1 Caribbean Security Index V.13 No. 03 INTRODUCTION The Caribbean Security Index (CSI) was created as a tool to assist cruisers in assessing the risk from crime at ports of call in the Caribbean. The CSI provides a straightforward means of assessing risk in a given area as well as ensuing changes in those risks. The index is stated in a numerical scale (1-10) with mitigating factors listed. The index is derived from the examination of the relationship between crime, unemployment, levels of education and literacy. Additional factors include average income, distribution of income, presence of security, infrastructure, and past record/history of crimes in a given area. While nothing can foretell future incidents of crime in a given area, the above factors considered over a number of years can provide valuable insight as to what to expect and what to avoid. Tuned into, and monitoring, changes over time, with this update we have added a new category, bad behavior. While such threatening behavior may have been occurring all along, the reporting of several recent incidents represent a shift at least on the part of cruisers. Ratings for each country on a scale of 1-10 (10 -- safest) can be used as indicators of the factors mentioned above condensed into one number. Mitigating factors relate to extraordinary circumstances and may not appear in every case. Charts are included where helpful. Pie charts, for example, take into account the many harbors, marinas, and anchorages in some countries and appear for those countries where the distribution of types of crime by area is considered pertinent. Report by: Dr. Catherine Hebson Dr. Hebson holds a PhD in economic geography/regional economics from Rutgers University as well as degrees from Chestnut Hill College and the University of Wyoming. She has undertaken numerous analyses over the past thirty years; she has chaired economic development organizations and taught economics. NOTE: CSI ratings are not based solely on the number of reported crimes in a given area; they take into account many other diverse but relevant factors.
2 Contents INTRODUCTION... 1 OVERVIEW OF 2012... 4 NORTH QUADRANT... 10 GRAND CAYMAN... 10 SISTER ISLANDS (CAYMAN)... 10 CUBA... 10 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... 10 HAITI... 10 JAMAICA... 11 PUERTO RICO... 11 EAST QUADRANT (LESSER ANTILLES)... 11 VIRGIN ISLANDS... 11 VIRGIN ISLANDS BRITISH... 11 VIRGIN ISLANDS -- US... 11 EAST QUADRANT LEEWARD ISLANDS... 11 ANGUILLA... 11 ANTIGUA... 12 BARBUDA... 12 DOMINICA... 12 GUADELOUPE... 12 MONTSERRAT... 12 SABA... 12 ST BARTHELMY (ST BART S)... 12 ST KITTS... 13 NEVIS... 13 ST MARTIN/SINT MAARTEN... 13 STATIA... 13
3 EAST QUADRANT WINDWARD ISLANDS... 13 BARBADOS... 13 GRENADA... 13 MARTINIQUE... 13 ST LUCIA... 14 ST VINCENT... 14 GRENADINES... 14 TRINIDAD... 14 TOBAGO... 14 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT... 14 ARUBA... 14 BONAIRE... 15 CURACAO... 15 VENEZUELA... 15 SOUTHWEST QUADRANT... 15 BELIZE... 15 COLOMBIA... 15 COSTA RICA... 15 GUATEMALA... 16 HONDURAS... 16 HONDURAN ISLANDS... 16 MEXICO... 16 NICARAGUA... 16 PANAMA... 16 SAN BLAS ISLANDS... 16
4 OVERVIEW OF 2012 With the 2013 Miami Boat Show behind us and the spring Caribbean cruising season in full swing, or full sail, the Caribbean Security Index has completed its review of the entire year of 2012. By year end, there were 66 reported incidents.csi stresses reported as many stories circulate across the million square mile Caribbean without rising to the status of reported. There are many reasons for this, including lack of police presence, lack of police resources even with policed presence, apparent lack of police and/or government interest, and even uncertainty on the part of cruisers as to where they can make an official report. You may say, but there are some 15,000 cruisers spread throughout the million square mile Caribbean during cruising seasons, so what are 66 reported crime events in the course of a year? I say you are looking at the situation like a national crime rate when in fact it would be closer to reality to think in terms of islands and even areas of an island as individual cities, each with its own characteristics. Even if all 15,000 cruisers were distributed evenly at the same time across 50 islands, the cruiser population at each would be only 300. 