CSI Update 2014.01 Page 1 of 16 Caribbean Security Index Update 2014.01 Introduction The Caribbean Security Index (CSI) at www.freecruisingguides.com was created as a tool to help cruisers assess the risk of crime at ports of call in the Caribbean. It provides a straightforward means of assessing the odds in a given area and tracking changes. The Index results from the examination of the relationship among crime, unemployment, education levels, and literacy; and related factors such as average income, income distribution, presence of security, infrastructure, and history of crime in a country/island. Probabilities affect us in everything we do, and the CSI is not just a listing of crimes in an area; it helps determine what the odds are. Responsible skippers play close attention to weather forecasts and take advantage of weather windows; the CSI allows skippers to assess crime windows. With this update, we provide an orientation and some background for the CSI. The Index is stated in a numerical scale of 1 to 10, with any mitigating factors noted. We work with reported incidents, which is rather a small subset of all crimes against cruisers when one factors in the abundant word of mouth accounts out there on the grapevine. There is precious little consistency in crime reporting and/or recording. We wish it were otherwise. One thing that stands out is the response to and communication of violent crimes (assault & robbery, and attempts). These are a shock to the system of the cruising community and the news travels far and fast. Thus we are more confident of the accuracy of these reports than of the number of lesser crimes which in many places seem to have become a more or less tolerated nuisance like mosquitoes. They're there; they're not going away; so you use an insect deterrent and sailor on. (The lesser crimes can be an expensive and time consuming nuisance, however.) The geographic framework used for CSI analysis is the Caribbean quadrant layout pioneered in A Thinking Man s Guide to Voyages South (Virgintino): NORTH quadrant -- the Greater Antilles plus Jamaica and the Cayman Islands; EAST quadrant -- the Lesser Antilles plus Trinidad and Tobago); SOUTHEAST quadrant -- the ABCs plus the Venezuelan mainland and islands; SOUTHWEST quadrant -- coastal countries from Colombia to Mexico. These divisions make navigational and cruising sense, and for CSI considerations as well. Figure 1 depicts the four quadrants or sectors of the million square mile Caribbean basin. The CSI, as well as Noonsite and the Safety and Security Net, look at four types of crimes:
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 2 of 16 Theft Involves neither weapons nor violence, but possibly boat boarding. Burglary Breaking into and entering a locked yacht while crew is away. Robbery Boarding of a yacht by one or more intruders, with weapons. Assault Injuries to and/or physical restraint of crew in the course of a robbery. They are not ham and eggs, or peanut butter and jelly, but assault and robbery frequently go together. When boarders are armed in even a primitive fashion (think machetes) and crew is aboard, injuries and even death can follow. We can add to all of these categories, attempts, or unsuccessful crimes. They can be unsuccessful for a variety of reasons, but where attempted theft or burglary are concerned, getting scared off by on board crew or third parties is the principal cause. Once again, these two categories do not involve weapons. Fig.1. The four quadrants or sectors of the Caribbean basin. The Caribbean Security Index is designed to assist cruisers in planning successful adventures while minimizing risks of falling victim to crime. The more incidents that are reported rather than whispered about, the sharper the picture will be. You can help fellow (and sister) cruisers by reporting incidents that you reliably know about: Catherine@freecruisingguides.com. To thank you when you send your first report, I ll mail you one of our distinctive CSI caps just include your land address with your report. Dr. Catherine Hebson, Director FreeCruisingGuides.com
