu Það hefur ekki verið selt jafn mikið af sjávarafurðum í tonnum séð til Bandaríkjanna síðan 2005; hrunið milli 2005 og 2006 er að mestu vegna brotthvarfs loðnu. Sala á saltfiski (þorskur og ufsi) er nánast að hverfa eins og var árin 2005-2008
Seafood Expo North America Kaupstefnur í Kanada og BNA Seafood Expo North America Bás á sýningunni síðan 2012 8 fyrirtæki taka þátt í afurða básnum og 5 í tækni og þjónustu hluta sýningarinnar 2018 Markaðssamstarf með SeafoodSource Auglýsing á vefsíðu og fréttablaði SeafoodSource ásamt markpósti á 2600 sjávarútvegsfyrirtæki í Norður Ameríku Markpóstur til 1200 fyrirtækja í Norður Ameríku Eftirfylgni eftir sýningu Kaupstefnur Tækni og þjónustufyrirtæki Í bígerð er kaupstefna á austurströnd Kanada haust/vetur 2018
Í tonnum Milljónir ISK Vatn, áfengir drykkir og landbúnaðarvörur Útflutningur á vatni var 1.6 milljarður árið 2016 vs 1.3 árið 2017 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 25.000-20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 -
Í hundruðum tonna Milljónir ISK Útflutningur á áfengum drykkjum var næsta 0 kr. Árið 2011, 350 milljónir árið 2016 vs 276 árið 2016 (inn í tölunar vantar Reyka Vodka sem er flutt til U.K. og tappað þar. BNA er stærsti markaður Reyka Vodka) Þessi vöruflokkur hefur alla burði til að reynast Íslandi dýrmætur 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Í hundruðum tonna Í milljónum ISK Sala á lambakjöti eykst á milli ára 350 300 250 200 150 100 50-250 200 150 100 50
Í milljónum ISK Sala á mjólkurvörum hefur verið dræm en nýtt vörumerki Icelandic Provisions kemur sterkt inn 2016 en hefur framleiðslu í BNA 2017 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 -
Íslenskar afurðir standa vel í huga neytenda
TOP-OF-MIND ASSOCIATIONS Ice, snow, cold Nature, landscape Music, culture Other Other: 11% - Pure/clean/beautiful 10% - Green/warm 5% - Positive remarks 4% - Volcanoes 2% - Fish, seafood, whales What is the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Iceland? (%, open-end)
56% INTEREST IN PRODUCTS 48% 39% 37% 36% 31% 29% How interested are you in each of the following products from Iceland? (%, 8-10 on a 10-point scale)
How interested are you in seafood from Iceland? (%, 8-10 on a 10-point scale) Interest in SEAFOOD is correlated with age, gender, income, education, frequent travel, and the Outdoor Type.
SEAFOOD ORIGIN There is a slight decline in consumers interest in the origin of fish from all countries. Interest in the fish from Iceland is at 45% in 2016, as compared to 50% in 2014. How much would your opinion be affected by the origin of the fish? ( makes me really want the fish 8-10 on a 10-point scale)
OPINIONS OF SEAFOOD FROM ICELAND 48% of respondents say seafood from Iceland is FRESH and HIGH QUALITY, consistent with results from 2014 Which of the following describes what you think of seafood from Iceland?
Hlynur Guðjónsson hlynur@mfa.is +1 646 282 9360 / +354 545 7766 www.iceland.is/us/nyc