15000 spread equally across the four quadrants would be fewer than 4000 per quadrant. The first two charts show the distributions of all reported crime against cruisers and reported violent crime by quadrant. If we pick the East Quadrant (Windwards) in 2010, Figure 1 shows overall reported crime there to be more than twice as high as in the Southeast Quadrant, while violent crime in the Southeast Quadrant was eight times that of the East Quadrant (Windwards). 80 Fig. 1. CRIME AGAINST CARIBBEAN CRUISERS, BY QUADRANT, 2008-2012, ALL CATEGORIES 70 60 50 40 30 20 NORTH EAST (VI & LEEWARDS) EAST (WINDWARDS) 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5 The following table shows the relationship between the total reported crimes against cruisers and violent crimes, again by quadrant. Again, it is important to remember that such things as dinghy thefts are under reported; we do not know by how much. We do know that scarce resources and lack of a region wide reporting structure are culprits. REPORTED TOTAL & VIOLENT CRIMES AGAINST CRUISERS: CARIBBEAN, 2008-2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NORTH EAST (VI/LEEWARDS) EAST (WINDWARDS) SOUTHEAST SOUTHWEST Total 3 8 34 36 6 Violent 0 0 2 12 1 Percent 0.0 0.0 5.9 33.3 16.7 Total 2 7 35 10 12 Violent 0 2 6 5 0 Percent 0.0 28.6 17.1 50.0 0.0 Total 0 8 70 28 7 Violent 0 1 1 8 2 Percent 0.0 12.5 1.4 28.6 28.6 Total 4 5 54 12 9 Violent 0 0 2 4 6 Percent 0.0 0.0 3.7 33.3 66.7 Total 19 13 21 7 18 Violent 0 1 1 2 9 Percent 0.0 7.7 4.8 28.6 50.0 Caribbean Security Index by FreeCruisingGuides.com VIOLENT CRIMES: Threats with weapons, actual attacks, and resulting injuries Violent crimes are recorded more reliably than lesser crimes simply because they are, well, violent, and the consequences for the victims can be dire. Bad news travels fast, and really bad news, it seems, at the speed of light. Really bad news has a long shelf life, which makes for dramatic cautionary tales. But what does violent crime against cruisers really look like? Those with violently criminal intentions, need potential victims and opportunity. Where are these lately? We know, first, that the Lesser Antilles, the acknowledged beaten path, is, for that very reason, top heavy with cruisers; and second, that the cruiser population shifts, and ebbs and flows, around the
6 seasons. At any given time there are likely to be far fewer in the other three quadrants. So, for the SW Quadrant to experience eight EIGHT violent crimes in 2012 is an extraordinary violent crime rate 14 12 10 8 6 4 Fig. 2. VIOLENT CRIMES AGAINST CARIBBEAN CRUISERS, BY QUADRANT, 2008-2012 NORTH EAST (VI & LEEWARDS) EAST (WINDWARDS) SOUTHEAST SOUTHWEST 2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Another way of looking at violent crime is in Figure 3, which shows total reported instances have declined slightly from 2008 to 2012. It also illustrates the relative positions of the different quadrants. 16 14 Fig. 3. VIOLENT CRIME, ALL CARIBBEAN QUADRANTS, 2008-2012 12 10 8 6 4 SW SE E-W E-L N 2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Caribbean Security Index by FreeCruisingGuides.com
7 Note in the Figure 3 legend above that the dark blue NORTH Quadrant is essentially invisible. This is because in all the years shown, the number of violent crimes against cruisers in the NORTH Quadrant countries/islands has been zero (although a rash of outboard motor thefts in Luperon DR during the year bumped up the rate of non-violent crime for the quadrant. Even the Leeward Islands portion of the E Quadrant (red) has become relatively tame. The differences are even more apparent when we break out the areas as one can see in Figures 2a through 4. Figure 3 shows that the number of violent crime incidents has really grown