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 3 of 16 Contents 2013 IN REVIEW... 5 NORTH QUADRANT... 9 GRAND CAYMAN... 9 SISTER ISLANDS (CAYMAN)... 9 CUBA... 9 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... 9 HAITI... 9 JAMAICA... 10 EAST QUADRANT (LESSER ANTILLES)... 10 VIRGIN ISLANDS... 10 BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... 10 US VIRGIN ISLANDS... 10 EAST QUADRANT LEEWARD ISLANDS... 10 ANGUILLA... 10 ANTIGUA... 10 BARBUDA... 11 DOMINICA... 11 GUADELOUPE... 11 MONTSERRAT... 11 SABA... 11 ST BARTHELMY (ST BART S)... 11 ST KITTS... 12 NEVIS... 12 ST MARTIN/SINT MAARTEN... 12 STATIA... 12 EAST QUADRANT - WINDWARD ISLANDS... 12 BARBADOS... 12
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 4 of 16 GRENADA... 12 MARTINIQUE... 13 ST LUCIA... 13 ST VINCENT... 13 GRENADINES... 13 TRINIDAD... 13 TOBAGO... 14 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT... 14 ARUBA... 14 BONAIRE... 14 CURACAO... 14 VENEZUELA... 14 SOUTHWEST QUADRANT... 15 BELIZE... 15 COLOMBIA... 15 COSTA RICA... 15 GUATEMALA... 15 HONDURAS... 15 HONDURAN ISLANDS... 15 MEXICO... 16 NICARAGUA... 16 PANAMA... 16 SAN BLAS ISLANDS... 16
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 5 of 16 2013 IN REVIEW If we look first at total reported incidents of all kinds by quadrant, the numbers in Table 1 are depicted in Figure 2. No matter which depiction you prefer, two things are immediately obvious: (1) Both the East Quad (Windwards section) and the Southeast Quad have registered the highest numbers over time; and (2) the total numbers dropped precipitously after 2010. Total Reported Incidents by Caribbean Quadrant, 2008-2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 NORTH QUAD 3 2 0 5 5 3 EAST QUAD-Leewards 6 7 9 6 8 6 EAST QUAD-Windwards 36 40 70 52 19 17 SOUTHEAST QUAD 38 10 29 10 7 3 SOUTHWEST QUAD 6 7 6 6 7 7 TOTAL 89 66 114 79 46 36 TABLE 1. TOTAL REPORTED INCIDENTS The overall drop was 68% while the East Quad-Windwards registered a 70% drop and the Southeast Quad a 90% drop. We ll look into this further on the next page. I note again that we are discussing reported incidents. Sometimes there is a notation on a report to the effect that the same thing happened a half dozen times last month. Fig. 2 TOTAL REPORTED INCIDENTS AGAINST CRUISERS IN THE CARIBBEAN, 2008-2013 by QUADRANT If we drill down in a quadrant to break out the types of crime committed and compare, say, the NORTH and the SOUTHEAST quandrants, we see very different reported crime profiles. The
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 6 of 16 numbers reported in the NORTH Quadrant (Greater Antilles) are low and somewhat random: Some years it s one thing; other years, it s another. The blue of Assault & Robbery is missing altogether. 6 4 2 0 NORTH 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Theft Att Theft Burgl Att Burgl Rob Att Rob Assault & Rob Assault Att Assault Vandal/ Bad Behav FIG. 3. TOTAL REPORTED CRIMES BY TYPE IN CARIBBEAN, 2008-2013. The SOUTHEAST Quadrant profile on the other hand shows Assault & Robbery in every year although the numbers overall are declining. The SOUTHEAST Quadrant includes only the ABCs and the Venezuelan mainland and islands. It is the latter two that have contributed violent crime to the profile. RE the charts, both are based on a compilation of reports of crime against cruisers since 2008, or for six years. For cumulative reported crimes (Chart #1), more of all kinds have been reported in the Venezuelan islands than for the (coastal) mainland. As for violent crimes alone over the last six years (Chart #2), in 2008 the count for the mainland exceeded that for the islands and in 2012 there was one on the (coastal) mainland and none in the islands. In the intervening years, the islands outpaced the mainland. And for the first half of 2013 there have been no violent crimes reported for either location. One could conclude from the numbers in Chart #2 alone that violent crimes in the Venezuelan islands and on the coastal mainland are declining/these places are becoming safer for cruisers. The question is why we see this, and the numbers alone are not the answer. 16 SOUTHEAST Theft 14 Att Theft 12 Burgl 10 Att Burgl 8 Rob 6 Att Rob 4 Assault & Rob 2 Assault 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Att Assault FIG. 4. TOTAL REPORTED CRIMES BY TYPE IN CARIBBEAN, 2008-2013.
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 7 of 16 The attitude articulated by Chavez toward the rich, including "rich" yacht owners, set the tone from the top down, and created enormous uncertainty about "official" treatment of foreigners in many circumstances. "Rich" is relative. His policies up-ended the economy so that his successor, Maduro, facing overwhelming challenges, has chosen to ramp up the Chavez approach. The result is that any pretense of observing the rule of law is just that. Conversations with coastal mainland marina people confirm that Venezuelan-owned yachts have fled to other ports, and both the numbers of transient yachts and the profitability of their marinas have declined precipitously. One can liken the Venezuelan situation to any predator-prey population cycle: When the prey population expands, predators live the good life -- until they decimate or drive off the bulk of the prey. Then the predator population declines in the face of the now scarce food source as they starve or migrate elsewhere in search of prey. And the cycle resumes. A picture is worth a thousand words.if we drill down another level and maintain a consistent scale, reported crimes against cruisers along the Venezuelan mainland vs. in the Venezuelan islands, in separate graphs, look like this (Figures 5 and 6). The declines are not a surprise. 6 Venezuelan mainland 5 4 3 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 FIG. 5. VARIOUS CRIMES AGAINST CRUISERS, 2008-2013 (legend as in Fig. 6) 9 8 Venezuelan islands Theft 7 Att Theft 6 Burgl 5 Att Burgl 4 Rob 3 Att Rob 2 Assault & Rob 1 Assault 0 Att Assault 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 FIG. 6. VARIOUS CRIMES AGAINST CRUISERS, 2008-2013
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 8 of 16 And if we keep drilling, we can isolate the violent crimes, Assault & Robbery, Assault, and Attempted Assault in the same way. 6 5 Venezuelan mainland 7 6 5 Venezuelan islands 4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 Assault & Rob Assault Att Assault 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Fig. 7.Violent crimes, 2008-2013 Fig. 8. Violent crimes, 2008-2013 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 For the past several years many people reporting violent crimes have added cautionary suggestions. As noted above, news of violent crime travels fast and far. These crimes surface quickly and in detail, whether or not the victim wishes to be public. From CSI research, if crime is down in Venezuela whether on the mainland or in the islands as shown in Figures 5 and 6, it is not because the area is safer (the underlying political and economic instability has not changed). It is because the "prey population", the cruising community, is avoiding, or shunning, these waters, and there are fewer opportunities for the predators. In other words, avoidance works. Sometimes a skipper has to weigh options of which none is a good choice. But by and large cruising sailors get to vote with their boat. The best way to starve this beast is to avoid high probability crime areas.
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 9 of 16 NORTH QUADRANT GRAND CAYMAN Ratings: In harbor 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Grand Eayman has marine infrastructure in North Sound, and around the island, an ample distribution of (free) mooring balls, well maintained and monitored. In addition, Grand Cayman continues to score high in all stability factors. SISTER ISLANDS (CAYMAN) Ratings: In harbor 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Cayman Brac sports a wharf, both Sisters enjoy ample (free) mooring balls, well maintained and monitored. Like Grand Cayman, the Sisters score high in all stability factors. CUBA Ratings: At marinas 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Cuba has significant yacht traffic and there is virtually no crime against yachtsmen. Considerable work is underway to improve the physical infrastructure for cruisers. However, one may encounter random, unmarked, submerged, obsolete structures; exercise navigational caution. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out.8.8 Mitigating factors Troublesome harbors for theft have been Luperon and Samana. HAITI Ratings: HAITI In harbor 5.8 Anchored out N/A Ile à Vache In harbor 9.6 Anchored out N/A Mitigating factors The December 2010 earthquake and Haiti s chronic lack of rule of law are still a one-two punch to the mainland. Ile à Vache has a long history of serving cruisers and is very sensitive to the importance of safety as witness the swift local reaction to two recent minor incidents. It should be considered reasonably safe.