in only one quadrant: the SW (blue). Drilling down in the SW Quadrant, Figure 3 clearly illustrates its emergent notoriety. In fact, while the number of incidents there has risen, the prominent locations have changed. Honduras has grown increasingly violent starting in 2010 and Panama in the last two years has the unfortunate distinction of first place. (Figure 6) The dramatic drop in the numbers of both reported total crimes and violent crimes in the Windward Islands of the E Quadrant reflects the fact that Trinidad began to take its problems seriously, especially during hurricane season when Chaguaramas is packed with boats most of whose owners have headed home. Simultaneously, and perhaps surprisingly, the number has dropped in the SE Quadrant. (Figures 1 and 3) While the ABCs inhabit the same quadrant as Venezuela, it is solely on the basis of geography. Venezuela has been the violent crime capitol of the SE Quadrant, and, indeed, of the entire Caribbean. (Figure 5)
8 Beneath the surprise, however, is the fact that following several years of exceptional violence and at best tepid governmental response as well as ongoing political uncertainty in Venezuela, a constant drumbeat of warnings by cruisers for cruisers has apparently worked. The result has been fewer cruisers visiting the Venezuelan islands and mainland and therefore diminished opportunity for thieves and their ilk. The Orinoco delta appears to be the reigning pocket of opportunity, an explanation for which may be that cruisers visiting the delta are inadvertently making themselves unwelcome intruders in a known and dangerous area of drug trafficking. Figure 5 shows reported violent crime diminished in the Venezuelan islands, but continuing on the mainland. Venezuela has a long way to go. Since cruisers now visit the SW Quadrant in greater numbers, the opportunity center has shifted to the wild west. 7 6 Fig. 5 VIOLENT CRIME AGAINST CRUISERS, VENEZUELA, 2008-2012 5 4 3 VZ-Margarita-Porlormar VZ-LosTestigos VZ mainland 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Caribbean Security Index by FreeCruisingGuides.com
9 Figure 6 shows the changing distribution and, sadly, escalating number of reported violent crimes in the SW Quadrant. Every country is represented, and Honduras matched Panama. While the number and locations of reported violent crimes signal a need for caution, they do not capture the most disturbing trend, namely, the increasing degree of violence. 3 Fig. 6. VIOLENT CRIME AGAINST CRUISERS, SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, 2008-2012 2.5 2 1.5 1 Belize Colombia Guatemala Honduras Panama 0.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 BAD BEHAVIOR: Nothing new, but getting badder CSI has begun to track a phenomenon which is not new but several instances of which have been not only reported but discussed in public forum. This category is "bad behavior", which has displaced consequences. Unfortunately, the fallout from bad behavior doesn t impact the perpetrators; it harms economically the local community. Six incidents generated buzz in 2012. They took place in Haiti, Dominica, Barbados, St Vincent & the Grenadines, Belize, and Colombia. Reported bad behavior in 2012 ran the gamut from individual enterprise wherein someone demands payment for a spurious inspection with an implied or else, to official heavy handedness like the much discussed and unsettling encounter of a boat with Dominican officialdom. Basically all incidents were variations on extortion or attempted extortion. At the very least the experiences were unnerving and the targeted cruisers were left with a resolve to avoid those occasions, or locations, in the future. And the nautical grapevine being what it is, such news spreads far and wide. Bad behavior discourages visits by cruisers which in turn depresses local businesses that cater to cruisers. It is a problem that if experienced and exposed by cruisers must be addressed by the local community and authorities or they will be the losers. Cruisers vote with their sails.