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 10 of 16 JAMAICA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 7.8 Mitigating factors If anchored out in less heavily trafficked areas, consider the rating to drop to 6.6. Do NOT anchor immediately E or W of Kingston. EAST QUADRANT (LESSER ANTILLES) VIRGIN ISLANDS BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Reported crimes very low; take extra care in marinas on Tortola. US VIRGIN ISLANDS Ratings: At marinas 9.2 Anchored out 8.2 Mitigating factors If St Thomas, St Croix, and St John s were rated separately, St John s would rate higher, in part due to its extensive national park and associated rangers and staff. EAST QUADRANT LEEWARD ISLANDS ANGUILLA Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors No reported crime in past 7 years. ANTIGUA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Marine infrastructure. There have been incidents of violent crime upland that warrant caution on shore, but no reported cruiser crime on the water last year.
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 11 of 16 BARBUDA Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Laid back environment, safe. DOMINICA Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 7.8 Mitigating factors No marine infrastructure, a couple of anchorages. Reported violent assaults in Prince Rupert Bay at anchor occurred 5 years ago; no reported crimes in the last 5 years. Authorities can be heavy-handed, making for unpredictable unpleasant encounters. GUADELOUPE Ratings: At marinas 9.8 Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Marine infrastructure is anchored by a government marina with 500 slips at Pointe a Piedre. Ile des Saints continues to be a safe Mecca for cruising yachts in search of a French Mediterranean experience. Reporting history is one theft a year, 2009-2011, and just one burglary, in 2011. MONTSERRAT Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out N/A Mitigating factors The emerald isle s active volcano has discouraged yachtsmen for a number of years. However, facilities are under development on the west side to reverse that trend. No reported incidents. SABA Ratings: On moorings 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors Yachts visit infrequently; no reported crime. ST BARTHELMY (ST BART S) Ratings: In harbor 9.8 Anchored out 9.8 Mitigating factors This jewel of France has a strong but invisible police presence that discourages so much as a criminal thought, although in 2012 St Bart s Bucket had a hole in it through which 2 unsecured dinghies and their outboards were taken.
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 12 of 16 ST KITTS Ratings: In harbor N/A Anchored out 9.0 Mitigating factors Old plantation island with light cruiser traffic. A 6 year string of no reported crime was broken in 2013 with an assault & robbery. NEVIS Ratings: In harbor N/A Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Old plantation island with light cruiser traffic. ST MARTIN/SINT MAARTEN Ratings: At marinas 8.8 Anchored out 8.5 Mitigating factors Lots of yachting activity; safe yachting hub. The presence of mega yachts makes for added security. Dinghies and their outboards were the targets of 4 reported thefts early in 2012; although unofficial sources claim as many as 2 dozen dinghy thefts occurred in the spring. NOTE: Probably best for now to avoid anchoring in the isolated area of Simpson Bay near airport. STATIA Ratings: In harbor N/A Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Mainly commercial harbor activity. Yachts visit infrequently; no reported crime. EAST QUADRANT - WINDWARD ISLANDS BARBADOS Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Light cruiser activity. GRENADA Ratings: At marinas 8.7 Anchored out 7.8
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 13 of 16 RECOMMENDATION: Good place to visit generally, with low crime; good yachting facilities and repair opportunities. Nice anchorages and harbors, in the company of many other cruisers. Mitigating factors Grenada has a small population with a high literacy rate and a long and profitable history of catering to cruisers. Reported 2013 thefts up slightly from 2012. MARTINIQUE Ratings: At marinas 9.4 Anchored out 9.5 Mitigating factors Extensive marine infrastructure; little reported crime to date. ST LUCIA Ratings: At marinas 9.5 Anchored out 7.0 Mitigating factors In harbor at marinas safe; anchoring out increasingly less safe. The country has been il managed in recent years, although response time to crime and effort by local authorities has improved somewhat. ST VINCENT Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 5.6 Mitigating factors Land and seascape beautiful and popular with cruisers, but crimes against cruisers are well documented. GRENADINES Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 8.0 Mitigating factors Land and seascape beautiful and popular with cruisers, but crimes against cruisers are well documented. TRINIDAD Ratings: At marinas 9.3 Anchored out 8.0 TTSA 7.0 Mitigating factors Trinidad is Chagauramas. The sheer number of boats and concentrated service infrastructure make for a target rich environment for 3 major reasons: TTSA where mooring area is dark and extensive; hurricane season, when most boats are untenanted; and upland. Inverse relationship between quality/cost of marine facilities and the amount of crime. That said, a very dedicated effort over the last few years has significantly reduced reported crime.