10 No matter what kind of crime or bad behavior we discuss, it is evident from blogs and reports that the victims debrief themselves in order to better understand what they did right or wrong, and to share their experience and observations with fellow cruisers. This is good practice from the standpoint of cruisers. However, it ignores the facts that in the vast Caribbean where police presence is necessarily spotty, response time can be agonizingly slow, and local officials are sometimes in cahoots with the thugs, that the thugs become emboldened when the odds are tipped so heavily in their favor. While the number of reported violent crimes has declined slightly, the violence has escalated sharply. NORTH QUADRANT GRAND CAYMAN Ratings: In harbor 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Grand Cayman has marine infrastructure in North Sound, and around the island, an ample distribution of (free) mooring balls, well maintained and monitored. In addition, Grand Cayman continues to score high in all stability factors. SISTER ISLANDS (CAYMAN) Ratings: In harbor 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Cayman Brac sports a wharf; both Sisters enjoy ample (free) mooring balls, well maintained and monitored. Like Grand Cayman, the Sisters score high in all stability factors. CUBA Ratings: At marinas 9.8 Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Cuba has significant yacht traffic and there is virtually no crime against yachtsmen. Considerable work is underway to improve the infrastructure for cruisers. However, one may encounter random unmarked submerged obsolete structures; exercise caution. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 8.8 Mitigating factors Troublesome harbors for theft have been Luperon and Samana. HAITI Ratings: HAITI In harbors 5.8 Anchored out N/A Ile à Vache In harbor 9.6 Anchored out N/A
11 Mitigating factors The January 2011 earthquake and Haiti s chronic lack of rule of law are still a onetwo punch to the mainland. Ile à Vache has a long history of serving cruisers and is very sensitive to the importance of safety as witness the swift local reaction to two recent minor incidents. It should be considered reasonably safe. JAMAICA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 7.8 Mitigating factors If anchored out in less heavily trafficked areas, consider the rating to drop to 6.6. Do not anchor immediately E or W of Kingston. PUERTO RICO Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.0 Mitigating factors The Spanish Virgin Islands of Vieques and Culebra are very safe and offer free moorings as well. EAST QUADRANT (LESSER ANTILLES) VIRGIN ISLANDS VIRGIN ISLANDS BRITISH Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Reported crimes very low; take extra care in marinas on Tortola. VIRGIN ISLANDS -- US Ratings: At marinas 9.2 Anchored out 8.2 Mitigating factors Of 2 reported incidents in 2012, both were dinghy and outboard thefts, and both occurred on St. Thomas. If St. Thomas, St. Croix, and St. John s were rated separately, St. John s would rate higher, in part due to its extensive national park and attendant personnel. EAST QUADRANT LEEWARD ISLANDS ANGUILLA Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors No reported crime in past 6 years.
12 ANTIGUA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Marine infrastructure. There have been incidents of violent crime upland that warrant caution, but no reported cruiser crimes on the water in over 4 years. BARBUDA Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Laid back environment, safe. DOMINICA Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 7.6 Mitigating factors No marine infrastructure; a couple of anchorages. Reported violent assaults in Prince Rupert Bay at anchor occurred three years ago; no reported crimes in the last 4 years. Authorities can be heavy-handed, making for unpredictably unpleasant encounters. GUADELOUPE Ratings: At marinas 9.8 Anchored out 9.7 Mitigating factors Marine infrastructure is anchored by a government marina with 500 slips at Pointe à Piedre. Ile des Saints continues to be a safe mecca for cruising yachts in search of a French Mediterranean experience. Reporting history is one theft a year, 2009-2011, and just one burglary, in 2011. MONTSERRAT Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out n/a Mitigating factors The emerald isle s active volcano has discouraged yachtsmen for a number of years. However, facilities are under development on the west side to reverse that trend. No reported incidents. SABA Ratings: On moorings 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Yachts visit infrequently; no reported crime. ST BARTHELMY (ST BART S) Ratings: In harbor 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors This jewel of France has a strong but invisible police presence that discourages so much as a criminal thought, although 2012 s St. Bart s Bucket had a hole in it through which two unsecured dinghies and their outboards were taken.
13 ST KITTS Ratings: In harbor n/a Anchored out 9.4 Mitigating factors Old plantation island with light cruiser traffic. NEVIS Ratings: In harbor n/a Anchored out 9.5 Mitigating factors Old plantation island with light cruiser traffic. ST MARTIN/SINT MAARTEN Ratings: At marinas 8.8 Anchored out 8.5 Mitigating factors Lots of yachting activity; safe yachting hub. The presence of mega yachts makes for added security. Dinghies and their outboards were the targets of 4 reported thefts early in 2012; although unofficial sources claim as many as two dozen dinghy thefts occurred in the spring. NOTE: Probably best for now to avoid anchoring near airport in Simpson Bay due to isolated location. STATIA Ratings: In harbor n/a Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Mainly commercial harbor activity. Yachts visit infrequently; no reported crime. EAST QUADRANT WINDWARD ISLANDS BARBADOS Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Light cruiser activity. GRENADA Ratings: At marinas 8.8 Anchored out 7.8 RECOMMENDATION: Good place to visit generally with low crime; good yachting facilities and repair opportunities. Nice anchorages and harbors, in the company of many other cruisers. Mitigating factors Grenada has a small population with a high literacy rate and a long and profitable history of catering to cruisers. Reported 2012 thefts down slightly from 2011. MARTINIQUE Ratings: At marinas 9.5 Anchored out 9.5
14 Mitigating factors Extensive marine infrastructure; little reported crime to date. ST LUCIA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 7.0 Mitigating factors In harbor at marinas safe; anchoring out increasingly less safe. The country has been ill managed in recent years, although response time and effort by local authorities to crime has improved somewhat. ST VINCENT Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 5.6 Mitigating factors Land and seascape beautiful and popular with cruisers, but crimes against cruisers have a well documented record. GRENADINES Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 8.2 Mitigating factors Land and seascape beautiful and popular with cruisers, but crimes against cruisers in the form of boarding yachts day or night continue to plague cruisers. TRINIDAD Ratings: At marinas 9.2 Anchored out 8.0 TTSA 7.0 Mitigating factors For all intents and purposes, to speak of Trinidad is to speak only of Chagauramas as the sheer number of boats and concentrated service infrastructure make fort a target rich environment. Three major factors include: TTSA where mooring area is dark and extensive; hurricane season, when most boats are untenanted; and upland. Quality/ cost of marine facilities seems to be inversely related to amount of crime. Dedicated effort over the past few years has significantly reduced reported crime. TOBAGO Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 9.0 Mitigating factors Consistent history of safety for cruisers until first reported crimes surfaced in 2012. SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ARUBA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Country s investment in tourist industry, specifically big cruise ship traffic, translates into greater security and sense of same with a welcome spillover effect for cruisers.
15 BONAIRE Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors No crimes reported since 2010 in this naturalist s paradise. CURACAO Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.2 Mitigating factors Curacao safe for cruisers, but be alert for theft if anchored in Spanish Waters. VENEZUELA Ratings: In harbor 6.8 Anchored out 4.5 RECOMMENDATION: AVOID this country, especially the mainland Mitigating factors Venezuela is a country in chaos without a rule of law or a process that allows for redress in the event of a crime. The government had announced plans to appropriate yachts of Venezuelan citizens. Uncertainty surrounding government policies, coupled with high unemployment (nearing 50%), has led to a heightened level of criminal activity. CSI recommends complete avoidance of Venezuelan waters at this time despite diminished reported crime. See discussion and graphs in Overview. SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BELIZE Ratings: At marinas 9.4 Anchored out 8.8 Mitigating factors Light cruising traffic, mostly directed toward SCUBA diving. An especially violent crime in 2012 plus an instance of bad behavior earns Belize a caution. COLOMBIA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 8.6 Mitigating factors Strong Coast Guard presence and expansion of marine infrastructure has resulted in cruisers returning to this country; significantly reduced crime. Remote locations warrant extra vigilance. COSTA RICA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.6 RECOMMENDATION: VERY safe. Mitigating factors Light cruiser traffic.
16 GUATEMALA Ratings: At marinas 9.2 Anchored out 5.8 Mitigating factors VERY dangerous if anchoring out. Marinas lack sufficient security measures for a sure sense of safety. HONDURAS Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out See mitigating factors Mitigating factors Cruiser traffic is light along this coast. The few reported incidents of crime do include a violent attack resulting in murder. Lack of infrastructure is the basis for recommending continued avoidance of this coast at this time. HONDURAN ISLANDS (Utilia, Guanaja, Roatan and the Cayos Cochinos) Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 5.4 Mitigating factors Magnet for cruisers and divers; also, increasingly, for violent assault. Only mooring is permitted in the beautiful Cayos Cochinos, a national park. MEXICO Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.0 Mitigating factors Marinas on Isla Mujeres have been the preference of the cruising community for ease of entrance into and exit from the western end of the Caribbean. NICARAGUA Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out n/a Mitigating factors Light cruiser traffic on Miskito coast and lack of marine infrastructure. With an assault and robbery on the record in2012, know that it can be dangerous. PANAMA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 5.8 Mitigating factors New marina infrastructure. Most cruisers choose marina berthage for greater safety. SAN BLAS ISLANDS Ratings: At marinas n/a Anchored out 9.5 Mitigating factors Local chieftains keep anchorages safe.