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 14 of 16 TOBAGO Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 9.0 Mitigating factors Consistent history of safety for cruisers until first reported crimes surfaced in 2012. SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ARUBA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors Country s investment in tourist industry, specifically big cruise ship traffic, translates into greater security and sense of same with a welcome spillover effect for cruisers. BONAIRE Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.6 Mitigating factors No crimes reported since 2011 in this naturalist s paradise. CURACAO Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.4 Mitigating factors Curacao safe for cruisers, but be alert for theft if anchored in Spanish Waters. VENEZUELA Ratings: Mainland At marinas 6.6 Anchored out 4.5 Islands At marinas 6.6 Anchored out 4.3 RECOMMENDATION: AVOID THIS COUNTRY, especially the mainland. Mitigating factors Venezuela continues its spiral into chaos with neither rule of law nor a process that allows for redress in the event of a crime. Continuing political turmoil plus high unemployment has produced a heightened level of criminal activity. Cruisers have abandoned Venezuelan waters in droves causing a counter intuitive reduction in crime until this year.
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 15 of 16 SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BELIZE Ratings: At marinas 9.4 Anchored out 8.8 Mitigating factors Light cruising traffic, mostly there for SCUBA diving. An especially violent crime in 2012 plus an instance of bad behavior earns Belize a caution. COLOMBIA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 8.4 Mitigating factors Strong Coast Guard presence and expansion of marine infrastructure has resulted in cruisers returning to this county; significantly reduced crime. Remote locations, though, warrant extra vigilance given one violent crime per year for 3 years. COSTA RICA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.6 RECOMMENDATION: Very safe. Mitigating factors Light cruiser traffic. GUATEMALA Ratings: At marinas 9.4 Anchored out 5.8 Mitigating factors VERY dangerous if anchoring out. Marinas lack sufficient security measures for a sure sense of safety. HONDURAS Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out N/A Mitigating factors Cruiser traffic is light along this coast. The few reported incidents of crime do include a violent attack resulting in murder. Lack of infrastructure is the basis for recommending continued avoidance of this coast at this time. HONDURAN ISLANDS Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 5.6
CSI Update 2014.01 Page 16 of 16 Mitigating factors Magnet for cruisers and divers; also, increasingly, for violent assault. Only mooring is permitted in the beautiful Cayos Cochinos, a national park. MEXICO Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 9.0 Mitigating factors Marinas on Isla Mujeres have been the preference of the cruising community for ease of entrance into and exit from the western end of the Caribbean. NICARAGUA Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out N/A Mitigating factors Light cruiser traffic on Miskito coast and lack of marine infrastructure. With an assault and robbery on record, know that it can be dangerous. PANAMA Ratings: At marinas 9.6 Anchored out 6.0 Mitigating factors New marina infrastructure. Most cruisers choose marina berthage for greater safety. SAN BLAS ISLANDS Ratings: At marinas N/A Anchored out 9.3 Mitigating factors Local chieftains keep anchorages safe.